A Morning Line Question

[Flysofree]

Are there any tracks that use a computer to make the program morning lines?
Thanks

[raybo]

I don't know for sure but I would imagine many tracks use computer generated M/L's. It would only make sense to me. I mean many of them are so atrocious anyway they certainly couldn't do much worse and it would save them lots of time. If I were setting the M/L I would write a program for assigning the M/L odds, for sure.

[kenwoodallpromos]

So which tracks are the best at predicting bets on m/l?

[raybo]

<So which tracks are the best at predicting bets on m/l?>

That would be a good one for the database gurus to find out. At which tracks and what is the percentage of M/L favorites going on to win?

[Flysofree]

That's why I asked the question . One response that I heard from a somewhat knowledgeable source was that the Track Handicapper does not like to make the longshots too high of a M/L figure so that he won't anger the owner. I don't know about that but he also told me that he doubts the M/L is computerized.

[Binder]

I'm not 100% sure.
I might be wrong or maybe i misunderstood.
A few years ago I went out and visited Doc Sartin
I only got to spend one day at his office . I went out to learn what I could about the Sartin Methodology. I spent the whole day with Doc.
We worked about 5 races together on his computer.
But most of the time we just talked. I remember asking Doc about
the morning line. Like how do they make it? or how come it
is so accurate sometimes. I'm not 100% sure but I think I remember him saying that there is a program that all the tracks use that quickly makes the odds . Its based on a point system
that awards points for things that the public feels are importand
Top Jockey Top Trainer Recency, Last race effort, Weight, Days
since last race, Field size,
stuff like that. He said that it is a special program that makes the odds but the oddsmaker still has to tweek it so that some horses are not too high. Its a curtosy to the trainers and owners not to make a horse to high on the line. I have never seen a horse over 35/1 run I have seen them at PHA listed in the program that high but they always scratch
Like I said. It was a few years ago but I do remember him telling me about a program to makes the morning line

Thanks
Binder

[Flysofree]

Thanks Binder. I'm still uncertain if I think it is computerized or varies from track to track. It does seem to me that it is a good indicator, so Sartin may be correct.
Just wish I knew for certain .

[Hosshead]

Some of the worst ML makers use a template type of approach.
They start off with assigning the Fav (usually NOT very low odds), then depending on what the Fav is, they have a list of PRE-MADE odds (template) to assign the rest of the horses. A total BOGUS odds line. This is because they are LAZY. And don't want to take the time to actually handicap the race, much less ALL the races on a card. Even less if the oddsmaker is doing more than 1 track.

There was a post on the HTR website last year about this. In the example given, I think maybe it was Charlestown, where there were I think 6 or 7 races with the exact same ML odds all the way out to the 5th or 6th ML FAV !! And that was just one day. This guy does it all the time. And he's not the only guy (track) who does this. Just lazy that's all. And the tracks let them get away with this.
Also with this "LAZY MAN'S APPROACH", you don't see many ML Fav's below 2/1, they want the crowd to think that the horse with the post position of Aunt Betty's birthday-- has a big chance !!

The worst thing about it is that the so called "Track Handicapper" isn't really handicapping. (all the horses in the races)

If you see this happening at your track, write or contact the highest level of management you can, and let them know that this is not going unnoticed. Give examples of races with identical ML odds. DON"T CONTACT THE TRACK ODDSMAKER !! You think he will pass your suggestion on, to the powers that be?

I must give credit also to the tracks that DON'T do this. There are some very good track handicapper (oddsmakers) who actually DO Handicapping !

[yak merchant]

No offense, but why in God's name would I want to write track management about inaccurate morning lines? The more accurate the morning lines, the more dumb money that gets taken off the horses that should be 50-1 and put on the 6-1 I think is going to run. Hell I'd like for them to make all the pretty grey horses all 3-1 and all the brown ones 4-1 and throw in a little horoscope mumbo jumbo while they're at it. I 100% support the lazyman's oddmakers union.

[Hosshead]

Because with this era of huge after the bell odds changes, ML odds can be a key factor in building systems. You may be able to get those people's money at first (who bet on a ML 6/1 instead of 50/1), but after they lose enough times from a crooked ML, they might not be back. Then you'll have to take money from a handicapper who is as astute as yourself.

[JackS]

I never considered that a M/L might be computer generated but mayby it is. I think it is/was the Racing Secritary's responsibility. Total line odds were intentionally optimistic to reflect the track take. Odds overestimation ranged from about 120% -130%. The Racing Sec. also assigns weights which would have to qualify him/her as a good handicapper to begin with.

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by Flysofree
... that the Track Handicapper does not like to make the longshots too high of a M/L figure so that he won't anger the owner. ...

the Morning line maker is NOT acting as a handicapper! THe job is to predict the Odds at post, not the chances of a horse winning.

Actually, he is hanciapping the public!

Fleww

[BIG HIT]

Don't know but remenber volponi ml was 50 to 1 in breeder cup classic.And he won for fun.So could be computer thing.If it is pretty dam good as some one wrote top 4 ml win 80% of time.Idon't have database so can't say how true it is but they do win a awful lot.

[JackS]

Making a morning line may not be as difficult as it might seem. If you've ever attempted making point spreads for pro or college sporting events before the "official" LV line comes out and you were always close to or right on, a personal ML would be just as easy or maybe easier. Many on this board are doing just that and playing into what they consider overlays.

[kitts]

I get a kick out of the ML guy at OP. He often has multiple horse "tied" for 2nd ML favorite. Not a risk taker here <g>