11/16 Churchill Downs full card analysis w/comments

[letswastemoney]

This will take me a while, so I'll take it race by race.

Race 1

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=1&param1=134871&param2=748&param3=1088)

1) Platinum Blue (4/1) - Nothing that special to note here. 2-0-0-0 at Churchill.

2) Hidden Heat (15/1) - She lost slow paced races at Indiana Downs. No chance here.

3) Maybelle Slew (5/2) - This speedy mare has a trainer that hits at 29% for the year. The deserving favorite.

4) Sharp Finishh (9/2) - The win last time was good, but it was on a sloppy track. There is only a 20% chance of rain for Saturday. Maybe she hits the board here?

5) Simply Dashing (15/1) - The last start at Indiana Downs was bad. It would be a surprise to see her run well here.

6) Another Trick (5/1) - She ran some good races before. But, note a couple of these have beaten her already.

7) Wildie (9/2) - Her trainer wins at 16% out of a sample of 271. Not bad. A second or third seems like the limit.

8) Missing Sefa (5/1) - Those last few starts at Indiana Downs are much better than they look considering she was pace compromised, and note she won her last start at Churchill Downs. She even defeated Maybelle Slew in that race. It is a slight concern she is 11 years old, so it's not like there will be improvement, but her best race can win.
______

Top Pick: #8 Missing Sefa (5/1)

Next Best: #3 Maybelle Slew (5/2)

Other Contenders: #4 Sharp Finishh (9/2), #6 Another Trick (5/1), #7 Wildie (9/2)

[letswastemoney]

Race 2

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=2&param1=269742&param2=1496&param3=1088)

1) Jardenia (5/2) - Her record is pretty good at this track, so include her if there is room. But, she's not the best in here by any means.

2) Kaminari (6/1) - Going from an optional claimer for 80k to being put up for sale for 25k is a pretty steep drop. She may slip away with the lead and never look back.

3) Katy Lied (10/1) - Her last start at Churchill Downs on dirt was a pace compromised situation. This mare has a great chance to finish second or third at a price.

4) La Malaguena (6/1) - 3-1-1-0 at Churchill Downs, but the competition is steep here. Pass.

5) Slander (8/1) - Her last start at Churchill Downs was disappointing. 2-0-0-0 record on this track also tells me to stay away.

6) Sense of a Woman (7/2) - Being claimed four times in a row is ALWAYS a good sign. The 2-0-0-0 record at Churchill is a concern, but unlike Slander, I'll give this one a chance because of the multiple claims angle.

7) Annafromindiana (15/1) - It is not a drop in class if she's going from Indiana Downs to Churchill Downs. Pass.

8) Sean's Silverdancer (3/1) - The dirt start two back is a little puzzling, but either of her last two Churchill efforts would be good enough to take this. The top pick.
______

Top Pick: #8 Sean's Silverdancer (3/1)

Next best: #2 Kaminari (6/1)

Contenders: #1 Jardenia (5/2), #3 Katy Lied (10/1), #6 Sense of a Woman (5/2)

[letswastemoney]

Honestly, I'd rather watch 24 hours of fishing on TV than continuously handicap these awful 5 furlong turf sprints. But, racing secretaries will card them no matter what.

Race 3

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=3&param1=404613&param2=2244&param3=1088)

1) Clever Gretel (10/1) - 2-0-1-0 at 5 furlongs. Use underneath.

1A) Songlyrics (10/1) - 1-0-0-0 at 5 furlongs. No.

2) Kicker (6/1) - 1-0-0-0 at 5 furlongs. No.

2B) Dream Softly (6/1) - Decent synthetic win, but the entry will kill the price. No.

3) Lemon Hero (7/2) - 2-0-0-0 at 5 furlongs. No.

4) Ms Hoochie Coochie (6/1) - 2-0-1-0 at 5 furlongs. Maybe.

5) Happy Everafter (15/1) - 1-1-0-0 at 5 furlongs, but it was at Arlington. No.

6) Bye Bye Bunting (20/1) - No turf tries at 5 furlongs, but she bombed in her only effort at 5 1/2 F on synthetic, and it was at a low class at Arlington. No.

7) Spanish Academy (15/1) - Her 5 furlong efforts on Woodbine synthetic are not that great. No.

8) Anna Pavlova (5/1) - Super 5 1/2 furlong turf win at Fairgrounds, and she was pace compromised while doing so. Top pick.

9) Terfaashah (12/1) - Synthetic effort at Keeneland was okay, but she had a setup. No.

10) Laser Cat (5/1) - 1-1-0-0 record at 5 furlongs. The win came on turf at Tampa Bay. Speed figure is high. Next best.

11) Holiday Drama (8/1) - No sprint experience.

12) Miz Minnie Moon (30/1) - She ran well at 6 furlongs on synthetic at Keeneland. This is a turf race. But, note she bombed her two dirt tries. She is probably going to like turf and at 30/1, it's a good price to find out.
______

Top Pick: #8 Anna Pavlova (5/1)

Next Best: #10 Laser Cat (5/1)

Other Contenders: #1 Clever Gretel (10/1), #4 Ms Hoochie Coochie (6/1), #12 Miz Minnie Moon (30/1)

[letswastemoney]

Race 4

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=4&param1=1088&param2=2992&param3=539484)

1) Dr. Ireland (20/1) - First time lasix might help, but he just seems slow.

2) Notaninja (12/1) - Cool name. He can get a piece in this weak field.

3) Ephram (4/1) - He might find himself on the lead by default. Note the steep class drop too.

4) Mr Supernova (12/1) - It's tough to take an 0 for 11 horse seriously, but use underneath.

5) April Punch (50/1) - She packs a good late punch. Don't discount underneath.

6) Ham I Am (50/1) - 0 for 27, but these types tend to clunk their way into the money.

7) Political Man (4/1) - He owns some high speed figures, but they were pace aided. Most likely, use underneath, but he might win.

8) Paciencia Y Fe (6/1) - She needs to improve on that 2-0-0-0 Churchill record. Use underneath, if at all.

9) Perfect Prince (15/1) - Despite a perfect setup for his style, he failed last time. Pass.

10) A Better Tomorrow (7/2) - The biggest question mark is whether he remains the same horse after being claimed away from Michael Maker.

11) Collins (20/1) - He needs to improve. The Aug. 30 race isn't terrible. Tough call.

12) Optionality (4/1) - The Ramseys own this one, so use him.

13) Diamond Drop (15/1) - Use in fourth slot of superfecta, if at all.

14) Magical Disguise (10/1) - A threat to close from the clouds and win, if he draws in.
______

Top Pick: #3 Ephram (4/1)

Next Best: #10 A Better Tomorrow (7/2)

Contenders: #2 Notaninja (12/1), #7 Political Man (4/1), #10 A Better Tomorrow (7/2), #12 Optionality (4/1), #14 Magical Disguise (10/1)

Use in third or fourth slots of verticals: #4 Supernova (12/1), #5 April Punch (50/1), #6 Ham I Am (50/1), #8 Paciencia Y Fe (6/1), #11 Collins (20/1), #13 Diamond Drop (15/1)

[letswastemoney]

Race 5

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=5&param1=1088&param2=3740&param3=674355)

1) Capriani (6/1) - The trainer isn't that good.

2) Candiebelle (10/1) - Needs more speed.

3) Flirty Birdie (50/1) - No.

4) Peggy's a Ten (5/1) - I like the early speed. She can win.

5) Silver Exchange (6/1) - The trainer stinks.

6) Tiz Resplendent (4/1) - The switch to dirt might help. Maybe.

7) She'll Get Even (10/1) - Dirt efforts aren't terrible. Maybe.

8) Grand Dame (5/1) - Speed figures are better than these, but she tends to find a way to lose.

9) Soraya (50/1) - No.

10) Divine Creation (20/1) - Use underneath. Late kick isn't bad.

11) Sunbaked (6/1) - Expensive filly might improve on the drop.

