Pick Five handicapping players only

[1st time lasix]

With the proliferation of the low take-out fifty cent pick five at tracks in US.....i find myself gravitating toward this multi-race exotic pool It probably fits my desire to do a little advance handicapping....seek lower take pools.....and have more serious opportunity for an overlay A "bet small...win big philosophy" i guess. Clearly there is growth in this exotic handle-- so i must not be alone Have to be numerous accomplished players on this forum that have developed sucessful strategies and have helpful informative stats on this wager. A few questiions:some basic...some strategic....there seems to be inconsistancy in those venues that will pay four out of five.. 1} Who does....who doesn't? 2}Assuming one uses a Crist method of ranking contenders and filling out multiple tickes..... why not seek vulnerability of the favorites in leg one and/or leg two in the sequence and always structure around them? {unless there is a carry} 3}There now seems to be a pick four beginning in the next leg and generaly rolling threes and doubles following on any given card. Is there a method of exploiting this? Say.... a sort of -if this happens ...then this should happen ....type of wagering preference.4} What kind of average bankroll are the particpants using on this exotic? is it enough? Is that in itself the reason to go after it or shun it at specific places?

[tanner12oz]

The California pick 5 at Hollywood. Delmar and Sa is the most solid wager going right now...competitive fields..low takeout...good pool size..quality tracks..
seriously nothing compares and the discussion begins and ends there

[1st time lasix]

"so the discussion ends there"..... that sure helps:bang:

[RunForTheRoses]

Out of major tracks, I think only Gulfstream and Keeneland offer 4 of 5. NYRA and SoCal do not. My initial opinion was the conso is good, now not so sure. It is nice when you can recoup a big chunk of your money with multi consos but, if you hit you get less.

Personally, I don't really like the Crist approach and probably it is because he is a much better handicapper than me who can more accurately rate contenders. I've done best in P4s and 5s when going deep in many legs, that is using Bs and Cs in more than one or even two legs, and singling in one leg, maybe two in another, e.g. 5X4X5X2X1. It can be a tough bet to hit, you will go a while with some real close calls, best I did was Jan 2012 GP, had a singlr on last leg, hit a $60 horse in one leg I went 4 deep, paid $4900, also had P4 twice. But, I have many woulda, coulda, shoulda stories. Even so look forward to this weekends opportunities in the BC.

[Stillriledup]

Out of major tracks, I think only Gulfstream and Keeneland offer 4 of 5. NYRA and SoCal do not. My initial opinion was the conso is good, now not so sure. It is nice when you can recoup a big chunk of your money with multi consos but, if you hit you get less.

Personally, I don't really like the Crist approach and probably it is because he is a much better handicapper than me who can more accurately rate contenders. I've done best in P4s and 5s when going deep in many legs, that is using Bs and Cs in more than one or even two legs, and singling in one leg, maybe two in another, e.g. 5X4X5X2X1. It can be a tough bet to hit, you will go a while with some real close calls, best I did was Jan 2012 GP, had a singlr on last leg, hit a $60 horse in one leg I went 4 deep, paid $4900, also had P4 twice. But, I have many woulda, coulda, shoulda stories. Even so look forward to this weekends opportunities in the BC.

I like the conso because you're going to hit 4 out of 5 WAY more than you hit 5 out of 5....and, on the rare occasion you hit 5, you arent going to care that you got a lower payout, because that lower payout gets "made up" by having a ton of consos anyway. I like the idea of "getting something back" for psychological health....this is a rough game and people betting pick anything's are going to lose way more than they're going to win, so to get a little bit back is really a good idea i believe.

[RunForTheRoses]

I like the conso because you're going to hit 4 out of 5 WAY more than you hit 5 out of 5....and, on the rare occasion you hit 5, you arent going to care that you got a lower payout, because that lower payout gets "made up" by having a ton of consos anyway. I like the idea of "getting something back" for psychological health....this is a rough game and people betting pick anything's are going to lose way more than they're going to win, so to get a little bit back is really a good idea i believe.

Your probably right, the variance on this bet is real high and for a weekend warrior getting most of my money back or a slight profit is best. But I won't stop playing NYRA or SoCal either.

[Stillriledup]

Your probably right, the variance on this bet is real high and for a weekend warrior getting most of my money back or a slight profit is best. But I won't stop playing NYRA or SoCal either.

I dont think players need a conso in NY, they have the pick 5 in the first 5 races and that's where they stick all the short fields with standout horses, its really hard to get a bonanza payout in NY, you usually get at least one even money shot winner in the first 5 races and that kills the prices, i like how Keeneland and other tracks do it, the last 5 races are the pick 5, you have a shot for a huge score at that place because the later races are usually the most wide open.

[davew]

I don't think this is a good bet for a weekend warrior unless they have deep pockets and willing to go on a long stretch without cashing.

Lets say you include enough horses to get the winner 80% of the time for 5 races. - You will get all 5 less than 1/3 of the time.

Now lets say you want to skip obvious underlays and big favorites that you feel are vulnerable - that leg will probably have less than 50% chance of winning.

So you have the dilemma, include many to cash a ticket, or single a race or 2 and go deep in the chaos races...

and don't forget that all races in the series need to be included - even if it is a full field of 2 yr old first time starters....


If you want to play that way, I would suggest betting 3-4 cold exactas on a card for more bang to your buck on the races you feel good about.

[Stillriledup]

I don't think this is a good bet for a weekend warrior unless they have deep pockets and willing to go on a long stretch without cashing.

Lets say you include enough horses to get the winner 80% of the time for 5 races. - You will get all 5 less than 1/3 of the time.

Now lets say you want to skip obvious underlays and big favorites that you feel are vulnerable - that leg will probably have less than 50% chance of winning.

So you have the dilemma, include many to cash a ticket, or single a race or 2 and go deep in the chaos races...

and don't forget that all races in the series need to be included - even if it is a full field of 2 yr old first time starters....


If you want to play that way, I would suggest betting 3-4 cold exactas on a card for more bang to your buck on the races you feel good about.

The pick 5 is SO hard to hit, i can't tell you how many times i had 4 out of 5 and got beat in a race where i went 6, 7, or 8 deep and lost that leg.

[RunForTheRoses]

I don't think this is a good bet for a weekend warrior unless they have deep pockets and willing to go on a long stretch without cashing.

Lets say you include enough horses to get the winner 80% of the time for 5 races. - You will get all 5 less than 1/3 of the time.

Now lets say you want to skip obvious underlays and big favorites that you feel are vulnerable - that leg will probably have less than 50% chance of winning.

So you have the dilemma, include many to cash a ticket, or single a race or 2 and go deep in the chaos races...

and don't forget that all races in the series need to be included - even if it is a full field of 2 yr old first time starters....


If you want to play that way, I would suggest betting 3-4 cold exactas on a card for more bang to your buck on the races you feel good about.

Then you have to factor in when you do hit it may be a signer, especially a less than $5K signer where they do not withold. I do not normally itemize so this is not good. I love the challenge of hitting one but it probably would be more prudent to go to an exacta, DD, WPS strategy.

[pandy]

Catskill Steve (at www.ustrotting.com) hit the 50 cent Pick 5 at Yonkers last night, paid $1190 for 50 cents and he now has a profit even though he lost his first 35 wagers. That's the thing with these types of bets. If you have the stomach for it, you can show a profit over the long haul because the value is there.

[thaskalos]

Catskill Steve (at www.ustrotting.com) hit the 50 cent Pick 5 at Yonkers last night, paid $1190 for 50 cents and he now has a profit even though he lost his first 35 wagers. That's the thing with these types of bets. If you have the stomach for it, you can show a profit over the long haul because the value is there.
I don't follow Catskill Steve enough to know if he has a profit or not after last night's pick-5...but I see that he invested $36 on his winning ticket...and if he had invested an average of $36 a play over his prior 35 losses...then he was stuck $1,260 going into last night.

[pandy]

He did not average $36. His total wager for the 36 nights was less than $1,000 so he actually has a pretty nice profit from a percentage standpoint.

[1st time lasix]

Of course these wagers "are hard to hit"....that is why they create signers. Any stat guys following pick five pools....payouts...and differences when the chalk wins leg one or leg two?

[Pensacola Pete]

The California pick 5 at Hollywood. Delmar and Sa is the most solid wager going right now...competitive fields..low takeout...good pool size..quality tracks..


And every whale, sharpie, and heavy hitter feasting on them.

[tanner12oz]

"so the discussion ends there"..... that sure helps:bang:

find a better consistent wagering opportunity in the pick 5 domain...crickets will chirp

[tanner12oz]

And every whale, sharpie, and heavy hitter feasting on them.

and still producing payouts that made the parlays look silly

[Show Me the Wire]

1st time lasix:

Personally I avoid the pick 5, I don't like swimming with the whales. I am more of the mind of Dave Schwartz, hit em were they ain't strategy.

Regarding your question about a weak favorite, yes that would be a good strategy, in some circumstances. If you could confidently toss the ML fav and even better the 2nd ML choice too, you have a good opportunity if you have at the most two solid selections in the subject race(s), in any of the legs.

[1st time lasix]

I tossed a favorite in first leg Sunday at Santa Anita. Used the 10- who was 2nd choice....caught a very logical chalk in last two legs and got $1500 for fifty cents. 5-1 and 9-1 in legs 2 and three. I consider that an overlay. No luck at all in that massive carryover on Saturday Breeder's Cup day. Imagine the dq cost quite a few players including myself. Simply didn't have the upset winner. I thought it might pay even more than 23 k. The pk five at Gulfstream must not be pulling much money in yet. Despite a 76 winning horse in the five sequence...the payout wasn't gigantic.

[1st time lasix]

using some recent observation at major tracks ...{not hard evidence} it seems that if four out-of-five low priced favorites come in during the pick five sequence then the payoffs run from $400-700 for fifty cents. If you can miss two low-priced favorites-- the payoffs are in the 800-1100 range. If two or less favorites come in out of five...then the payoffs become boxcars. I would guess that if you catch a longer price in the the first two legs and miss the most obvious single in the entire sequence....a "signer" is very likely.

[Stillriledup]

Pick 5 in Calif is amazing value, there was a pick 5 the other day at Hollywood that paid 4300 for 50 cents.

It was a 7.60 winner in a small field, a 4.80 winner, a 23.00 winner in a 6 horse field, an even money international tout horse in the 4th leg and a 6-1 shot in the finale.

Parlay is about 800 bucks, paid 4300.

[thaskalos]

The 50-cent pick 5 is a great bet for the player...and I hope that we soon get to see it on the wagering menus of all the tracks in the land. IMO...the bet has everything a bettor could want; a comparatively low takeout, a low minimum betting unit, great wagering value relative to the corresponding parlay, and you only have to concern yourself with winning horses...instead of obsessing about who is going to finish second or third.

The only negative that I could see is that this wager could easily lead a player to start overspreading to the extent where failure becomes practically assured.

As it's true with any other bet...not every pick 5 is meant to be played.

[Stillriledup]

The 50-cent pick 5 is a great bet for the player...and I hope that we soon get to see it on the wagering menus of all the tracks in the land. IMO...the bet has everything a bettor could want; a comparatively low takeout, a low minimum betting unit, great wagering value relative to the corresponding parlay, and you only have to concern yourself with winning horses...instead of obsessing about who is going to finish second or third.

The only negative that I could see is that this wager could easily lead a player to start overspreading to the extent where failure becomes practically assured.

As it's true with any other bet...not every pick 5 is meant to be played.

NOW you tell me!

I'm hoping a track comes up with "rolling pick 5s" this way, if you get knocked out in leg 1, you can start again in leg 2 and you already have your 4 race sequence structured, you just have to add one more race at the end.

[Delta Cone]

... and you only have to concern yourself with winning horses...instead of obsessing about who is going to finish second or third.

This is a critical point, for me at least. I recently took a look at my betting records. I am not a winning player, but I show a small profit on win bets and near break even on pick 3s and pick 4s.

Unfortunately, it is painfully clear that any money I put into the exa-tri-super pools is as good as gone.

[Stillriledup]

Its amazing to me that the pick 4 is so popular considering that its a fairly hard bet to hit, and yet, many pick 4s pay peanuts. Its rare to get a pick 4 that pays over 10k and the ones that DO pay 10k are hard to hit unless you spend a few grand on a huge ticket because you essentially need four horses to pay over 10 dollars and at least one of them to pay 40 or more to get 10 grand for 50 cents.

Supers should be more popular than pick 4s because with a super, you only have to be right once, with a pick 4 you have to be right 4 times. If a 3-5 shot "blows up" in a race and you have supers without that horse on your ticket and your longshots maneuver themselves into the right spots, you can get boxcar payouts, its tough to be "right" 4 times in a row in the pick 4 while at the same time, having the public essentially be wrong 4 times in a row in order to get a boxcar payout.

