Let's Handicap 10/18 Belmont Race 9?

[whodoyoulike]

Who do you like?

1 mile on the Turf, cl20k $34k f/m 3up nw3 or 3yo not won on turf since 7/18/13.

I like :6: Pauper's Queen to win. I see her leading at top of stretch. Also like :2: Speedy's Gal uncertain how or if I make a bet.

[whodoyoulike]

BTW, free Bris PP under trainer Gary Contessa.

[jk3521]

;) Looking for the :1: to hit the board. Had it for a monster mutual when she broke her maiden.

[jerry-g]

It's a little early and we don't know if it will get taken off Turf or not. If it
does, then the scenario changes considerably. For on the Turf I like:

:4: Correspondent
:2: Speedy's Gal
:7: Starship Gambler

If it comes off the Turf and the MTO's get on board then I think the whole
race will belong to :

:14: Lotsa Noodles That horse raced last out in the slop and finished 1st
by 11 lengths at 8.5 furlongs.

[whodoyoulike]

Good point. Is it expected to rain?

[letswastemoney]

This is the race of the week for Dan Illman's blog, and I chose :3: Let the Kitten Run (8/1) because she was pace compromised last time while running 6th. She owns the best late pace figure in the race and could surprise everyone with some help up front.

[MJC922]

:2: maybe today, spacing between races is nearly identical to the Apr 4th win
:4: Should be in the hunt early, comes right back in 9 days off an easy trip
:11: Makes a lot of sense in here but the barn isn't firing lately

No strong sentiments after watching replays. Can't see the :12: as 2-1 ML fav in a grass race though. Anyone else?

[Jingle]

I like the 7 (could go wire to wire), 6 and 4 if the race is not taken off the turf. Win bet 7-2 or better and box the 3 in an exacta.

Good Luck.

[Arapola]

I'll try a flier with the :9: . She show's a Z pattern off a bad post last out at this level and Jose Lezcano rides back. She's had plenty of recent activity and
should at least be fit. The "logical" contenders are :2: ,:4: ,:11: .
Maybe some sort of tri-box and supers.

[jerry-g]

:4: Correspondent Scratched
New Picks:

:2: Speedy's Gal
:11: Downtown Hottie
:7: Starship Gambler

[raybo]

Pre-scratches: :11: :7: :2: , assuming it runs on the turf, of course.

[KidCapper]

I'm tabbing the :7: as the one to catch and beat in here. Del shipper for Klesaris drops in class today for a 20% trainer move. Looks to be the controlling speed in here after scratches. Should get a fair price today. Catch if catch can.

$10WP :7:

$5 Exacta Box :7: :11: :6:

Good Luck!

[JustRalph]

:1: :2: :3: :7:

[dirt]

taking a shot with the 8

[Stillriledup]

Bet the chalk, whoever it is, doesnt seem like they are "racing horses" today. Early pick 3, paid 5 bucks for a buck. Seems like an easy game out there today. :bang:

[raybo]

Bet the chalk, whoever it is, doesnt seem like they are "racing horses" today. Early pick 3, paid 5 bucks for a buck. Seems like an easy game out there today. :bang:

Yeah, I got the winner in races 1 and 2 but missed the 3rd, badly!

[johnhannibalsmith]

:7: - Hopefully they just get aggressive and let her run the way she seems to run best because it doesn't seem like anyone else would be inclined to really pressure her if she tries to dictate from the start. Could be headed the wrong way in general, but at a price like the M/L, she seems like the one that they have to get to if they want the win and there's a few reasons to think she could run one of her better races in the one-turn "route".

:6: - Seems like she fits pretty well with this group and at what figures to be a solid price, she seems pretty darned honest regardless of where she runs or who rides her. With that said, she has a pretty good race with this jock in the recent past, so I have another small "plus" to interest me. Don't really think she has much shot to win since I can't see this race turning into a total meltdown where she winds up as the last mare standing - but considering the potential for a good price on her, the fact that she seems to chug along and runs her race regardless of pace, her consistent mediocrity, and that I think she may like this configuration - she seems like the sort of runner I'd use as a secondary key on a few exotic tickets hoping to catch a top effort in a somewhat ordinary race.

[JustRalph]

what the hell were they doing in the 3rd? Nobody wanted the lead, except the :4: was coming off a layoff similar to Rip Van Winkles nap.........

any decent front runner could have wired that field. They all just sat?

[Not4Love]

#11 Downtown Hottie

[Stillriledup]

what the hell were they doing in the 3rd? Nobody wanted the lead, except the :4: was coming off a layoff similar to Rip Van Winkles nap.........

any decent front runner could have wired that field. They all just sat?

These jocks are getting into their sleepy "winter form" where the gate opens and nobody adjusts.....it should be any day now where Jocelyn Laredo comes back and starts wiring the field at 50-1 at the Big A because nobody "raced horses".

I didnt love the winners of the first 2 races, thought they could get beat if someone went after them, but the jocks rode like they were riding against all time great horses. Hopefully the 4th and 5th i can make some "hay".

[Beachbabe]

:2: win

:2: over the :1: & :3: in the exacta

[Robert Goren]

The :11: is easily the best horse in the race. It is just matter of getting a fair price. My M/L is 5/2(-) meaning I expect the mare to be 5/2 or less. If goes at 3 /1 or higher I will bet her. Anything less and I pass. The fact that is at the end of her 6 yo campaign is bad sign. The outside post means is should be clear going into the stretch. She has about a 35% chance of winning. Average trainer at best. Good Jockey. Dropping NY breed against open but only her and the :2: have won more than 2 races. The :2: is fair amount cheaper and slower. This is the kind of race where something strange could happen but I can't find it. If it weren't for this thread, I would have dumped the race.

[Bennie]

Just got home and wanted to throw my picks up again. Not going to get any big price from what I see but going :11: with :2: :7: exacta box and :11: p/s.
The 4 was the other horse in this race before the scratch and was going to throw the 10 in the exacta for a price but he scratched also.
Not going crazy today as tomorrow looks to be a big day for plays with the card at Laurel. Just trying to make a little extra coin for the Breeders Cup.

[Stillriledup]

Throw the 8 underneath in your tri's and supers, i think she's sneaky and can run a bit, she's better than her PPs look.

[PhantomOnTour]

ex
:2: :3: w :1: :2: :3: :7: :11:
win
:2:

[JustRalph]

I just noticed this :11: is dropping big time....... oh well.....let's beat the fav :jump:

[raybo]

finish: 7 5 2, got 2 of the 3 ITM horses.

It appears nobody had the 5 listed anywhere. Messed up a lot of exactas, tris, and supers I suppose.

[JustRalph]

:1: :2: :3: :7:

3 out of 4 ........hated the :5: ...where the hell did he come from?

[raybo]

what the hell were they doing in the 3rd? Nobody wanted the lead, except the :4: was coming off a layoff similar to Rip Van Winkles nap.........

any decent front runner could have wired that field. They all just sat?

Yeah, that race was weird, I had 6 8 3 and it finished 1 1A 7 3! Not even close.

[raybo]

3 out of 4 ........hated the :5: ...where the hell did he come from?

Yeah, the 5 showed up nowhere in my program. 5th was the best it ranked in any of my methods, and most had him last or almost last.

[Robert Goren]

A well bet :7: hangs on the win. I suppose the fact that she was going off at 3/1 was a tell. I was thinking she should have been 9/2 or 5/1. Del shippers usually don't get bet in NY. Yeah, I know it was only for one race and she was claimed for 30K and the only real early speed, but still . A NY based horse should win at Del. I will add another note to my Steve Klesaris file. He has gotten a lot sharper this year.
The :11: had no excuse. Good thing it went low enough to keep me from betting it. 6 year olds at the end the year have been proven once again to be bad bet. Maybe some day I will actually get that through my thick skull instead of just considering it a negative.

[JustRalph]

Did anybody claim the :11: ?

[KidCapper]

I'm tabbing the :7: as the one to catch and beat in here. Del shipper for Klesaris drops in class today for a 20% trainer move. Looks to be the controlling speed in here after scratches. Should get a fair price today. Catch if catch can.

$10WP :7:

$5 Exacta Box :7: :11: :6:

Good Luck!


Race went the way I had imagined...with the exception of my closers not closing.. :bang: Bet the winner at least...

[raybo]

Did anybody claim the :11: ?

A 6 1/2 YO horse who has only won 1 race in it's last 10, I would be surprised if anybody claimed it.

[Robert Goren]

Yeah, the 5 showed up nowhere in my program. 5th was the best it ranked in any of my methods, and most had him last or almost last. The :5: was the something strange that I knew was in the race some place that I couldn't find as noted in my pre race post. A few more feet and she wins. So it goes.

[Robert Goren]

Did anybody claim the :11: ? I wouldn't think so. She'd have to win next out, because there is nothing going on at AQU during the winter that she would like. At her age, she may have seen her last winnable race at a NYRA track.

[Robert Goren]

This race did stir my loins as to getting me back to handicapping full cards. I am slowly settling a few of health issues and hope to back by the AQU inner or the start of the year. Now if nothing new pops up. I am looking forward to working with Trakus numbers.

[whodoyoulike]

#7 Starship Gambler (3.00) 8.00 5.10 3.80
#5 Double Berg (37.00) 27.60 15.20
#2 Speedy's Gal (4.10) 4.10
#1 Missysmoonlitmagic


$2.00 exacta (7 - 5) $257.00
$2.00 trifecta (7-5-2) $1,246.00)

Per chart:

STARSHIP GAMBLER spurted away just off the inside on the pace, got roused nearing the quarter pole and cut the corner into the stretch, remained clear to the furlong grounds, dug in under a drive leg weary through the final sixteenth and held on to prevail under threat in the final strides. DOUBLE BERG just off the inside towards the rear, had to briefly steady in behind the tiring TANTALIZA three furlongs out as that one backed up inside, shifted to the three path commencing a drive nearing the five-sixteenths, spun four to five wide into upper stretch, rallied with good kick to threaten in the late stages and missed. SPEEDY'S GAL tracked the pace inside unhurried until the five-sixteenths, angled three wide for home, offered up a mild kick for the show honors. MISSYSMOONLITMAGIC tracked the pace from just off the inside in closest pursuit, came under a drive at the five-sixteenths, offered up a mild bid through the stretch before flattening out late on.

[Stillriledup]

Did anybody claim the :11: ?

No Claims.

That 11 horse had hidden run with the kid riding, Rosario shows up and the horse can't run....AND, is NOT claimed.

I have to say, and i know we've discussed this here, i would have been alarmed seeing 0 claims in on that horse, "they" knew she was no good, nobody bit.

She was kind of dead on the board too, hovering at 2-1 with 1 MTP, she could have been lower in price, this wasnt a strong race.

[jerry-g]

I don't know why this is true but I can say with 99-100% accuracy that
whenever my top pick horse scratches such as the 4 did today in the 9th,
I will loose the race if I bet my second pick. It makes no difference the
reason for the scratch. So from now on, I will be hitting the stop button
and go take a nap. At least the money will stay unscathed in my own
POCKET and not sliding into some others. So I will be making an entry into
my virtual notebook: STOP LOSS on Top Pick scratches.

[jk3521]

trainer of the :5: Joe Orseno is a shrewdie, keep an eye on his horses at long odds. One of the few trainers left from the old days who know how to get a price on their horses. ;) The trainer of Red Bullet, winner of 125th Preakness.

[JustRalph]

I don't know why this is true but I can say with 99-100% accuracy that
whenever my top pick horse scratches such as the 4 did today in the 9th,
I will loose the race if I bet my second pick. It makes no difference the
reason for the scratch. So from now on, I will be hitting the stop button
and go take a nap. At least the money will stay unscathed in my own
POCKET and not sliding into some others. So I will be making an entry into
my virtual notebook: STOP LOSS on Top Pick scratches.

Are you making adjustments after the scratch or just sticking with your 2nd pick, regardless? I have learned by using software how much a race can change by just scratching one horse. You basically have to start over. Especially if your scratched horse was a pace factor.

I have several data models that are based on pace and such. Morning line too. One horse scratching can change a race big time.

[jerry-g]

Are you making adjustments after the scratch or just sticking with your 2nd pick, regardless? I have learned by using software how much a race can change by just scratching one horse. You basically have to start over. Especially if your scratched horse was a pace factor.

I have several data models that are based on pace and such. Morning line too. One horse scratching can change a race big time.

Thanks JR. I don't think today's race is a good example to use but I will
definitely check out your suggestion. I will withhold my bets till I can prove
by starting all over again helps.

[raybo]

Are you making adjustments after the scratch or just sticking with your 2nd pick, regardless? I have learned by using software how much a race can change by just scratching one horse. You basically have to start over. Especially if your scratched horse was a pace factor.

I have several data models that are based on pace and such. Morning line too. One horse scratching can change a race big time.

Quite correct, unless you aren't using pace at all. :ThmbUp: