situation handicapping

[jasperson]

I like handicapping when the situation for the race has changed. When the track goes from turf to off turf or fast to sloppy. I think this is a chance of greater odds on a good horse. At Fairmont park in the spring I like front runner coming off lay offs. Why,because they are cheap horses and can't compete with the major track in the south so they lay up for the winter and front runners do best after a lay off. Also I like horses shift from artifical to dirt like from ap to haw. Sometimes you can catch a horse that llikes haw and not AP. This is true for both finger lakes and Woodbine.

[davew]

yes, it is a great situation when the turf race goes from 12 horses to 5, and all of the turf contenders have scratched when it switched to the mud

I am just glad there are races in other parts of the country that do not have that situation

[jasperson]

yes, it is a great situation when the turf race goes from 12 horses to 5, and all of the turf contenders have scratched when it switched to the mud

I am just glad there are races in other parts of the country that do not have that situation
Thats what I count on. The better handicapper leave this race to the novices and sometimes they stick with the morning line favorite even though he should be downgraded because of the surface. That makes for a good win place bet on some other horse.