Keeneland Exacta Payoff R9 (SAT)

[Track Phantom]

14 horse field

#16 Madame Cactus wins at 11-1 (from 10-1 ML) and #14 runs 2nd (at 10-1 from 30-1 ML).

#14, Eden Prairie, has the lead the whole way and odds drop dramatically (I believe from 18-1 to 10-1).

What do you think that exacta should pay? What if I told you #16 over the favorite #4 Silsita paid $110 for $1.

It paid $122 for $1. To me, that is not right.

[wiffleball whizz]

14 horse field

#16 Madame Cactus wins at 11-1 (from 10-1 ML) and #14 runs 2nd (at 10-1 from 30-1 ML).

#14, Eden Prairie, has the lead the whole way and odds drop dramatically (I believe from 18-1 to 10-1).

What do you think that exacta should pay? What if I told you #16 over the favorite #4 Silsita paid $110 for $1.

It paid $122 for $1. To me, that is not right.


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they will we eating lobster tonight

This thread will pick up steam

[Stillriledup]

FOURTEEN horse field. That means, if you box all 14 horses in the exacta for 1 dollar, it costs 182.....so, you hit 2 bombs and you LOSE 60 bucks? You're not even close to getting your money back.

[Track Phantom]

I'm not much of an exacta player so maybe I'm overreading it and that payoff is fine.

However, you would think you would get serious separation in the payoff from the favorite running second and a runner who was 30-1 morning line (and off at double digits) running second.

[JustRalph]

14 horse field

#16 Madame Cactus wins at 11-1 (from 10-1 ML) and #14 runs 2nd (at 10-1 from 30-1 ML).

#14, Eden Prairie, has the lead the whole way and odds drop dramatically (I believe from 18-1 to 10-1).

What do you think that exacta should pay? What if I told you #16 over the favorite #4 Silsita paid $110 for $1.

It paid $122 for $1. To me, that is not right.

the late money on the 14 was a surprise to me....... I dumped some on that horse ........ right before the gate opened........I was pissed when he got beat....didn't have the exacta............ :bang: the place money was ok at 10.00

[moneyandland]

I'm not much of an exacta player so maybe I'm overreading it and that payoff is fine.

However, you would think you would get serious separation in the payoff from the favorite running second and a runner who was 30-1 morning line (and off at double digits) running second.


ML mean nothing... The 14 was extremely live and the 4 was dead in exas, there wasnt much difference 14-12 was paying less than 14-4, the 14 was 4th choice in exa behind #4, No one ever complains about overlays, the late DD was 20% over a parlay

[Track Phantom]

ML mean nothing... The 14 was extremely live and the 4 was dead in exas, there wasnt much difference 14-12 was paying less than 14-4, the 14 was 4th choice in exa behind #4, No one ever complains about overlays, the late DD was 20% over a parlay

You might be right but it is still not very often you get two double digits in a 14 horse field and get $122. Especially when you're talking #16 and #14, post positions the public often fade.

[moneyandland]

You might be right but it is still not very often you get two double digits in a 14 horse field and get $122. Especially when you're talking #16 and #14, post positions the public often fade.

True but for 11-1 and 10-1 $244 for $2 aint too far off

[CincyHorseplayer]

That was fair IMO.My top 4 were 10-16-9-14.I lost everything with the 10 finishing 3rd.I made a mistake late in the betting.Looking at the double digit odds on the 14 and 16 I couldn't decide which to put the smaller win bet on.The 16 had solid sire/damsire rankings for synthetic tracks.

[ronsmac]

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they will we eating lobster tonight

This thread will pick up steam
without a doubt.

[Stillriledup]

True but for 11-1 and 10-1 $244 for $2 aint too far off

All bets are off in a 14 horse field. That's at least 2 more horses than you normally see. Makes the exa go from 132 possible combos in a 12 horse field to 182.

Picking an exacta in a 14 horse field is twice as hard as picking one in a 10 horse field, even though there are only 4 more horses. (90 vs 182).

[Robert Fischer]

they were I think 4th and 6th choices in both the Double Will Pay, and the Win Pool.

That works against the idea of past posting.

This is also Keeneland poly, where chaos has ruled lately and bettors have caught on and are using 5,6,7 horses in a exbx spread hoping something sticks.

Still would have been nice to get $150-200 for the $1 exacta.

[TheEdge07]

They had it

[Track Phantom]

That was fair IMO.My top 4 were 10-16-9-14.I lost everything with the 10 finishing 3rd.I made a mistake late in the betting.Looking at the double digit odds on the 14 and 16 I couldn't decide which to put the smaller win bet on.The 16 had solid sire/damsire rankings for synthetic tracks.

Your top 4. I guess if you had the race snuffed out, then everyone should have. Good 'capping by you.

[TheEdge07]

16 drew in after the scratch

[CincyHorseplayer]

Your top 4. I guess if you had the race snuffed out, then everyone should have. Good 'capping by you.

I don't know if you are taking a shot at me here!But my view of the race got me nothing!Looking at 2 horses,the 4 and 13,had 2 big races in their PP's I thought would take money unwarrantedly.I loved the 10.Beyond that IMO there wasn't much left and with pedigree a big factor at Kee and for horses that don't have many races over a surface,the 16 would have been looked at.Plus like Robert Fischer said,stretching out on tickets at Keeneland makes a lot of sense,to a lot of players.This race was an embodiment of how I do at Keeneland=have the race fairly doped out and cash nothing!HAHA!

[rrpic6]

That was fair IMO.My top 4 were 10-16-9-14.I lost everything with the 10 finishing 3rd.I made a mistake late in the betting.Looking at the double digit odds on the 14 and 16 I couldn't decide which to put the smaller win bet on.The 16 had solid sire/damsire rankings for synthetic tracks.

Ditto (along with 12). At least I had the late DD 16-11.

RR

[CincyHorseplayer]

Ditto (along with 12). At least I had the late DD 16-11.

RR

I looked at the doubles to try to leverage my opinion of this race.Nice what nearly $200 double?I usually do well on this specific race so I just bet it unconnected.I think come next spring I might make the attempt to beat Keeneland again playing 4 x 4 doubles or boxing 4-5 horses in the exacta or playing .10 supers with a KH in the 3 money slots and nearly all-all-all in the other 3 slots.I can't beat the meet here anymore!:D It almost pisses me off to get a narrow winner at 4-1!Keeneland is a great place to hang out and get drunk and have a ball with drunk chicks if you aren't out of their perceived income bracket anyway!I'm a total tourist there!I love the place though.

[Ocala Mike]

Boxing the high numbers in a chaos race; not surprised at this payoff at all.

[speed]

If win X place is supposed to give you a rough guess at a payoff, then this was spot on.

[Stillriledup]

Boxing the high numbers in a chaos race; not surprised at this payoff at all.

Arent all "rubber races" for the most part, chaos races? :D