12) Creation (6/1) - Steep drop. Average speed figure doesn't matter because it was in early part of the year. She could be more mature now. Top pick.
______

Top Pick: #12 Creation (6/1)

Next Best: #4 Peggy's a Ten (5/1)

Contenders: #6 Tiz Resplendent (6/1), #7 She'll Get Even (10/1), #8 Grand Dame (5/1), #11 Sunbaked (6/1)

Use Underneath: #10 Divine Creation (20/1)

[letswastemoney]

Race 6

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=6&param1=1088&param2=4488&param3=809226)

1) Q Two (10/1) - Not impossible. Might duel with entrymate.

1A) Tall Boy (10/1) - Don't discount. The second dam is Quiet Dance.

2) Thunder Run (3/1) - A complete mystery on dirt.

3) Bro Rodrigeaux (4/1) - The synthetic loss doesn't concern me. His effort two starts back against Honor Code would win this.

4) Match Up (10/1) - Might improve with lasix.

5) Ship to Shore (15/1) - Going from maiden claiming to maiden is never a profitable angle.

6) Dynamic Impact (7/2) - He can win with the right setup, but is more likely underneath.

7) Bylia (30/1) - Doesn't have a chance.

8) Sheikinator (4/1) - A complete mystery on dirt.

9) Quick Indian (6/1) - Solid debut, only needs mild improvement.
______

Top Pick: #3 Bro Rodrigeaux (4/1)

Next Best: #9 Quick Indian (6/1)

Contenders: #1 Q Two / #1A Tall Boy (10/1), #2 Thunder Run (3/1), #4 Match Up (10/1), #6 Dynamic Impact (7/2), #8 Sheikinator (4/1)

[letswastemoney]

I expected to be farther along, but doing every race is extremely time consuming. I should be done by tomorrow morning if people are interested in all my thoughts on every race.

[sammy the sage]

I've enjoyed reading so far...good job!

ps...I'm not the only one...just look at the thread hits :ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

Race 7

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=7&param1=1088&param2=5236&param3=944097)

1) Golden Sabre (5/1) - He won over River Seven while overcoming a slow pace. I'm not sure if he's classy enough to win this one. But, no horse has ever finished ahead of him on turf, and he should work out a ground saving trip from here, so let's label him the top choice.

2) Layton Register (20/1) - Formidable Heart has beaten this one three times, and they meet again here. Not a good sign.

3) Ruler of Love (15/1) - Expect this one to cause trouble for any front runners, but he tends to fade.

4) River Seven (5/1) - That super high speed figure will stick out on nearly everyone's numbers. It came on wet turf, and for whatever reason I feel like closers have more trouble on wet turf than on firm, while a speed type like this one has an easier time, so I don't know if I want to give him points for that. Nevertheless, he's a contender.

5) Moro Tap (8/1) - He failed in both graded stakes efforts, and in his last three wins he received a perfect pace setup. Pass.

6) Winning Cause (4/1) - None of his starts except for a couple of lousy sprint efforts are that bad. He should kick in. It's a matter of whether there is enough pace.

7) Formidable Heart (20/1) - That is a nice win last time at Keeneland, but this trainer either is one of the few that doesn't cheat, or he stinks at training. Use underneath.

8) Braveman (50/1) - Nice second in a pace compromised situation last time, but note that TimeformUS picked this one and TimeformUS has the power to kill price by now. Don't be surprised if the odds dip below 20/1.

9) Kaigun (8/1) - His maiden win is nice as he overcame a pace compromised situation. Both of his stakes efforts were terrible. Tough call.

10) Dorsett (8/1) - His failure on soft turf last time is forgivable. Beyond that, he has run solid race after solid race. Note, there was no pace to work with at Del Mar, so that is forgivable too. Upset special.

11) O'Prado Ole (15/1) - He had perfect setups in his last two starts, according to BRIS numbers. Pass.

12) Frac Daddy (6/1) - He will be overbet on name recognition alone. The flop in the Saranac is forgivable considering he was pace compromised.

