Let's handicap 11/7 Aqueduct Race 1

[letswastemoney]

This is a very interesting race, with a half brother to Title Contender, a full brother to Secret Circle, and the third place finisher in Strong Mandate's maiden win Rebranded.

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AQU&race=1&param1=130845&param2=891&param3=567)

I've knocked Strong Mandate's maiden win for a while now. I'm not sure if any horse coming out of that race has won since, except for Strong Mandate. So, I'll go against Rebranded here.

The full brother to Secret Circle, Behedeman, made his first two starts on turf and seems to lack the flashy speed of his famous sibling. Maybe Secret Circle's speed is just a product of Bob Baffert's training. I also wonder why they started him on turf when his famous sibling is a multiple g1 stakes winner on dirt.

The sibling to Title Contender, Matterhorn, is trained by Todd Pletcher (as is Rebranded). Velazquez had two options in this race, and he chose Matterhorn.

Matterhorn is my pick to win.

Street Gent, Great Minds, Cousin Stephen, Rare Eagle, and Behedeman all have a shot at finishing second.

Caspian Sea might need a race and goes without lasix, so I don't particularly like him but I could change my mind.

[Ocala Mike]

Velasquez, as in Johnny V? He may have chosen who to ride, but he won't be riding anything but a hospital bed for a little while longer. Recovering from spleen removal surgery from an injury in a BC race.

Tell me this about the race (too lazy to look up for myself): are there any second timers in the race?

[letswastemoney]

Velasquez, as in Johnny V? He may have chosen who to ride, but he won't be riding anything but a hospital bed for a little while longer. Recovering from spleen removal surgery from an injury in a BC race.

Tell me this about the race (too lazy to look up for myself): are there any second timers in the race?
Oh that's right, while looking at the race I forgot he's going to be out for a while.

The two second time starters are Cousin Stephen, a 210k purchase trained by Chad Brown, and Rare Eagle, a 140k Birdstone with Thomas Albertrani as the trainer.

Just the fact that Velazquez was named on Matterhorn is a good sign though, even if he obviously will be replaced.

[Ocala Mike]

Looks like my kind of race. I'll post something here on Wed. or Thurs. am.

[duncan04]

:5: Rebranded is my pick. Pletcher 29% with 2 year olds. Ran good second last out going a mile. Has best last BRIS speed figure and gets Rosario.

[Ocala Mike]

A real monkey puzzle of a maiden race, upon cloer examination. First time starters, second time starters, turf to dirt horses, horses stretching out, and two "uncoupled entries" (Albertrani and Pletcher). I will wait for a message from the DD prices or, more likely, pass the race.

[jk3521]

(quote) Caspian Sea might need a race and goes without lasix, so I don't particularly like him but I could change my mind.

Darley horses only go on Lasix when they need it.

[letswastemoney]

(quote) Caspian Sea might need a race and goes without lasix, so I don't particularly like him but I could change my mind.

Darley horses only go on Lasix when they need it.
I know, but whether they need it or not, I see it as a disadvantage not to have lasix when the entire field does.

[mistergee]

5 of 8 horses have not run in a dirt race yet. Is this a trick question to just say we would pass the race?

[letswastemoney]

5 of 8 horses have not run in a dirt race yet. Is this a trick question to just say we would pass the race?
If it helps, the half sibling to Great Minds is a multiple winner on dirt.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8059472&registry=T

[thaskalos]

Even if I had only one track's races to choose from, I would pass this race without giving it a second look.

I have enough trouble when the horses' complete racing records are on full display...

[limit2]

Here is what I would do in race 1 at Aqueduct: Consider only #'s 4-7 in the race and select the highest premium ( 50% or better) horse over the ML.

[ten2oneormore]

I don't see why Street Gent can't win if he takes to dirt and 20-1 is a good enough price to find out.

[letswastemoney]

After thinking about it some more, I might try a double.

Race 2 is a MCL 50k.

