Drying Out Track

[DeoVolente]

I remember the ESPN guys commenting on the rail on the telecast. So
*why* did Bailey stay on it? I didn't think Birdstone good enough to
win the Derby, but I really thought he was good enough to win this.
The worst thing is the not knowing - we now really have no idea how
good the horse is or isn't.

Drying out and off are 2 different things - even muddy and sloppy
are different things. Come right down to it, muddy isn't even the
same thing at different tracks. Sloppy is closer to the same at dif
tracks that muddy will be. So really how DO you compare wet track
form when a horse goes to a dif track, runs on sloppy vs. muddy, or
good, or drying out, or whatever. They really can be quite different
since some muddy tracks are quicksand kinda sucky, some are
slippery goo, or whatever. Sloppy tracks have so much water on
them it's a different game. Or how about the rare instance or a
frozen track? That can be like running on concrete, or it might be
crusty on the top and break when you step on it.

When you come right down to it, do we really ever know how much
effect the track surface had on the horse's race? What do you do
with the old veteran who's had 20-some starts and his last 10 all
show fast tracks, but his record shows 6 off track races and he won
3 of them and was out of the money in 3. We don't know why.
That's the kind of info I'd like - were those off track races routes or
sprints? Mud, slop, what? What tracks did he run at those times - it
could have been CA and now he's in NY for all we know! You talk
about more info being what people need today, well THIS is the kind
of info that would be worth something.

Question how do you handle drying out tracks as a handicapper?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Send me the PP's and I will tell you why!! / I make it a habit to do extreme studies on PP patterns- to learn why horses do what they do in certain races or as a general pattern. Most od the time it is the individual horse weight barrier that caused poor finished. Some horses cannot run well past 120 lbs; some poorly past 126, etc. / As to drying out tracks, I just have to assume the track is normal and handicap for the best horse. I do not like to bet when the track/weather is due to change during the race card. There are other races at other tracks to play! I did not play most of last summer because I did not like the track surfaces at Del Mar, CRC< and Saratoga.

[raybo]

<So really how DO you compare wet track
form when a horse goes to a dif track, runs on sloppy vs. muddy, or good, or drying out, or whatever.>

Although I don't put lots of emphasis on sy,my,gd, etc., I think, as kw mentioned, that weight can be a factor, but, I go further and combine weight with the track variant. The letter designations for "off" tracks mean very little, in my opinion. I think that track variant (obvious changes) are the only measurement we have for % off. If there is a better way of looking at the problem, I wish someone would post it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Use Equibase middle 4f dirt work as speed predictor.