2014 KY Derby futures

[horses4courses]

It's early, but with the shortest quote at 50-1, might be worth a look if you have a hunch...... :cool:

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2013-10-24/kentucky-derby-odds-2014-honor-code-havana-tap-it-rich-ride-on-curlin-las-vegas

[GallopApace]

The ones I'm keeping an eye on in particular are 175-1, 150-1, 125-1, 125-1, 100-1, and 50-1. Interesting. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

The ones I'm keeping an eye on in particular are 175-1, 150-1, 125-1, 125-1, 100-1, and 50-1. Interesting. :ThmbUp:
couple of 50-1s here

Maybe more after I 'cap the Juvenile breeders cup race, but all I can think of is Honor Code, and Tap It Rich.
They are definitely their own personalities, but(looks, trainer, style) may remind some of Orb and Flashback.

/Of the two, Honor Code may be my sentimental favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

Tap It Rich didn't handle the class hike as well as I expected. That was a tough race, but the on-air talent made a big deal about him getting out, and they could have a point as he did appear to want to be wide and running his own race (to his detriment). Baffert I think said that if this weren't at home, he may not have shipped the 2yo.
Could go either way.

[Leparoux]

Stopped by Wynn yesterday before we left Vegas and Honor Code is 10-1 :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

Although one generation removed on the female side from being the exact pedigree,New Year's Day is identical to Street Sense.Has enough stamina and is from two of the classiest pedigrees out there in Street Cry/Dixie Union.

[horses4courses]

Tap It Rich didn't handle the class hike as well as I expected. That was a tough race, but the on-air talent made a big deal about him getting out, and they could have a point as he did appear to want to be wide and running his own race (to his detriment). Baffert I think said that if this weren't at home, he may not have shipped the 2yo.
Could go either way.

Clocker Bruno De Julio was pretty outspoken about Tap It Rich's poor action leading up to this race. He has a tendency to lug out, and he felt it would hurt his chances. Another experienced clocker from So Cal, Toby Turrell, felt he would win the race. Go figure.......

[horses4courses]

Churchill Downs is offering a futures pool on the last weekend of this month.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/theraces/2013/11/churchill-offers-another-kentucky-derby-future-wager

[davew]

this far out, less than 20% of my previously bet horses even started

I have seen some futures that are just listing 26 - the first letter of the winning horses name:D


good luck with your hunches / connections

[highnote]

Honor Code is the early KYD favorite.

Dr. Z (Professor William Ziemba) owns a share of him.

Honor Code needs to have a good race Saturday in the Remsen. A poor race would be disappointing for the owners.

[jefftune]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Pool One is this week!

I guess a field/field exacta would be my play.

[horses4courses]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Pool One is this week!

I guess a field/field exacta would be my play.

I think it's a logical choice, but have my doubts about value.
What sort of return would you expect?

Also, the field is usually #24 on the list of betting interests.
Will the tote system accept a 24 with 24 selection?

P.S.
It won't accept it.
You have to play a #1-23 under #24.
Should "the field" fill the WPS (or even more) of the official placings, the next highest finisher of numbers 1-23 on this list will be the 2nd part of this exacta

[peeptoad]

This remains the worst bet in horse racing imho. I've tried 3 times and the only time I've been anywhere close was Pioneerof the Nile in 2008. No thanks.

[Bennie]

I have had some success with the futures, although recent years were tougher. 2004 Smarty Jones at 125-1. (vegas odds)
2005 Giacomo
2006 Barbaro
2008 Big Brown
2013 Orb

It's a personal challenge to me and by the time the Derby comes around I feel I have learned about as much as I can about all the entries from handicapping the futures cards.
This far out is another story though. Honor Code will take money in this first pool and I have the feeling pools will be short because of Thanksgiving gatherings and due to the fact lots of don't even know it is happening. I don't think it will take too much money to change the odds dramatically on any horse and if you can't get at least 20-1 or better on a horse, it's not worth it even if just for fun. All others will probably stay below even money and it will be the "safest" bet, but who want 2/5?
I do have interest in 3 horses in this pool and will check the odds and exacta prices before the pool closes. 25-1 odds to win and 50-1 odds exacta minimums required. Any bets will be "fun" bets not more than $2 and $4

[judd]

CLEBURNE 50-1

[tanner12oz]

What time does this close Saturday?

[Vigorish]

The biggest drawback to this wager is the lack of entrants. Churchill Downs claims there is a technical issue relating to their hardware, which prevents them from offering more than 24 entrants. This excuse doesn't really seem credible in today's world. But for some confounded reason they don't want to make an investment in updating their infrastructure.

Steve Crist wrote an excellent editorial a while back suggesting they include the top 300 or so prospects. I like this idea. My personal suggestion is that they include at least 100 of the highest ranked 2 year olds. Next, they could lower the takeout to 10% on WPS (and keep the 19% vig on exactas if they desire). This would make them more competitive with Vegas and offshore race books and generate a lot of interest in the Kentucky Derby as well as the prep races. I know I felt more invested having bet into pools 1 and 2 last year. If there was a larger assortment of betting interests, my investment and interest would have even greater.

My suggestion is to contact Churchill Downs and let them know of your preference. I have contacted them by email and every time I speak with one of their support or technical support staff (at Twinspires) I tell them of my preference. Perhaps if a critical mass of fans indicated interest, they might feel motivated to make this possible.

[Vigorish]

What time does this close Saturday?


From the Twinspires home page: "The four-day pool will open at Noon ET on Wednesday, Nov. 27 and close on Nov. 30 prior to post time for either the $400,000 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct or the $175,000 Kentucky Jockey Club, which ever race comes first."

The post time of the Remsen is 2:51 (ET) while the KJC is expected to start at approximately 5:35 (ET). Thus, it would be wise to get your bets in before about 2:45 (ET).

[Hoofless_Wonder]

What's worse - "Black Friday" shopping beginning on Thanksgiving Day, or Pool 1 of the 2014 Kentucky Derby Futures in November?

Okay, :20: Shared Belief at 32-1 (currently)....

[Bennie]

I will be playing a couple of fun bets as mentioned previously, but the issue I have is not knowing at this early stage, who is even going to be "nominated" to run in the Derby? Half these might not even have any intention of running in the Derby. Based on some previous races, there are some "sprinters" and some "turf" horses that may never run a distance of ground or even on dirt.
The horses I will be using in my bets, if odds are still playable tomorrow afternoon will be:
:6: Commissioner
:10: Honor Code
:16: Noble Moon
and the field
I will also be keeping an eye on Bondholder, Ride on Curlin and Tapit Rich in the future and see how they develop.

[tanner12oz]

The biggest drawback to this wager is the lack of entrants. Churchill Downs claims there is a technical issue relating to their hardware, which prevents them from offering more than 24 entrants. This excuse doesn't really seem credible in today's world. But for some confounded reason they don't want to make an investment in updating their infrastructure.

Steve Crist wrote an excellent editorial a while back suggesting they include the top 300 or so prospects. I like this idea. My personal suggestion is that they include at least 100 of the highest ranked 2 year olds. Next, they could lower the takeout to 10% on WPS (and keep the 19% vig on exactas if they desire). This would make them more competitive with Vegas and offshore race books and generate a lot of interest in the Kentucky Derby as well as the prep races. I know I felt more invested having bet into pools 1 and 2 last year. If there was a larger assortment of betting interests, my investment and interest would have even greater.

My suggestion is to contact Churchill Downs and let them know of your preference. I have contacted them by email and every time I speak with one of their support or technical support staff (at Twinspires) I tell them of my preference. Perhaps if a critical mass of fans indicated interest, they might feel motivated to make this possible.

horses are 350-1 with 24 interests can you imagine odds with 100 or 300 interests? Would be wild to say the least

[horses4courses]

Yesterday, I purchased horse racing's version of a short term CD.
It matures in around five months, on Derby Day.

I only risked the paltry sum of $115, and I figure that, roughly, it will return in the region of 100-200%,
which makes for a very healthy annual dividend.

WebService November 30, 2013 11:46 AM 8----- Race 1 Kentucky Derby Futures $5.00 EX (PWHL) 24 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 Bet $115

My CD, or wager if you prefer, was a $5 EX Wheel with "the field" on top of the 23 named horses in the Derby futures list. I can't see how I can lose.

Remember - the race is five (5) months away.
I make the over/under of the 23 listed horses going in the gate for the Derby at around six -
and I would shade the under.

Anyone out there think I'm crazy?
I say it's an easy Benjamin.
I'll know on the first Saturday in May........ ;)

[tanner12oz]

I have action on the field...was satisfied with 4-5 even though it was 1-1 throughout the pool..so I'm with you