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View Full Version : Mountaineer tonight - Race 7


raybo
10-21-2013, 03:26 PM
Since we don't have a "let's handicap race x" for today, why not trying out Mountaineer Race 7. It's a 6.00f Dirt Clm5000, nw3 since October 21, 2012, 3 YO & UP F&M with a field size of 10, purse $9500.

I'm not creating a poll, just post your likely winner, any analysis you wish to make, and the way you would bet the race. The track is currently dry and fast with a chance of showers this evening. So, weather should not affect the running much, unless there is significant rain before the race.

I don't often play this track, so it will be a challenge, but I do like the cheapies and a decent field size!

Here are the entries:

1 COCONUT HALL
2 SWEET MOONBEAM
3 MYSTERY BABY
4 MEADOW TRAIL
5 QUANTITATIVEEASING
6 REPUTA THE BEAUTAH
7 PERPETUITY
8 SHE'S FIRED UP
9 SET DIAMOND
10 UNEVEN

duncan04
10-21-2013, 03:35 PM
For me it comes down to two horses, the :8: and the :5:

The :8: is my top choice. Second start over MNR strip and romped to a 10 length win at same condition. Should be tough in second start at track with Parker returning to ride. Win bet here

The :5: is tough and coming in off two straight wins. Has 5 wins at distance and also at track.


So :8: to win and a :8: , :5: exacta box

Charli125
10-21-2013, 04:18 PM
I think the :9: wins this one from the front, and I'd key with the :6: , :5: , and :8: .

In her last race she had to duel the whole way while leading in very fast splits. Coming off a good workout. And I like the price.

KidCapper
10-21-2013, 05:19 PM
Mountaineer Race -7 The :5: . I'm going to tab this runner from the Louis V Ruberto, Jr. barn. Trainer hitting at an unbelievable 36% for the meet so far. 6 year old mare has done nothing wrong in her return to the races this year. 2 wins and a 2nd place finish. Winner at 5000n2y last out and this outfit hits at 44% with claiming repeaters. Loveberry retains the mount for the attempt at 3 in a row. My bets here:

$10 WP :5:

$5 Exacta Box :5: :6: :8:

Good Luck!

bugboy
10-21-2013, 05:26 PM
I'll go with the 8 to win. Looks like best late pace, and a very good spd fig.
form also high should come down the lane fast.
after all that .....look out for the 2. Good luck to all the 'cappers.

whodoyoulike
10-21-2013, 06:16 PM
I like the :2: Sweet Moonbeam to win. I see her leading at the half and hopefully runs her race to the finish. I just hope the :8: and :10: don't start a speed duel to the finish.

olddaddy
10-21-2013, 06:23 PM
I dont follow this circuit, I just wonder why there are no claims for these cheapies?

appistappis
10-21-2013, 06:32 PM
most 5k claimers on the east coast can be private purchases in the 800 to 1600 range.

judd
10-21-2013, 06:44 PM
no 9 set diamond

jk3521
10-21-2013, 06:47 PM
So in this race we have the Ruberto factor and the DeShawn Parker factor. Too bad Parker wasn't riding for Ruberto here and we'd have a lock . A play for the"Mad Bomber". :D


I wonder how far the :2: can take them.Also the :10: is back on dirt(3 for 11).

raybo
10-21-2013, 06:50 PM
Well, IMO, it's between 5 and 8 obviously, so I'll play a $1 superfecta thus:

:5: W :2: :8: :10: W :2: :4: :8: :10: W :2: :4: :6: :7: :8: :10: - total bet amount $36 (assuming none of these scratch of course)

lamboguy
10-21-2013, 06:53 PM
SHE'S FIRED UP just falls into this condition again from her win on October 12, 2012. she gonna be mighty tough to beat, even uncle lou will have his problems against this monster and you know he sends them there as ready as can be.

raybo
10-21-2013, 07:10 PM
SHE'S FIRED UP just falls into this condition again from her win on October 12, 2012. she gonna be mighty tough to beat, even uncle lou will have his problems against this monster and you know he sends them there as ready as can be.

Definitely the class of this field. However, class doesn't always win, I see the 5 in the lead by the stretch call, and on 30 days rest she should be able to finish ok. If the pace is honest the 5's versatility to press or lay off the lead, should serve her well here. The jock's got to do his job though! Trainer stats are great! The odds on the 5 should be better than the 8 also.

Speed Figure
10-21-2013, 07:13 PM
Looks like a pretty good race. The question is will the :8: BOUNCE off her last race. It was by far her best race off my numbers by 11.6 points.

shouldacoulda
10-21-2013, 07:16 PM
I like the :5: :8: :2: . The :2: looks good as the early speed but the track has an outside bias. I would look for the :8: & :5: to press turning for home. Don't know if I'll play it though.

