The Sheets and the Bounce

[DeoVolente]

OK, I will agree with those who say that a horse that puts in an incredible performance off a long layoff will be a tired and overused horse and not run as well next time. That is not a "bounce" - that's an overworked animal.

Horses coming back too soon are not "bounces" either - they are
human stupidity and/or greed combined with an overused horse.

I went to one of those sheet seminars and the way they explained a bounce that day was that it's a cyclical pattern in the numbers. Nothing more, nothing less, nothing else.

And I am so unwilling to accept this because it just plain doesn't
work. I have never seen it work. It didn't work the day I went to the seminar, and it hasn't worked since. If it did work then Ragozen wouldn't be needing to sell it to make his money would he? If it did work then sheets players would be winners wouldn't they?

The truth is that Ragozen would be broke if he didn't sell his
damned sheets to stupid people who are going broke using them.

[JackS]

Deo- I've never used the "Sheets" but from what I understand, the people who do, still have to handicap. Ragozin has made mistakes before using his own sheets and handicapping. A few years ago in Vegas, he discounted a winner his sheets had and didn't beleive. This may have cost him, as I think this was some kind of HC tournament.

[karlskorner]

Did you ever wonder why the "sheets" have been around for the past 25 years ? At $25-35.00 a pop thats more than most people intend to spend for the day at the races. Next time your at the track stop someone who just purchased the "sheets" and ask "Hey stupid person (your words) how come you bought the "sheets", his answer will be brief, "because I win with them".

I don't use them because I don't understand them, but I see the same people on a daily basis buying the "sheets", thats $150-180.00 per week, boy are they "stupid".

[JimG]

When I see words like "bounce" and "sheets", I tend to think of fabric softener. Regarding who wins with the "sheets"...I would guess that maybe 2-5% of those that use the sheets regularly win with them. But I would also guess they lose less with them than they would with many other tools due to familiarity.

Just because a guy is willing to shell out $25-$30 for a handicapping tool does not necessarily mean he is a long term winner...just a guy with deeper pockets than the masses in the bowels of the grandstand scraping together $2 for a late dd bet. In all probability, sheet users that are not winners are convinced if they just keep at it they will eventually be a winner. Most will not. But this is no different than the DRF, computer capping, or any other handicapping tool.

Jim

[MV McKee]

I've never been certain whether the "bounce" is up or down.
My thought is that the majority of "bounces" occur after a race where the horse simply encountered the type of race circumstances that allowed him/her to run to maximum potential.
I've always been a bit leary of the theory that a max effort 14 days or more prior (with an interim work or two thrown in) still has lingering effects. If the horse is coming back in a week or less, I'll entertain the notion, but I find that more often than not there is a more realistic explanation to be found.

[JackS]

The bounce may exist but it's probably nothing that could ever be counted on. It would probably be better to pay more attention to the odds board and try to win with a horse that everyone else including the "Pro" predicting a bounce, and hope for a overlay. I can see some value here.

[Tom]

If the horse is the favorite, I play it to bounce.
If it is 5-1 or better, I don't think about bouncing.
It is a handicapping form factor. You will never figure it right every time. But as long as you get it right enough to make money, then that's all that matters.
I find the idea of a bounce explains a lot when I look at a horses "sheet" (HTR version of a sheet). I always look at the graphical performance of the horse when I am picking pacelines, then go to velocity feet per second numbers to seperate them.
The picture of the horse's performances is priceless to me. I am graphically oriented, not number oriented. I like graphs, charts, etc. (Yes-I voted for Perot because he was a picture man)

[keilan]

How about we substitute the words regress or move forward in place of "bounce".

I, like Tom find visuals graphs priceless when examining the past performances, it shows each horse's form cycle and potential based on pace estimates and distance. From that I try to determine whether a horse will excel in today's race or regress. Of course there are several variables that the brain must process very rapidly, with years of practice one can learn to be right far more often than wrong.

Just for the record I keyed Read the Footnotes in a $50 super in his first race back as a 3yo and used him with 3 or 4 other horses in all 4 spots in the super in his next start. I guess I'm just lucky!!

I don't really care what you call it, nor what any of you believe -- but if a player can't estimate which direction a horse is going I'd say you don't have a shot in this game.

Another 2 cents shot to hell

[Lance]

DeoVolente wrote:

"And I am so unwilling to accept this because it just plain doesn't
work."

That could be because the wrong person was interpreting it: you. Knowing the theory isn't sufficient. One must be good at interpreting patterns. If one is not, one should not buy the Sheets. Instead, one might be content with making jealous posts belittling those who are successful with the Sheets.

"I went to one of those sheet seminars and the way they explained a bounce that day was that it's a cyclical pattern in the numbers."

Please go to www.thesheets.com. Click on "Introduction." It's on the left side of the screen. Please read the short article on bouncing.

"It didn't work the day I went to the seminar,"

A sample that would please even the most fastidious statistician.

"and it hasn't worked since."

If I may be so bold, how to you know? Do you monitor the results of Sheets users? Len Friedman of the Sheets enters few tournaments. Here are some of his finishes from the last three years: Fourth, second, first, fourth, third. Money won: about 200,000 dollars. He is as big a believer in bounce theory as anyone in the United States.

[ceejay]

To me it doesn't matter if you call it a bounce or over-use or whatever.

I know that this is not directly on-point to DeoVolente's issue of bouncing off a big layoff fig, but I refer you to pages 42 to 45 of Joe Cardello's Speed to Spare. Using mature horses (10 or more starts) on the dirt not off a layoff of more than 90 days, if a horse puts up a carrer-best Beyer last out, then he/she has a 87% chance of running a lower figure in "today's" race. Moreover, there is a 53% likelihood that the drop will be 10 or more points. The numbers get even worse it the horse improved over 19 Beyer points to make that top: A 62% chance of dropping 10 or more points.

[alysheba88]

Of course horses bounce. People can deny the obvious all they want. Its a fact.

I do think they are sometimes an overused excuse but that does not mean they dont exist.

What is a trainer going to do if his horse appears in good form but will possibly bounce? Not run him? THAT would be stupid. These are flesh and blood animals not machines.

A bounce can be good for the horse

[Turfday]

I'm assuming the word "bounce" was a handy way that Sheets users described a serious regression of form after a big race.

I'm also assuming that this discovery...the "bounce"...was made YEARS AGO shortly after the Sheets came in vogue.

The problem with the "bounce" theory is that it is a general one....e.g. a filly sprinter is more like to bounce than a older male turf horse...etc. There are "parameters" to the bounce.

YEARS AGO..."back in the day"....trainers just weren't as savvy about the "bounce theory." Now they are.

YEARS AGO..."back in the day"...the VETS who tended to the horses....did not have the "MAGIC" at their disposal to prevent or "ward off" the bounce.

Field sizes are generally smaller...at least they are in Southern California. Doesn't that possibly in a small way mean something...less horses to run against?

Finally, in other posts that discussed the bounce theory, the best one of all that I believe in, is that GENERALLY speaking....a horse coming off a BIG race....especially a WIN....is GENERALLY going to run against BETTER HORSES in next start.

My guess is that YEARS AGO..."back in the day"...bouncing was more prevalent. I'm not saying it doesn't happen. I am saying:

(1) More savvy trainers...better care for the horse.

(2) More savvy vets.....using their magic and more modern methods.

(3) Coming off a good race generally means better competition in the next start.

(4) Smaller field sizes (in certain regions)....less competition...less chance of bouncing.

[Skanoochies]

Does anyone have stats on the next race after the supposed bounce? In other words was the exceptinal race the anomaly in the horses past record, and the bounce and subsequent races more in line with his past Beyers and speed ratings.

Just a thought.

Skanoochies.:)

[Lance]

Turfday wrote:

"I'm assuming the word "bounce" was a handy way that Sheets users described a serious regression of form after a big race."

Yes, though it doesn't have to be a serious regression. A semi-serious regression will do. I've also heard your partner, Jeff Siegel, use the term "bounce." I believe this was even before he started doing the Thoro-Graph testimonials. What's left of my memory recalls him predicting that Chinook Pass would bounce in his race against Time to Explode, in 1982, I think. Good call, Jeff.

"I'm also assuming that this discovery...the "bounce"...was made YEARS AGO shortly after the Sheets came in vogue."

Correct.

"The problem with the "bounce" theory is that it is a general one....e.g. a filly sprinter is more like to bounce than a older male turf horse...etc."

I don't see this as a problem. It would be a problem only if we didn't know these things.

"YEARS AGO..."back in the day"....trainers just weren't as savvy about the "bounce theory." Now they are."

Great point. Many, many top trainers use the Sheets today and are acutely aware of bouncing, as are many trainers who don't use the Sheets.

"YEARS AGO..."back in the day"...the VETS who tended to the horses....did not have the "MAGIC" at their disposal to prevent or "ward off" the bounce."

Good point. This has had an effect, as Ragozin points out in his book.

"Field sizes are generally smaller...at least they are in Southern California. Doesn't that possibly in a small way mean something...less horses to run against?"

Sheet handicappers judge bounces based on figures, not wins and losses. Smaller fields would make it more likely that horses would bounce and still win.

"GENERALLY speaking....a horse coming off a BIG race....especially a WIN....is GENERALLY going to run against BETTER HORSES in next start."

Yes, and here it gets even more controversial. Sheet "purists" believe that horses run the figure they are in condition to run--regardless of the level of the competition.

"My guess is that YEARS AGO..."back in the day"...bouncing was more prevalent."

That is Ragozin's view as well. Thanks for the interesting post, Bob.

[Tom]

Two things that will stir up a hornets nest in hoss playing: bias and bounce. This is good. We are playing against each other, so the more confusion there is on these two subjects the better off it is for those who play them correctly.

[JimL]

I think Tom had it right. At 5\2 the horse will bounce. At 5\1 the horse will run a new top today. Keilan, also had it right. If you dont know which direction a horse is going you are in trouble in this game. JimL

[JackS]

It's a coin flip, the quesion is- "is the coin loaded?" Let the odds board have the final say. Correctly predicting a bounce back at 4/5 will have little impact on your bottom line.

[DeoVolente]

You know, the 2 men interpreting it at that seminar I went to worked
for the company. If they aren't interpreting the data right then
Rags got a MAJOR problem....

I've talked to people who use the things. The truth of the matter is
that I've yet to find one person who uses the sheets that has a
higher than average ROI. If you've got one then let him or her prove
it.

Winning handicapping contests is far from the same as beating the
races. The rules on the contests always make it different from day
in and day out handicapping.

[Niko]

I do believe from observation that horses do regress in general after a top effort but it's always a guess as to how much and who. Just as professional athletes and sports teams rarely duplicate a peak performance.
Ernie Dahlman a professional handicapper who I've read about in a couple of interviews uses The Sheets but doesn't pay attention to the bounce theory.
Never heard what he does with a horse with a new top but he's always looking for reasons horses will improve or digress from their last start. Maybe he's already factored reasons for a bounce in his handicapping.