:1: Mi Hijo (3/1) has the high BRIS figure
:6: Chief Scout (15/1) is a second time starter that cost 150k, switches to Bruce Levine barn
:10: Loveisheartandsoul (15/1) also makes her second start and switches to dirt, the surface which his dam was a G3 winner on (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=6779594&registry=T)

Back to Race 1, either I single :2: Matterhorn, or if I use other horses, it will be :4: Great Minds and/or :7: Rare Eagle to go along with it.

[Quesmark]

11/7/2013

Aqueduct R1- #:6: Cousin Stephen,210K colt gets blinkers on,a jockey switch to Castellano,and has steady works since his 1 mile debut at Belmont on 9/8,speed fig was a little low,but 2 yos can improve rapidly

[KidCapper]

Aqueduct Race -1 The :7: . Bred to run all day. Ran a good closing 3rd ask first asking while racing greenly. 3 workouts since including a bullet 5F Oct 15th for Albertrani who hits at 18% with 2nd career starters. Improvement coming here.

$10 WP :7:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Take a shot with :6: Cousin Steve.

Looks like there are a few better horses in here, but with the scratches of the two inside horses, doubtful that there is much of a price on a couple of those that look like more obvious contenders.

Cousin Steve's debut was, in my opinion, a little better than it looked. He was pretty well taken out at the start when both he and his rival in here, Rebranded, got pinched back.

It seemed like Steve got the worst of it, spotting the field quite a bit, and a few behind Rebranded. The latter made a bit of a premature move into contention on the turn and Steve followed him with a nice move himself, but was spent by the top of the lane - though still outfinishing Rebranded who had a similarly tough go of it (and then came back to run well in his next start and will probably be supported on the merit of that one.)

Today, Steve adds blinkers. Hard to say for sure, but the race looks to be crying for someone to take the initiative to set the pace. I'm hoping that someone is Steve.

Should he get a clean break and get to lope on the pace, the way that he ran from the half to just outside the quarter in his debut, I can see him digging in with a nice finishing effort.

Not sure of the price here, but suspecting that he'll be no worse than 7-2. I don't really like the race in general, but were this a contest race, assuming Steve was indeed 7-2 or better as the third or fourth choice, I'd see him as the one to back as a possible gate to wire threat and major improvement with a clean trip and some useful racing experience in the debut.

[Ocala Mike]

The old Wall St. adage, "don't fight the tape," applies here. No value, but going with the Chad Brown second time starter, :6: , with a :6: :7: exacta box (the other 2TS).

[Ocala Mike]

PS: I caught the horse opening at even money, and the double with Zito's horse only $16. Don't think I took it down wrong. Major early money move, with nice drifting up to 3/1 now.

[KidCapper]

Good call on the :6: cappers! :ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

Rebranded is much worse than I even thought. But, unfortunately I didn't use Cousin Stephen like most of you did. Great job those who had him!

[Ocala Mike]

Some races lend themselves to "fundamental" handicapping, while others (usually maiden races) are best handled with "technical" factors, such as the board, equipment changes, etc. This was obviously one of those races. No worldbeaters in there, either, judging by the final time.

[Stillriledup]

Take a shot with :6: Cousin Steve.

Looks like there are a few better horses in here, but with the scratches of the two inside horses, doubtful that there is much of a price on a couple of those that look like more obvious contenders.

Cousin Steve's debut was, in my opinion, a little better than it looked. He was pretty well taken out at the start when both he and his rival in here, Rebranded, got pinched back.

It seemed like Steve got the worst of it, spotting the field quite a bit, and a few behind Rebranded. The latter made a bit of a premature move into contention on the turn and Steve followed him with a nice move himself, but was spent by the top of the lane - though still outfinishing Rebranded who had a similarly tough go of it (and then came back to run well in his next start and will probably be supported on the merit of that one.)

Today, Steve adds blinkers. Hard to say for sure, but the race looks to be crying for someone to take the initiative to set the pace. I'm hoping that someone is Steve.

Should he get a clean break and get to lope on the pace, the way that he ran from the half to just outside the quarter in his debut, I can see him digging in with a nice finishing effort.

Not sure of the price here, but suspecting that he'll be no worse than 7-2. I don't really like the race in general, but were this a contest race, assuming Steve was indeed 7-2 or better as the third or fourth choice, I'd see him as the one to back as a possible gate to wire threat and major improvement with a clean trip and some useful racing experience in the debut.

Hmmm, its easy to post winners after the fact (Race went off at 12:20 i believe) But i'm just kidding, i know you wouldnt past post. :D

Excellent call. :ThmbUp:

[Ocala Mike]

Here is what I would do in race 1 at Aqueduct: Consider only #'s 4-7 in the race and select the highest premium ( 50% or better) horse over the ML.



You "considered" properly, but looking for premiums over the ML has never worked for me. Horses rarely win in a vacuum, and the winner was 6/1 ML, opened at evens, and drifted to 7/2, an extemely live pattern.

[cj's dad]

R5-:8:
R6-:6:/:1:
R7-:5:
R8-:8:/:1:
R9-:6:/:12:

[jk3521]

Take a shot with :6: Cousin Steve.

Looks like there are a few better horses in here, but with the scratches of the two inside horses, doubtful that there is much of a price on a couple of those that look like more obvious contenders.

Cousin Steve's debut was, in my opinion, a little better than it looked. He was pretty well taken out at the start when both he and his rival in here, Rebranded, got pinched back.

It seemed like Steve got the worst of it, spotting the field quite a bit, and a few behind Rebranded. The latter made a bit of a premature move into contention on the turn and Steve followed him with a nice move himself, but was spent by the top of the lane - though still outfinishing Rebranded who had a similarly tough go of it (and then came back to run well in his next start and will probably be supported on the merit of that one.)

Today, Steve adds blinkers. Hard to say for sure, but the race looks to be crying for someone to take the initiative to set the pace. I'm hoping that someone is Steve.

Should he get a clean break and get to lope on the pace, the way that he ran from the half to just outside the quarter in his debut, I can see him digging in with a nice finishing effort.

Not sure of the price here, but suspecting that he'll be no worse than 7-2. I don't really like the race in general, but were this a contest race, assuming Steve was indeed 7-2 or better as the third or fourth choice, I'd see him as the one to back as a possible gate to wire threat and major improvement with a clean trip and some useful racing experience in the debut.
Great call and you got your 7-2

[CincyHorseplayer]

Take a shot with :6: Cousin Steve.

Looks like there are a few better horses in here, but with the scratches of the two inside horses, doubtful that there is much of a price on a couple of those that look like more obvious contenders.

Cousin Steve's debut was, in my opinion, a little better than it looked. He was pretty well taken out at the start when both he and his rival in here, Rebranded, got pinched back.

It seemed like Steve got the worst of it, spotting the field quite a bit, and a few behind Rebranded. The latter made a bit of a premature move into contention on the turn and Steve followed him with a nice move himself, but was spent by the top of the lane - though still outfinishing Rebranded who had a similarly tough go of it (and then came back to run well in his next start and will probably be supported on the merit of that one.)

Today, Steve adds blinkers. Hard to say for sure, but the race looks to be crying for someone to take the initiative to set the pace. I'm hoping that someone is Steve.

Should he get a clean break and get to lope on the pace, the way that he ran from the half to just outside the quarter in his debut, I can see him digging in with a nice finishing effort.

Not sure of the price here, but suspecting that he'll be no worse than 7-2. I don't really like the race in general, but were this a contest race, assuming Steve was indeed 7-2 or better as the third or fourth choice, I'd see him as the one to back as a possible gate to wire threat and major improvement with a clean trip and some useful racing experience in the debut.

Your analysis was almost psychic here.Good stuff.:ThmbUp: