Repeaters by class level

[howardjim]

Has anyone compiled or aware of a broad based repeater study via class level.Many sources approximate an 18% win rate which ballparks my experience,though they take it no further.Most of my bets are at the low end of lower class tracks,such as SUF and PHA,and the conditioned claiming races at the 4-5000 level rarely repeat,while the overall rate stays around 18%.I would appreciate any insights.

[Brian Flewwelling]

Let me find out if i understand what you are looking for: You want the Win% of horses that won their previous race.

and you want it broken down by Track and Class (and gender? and age?)

or do you want it in terms of rising class vs same class?

Brian

[howardjim]

Brian:Thanks for the response.My preferences are repeat within 30 days without regard to gender,age or class movement at a similar distance (sprint or route) and surface.Specific track histories would be icing on the cake.The primary sort of interest is the above by class level at which the repeat is attempted,from low claiming to graded stakes.

[Brian Flewwelling]

The posting looks wonderful in the editor. not so in the preview??
---(If you want this data in Excel format, email me with an explanation of why i did this)

Counts races within 30 days of last race, and that race was a win
for all tracks, races from 2002/01/01 to Friday
consider only cases where number of races N, is >=10
grouped by ClassType, but not level
(i suppose i could do Claimers by some grouping of prices??)


Track Surface Class N Win win%
ALB Dirt A 61 5 8
ALB Dirt Clm 122 15 12
ALB Dirt Stk 51 10 20
AP Dirt A 258 42 16
AP Dirt Clm 371 59 16
AP Dirt Hcp 20 4 20
AP Dirt SA 21 2 10
AP Dirt Stk 80 14 18
AP Turf A 113 16 14
AP Turf Clm 68 7 10
AP Turf SA 18 4 22
AP Turf Stk 62 10 16
AQU Dirt A 764 101 13
AQU Dirt Clm 467 67 14
AQU Dirt Stk 215 24 11
AQU Turf A 37 1 3
AQU Turf Stk 31 3 10
ARP Dirt A 63 5 8
ARP Dirt Clm 114 17 15
ARP Dirt SA 16 1 6
ARP Dirt Stk 36 8 22
ASD Dirt A 84 14 17
ASD Dirt Clm 377 62 16
ASD Dirt Stk 49 14 29
ATL Turf SA 11 0 0
BEL Dirt A 263 40 15
BEL Dirt Clm 188 28 15
BEL Dirt Stk 186 30 16
BEL Turf A 169 16 9
BEL Turf Clm 86 6 7
BEL Turf Stk 89 10 11
BEU Dirt A 115 20 17
BEU Dirt Clm 697 121 17
BEU Dirt SA 89 16 18
BEU Dirt Stk 32 7 22
BM Dirt A 84 17 20
BM Dirt Clm 467 92 20
BM Dirt SA 58 12 21
BM Dirt Stk 42 6 14
BM Turf A 55 10 18
BM Turf Clm 119 26 22
BM Turf SA 45 7 16
BM Turf Stk 34 4 12
BMF Dirt Clm 50 10 20
BMF Turf Clm 12 4 33
BOI Dirt A 34 7 21
BOI Dirt Clm 138 27 20
BOI Dirt SA 12 2 17
BOI Dirt Stk 45 10 22
BRD Dirt A 79 11 14
BRD Dirt Clm 47 7 15
CBY Dirt A 75 14 19
CBY Dirt Clm 174 31 18
CBY Dirt SA 20 4 20
CBY Dirt Sst 23 3 13
CBY Dirt Stk 56 8 14
CBY Turf A 50 9 18
CBY Turf Clm 28 2 7
CBY Turf Stk 12 2 17
CD Dirt A 257 43 17
CD Dirt Clm 348 37 11
CD Dirt SA 28 0 0
CD Dirt Stk 87 8 9
CD Turf A 109 13 12
CD Turf Clm 18 1 6
CD Turf Stk 53 4 8
CLS Dirt A 18 1 6
CLS Dirt Clm 128 23 18
CLS Dirt SA 10 1 10
CLS Dirt Stk 19 3 16
CNL Dirt A 20 4 20
CNL Dirt Clm 36 3 8
CNL Turf A 82 11 13
CNL Turf Clm 78 8 10
CNL Turf SA 10 0 0
CNL Turf Stk 27 4 15
CRC Dirt A 534 84 16
CRC Dirt Clm 718 103 14
CRC Dirt Stk 190 25 13
CRC Turf A 247 25 10
CRC Turf Clm 10 1 10
CRC Turf Stk 110 13 12
CT Dirt A 561 73 13
CT Dirt Clm 1771 257 15
CT Dirt SA 80 14 18
CT Dirt Stk 66 16 24
DED Dirt A 310 48 15
DED Dirt Clm 568 83 15
DED Dirt SA 43 9 21
DED Dirt Stk 111 10 9
DEL Dirt A 434 46 11
DEL Dirt Clm 846 142 17
DEL Dirt Stk 127 13 10
DEL Turf A 64 4 6
DEL Turf Clm 44 4 9
DEL Turf Stk 25 1 4
DMR Dirt A 50 7 14
DMR Dirt Clm 94 25 27
DMR Dirt SA 40 4 10
DMR Dirt Stk 62 9 15
DMR Turf A 60 12 20
DMR Turf Clm 19 2 11
DMR Turf Stk 36 3 8
ELC Dirt A 100 24 24
ELC Dirt Clm 510 114 22
ELC Dirt Stk 35 8 23
ELP Dirt A 64 7 11
ELP Dirt Clm 144 24 17
ELP Dirt SA 21 2 10
ELP Dirt Stk 26 4 15
ELP Turf A 58 9 16
ELP Turf Clm 26 6 23
EMD Dirt A 59 9 15
EMD Dirt Clm 583 103 18
EMD Dirt SA 25 5 20
EMD Dirt Stk 80 14 18
EUR Dirt Clm 21 4 19
EVD Dirt A 73 11 15
EVD Dirt Clm 511 78 15
EVD Dirt SA 36 4 11
EVD Dirt Stk 33 6 18
FAR Dirt Clm 18 4 22
FAR Dirt Stk 12 1 8
FE Dirt A 156 19 12
FE Dirt Clm 681 125 18
FE Dirt SA 45 7 16
FE Dirt Stk 22 5 23
FE Turf Clm 25 1 4
FE Turf SA 19 3 16
FE Turf Stk 10 1 10
FER Dirt Clm 13 2 15
FG Dirt A 261 46 18
FG Dirt Clm 376 65 17
FG Dirt SA 29 2 7
FG Dirt Stk 123 16 13
FG Turf A 168 30 18
FG Turf Clm 88 10 11
FG Turf SA 25 6 24
FG Turf Stk 34 4 12
FL Dirt A 458 86 19
FL Dirt Clm 734 130 18
FL Dirt SA 35 10 29
FL Dirt Stk 39 2 5
FMT Dirt A 30 4 13
FMT Dirt Clm 45 9 20
FNO Dirt Clm 30 5 17
FON Dirt A 72 12 17
FON Dirt Clm 169 37 22
FON Dirt SA 27 6 22
FON Dirt Stk 33 6 18
FP Dirt A 247 44 18
FP Dirt Clm 522 79 15
FP Dirt Hcp 13 2 15
FP Dirt SA 15 4 27
FP Dirt Stk 29 7 24
FPX Dirt A 14 4 29
FPX Dirt Clm 82 15 18
FPX Dirt SA 27 4 15
FPX Dirt Stk 38 6 16
GF Dirt A 22 1 5
GF Dirt Clm 27 4 15
GG Dirt A 172 23 13
GG Dirt Clm 675 132 20
GG Dirt SA 123 19 15
GG Dirt Stk 53 10 19
GG Turf A 25 4 16
GG Turf Clm 53 11 21
GG Turf SA 29 8 28
GG Turf Stk 11 0 0
GLD Dirt A 170 27 16
GLD Dirt Clm 649 102 16
GLD Dirt SA 13 2 15
GLD Dirt Stk 43 10 23
GP Dirt A 362 57 16
GP Dirt Clm 533 90 17
GP Dirt SA 38 11 29
GP Dirt Stk 149 22 15
GP Turf A 205 21 10
GP Turf Clm 71 8 11
GP Turf SA 11 3 27
GP Turf Stk 65 8 12
GPR Dirt A 24 7 29
GRP Dirt A 12 1 8
GRP Dirt Clm 71 15 21
GRP Dirt Stk 19 2 11
HAW Dirt A 352 50 14
HAW Dirt Clm 501 83 17
HAW Dirt Stk 85 15 18
HAW Turf A 52 6 12
HAW Turf Clm 26 3 12
HAW Turf Stk 15 3 20
HOL Dirt A 101 20 20
HOL Dirt Clm 176 38 22
HOL Dirt SA 73 13 18
HOL Dirt Stk 94 10 11
HOL Turf A 136 21 15
HOL Turf Clm 71 10 14
HOL Turf SA 16 2 13
HOL Turf Stk 76 10 13
HOO Dirt A 148 15 10
HOO Dirt Clm 348 57 16
HOO Dirt SA 27 4 15
HOO Dirt Stk 53 9 17
HOU Dirt A 209 23 11
HOU Dirt Clm 416 63 15
HOU Dirt SA 34 4 12
HOU Dirt Stk 67 12 18
HOU Turf A 94 10 11
HOU Turf Clm 66 9 14
HOU Turf Stk 16 1 6
HPO Dirt SA 13 3 23
HST Dirt A 142 27 19
HST Dirt Clm 306 47 15
HST Dirt Hoc 10 2 20
HST Dirt Stk 90 17 19
IND Dirt A 93 8 9
IND Dirt Clm 107 13 12
IND Dirt SA 26 7 27
IND Dirt Stk 19 2 11
KD Turf A 19 4 21
KD Turf Clm 12 0 0
KD Turf Stk 14 4 29
KEE Dirt A 134 20 15
KEE Dirt Clm 76 9 12
KEE Dirt SA 19 4 21
KEE Dirt Stk 36 5 14
KEE Turf A 79 8 10
KEE Turf Stk 58 7 12
LA Dirt Clm 359 70 19
LAD Dirt A 163 15 9
LAD Dirt Clm 369 43 12
LAD Dirt SA 19 6 32
LAD Dirt Stk 87 16 18
LAD Turf A 90 16 18
LAD Turf Clm 92 9 10
LAD Turf SA 16 5 31
LAD Turf Stk 33 4 12
LBG Dirt A 62 17 27
LBG Dirt Clm 74 9 12
LBG Dirt Stk 40 8 20
LNN Dirt A 36 5 14
LNN Dirt Clm 163 21 13
LNN Dirt Stk 15 2 13
LRL Dirt A 646 103 16
LRL Dirt Clm 735 115 16
LRL Dirt SA 31 6 19
LRL Dirt Stk 160 19 12
LRL Turf A 61 9 15
LRL Turf SA 12 0 0
LRL Turf Stk 18 3 17
LS Dirt A 154 24 16
LS Dirt Clm 295 41 14
LS Dirt Stk 64 11 17
LS Turf A 76 7 9
LS Turf Clm 41 3 7
LS Turf SA 11 2 18
LS Turf Stk 20 2 10
MAN Dirt Clm 18 2 11
MD Dirt A 42 10 24
MD Dirt Clm 93 23 25
MD Dirt Stk 22 7 32
MED Dirt A 93 8 9
MED Dirt Clm 70 11 16
MED Dirt Stk 29 6 21
MED Turf A 49 4 8
MED Turf Clm 24 6 25
MED Turf Stk 17 1 6
MNR Dirt A 405 60 15
MNR Dirt Clm 1535 237 15
MNR Dirt SA 177 27 15
MNR Dirt Stk 67 8 12
MNR Turf A 24 3 13
MNR Turf Clm 23 4 17
MPM Dirt A 10 1 10
MPM Dirt Clm 23 3 13
MTH Dirt A 371 47 13
MTH Dirt Clm 339 48 14
MTH Dirt SHc 11 1 9
MTH Dirt Stk 136 17 13
MTH Turf A 68 6 9
MTH Turf Clm 46 9 20
MTH Turf Stk 67 6 9
NMP Dirt Clm 36 7 19
NP Dirt A 78 12 15
NP Dirt Clm 359 65 18
NP Dirt Stk 72 13 18
OP Dirt A 217 31 14
OP Dirt Clm 337 51 15
OP Dirt SA 55 11 20
OP Dirt Stk 72 12 17
PEN Dirt A 200 28 14
PEN Dirt Clm 1352 228 17
PEN Dirt SA 57 13 23
PEN Dirt Stk 15 2 13
PEN Turf A 18 2 11
PEN Turf Clm 36 3 8
PEN Turf Stk 10 1 10
PHA Dirt A 586 90 15
PHA Dirt Clm 1320 177 13
PHA Dirt SA 56 8 14
PHA Dirt SHc 65 12 18
PHA Dirt Stk 65 8 12
PHA Turf A 23 2 9
PHA Turf Clm 35 4 11
PHA Turf Stk 16 0 0
PIM Dirt A 319 46 14
PIM Dirt Clm 260 42 16
PIM Dirt Stk 71 11 15
PIM Turf A 74 6 8
PIM Turf Clm 10 2 20
PIM Turf SA 20 4 20
PIM Turf Stk 20 2 10
PLN Dirt A 14 3 21
PLN Dirt Clm 61 11 18
PLN Dirt Stk 18 3 17
PM Dirt A 89 20 22
PM Dirt Clm 490 74 15
PM Dirt SA 18 3 17
PM Dirt Stk 68 11 16
PRM Dirt A 267 25 9
PRM Dirt Clm 342 52 15
PRM Dirt Stk 88 14 16
RD Dirt A 150 18 12
RD Dirt Clm 464 59 13
RD Dirt SA 47 6 13
RD Dirt Stk 22 6 27
RD Turf A 21 2 10
RD Turf Clm 20 2 10
RET Dirt A 56 7 13
RET Dirt Clm 167 30 18
RET Dirt Stk 16 3 19
RET Turf A 38 7 18
RET Turf Clm 38 7 18
RET Turf Stk 12 1 8
RIL Dirt Clm 17 1 6
RP Dirt A 126 19 15
RP Dirt Clm 216 30 14
RP Dirt SA 18 4 22
RP Dirt Stk 41 4 10
RP Turf A 43 2 5
RP Turf Clm 25 5 20
RP Turf Stk 20 3 15
RUI Dirt A 85 20 24
RUI Dirt Clm 114 15 13
RUI Dirt Stk 41 10 24
SA Dirt A 190 30 16
SA Dirt Clm 333 76 23
SA Dirt SA 111 11 10
SA Dirt Stk 217 29 13
SA Turf A 177 30 17
SA Turf Clm 66 14 21
SA Turf SA 19 4 21
SA Turf Stk 115 16 14
SAC Dirt Clm 56 11 20
SAR Dirt A 133 16 12
SAR Dirt Clm 109 18 17
SAR Dirt Stk 83 15 18
SAR Turf A 80 9 11
SAR Turf Clm 47 5 11
SAR Turf Stk 48 8 17
SOL Dirt Clm 59 8 14
SR Dirt Clm 58 8 14
SR Dirt Stk 13 1 8
SRP Dirt A 48 9 19
SRP Dirt Clm 132 30 23
SRP Dirt Stk 29 9 31
STK Dirt Clm 39 4 10
STP Dirt A 54 10 19
STP Dirt Clm 199 33 17
STP Dirt Stk 19 5 26
SUF Dirt A 438 63 14
SUF Dirt Clm 642 94 15
SUF Dirt Stk 84 16 19
SUF Turf A 23 1 4
SUF Turf Clm 33 6 18
SUN Dirt A 237 39 16
SUN Dirt Clm 368 71 19
SUN Dirt Stk 79 15 19
TAM Dirt A 278 40 14
TAM Dirt Clm 579 75 13
TAM Dirt SA 51 8 16
TAM Dirt Stk 84 12 14
TAM Turf A 151 22 15
TAM Turf Clm 43 3 7
TAM Turf SA 13 4 31
TAM Turf SHc 17 6 35
TAM Turf Stk 28 3 11
TDN Dirt A 138 28 20
TDN Dirt Clm 890 136 15
TDN Dirt SA 41 9 22
TDN Dirt Stk 47 10 21
TIM Dirt A 19 4 21
TIM Dirt Clm 29 2 7
TP Dirt A 287 38 13
TP Dirt Clm 758 94 12
TP Dirt SA 51 6 12
TP Dirt Stk 103 13 13
TUP Dirt A 156 21 13
TUP Dirt Clm 1111 195 18
TUP Dirt SA 42 7 17
TUP Dirt Stk 118 22 19
TUP Turf A 80 10 13
TUP Turf Clm 81 16 20
TUP Turf SHc 10 1 10
TUP Turf Stk 40 5 13
WDS Dirt A 48 5 10
WDS Dirt Clm 145 14 10
WDS Dirt Stk 24 5 21
WO Dirt A 422 74 18
WO Dirt Clm 639 86 13
WO Dirt Stk 164 34 21
WO Turf A 129 10 8
WO Turf Clm 25 2 8
WO Turf Stk 83 11 13
WYO Dirt Clm 11 4 36
YAV Dirt A 36 7 19
YAV Dirt Clm 257 50 19
YAV Dirt Stk 30 4 13
YD Dirt Clm 27 4 15


Now would you be so kind as to tell me what you could possibly do do with this :)

Brian

[howardjim]

Brian:I am in your debt...will probably combine the results for tracks of similar class,note any anomalies with sufficient sample size,and utilize the oversimplified,blind odds of repeating to set minimum acceptable odds.If it is readily available,a breakdown of claiming levels or groups would gild the lily,especially at the lowest tags.

I can appreciate this may all seem of questionable import...my betting is very price-sensitive and often involves circuits of no familiarity...I have always fared better,financially and emotionally, with a rough idea of repeater's success.Without a database such as yours,even ballparking a number is pure tedium and difficult to build a representative population.

Many thanks,I hope to return the favor.

Mark Fogarty at hmarkfogarty@hotmail.com

[andicap]

very interesting...

belmont claimer was 15%
Penn Natinal claimer was 17%

And yet Penn National is considered less predictive because of the lower quality of the horse. If horses repeat MORE often could that indicate these horses hold their form longer?
just wondering?


field size is probably about equal I would say.

[Brian Flewwelling]

andicap

One is ill-advised to make judgments based on 2 percentage points

Brian

[HTRFGuy]

Originally posted by andicap
very interesting...

belmont claimer was 15%
Penn Natinal claimer was 17%

And yet Penn National is considered less predictive because of the lower quality of the horse. If horses repeat MORE often could that indicate these horses hold their form longer?
just wondering?

field size is probably about equal I would say.

You may be able to conclude more about form cycle by looking at these stats from Gulfstream. Unfortunately not by class.

Won Prior w/i 60 days

IV ROI F (% Winners)
1.46 $ 1.13 389 All Races (18.2%)
1.60 $ 1.56 171 Sprints (19.9%)
1.35 $ .79 218 Routes (12.5%)
1.25 $ .74 101 Turf (15.8%)

Won Back 2 w/i 60 days
IV ROI F (% Winners)
1.18 $ .74 217 All Races (14.7%)
.95 $ .50 104 Sprints (12.5%)
1.41 $ .96 113 Routes (17.7%)
1.09 $ .90 46 Turf (13.0%)

Won Back 3 w/i 60 days
IV ROI F (% Winners)
1.01 $ .51 63 All Races (12.7%)
.67 $ .54 34 Sprints ( 8.8%)
1.45 $ .47 29 Routes (17.2%)
.00 $ .00 6 Turf ( 0.0)

F is the frequency (count) of entries in the population.
The population of each successive group naturally declines.
Prior win not necessarily at Gulfstream.

Covers 454 races, 3,627 entries started.

[hurrikane]

I think to have value this would have to include class(however you measure that) and age group. It's a lot easier for a 4yo to carry form than a 7 yo. same on the class level. Multiple wins on the top level is not uncommon but a 2500 clm repeating at CT come few and far between. Just MO