Quesmark
10-21-2013, 07:19 PM
:6: -Reputa The Beautah,had a tough trip in last,a race where She's Fired Up got a perfect rail run and drew off,RTB has good spacing,is a consistent winner,has current form,can stalk early and get a jump on the closers...

ALL CIRCUITS GO
10-21-2013, 07:30 PM
#5 Quantitativeasing,,,,,, best of the rest
:cool:

098poi
10-21-2013, 07:31 PM
Win on :5:,:6:

iceknight
10-21-2013, 08:08 PM
The :4: and the :1: seem like the value bets in this field.

Now that I look at it again, :4: looks good stretching out slightly the :8: looks like the classical MNR favorite who will suck money.

WP on 4
W on 1
I had copy pasted 10 by mistake earlier, corrected it to give the TDN shipper a chance at doing some closing fireworks

raybo
10-21-2013, 08:12 PM
The :4: and the :10: seem like the value bets in this field.

Now that I look at it again, :4: looks good. the :8: looks like the classical MNR favorite who will suck money

WP on 4
W on 10

If the 8 beats me, so be it, she is "supposed" to win after all. I'm putting my money on logical horses who offer an acceptable profit on my super, should I hit it. A loss is just a loss, like any other.

Putting the 8 on the top of my ticket lowers my chance of hitting a sizable payout should I win. Low priced favorites at this track lead to low priced vertical exotic payouts, as everyone jumps on the low priced fav and covers the other rows well. So, if everybody jumps on the 8 and the 5 beats him my payout will be more like I expect, and demand. If the 8 wins I just lost to a favorite, no biggie.

iceknight
10-21-2013, 08:30 PM
If the 8 beats me, so be it, she is "supposed" to win after all. I'm putting my money on logical horses who offer an acceptable profit on my super, should I hit it. A loss is just a loss, like any other.

Putting the 8 on the top of my ticket lowers my chance of hitting a sizable payout should I win. Low priced favorites at this track lead to low priced vertical exotic payouts, as everyone jumps on the low priced fav and covers the other rows well. So, if everybody jumps on the 8 and the 5 beats him my payout will be more like I expect, and demand. If the 8 wins I just lost to a favorite, no biggie. But the :5: will be a low priced horse too...

JimG
10-21-2013, 08:37 PM
I'll go with :5::8: with :2::5::6::8: exacta

and :5::8: with :2::5::6::8: with :1::2::5::6::7::8: trifecta

Jim

ArlJim78
10-21-2013, 08:37 PM
I'll be betting on :9: Set Diamond.

whodoyoulike
10-21-2013, 08:40 PM
I have a sincere question, where is Mountaineer race track located? Thanks.

raybo
10-21-2013, 08:45 PM
But the :5: will be a low priced horse too...

The key is that those are win odds, and in superfectas it's the odds "rank" that matters, so as the 2nd ranked odds horse, the 5 on top will offer a much better payout than the 8 on top. And, I really think it's between the 5 and 8 for the win, so of those 2, the 5 offers more value for win, and the super.

ArlJim78
10-21-2013, 08:45 PM
I have a sincere question, where is Mountaineer race track located? Thanks.
W 80deg 39’14, N 40deg 35’01

Chester, WV

raybo
10-21-2013, 08:46 PM
I have a sincere question, where is Mountaineer race track located? Thanks.

Chester, Wv.

OOps, sorry about the redundancy.

whodoyoulike
10-21-2013, 08:52 PM
Thanks for responding. Another question, I'm unfamiliar with this racing circuit, what do race tracks Tdn, Pen and Del stand for and maybe where they are located? Thanks again in advance.

ArlJim78
10-21-2013, 08:57 PM
Thanks for responding. Another question, I'm unfamiliar with this racing circuit, what do race tracks Tdn, Pen and Del stand for and maybe where they are located? Thanks again in advance.
TDN - Thistledowns - Ohio
PEN - Penn National - Pennsylvania
Del = Delaware Park - Delaware

parlay
10-21-2013, 08:59 PM
The first question is can the :8: repeat that effort.
I will bet 2 scenarios,
1. he romps again
2. he doesn't lift a hoof
if he runs into the ticket i lose everything.
The :3: interests me.
New trainer got 2 of his 3 lifetime wins out of him
in his 2nd and 3rd start for him. The 1st was on a off track.
Both wins were on the engine.His next 3 efforts showed
early speed, the last of which was a turn back.
His next race he showed a new dimension, a huge of the
pace effort. This race makes him competitive with everyone
in the race save the :8: of his last.
The trainer wheels him right back in 7 days at a route. He rates
off the early speed, takes a run and flattens. The big fave put away
the speed and won by many, the other positions were filled by runners coming from way out of it.
The spacing of this race, 7 days, was not the way the trainer had
been running him. I think this was a good effort.
So, i believe i have a runner that has changed his style. A style that should
be beneficial to him tonight. A runner that is competitive with the whole
field. A runner that has had proper rest since his last run.
How do i use him?
He should be a very generous price. I will make a win bet on him.
I will play him under the :8: in a larger ex.
I will then combine him with others in exactors that should be large.