13) Central Banker (10/1) - The loss on synthetic is forgivable as he was pace compromised. All of his turf starts look good, minus his lack of experience at longer distances. His one effort at a route was not the best, but it came on dirt and against Goldencents.
______

Top Pick: #1 Golden Sabre (5/1)

Next Best: #10 Dorsett (8/1)

Contenders: #4 River Seven (5/1), #6 Winning Cause (4/1), #8 Braveman (50/1), #9 Kaigun (8/1), #12 Frac Daddy (6/1)

Use Underneath: #7 Formidable Heart (20/1)

[letswastemoney]

Race 8

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=8&param1=1088&param2=5984&param3=1078968)

1) Fools Road (30/1) - A mystery on dirt. I'll take a wait and see approach.

2) Borsegiattore (6/1) - I like the tactical speed. Maybe he steals the race if no one wants to challenge.

3) I'mbetterthangood (3/1) - He was pace compromised for his running style in his debut, but lack of speed types on dirt generally are at a disadvantage. Second Best.

4) H Town Brown (5/1) - His sibling is D'Funnybone, a graded stakes winner on dirt, but Big Brown is a turf/synthetic sire. Contender, but his future is likely on synthetic.

5) Ches Stein (20/1) - A mystery on dirt too.

6) Divine View (5/1) - The sibling to Divine Ambition has a high percentage win-early sire, Divine Park. Contender.

7) Chance of Reign (15/1) - No.

8) Money Fan (6/1) - This 170k colt deserves one more shot, although he should have liked the polytrack at Keeneland and didn't show up. One more chance I guess.

9) Cry Summation (50/1) - The lasix might help, but probably not.

10) High Ransom (12/1) - He improved noticeably on turf, so no.

11) Gambler's Ghost (5/1) - He may have a future on synthetic with Ghostzapper as the sire. Nevertheless, still a contender here too.

12) Hat of Jacks (15/1) - Nice effort last time on dirt, although it came at Indiana Downs. Yet another contender to add to puzzle.
______

Top Pick: #2 Borsegiattore (6/1)

Next Best: #3 I'mbetterthangood (3/1)

Other Contenders: #4 H Town Brown (5/1), #6 Divine View (5/1), #8 Money Fan (6/1), #11 Gambler's Ghost (5/1), #12 Hat of Jacks (15/1)

[letswastemoney]

Hard race.

Race 9

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=9&param1=6732&param2=1088&param3=1213839)

1) Emotional Kitten (4/1) - One of the weaker Kittens. Pass.

2) Quality Kitten (15/1) - Monster late pace figure on synthetic last time, although it came with her on the lead setting an easy pace. She may work out a good trip from here and the Ramseys own her, so that is reason enough for some. With only two starts on her belt, despite the fact she had it easy last time, maybe she takes a step forward. Overlay at 15/1.

3) Zero Game (30/1) - She won with a perfect setup at Laurel. Don't expect the same.

4) I'm Already Sexy (4/1) - She was pace compromised in the Keeneland race. Top pick.

5) Effie Trinket (10/1) - Doesn't look fast enough on paper.

6) Keening (20/1) - Not impressed with lone turf start.

7) Allegheny Angel (50/1) - She is probably better than 50/1. The 4-2-1-1 record on turf is nice.

8) Nellie Cashman (9/2) - The odds will be low for this filly. She needs a perfect setup and may get one. Tough to read.

9) Remember Then (12/1) - This synthetic monster lacks the same kick on turf.

10) Frivolous (15/1) - She is not good enough.

11) Praia (12/1) - She ran some okay races, but I don't see a win happening here.

12) Dance Again (30/1) - Those Woodbine races aren't terrible. Just not good enough though either.

13) Tapicat (7/2) - Expect Mike Smith to send hard, which will not be easy from up here.

14) E B Ryder (30/1) - Outclassed.
______

Top Pick: #4 I'm Already Sexy (4/1)

Next Best: #2 Quality Kitten (15/1)

Other Contenders: #7 Allegheny Angel (50/1), #8 Nellie Cashman (9/2), #13 Tapicat (7/2)

[letswastemoney]

Race 10

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=10&param1=7480&param2=1088&param3=1348710)

1) Sluiceway (12/1) - There are some things to like. She was just outclassed last time and pace compromised in her dirt starts before that. The lack of speed is a concern.

2) Cobra Kiss (20/1) - The early speed is nice, but this isn't the speed filly to take.

3) Bread Line (10/1) - A minor award is the ceiling.

4) Blissful Gold (5/1) - This filly holds the high early pace figures and should hound Cobra Kiss from the beginning, before slowly taking over. Top pick.

5) Strawberry Quake (20/1) - 2% trainer out of 42 starters. Pass.

6) Borrowed Money (12/1) - 2-0-0-0 at Churchill Downs.

7) Sharp n Pretty (20/1) - At least she has a win over this track. Ignore the two synthetic flops. Next best.

8) Mi Ermanna Tina (15/1) - At least she has a win over this track. Usually, not more than one horse survives a pace duel, so let's assume Blissful Gold will fry her.

9) Emma's Holy Bee (20/1) - The steep drop probably won't help that much. Trainer is 0 for 17.

10) Ouiser (9/5) - This trainer wins at 26% out of 151 starters. An obvious contender for top honors.

11) Jumping Justice (8/1) - This filly packs a late punch. It will not be a surprise if she wins, or clunks up for a minor share.
______

Top Pick: #4 Blissful Gold

Next Best: #10 Ouiser (9/5)

Other Contenders: #1 Sluiceway (12/1), #7 Sharp n Pretty (20/1), #11 Jumping Justice (8/1)

[sammy the sage]

Excellent work...hoping mother Nature doesn't mess ya up...as liable to have yielding or no turf...and/ or mud/good surface...w/weather later in the card as well as what went thru today...OUCH!

[olddaddy]

Hope you are rewarded for your hard work.

[Robert Fischer]

Hey - this guy just gave me a 50-1 winner Helen Pitts horse @ Churchill the other day over private message.

I agree with Sammy.
Thank you for posting this.

RF

I've enjoyed reading so far...good job!

ps...I'm not the only one...just look at the thread hits :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Race 6

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=6&param1=1088&param2=4488&param3=809226)

1) Q Two (10/1) - Not impossible. Might duel with entrymate.

1A) Tall Boy (10/1) - Don't discount. The second dam is Quiet Dance.

2) Thunder Run (3/1) - A complete mystery on dirt.

3) Bro Rodrigeaux (4/1) - The synthetic loss doesn't concern me. His effort two starts back against Honor Code would win this.

4) Match Up (10/1) - Might improve with lasix.

5) Ship to Shore (15/1) - Going from maiden claiming to maiden is never a profitable angle.

6) Dynamic Impact (7/2) - He can win with the right setup, but is more likely underneath.

7) Bylia (30/1) - Doesn't have a chance.

8) Sheikinator (4/1) - A complete mystery on dirt.

9) Quick Indian (6/1) - Solid debut, only needs mild improvement.
______

Top Pick: #3 Bro Rodrigeaux (4/1)

Next Best: #9 Quick Indian (6/1)

Contenders: #1 Q Two / #1A Tall Boy (10/1), #2 Thunder Run (3/1), #4 Match Up (10/1), #6 Dynamic Impact (7/2), #8 Sheikinator (4/1)

I like your picks.

:8: Sheikinator = very talented potential stakes horse.

:1a: Tall Boy = Big talented well meant horse , ran against the grain last out and is a big price.

:6: Dynamic Impact = good stamina, not extremely talented. His finish (should be top 4) will indicate quality of this race (farther back, the better).


:2: Thunder Run= I hate this horse but it's Maker. Lot's of things I don't like on this one.

:3: Bro Rodriguez = He is very solid.



good luck

[Robert Fischer]

good race

they were getting tired in the stretch. Looked like the 4 was trying to get through.

[letswastemoney]

good race

they were getting tired in the stretch. Looked like the 4 was trying to get through.
Bro Rodrigeaux almost had it. I put a $2 win bet on him and used him in a pick 3 lol. Sheikinator was just too good.

[letswastemoney]

I ended up betting Dorsett. I liked the aggressive strategy, but it just didn't pay off. River Seven was too good.