[thaskalos]

This is a critical point, for me at least. I recently took a look at my betting records. I am not a winning player, but I show a small profit on win bets and near break even on pick 3s and pick 4s.

Unfortunately, it is painfully clear that any money I put into the exa-tri-super pools is as good as gone.

And this is exactly the reason why I refuse to accept so much of the "theory" that I read in handicapping books, by some of the popular handicapping authors out there.

I have read in books -- and also on this board -- that people should not engage in exotics wagering if they are unable to first show a profit with their win-betting. A player should be a profitable win-bettor first, the books say...otherwise he has no business in the exotics pools.

This is pure nonsense, of course...because the exotics are an entirely different ballgame...which demands that the player possess an altogether different set of skill.

You can be a profitable win-bettor...and yet get destroyed in the exotics. And -- conversely -- you can be a loser while betting to win...but find success in the exotics.

I know...because it has happened to me.

[antigeekess]

I tossed a favorite in first leg Sunday at Santa Anita. Used the 10- who was 2nd choice....caught a very logical chalk in last two legs and got $1500 for fifty cents. 5-1 and 9-1 in legs 2 and three. I consider that an overlay. No luck at all in that massive carryover on Saturday Breeder's Cup day. Imagine the dq cost quite a few players including myself. Simply didn't have the upset winner. I thought it might pay even more than 23 k. The pk five at Gulfstream must not be pulling much money in yet. Despite a 76 winning horse in the five sequence...the payout wasn't gigantic.

I had Ria Antonia. But had already blown it in the second by singling the 1. I 'almost' did a ticket with Stevens on Ponchatrain as a single and would have then just bought the second.

Almost. :bang:

[antigeekess]

Out of major tracks, I think only Gulfstream and Keeneland offer 4 of 5.

Had not noticed that anybody did that. Thanks for the info.

The Pick 5 is my favorite multiexotic, by far. Can't beat the takeout, and it's a bit easier to hit due to the (usually) smaller fields in the early races, at least in SoCal. Have paid the rent a couple times with them, but nothing major thus far.

[1st time lasix]

I believe pk five take outs are as follows: Keeneland and Churchill-19%....Tampa, Monmouth 15%,... Hawthorne, Del Mar , Santa Anita 14%. Pretty hard to believe considering their other % rakes...but Calder is only 12% as i recall. Don't know NY circuit percentages off top of my head... (a newer offering) but likely around 15-16%. Sure somebody who follows Belmont and Big A would know. Gulfstream is likely around par with Tampa and NY. IMO......Sucessfully navigate around one or two vulnerable favorites in the five leg sequence and you may have something that will cover up a lot of other paramutual errors.

[barn32]

Supers should be more popular than pick 4s because with a super, you only have to be right once, with a pick 4 you have to be right 4 times. Huh? :confused:

[Stillriledup]

Huh? :confused:

What don't you understand, i can help you.

[1st time lasix]

****Experienced a tough three weeks or so in the pick five pools....lots of frustrating 4 for 5 tickets. Finally caught a good one at Gulfstream over the weekend that covered up a lot of handicapping/ticket structure mistakes. For me..... it all comes down to ranking the contenders properly and missing some vulnerable favorites. Determining which race should "be spread" without the chalk and which ones on the card that may present a legit single. The very nature of the exotic pools i guess. Even though i am more of an East coast player.... I personally skip the inner meet at the Big A...focusing more on the Florida tracks and the first five in California.

[FiveWide]

I typically don't play these multi race bets. Can someone tell me how the consolation work. I understand if you have 4 of 5 you get the consolation payout but I keep hearing how if one hits 5 of 5 they get that payout plus bunches of consolation payouts. How does it work?


thx,
-Five

[antigeekess]

****Experienced a tough three weeks or so in the pick five pools....lots of frustrating 4 for 5 tickets. Finally caught a good one at Gulfstream over the weekend that covered up a lot of handicapping/ticket structure mistakes. For me..... it all comes down to ranking the contenders properly and missing some vulnerable favorites. Determining which race should "be spread" without the chalk and which ones on the card that may present a legit single. The very nature of the exotic pools i guess. Even though i am more of an East coast player.... I personally skip the inner meet at the Big A...focusing more on the Florida tracks and the first five in California.