appistappis
10-21-2013, 08:59 PM
tdn, thistletown in cleveland oh

del, delaware park in northern delaware.

pn, penn national, nw of philly

olddaddy
10-21-2013, 09:00 PM
:10: Why? Plastic to dirt, rider that seems like he comes in to win. And I need bullets for wednesday.

appistappis
10-21-2013, 09:03 PM
I got the contenders 5/6/8/10.......the mountain is all about finding the bombs who run into the exotics.....if the price is there, the 3 is the one this race.

iceknight
10-21-2013, 09:04 PM
The key is that those are win odds, and in superfectas it's the odds "rank" that matters, so as the 2nd ranked odds horse, the 5 on top will offer a much better payout than the 8 on top. And, I really think it's between the 5 and 8 for the win, so of those 2, the 5 offers more value for win, and the super. I agree with you wholeheartedly on this... unfortunately i don't play supers at mnr because they don't have the evil dime super yet... :lol: were it LRL or TDN, game on!

Anyhow, at this point, I am just going to leave this race as a mental bet and not play any real money

jk3521
10-21-2013, 09:10 PM
The first question is can the :8: repeat that effort.
I will bet 2 scenarios,
1. he romps again
2. he doesn't lift a hoof
if he runs into the ticket i lose everything.
The :3: interests me.
New trainer got 2 of his 3 lifetime wins out of him
in his 2nd and 3rd start for him. The 1st was on a off track.
Both wins were on the engine.His next 3 efforts showed
early speed, the last of which was a turn back.
His next race he showed a new dimension, a huge of the
pace effort. This race makes him competitive with everyone
in the race save the :8: of his last.
The trainer wheels him right back in 7 days at a route. He rates
off the early speed, takes a run and flattens. The big fave put away
the speed and won by many, the other positions were filled by runners coming from way out of it.
The spacing of this race, 7 days, was not the way the trainer had
been running him. I think this was a good effort.
So, i believe i have a runner that has changed his style. A style that should
be beneficial to him tonight. A runner that is competitive with the whole
field. A runner that has had proper rest since his last run.
How do i use him?
He should be a very generous price. I will make a win bet on him.
I will play him under the :8: in a larger ex.
I will then combine him with others in exactors that should be large.
I like your style!! Swing for the fences!! :cool:

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:23 PM
I agree with you wholeheartedly on this... unfortunately i don't play supers at mnr because they don't have the evil dime super yet... :lol: were it LRL or TDN, game on!

Anyhow, at this point, I am just going to leave this race as a mental bet and not play any real money

I use the dimes as savers in big races only. I usually bet $1 supers on larger tickets and $2 in smaller ones.

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:25 PM
I expect the 8 to go off at even money or lower and the 5 around 2/1, maybe a bit lower or higher depending on how low the 8 goes. I think everyone will see that 10 length win last time and get all over the 8.

HuggingTheRail
10-21-2013, 09:25 PM
$5 EXA 8-5
$5 EXA 8-6

$1 TRI 8 - 3 - 2,4,5,6,7
$1 TRI 8 - 2,4,5,6,7 - 3

$20 TOTAL

appistappis
10-21-2013, 09:33 PM
the race is tough, decided on a 8/3 exact.

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:35 PM
Yeah, you have to try to find some value somewhere, or pass. So far the money is going about right, IMO.

Late money should go on the 8, I hope anyway.

Robert Fischer
10-21-2013, 09:37 PM
:5: is so smooth

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:39 PM
Odds on 8 are a bit higher at 1MTP than I thought they would be. Maybe the last click will put it lower.

Robert Fischer
10-21-2013, 09:41 PM
YES

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:41 PM
Cool, 5 2 !

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:43 PM
Great ride by the jock on 5!! Just what he needed to do. Honest pace and 2 led as she should have.

Now what were the show and 4th horses? :ThmbUp:

shouldacoulda
10-21-2013, 09:43 PM
Fin :5: :2: :6: . Almost went as planned. 1 unit to win :5: with :2: :5: / :2: :5: :8: / :2: :5: :8: tri. Should have fanned it out. Oh well. Just picking at them. At least it was an exciting finish.

