Pick Six at Belmont

[Clocker]

The only live horse in the final race in the Pick Six was the 5, Precious Metal, going off at 10-1. Guess who won? Pay off $532K.

[Stillriledup]

wow, interesting. :D

I won't cry conspiracy (Unless the ticket is A/A/A/A/ single single) on this one because this pick 6 wasnt impossible. Sure, you needed a big bankroll to hit it, but there wasnt a winner that came in who wasnt without some sort of a chance. I didnt like the chalk in either of the last 2 races, it wasnt a big stretch that they both lost.

[the little guy]

Yesterday one horse wasn't covered. It won.

All part of a completely different conspiracy I assume?

[Irish Boy]

Yesterday one horse wasn't covered. It won.

All part of a completely different conspiracy I assume?
Sounds like you're in on it.

[Clocker]

wow, interesting. :D

I won't cry conspiracy

I wouldn't say conspiracy, but I'd guess that someone singling that horse in that race might just be his connections, having a better opinion of his condition than the PPs showed.

[Irish Boy]

I wouldn't say conspiracy, but I'd guess that someone singling that horse in that race might just be his connections, having a better opinion of his condition than the PPs showed.
You still have to get through the first five, which literally no one else did.

[Stillriledup]

I wouldn't say conspiracy, but I'd guess that someone singling that horse in that race might just be his connections, having a better opinion of his condition than the PPs showed.

I've singled horses in the pick 4, 5 and 6 and when the betting opened up, i was shocked to find that my horse wasnt 5-2, but was 10-1 instead. Maybe the person who singled this horse thought he was a major contender, and the public just whiffed.

[Clocker]

Maybe the person who singled this horse thought he was a major contender, and the public just whiffed.

I don't have it in front of me, but I believe the ML was 15-1.

[cordep17]

I don't get the false assumption that you have to put a lot of money into these things. If it won, it was meant to win. Sounds like good handicapping to me.
Maybe in this guys eyes, that horse was the clear winner.

[the little guy]

I don't get the false assumption that you have to put a lot of money into these things. If it won, it was meant to win. Sounds like good handicapping to me.
Maybe in this guys eyes, that horse was the clear winner.

The likelihood that the winning ticket was the only ticket the winning bettor played is extremely low. If you don't think hitting today's Pick-6 took a serious investment, you are likely mistaken.

[infrontby1]

Most impressive,

But what also baffles me is the first four legs were won by horses all paying paying under $10.20, two of them being favorites.

If this were a California two day pick six carryover, even with the long shot winning the fifth leg, there would be scores of potential winning tickets heading into the last leg.

Congratulations to whoever hit it today whether it was grandma's lucky numbers or the whale syndicates.

[the little guy]

Most impressive,

But what also baffles me is the first four legs were won by horses all paying paying under $10.20, two of them being favorites.

If this were a California two day pick six carryover, even with the long shot winning the fifth leg, there would be scores of potential winning tickets heading into the last leg.

Congratulations to whoever hit it today whether it was grandma's lucky numbers or the whale syndicates.

Really, you think the serious players in today's Pick-6 differ significantly from those that play California carryovers? I beg to differ.

The winner of the 9th race was likely around 100:1 in Pick-6 play. That would have been the case in California as well. I don't disagree with the opinion that it's a bit surprising that a few more horses weren't covered, but it's not as surprising as it seems on the surface. The biggest single in the sequence, Strapping Groom, also lost. Yes, the winner was 7:2, but likely not in Pick-6 wagering, especially in conjunction with the crazy 9th winner.

[Irish Boy]

The likelihood that the winning ticket was the only ticket the winning bettor played is extremely low. If you don't think hitting today's Pick-6 took a serious investment, you are likely mistaken.
I agree but crazy things happen. Mike Tice took down an entire Del Mar carryover pool with a $128 ticket. And you'd think the big boys would have had lots of tickets alive today after the first five races.

More than likely this was probably a "C" ticket for a big swinger though. Good for whoever took it down. It would have just about paid off my student loans after taxes for me!

[Stillriledup]

Today's pick 6 was really hard due to no real "single". The day before, you had that wedding horse who was a "free bingo square" but today, no such horse.

That's what made it really hard.

[tanner12oz]

Most impressive,

But what also baffles me is the first four legs were won by horses all paying paying under $10.20, two of them being favorites.

If this were a California two day pick six carryover, even with the long shot winning the fifth leg, there would be scores of potential winning tickets heading into the last leg.

Congratulations to whoever hit it today whether it was grandma's lucky numbers or the whale syndicates.

multirace exotics play wildly different in ca vs. Ny...im with you 100%..

[infrontby1]

I have notice throughout the recent Del Mar meet, which had quite a few large carry over days this summer than in the past, when the potential payouts would be displayed for the last race which always had a large field, I would always see at least a handful of runners covered in that last leg regardless that there were a few bombs in the first few legs.

This pick six yesterday was very unusual.

The first four legs by itself were easily covered by the majority of players.

Then came the unexpected bomb. Yes the heavy favorite was probably the single on many tickets, but the syndicates always have back ups on their tickets in these situations.

And then came the final leg. 12 horses and only one was covered which wasn't even one of the three choices in the race.

In Southern California, two massive bombs could win the first five legs and you would always see at least 4 or 5 of the public choices spread in the final leg.


Regardless, the winning ticket was purchased at the Elite Turf Club Vegas and it was a job well done.

[rrpic6]

I have notice throughout the recent Del Mar meet, which had quite a few large carry over days this summer than in the past, when the potential payouts would be displayed for the last race which always had a large field, I would always see at least a handful of runners covered in that last leg regardless that there were a few bombs in the first few legs.

This pick six yesterday was very unusual.

The first four legs by itself were easily covered by the majority of players.

Then came the unexpected bomb. Yes the heavy favorite was probably the single on many tickets, but the syndicates always have back ups on their tickets in these situations.

And then came the final leg. 12 horses and only one was covered which wasn't even one of the three choices in the race.

In Southern California, two massive bombs could win the first five legs and you would always see at least 4 or 5 of the public choices spread in the final leg.


Regardless, the winning ticket was purchased at the Elite Turf Club Vegas and it was a job well done.

Excellent observations! I only got to see the last race of the sequence, so I won't comment too much on what transpired earlier in the card. That was true drama at the finish line! Talk about a celebration! If LUCK ever comes back to HBO, that race should be replayed in a storyline.

RR

[the little guy]

The first four legs by itself were easily covered by the majority of players.





This is not true. As I said before, while the winner of the 4th leg was 7:2, the favorite ( Strapping Groom ) was the biggest single of the sequence, which means that the first four winners were not " easily " covered by the majority of players. Not even close in fact.

Putting winning tickets together is a whole lot tougher than the vast majority of people think. Scanning results, and then declaring a sequence easy, is folly.

[Stillriledup]

In front,

Andy is right about this particular sequence, there was no race in the entire 6 race sequence where you could have gone less than 4 deep and felt "safe".

While some of the early winners were short prices, they werent good picks at the prices, the winner of Leg 2 was visually unimpressive (to say the least) at Saratoga and had a little bit of a freshening, she wasn't a strong 5-2 shot by any stretch, although she is the type of horse who got bet off the board in July and crushed while showing nothing on paper....so, she's an in and outer who is pretty good on her best day...but not trustworthy at all, leg 2 was a wide open race where you almost had to go "almost all" to feel safe.

Same thing with leg 3, even though the winner got bet down to 2-1, he wasnt a horse you could single with confidence, that was another race where plenty of them had a shot.