I feel your pain. "4 outta 5" is my middle name. With the 14% takeout in Cali, 50-cent combinations and typically shorter fields in the morning, it's affordable and hittable. Haven't played it for a while now, but have gotten a couple.

My new rule for 2014 is "Single where they spread, spread where they single." ;) If you don't feel comfortable there are one or two extremely promising overlays to sharpshoot in there, skip it.

[antigeekess]

I typically don't play these multi race bets. Can someone tell me how the consolation work. I understand if you have 4 of 5 you get the consolation payout but I keep hearing how if one hits 5 of 5 they get that payout plus bunches of consolation payouts. How does it work?


thx,
-Five

There's no 4/5 payout in Cali unless it's a mandatory at the end of the meet. It rolls over otherwise.

http://www.betfairhollywoodpark.com/contests/player-s-pick-5

In a Pick 6, if you score the Pick 6 you also get the 5/6 conso. In Cali, at least. (Not overly familiar with that "Jackpot" single-winner crap they have in other states.)

[therussmeister]

I typically don't play these multi race bets. Can someone tell me how the consolation work. I understand if you have 4 of 5 you get the consolation payout but I keep hearing how if one hits 5 of 5 they get that payout plus bunches of consolation payouts. How does it work?


thx,
-Five
If you hit 5 of 5 at a track that also pays consolation, (there are some tracks that do that), the total number of consolation payouts you get equals the number of horses covered in all races minus five, or in a pick 6, minus 6.

Example: If you covered three horses in each race, that would be 15 horses total minus five. You would get the consolation ten times.

[FiveWide]

If you hit 5 of 5 at a track that also pays consolation, (there are some tracks that do that), the total number of consolation payouts you get equals the number of horses covered in all races minus five, or in a pick 6, minus 6.

Example: If you covered three horses in each race, that would be 15 horses total minus five. You would get the consolation ten times.


Gotta it now...Thx Russ

-Five

[1st time lasix]

I believe Gulfstream and Keeneland pay four out of five....save those tickets! Assume lots have been tossed... Most now only pay for true winners.

[antigeekess]

I believe Gulfstream and Keeneland pay four out of five....save those tickets! Assume lots have been tossed... Most now only pay for true winners.

Thanks for this reminder, FTL. I see it was pointed out earlier in the thread (by Gus, I think), but I'd forgotten. Gonna have to convince myself to give the East Coast another try, for this reason alone.

And FiveWide, keep in mind also that you can hit ANY of the multirace exotics multiple times for the FULL payout (3/3, 4/4, 5/5, 6/6) due to scratches. If one of your horses scratches, you get the post time favorite as your substitute for that horse. If you've already covered the favorite and s/he wins, you'll get paid twice. If more than one of your horses scratches, you get paid for each scratch. I've gotten paid 4 times on a Pick 4 this way due to my 2nd choice and a couple of hopeful longer-priced horses scratching from a large field in which I did a deep spread.

[FiveWide]

Thanks for this reminder, FTL. I see it was pointed out earlier in the thread (by Gus, I think), but I'd forgotten. Gonna have to convince myself to give the East Coast another try, for this reason alone.

And FiveWide, keep in mind also that you can hit ANY of the multirace exotics multiple times for the FULL payout (3/3, 4/4, 5/5, 6/6) due to scratches. If one of your horses scratches, you get the post time favorite as your substitute for that horse. If you've already covered the favorite and s/he wins, you'll get paid twice. If more than one of your horses scratches, you get paid for each scratch. I've gotten paid 4 times on a Pick 4 this way due to my 2nd choice and a couple of hopeful longer-priced horses scratching from a large field in which I did a deep spread.

Haven't really thought about that but yea it makes sense. Thanks for the info Antigeekess!


-Five

[antigeekess]

And in fact, FiveWide, that's a bit of an angle for me that I haven't heard anyone really promote. Watching for potential scratches. A lot of trainers will go ahead and enter their horse in a couple of races over the weekend, then make a decision which race to run based on later emerging factors. Then they scratch the horse out of one of them. So I watch for those duplicate entries.

If you can afford it and the horse looks like it might be a winner anyway, it's not a bad idea to cover it. I think of it as kind of a 2 for 1, because I'm covering both that one and potentially the favorite. (If you like the favorite, still cover it of course, in case there's no scratch.)

Here's a nice Pick 5 Jackpot carryover that came to my inbox tonight, in case you haven't seen it and are a fan of "jackpots."

On December 19th (Thursday), Laurel Park will have a $113,871.00 Pick 5 Jackpot carryover.

[tanner12oz]

Gotta it now...Thx Russ

-Five

you can really clean up on the 4/5's when you hit a perfect ticket...same goes for pick 6's...can easily pick up an extra k if you are playing fat tickets with some decent prices

[1st time lasix]

I personally will not play a "jackpot" pool of any kind-- until there is a force out. I think it is a real sucker bet. If I sucessfully handicap five races in a sequence on same ticket----I simply want my full share of the pool. If prepared....I will regularly play pic fives in Florida, and Kentucky on non-carry days in the winter assuming: 1} there are some larger fields or 2}my own personal handicapping contender rankings are different from the morning line exposing potential vulnerable favorites. I play the pk five at Monmouth, Churchill and Keeneland...along with Belmont and Saratoga this year. I generally stay away from Aqueduct...particularly in winter. I rarely play the Fairgrounds nor Woodbine meets either--- Just personal preference. I guess i understand why many venues have opted for placing the pick five early in their card...but I prefer them late.

[antigeekess]

I personally will not play a "jackpot" pool of any kind-- until there is a force out. I think it is a real sucker bet....

Agreed. I hate them, personally. I suppose I might think about it if I saw a really sneaky extreme longshot or two that I thought might not get covered by anyone else, but what are the chances of that? Generally better left alone, IMO.

[1st time lasix]

Pain and Anguish on Sunday...completely out of pick five at A, Calder, and Gulfstream all in the first leg!!! Each for various reasons...but not a single ticket alive after leg 1. Not sure that has ever happened to me. Makes for a very frustrating day!

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks Whobet and Laurel park for noting the pick 5 forced carryover payout, tomorrow Tuesday December 31st.

The carryover entering Tuesday’s racing is $174,641.
http://www.laurelpark.com/handicapping/pick-5-jackpot

Well over $200,000 will be distributed on New Year’s Eve (December 31, 2013) as Laurel will “force out” the carryover on its JACKPOT PICK5. IF there is NO SINGLE WINNER, the entire daily net pool as well as ALL CARRYOVER will be distributed to multiple winners or “best ofs”.

any opinions on this ?

looks like a 200k min pool 'guarantee', but the main bonus here is the 174K carryover. They will pay out the pot to multiple winners, (or consolations if there is no single winning ticket tomorrow).

I don't play a lot of pick 5s normally.

[Bettowin]

Here's my late night shot at it.....

3,4,5,6
1,2,4,5
2,3,4,9
3,4,6,7
1,5,7,8

Total of $512

[Bettowin]

Here's my late night shot at it.....

3,4,5,6
1,2,4,5
2,3,4,9
3,4,6,7
1,5,7,8

Total of $512

Changing a few legs

3567
2456
2349
3467
1578

Same $512

[Robert Fischer]

The first leg is tough.

The 7 is a wild card.

And that first time starter 4 is tough to call as well. How significant is it that Dutrow puts his boy Alex Cintron on the FTS 4? How will this horse be bet in the daily doubles, and the 5th race tote ?



The last race is tricky as well.


Going to sleep on it. Good luck.

[Robert Fischer]

Changing a few legs

3567
2456
2349
3467
1578

Same $512
here are my "A" horses:

34
5
269
346
147

[Stillriledup]

here are my "A" horses:

34
5
269
346
147

I see that you and betwin have an A horse as a 12-1 ML in leg 4. Ballsy?

Also, you guys both like the 1 in the last race, i tossed that horse out of my main ticket, ridiculously bad rider, but it is a weak race and i know anything can win, i left that horse off knowing that if i get to the final race alive for ok money, i can "save" with the 1 horse in exactas or a win bet. I just didnt see that one.

[speed]

In the first leg the 7's last race is much better than it looks on paper. He is quick from the gate but was green when in tight on the rail and looked to be running well at the wire.
Good Luck All

[Beachbabe]

First bet (maybe another later):

3,6,8 / 4,5 / 8,9 / 3 / 5

[Robert Fischer]

I see that you and betwin have an A horse as a 12-1 ML in leg 4. Ballsy?

Also, you guys both like the 1 in the last race, i tossed that horse out of my main ticket, ridiculously bad rider, but it is a weak race and i know anything can win, i left that horse off knowing that if i get to the final race alive for ok money, i can "save" with the 1 horse in exactas or a win bet. I just didnt see that one.




Gary Capuano is the trainer of the 3, and that horse popped last time on his pet move of prepping in a sprint to stretch out for the $$$.
The other chalk declined a little in the last and needs the previous race to win.

The 12-1 6 is competitive with a repeat effort of the debut. The question is whether he has more than he showed.
The 12-1 6 is competitive with a repeat

now this 1st leg is tough.
The 7 could easily get brave and run off.

the 3 in the last is a 'bomb' that has ugly numbers but loved the stretch out last and has a good trainer.

[Stillriledup]

Gary Capuano is the trainer of the 3, and that horse popped last time on his pet move of prepping in a sprint to stretch out for the $$$.
The other chalk declined a little in the last and needs the previous race to win.

The 12-1 6 is competitive with a repeat effort of the debut. The question is whether he has more than he showed.
The 12-1 6 is competitive with a repeat

now this 1st leg is tough.
The 7 could easily get brave and run off.

the 3 in the last is a 'bomb' that has ugly numbers but loved the stretch out last and has a good trainer.

Good luck RF, this is a tough sequence even though the fields are smallish. Tough first leg.

[Bettowin]

Changing a few legs

3567
2456
2349
3467
1578

Same $512

Dropping the 7 in the first leg and putting in the 1 who looks great on the track.

[Robert Fischer]

Good luck RF, this is a tough sequence even though the fields are smallish. Tough first leg.

here's one of my tickets.
I'm not playing jackpots today just practicing.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2w3dvte.jpg

[Stillriledup]

I had visions of grandeur with the 1 on the far turn, but, not to be, the 3 ran off like a wildhorse with the fresh trainer.

[Robert Fischer]

I had visions of grandeur with the 1 on the far turn, but, not to be, the 3 ran off like a wildhorse with the fresh trainer.

Was going to hammer the 3, but the jockey assignments and the money on the 4 threw me off. In retrospect, a pretty poor reason to pass on him.

[tanner12oz]

The 1 is scary at a price in the finale

[Muddy]

here's one of my tickets.
I'm not playing jackpots today just practicing.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2w3dvte.jpg Ticket #9 34-6-269-346-147 is looking pretty good for 27.00

[Robert Fischer]

I see that you and betwin have an A horse as a 12-1 ML in leg 4. Ballsy?


Gary Capuano is the trainer of the 3, and that horse popped last time on his pet move(and was DQ'd after an erratic stretch finish from a perfect position) of prepping in a sprint to stretch out for the $$$.
The other chalk declined a little in the last and needs the previous race to win.

The 12-1 6 is competitive with a repeat effort of the debut. The question is...

So there was some indication that leg 4 (race 8 LRL today) would be a race to look for alternatives...

My idea was looking to the "best of the rest", rather than spreading possible contenders. Maybe I approached the ticket wrong here.

The winner :1: BROWN RICE
had a competitive timeformUS figure last race, although it was on turf. Some mild traffic issues as well: [rail, checked lacking room 1/8, angled out, finish with interest].
She also debuted on dirt, and broke her maiden on dirt, and ran a best of 17 4F work on 12/27.

Even with those angles, I think she would have to be used for reasons of including "others" rather than a natural A or B.

[1st time lasix]

By spreading a bit in the first leg.... and then fortunately missing the "odds-on" in leg three {her picture on cover of DRF}---- lucky to cash a 8 grand pick five Sunday at GP. Great fun! I only spent about 150....and nearly spent 100 in the last "hedging" all others "over" my two live choices in the exacta pools in case one finished second. Love this wager. A mini tournament of handicaping with a low takeout daily.

[1st time lasix]

****Some excellent payouts over the March weekend at Gulfstream and Tampa for those that could find the longshot in the sequences. I didn't fare well at either venue over the weekend. I made some donations. I managed to "squeak out" the Big A pk five when a relentless closing Don Tito managed to win by a head bob in the fifth on Sunday. Very close photo,,,which made all the difference against the "odds on" in last leg. There was even a scratch at the gate which would have cut the payout to the chalk even smaller. A 1500 signer for fifty cents appeared like an overlay considering the pick four was only 132 for same denomination. Lucky indeed! Nationwide--- the pools for the pick five are still gaining momentum.....although I assume that massive pick six jackpot at GP may be diverting some attention. It appears this wager continues to garner more play {particularly in California} and very little real strategy information is readily available. Assume many attack with the Crist method of ticket structure. Some likely still use the "caveman" method. Looking forward to Keeneland. Good luck!

[Ray]

People who refuse to play rainbow 6 because of the take out are misinformed or not paying attn... Once the carryover gets to be around a million there is big value created for the "consolation" 6 of 6 winners...the syndicates and big ticket players are shooting for the jackpot and these people are badly over betting hopeless longshots and trying to be the only ticket. So when u get too much money on 50-1 shots it leaves money for the more logical horses.
Example Sunday rainbow 6 winners
$9.80
$5.80
$15.20
$3.00
$5.60
$21.20
20¢ 6 of 6 paid $1,454.70
50¢ pick 5 paid $576.15

Friday
$29.60
$6.00
$4.20
$39.80
$15.80
$7.20
20¢ 6 of 6 $40,872
50¢ pick 5 $3,920

Like I said this starts when they get close to $1,000,000 and get better as the jackpot goes up.. So I have just been playing to hit 6 not even trying for the jackpot. Despite the awful take out a lot of ot is being evened out by overplaying hopeless bombs. Some of u may wanna reconsider the rainbow 6.

[Stillriledup]

People who refuse to play rainbow 6 because of the take out are misinformed or not paying attn... Once the carryover gets to be around a million there is big value created for the "consolation" 6 of 6 winners...the syndicates and big ticket players are shooting for the jackpot and these people are badly over betting hopeless longshots and trying to be the only ticket. So when u get too much money on 50-1 shots it leaves money for the more logical horses.
Example Sunday rainbow 6 winners
$9.80
$5.80
$15.20
$3.00
$5.60
$21.20
20¢ 6 of 6 paid $1,454.70
50¢ pick 5 paid $576.15

Friday
$29.60
$6.00
$4.20
$39.80
$15.80
$7.20
20¢ 6 of 6 $40,872
50¢ pick 5 $3,920

Like I said this starts when they get close to $1,000,000 and get better as the jackpot goes up.. So I have just been playing to hit 6 not even trying for the jackpot. Despite the awful take out a lot of ot is being evened out by overplaying hopeless bombs. Some of u may wanna reconsider the rainbow 6.

Its a great bet if you're not actually trying to be the only winner....if you bet it like a normal pick 6, and stick with horses who are actual contenders, the "random" stabbing that occurs more than makes up for the high "takeout". 30-1 shots with no real chance may have more money on them than horses who are legit contenders.

[1st time lasix]

Friday at Tampa I was alive to four horses in the pick five sequence. Already nailed a couple of priced horses so I was anxious to see the will pays. They abruptly took the final "off the turf"---- without a cloud in the sky or a drop of rain. Of course ya' know what happened.... Instead of winning 11 k when the seven won the race {on the dirt instead}--- everyone got a $977 consolation. I understand that---- due to the surface switch....but at the simulcast venue without tv volume...no one really knew why they elected to change.

[AndyC]

People who refuse to play rainbow 6 because of the take out are misinformed or not paying attn... Once the carryover gets to be around a million there is big value created for the "consolation" 6 of 6 winners...the syndicates and big ticket players are shooting for the jackpot and these people are badly over betting hopeless longshots and trying to be the only ticket. So when u get too much money on 50-1 shots it leaves money for the more logical horses.
Example Sunday rainbow 6 winners
$9.80
$5.80
$15.20
$3.00
$5.60
$21.20
20¢ 6 of 6 paid $1,454.70
50¢ pick 5 paid $576.15

Friday
$29.60
$6.00
$4.20
$39.80
$15.80
$7.20
20¢ 6 of 6 $40,872
50¢ pick 5 $3,920

Like I said this starts when they get close to $1,000,000 and get better as the jackpot goes up.. So I have just been playing to hit 6 not even trying for the jackpot. Despite the awful take out a lot of ot is being evened out by overplaying hopeless bombs. Some of u may wanna reconsider the rainbow 6.


The Sunday example is an underlay. Six logical contenders. Friday with 2 pretty good prices it was an overlay. I am not convinced that the shooting the moon type betting has made the bet fertile for overlays.