Robert Fischer
10-21-2013, 09:43 PM
I'll go with :5::8: with :2::5::6::8: exacta

and :5::8: with :2::5::6::8: with :1::2::5::6::7::8: trifecta

Jim

Good Play Jim

Robert Fischer
10-21-2013, 09:44 PM
Mountaineer Race -7 The :5: . I'm going to tab this runner from the Louis V Ruberto, Jr. barn. Trainer hitting at an unbelievable 36% for the meet so far. 6 year old mare has done nothing wrong in her return to the races this year. 2 wins and a 2nd place finish. Winner at 5000n2y last out and this outfit hits at 44% with claiming repeaters. Loveberry retains the mount for the attempt at 3 in a row. My bets here:

$10 WP :5:

$5 Exacta Box :5: :6: :8:

Good Luck!

Kid Capper !

shouldacoulda
10-21-2013, 09:44 PM
Good Play Jim
:ThmbUp:

jk3521
10-21-2013, 09:45 PM
And the Winnah !!! is Jim :cool:

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:46 PM
Well heck, I missed the 6 for show, but the super paid $900 for $1. Very nice!!

Good catch Jim!!

Robert Fischer
10-21-2013, 09:47 PM
098 nice one

All circuits Go , good call


+ anyone else i missed

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:48 PM
Yes, some nice bets in this thread! The 8 never showed did it? Oh well, I gave it a good shot, just not enough coverage on the show line, one more horse there and I had the super.

whodoyoulike
10-21-2013, 09:48 PM
:6: show 5.00
:7: 4th

$1.00 exacta 32.30
$1.00 trifecta 144.90

Stillriledup
10-21-2013, 09:50 PM
Mountaineer Race -7 The :5: . I'm going to tab this runner from the Louis V Ruberto, Jr. barn. Trainer hitting at an unbelievable 36% for the meet so far. 6 year old mare has done nothing wrong in her return to the races this year. 2 wins and a 2nd place finish. Winner at 5000n2y last out and this outfit hits at 44% with claiming repeaters. Loveberry retains the mount for the attempt at 3 in a row. My bets here:

$10 WP :5:

$5 Exacta Box :5: :6: :8:

Good Luck!

Winner, winner chicken dinner!

olddaddy
10-21-2013, 09:50 PM
The fav did nothing. Nice pick JimG.

Speed Figure
10-21-2013, 09:51 PM
So nice to see when my numbers tell me a low price horse is set up for a BOUNCE! to bad we don't have exchange betting! :bang:

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:52 PM
So nice to see when my numbers tell me a low price horse is set up for a BOUNCE! to bad we don't have exchange betting! :bang:

Yeah, that would be nice. I didn't have her bouncing but I did not think she would out last the 5 in the stretch. I guess she just never fired.

Stillriledup
10-21-2013, 09:53 PM
The Fave seemed "dead" on the board...she didnt take a huge show bet :D , she was really lukewarm, the board was really saying she wasnt going to duplicate that last effort. The track seems to be speed favoring, its a tight track out there.

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:53 PM
Enjoyed the banter, and the race. Thanks for the participation!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

JimG
10-21-2013, 09:54 PM
Thanks guys. And congrats to others that had it as well.

Jim

Stillriledup
10-21-2013, 09:54 PM
I'll go with :5::8: with :2::5::6::8: exacta

and :5::8: with :2::5::6::8: with :1::2::5::6::7::8: trifecta

Jim

Jimmy Jim Jimbo, way to go Pal! Hope you crushed it! :ThmbUp:

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:55 PM
The Fave seemed "dead" on the board...she didnt take a huge show bet :D , she was really lukewarm, the board was really saying she wasnt going to duplicate that last effort. The track seems to be speed favoring, its a tight track out there.

Yeah, she didn't take the nose dive in odds that I figured she would. But 7/2 on the 5 was more than acceptable.

parlay
10-21-2013, 09:57 PM
Better than getting nosed out at 50-1

shouldacoulda
10-21-2013, 09:57 PM
That was fun. I wasn't even going to play it.

raybo
10-21-2013, 09:59 PM
These cheap claimers can be a whole lot of fun, I love them and they are my bread and butter.

Speed Figure
10-21-2013, 10:07 PM
These cheap claimers can be a whole lot of fun, I love them and they are my bread and butter.

I agree! my numbers stick out far better at small race tracks and I really like playing them.

098poi
10-21-2013, 10:14 PM
Win on :5:,:6:

I fell asleep and missed it. I wasn't betting but whenever you post a pick you feel like you've got something on it so I would have like to watch it. Hope those who posted and hit won some real money!

iceknight
10-22-2013, 01:29 PM
I fell asleep and missed it. I wasn't betting but whenever you post a pick you feel like you've got something on it so I would have like to watch it. Hope those who posted and hit won some real money! Nice call by JimG, Kid and raybo had it too. but the 4th leg fell out?

raybo
10-22-2013, 02:11 PM
Nice call by JimG, Kid and raybo had it too. but the 4th leg fell out?

If you're talking about me, it was the 3rd leg (show position). The 6 was my next ranked horse, had I put 1 more horse on that line it would have been the 6. That's what happens when you don't cover adequately. :bang: