Horse performance attributes

[JJMartin]

Besides speed figures, early speed and pace analysis, what are other ways to evaluate a horse's run in his last race strictly speaking? A metric that relates just to the horse's movement on the track.

I am trying to incorporate another factor to my current formula in excel and I am looking for some thoughts from the forum.

[Overlay]

What about a case where the horse (regardless of the pace or running time involved) was engaged in a duel for the lead in the later stages of its last race, being no more than one length either ahead or behind at the last two (or three) calls, or having a clear lead of more than one length at either the final-quarter or stretch call, but then being under pressure from there to the wire, winning or losing by a neck or less. (You could also add a recency qualifier, if desired (such as requiring the horse's last race to have been within the past 21 days).)

[thaskalos]

What about a case where the horse (regardless of the pace or running time involved) was engaged in a duel for the lead in the later stages of its last race, being no more than one length either ahead or behind at the last two (or three) calls, or having a clear lead of more than one length at either the final-quarter or stretch call, but then being under pressure from there to the wire, winning or losing by a neck or less. (You could also add a recency qualifier, if desired (such as requiring the horse's last race to have been within the past 21 days).)
I remember Quirin listing this as a profitable angle...but I think it lost its luster upon further scrutiny.

[JJMartin]

What about a case where the horse (regardless of the pace or running time involved) was engaged in a duel for the lead in the later stages of its last race, being no more than one length either ahead or behind at the last two (or three) calls, or having a clear lead of more than one length at either the final-quarter or stretch call, but then being under pressure from there to the wire, winning or losing by a neck or less. (You could also add a recency qualifier, if desired (such as requiring the horse's last race to have been within the past 21 days).)

Thanks Overlay, it would be great to assess such a scenario as you describe computationally, but I was looking for something along more general terms that could be rated easily. What do you think about pedigree as a factor?

[thaskalos]

Given the general proficiency that the crowd has demonstrated in assigning accurate closing odds...how about creating a "consistency rating", based on whether or not the particular horses outrun their listed closing odds?

[Dave Schwartz]

What do you think about pedigree as a factor?

I thought you said you want it to be based upon the last race.

:confused:

[Maximillion]

Given the general proficiency that the crowd has demonstrated in assigning accurate closing odds...how about creating a "consistency rating", based on whether or not the particular horses outrun their listed closing odds?

I like the idea......I think you would have to consider whether or not it was legitimate improvement that led to the horse outrunning its odds.
Anything that might be off the "whale radar" might be worth taking a closer look at. :)

[Speed Figure]

The worst the last race the better!

[JJMartin]

I thought you said you want it to be based upon the last race.

:confused:

Yes sorry, I should not have phrased it 'last race'. I'm looking for some way to rate an attribute that relates to how well a horse runs, something like a speed figure but speed figures are already being employed, I need something else.

[LottaKash]

, I need something else.

You aren't asking for too much now, are you ?.....:D

Take a number....:cool: .. It may be a long time coming tho...:)

[Dave Schwartz]

How about speed-like ratings based upon class level of the race?

IOW, if the race was a 105 and the horse finished 3.5 lengths behind the winner, he gets a 101.5.

BTW, credit this idea to Barry Burkann. He had a harness product converted to TBreds about 25 years ago based upon this idea.

In his product - Power Pace - he built pace ratings off the class level as well!

A brilliant idea, IMHO.