Let's handicap 10/17 Santa Anita Race 7

[whodoyoulike]

I enjoyed the 10/16 Keeneland Race 8 thread. How about Santa Anita 10/17 Race 7?

I like Fantastic Mizz to win. Also, Noise of the Crowd but uncertain how or if I'll play it.

[whodoyoulike]

BTW, free Bris PP available under Doug O'Neil.

[Some_One]

tough to go against the fav, control speed, positive connections, good form.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think :2: Possible (20/1) is a bad play. Takes a drop from optional 40k claiming level to just a normal 40k claiming race.

[JustRalph]

I think the :9: is a need the lead type. he won't have the lead, at least not comfortably like he wants it. Yet, I don't trust some of these jocks to understand this point. They may let him have a 2L lead and if so, his chances go way up.

At the ML price I guess I would play the O'Neill horse :7:

I don't normally play 7 yr old horses anywhere.......but if I had to play, :7: for me against the fav along with the :4: who I hope would be dueling with the :9: for the lead.

I hate this friggin course..........

[jerry-g]

I like

:9: Noise of the Crowd to win
:8: Golden Production to place
:3: Brilliant Melody to show

[MJC922]

I'll stab with the :7:, it's reaching I know, but she gets back on turf again, four back the turf stake might be considered a throw out as she was hung completely out to dry, two of her turf sprints early in the year I had rated faster than par for this level.

:9: excellent number off the claim, comes right back on short rest and has to deal with putting away the inside speed of the :3: this time around.

:8: was off the layoff last time, trainer has a good record, horse has the class on my numbers but I have to question the turf, the last race gets nothing here, and also how much that race conditioned her -- prior to that, never off the board.

[duncan04]

:9: to win. Took this horse in the Santa Anita contest on the Delmar website

[Bennie]

Don't like this race for wagering purposes and don't like to handicap a race I didn't plan on playing but since I looked I will post my play and make a small wager on that play.
I will take a small exacta box :3: :9: and play the :3: p/s.

[raybo]

Here's my "opinion" for this race, although I'm not crazy about playing it. The likely winner is probably going to be low priced, so win betting is probably out, and the possible scenarios for the vertical exotics are many, and likely not a good "risk versus reward" situation. I would have to cover the race too heavily on the place line, requiring even more coverage on the show and 4th lines, in the superfecta.

My thoughts on the principals, at least the ones I consider the principals:

I don't see anyone challenging the :9: early, and if they do she will let them go and lay close. Likely pace horses at the 2nd call: :9: :6: :2: :4: . The :9: just has too many things going for her against these. She is NOT a "need to lead" horse, rather she is an E/P horse and can lead, or press, equally well. There is no "need to lead" horse in this race, so the :9: could indeed get the lead and run her own race, assuming she gets a good start anyway. At worst she lays close behind horses that will not finish as well.

Although the :6: is the class horse in this field, she is not really a sprint horse and will be at a disadvantage because of that, barring a pace meltdown, which I don't see happening in this race. :2: is no threat to win, having bottomed out last time and coming off a 68 day layoff, I'll give her a race before considering her for betting.

:9: is in top form ("1="), and I don't believe she ran a hard race last time out.

:7: is improving in form ("2+"), having run a dirt race last time, evenly, without stressing herself much, and now is back on the turf. In her last race, on dirt, she was up against a horrific early pace, which compromised her finish.

:3: , my 2nd ranked class horse, ran at or close to her best last time ("1="), in a tough race, so she may not repeat that form, but she must be considered a contender in case she does.

:10: also improved in her last race ("2+"), on the dirt, showing improvement late gaining on the winner in the stretch, now she is back on the turf and should be primed to do her best.

All the horses not mentioned above, are "non-win contenders", in my opinion.

So, I see the finish position being something like: :9: :7: :3: :10: .

The race is probably not a good betting race, as the likely winner, the :9: , will probably be low priced, but you could pick up some bucks in the vertical exotics, I suppose, with her on the top, or keyed.

Good luck, and I hope someone picks an unlikely winner at high odds! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Not4Love]

#4 FANTASTIC MIZZ

[Aner]

I like #3 Brilliant Melody to win. Also plan to box 3 with 6,9,10 in the exactas.

[letswastemoney]

Now that I've seen how wagering is going, :7: There is No Limit is an overlay at currently 9/1 (will probably come down).

Practically all of her races have come against stakes horses, even the ones that weren't stakes in name.

[JustRalph]

don't like the way the :7: is walking in the paddock.......looks uncomfortable to me..........

[Robert Fischer]

I am clueless with this race.
Not only am I unfamiliar with 6.5 downhill, this race looks wide open.

:9: feels like a default favorite.

:3: is a solid contender.

:4::7::8: have things to like.


$1 exactas
39 with 478
478 with 39
= $12

[letswastemoney]

don't like the way the :7: is walking in the paddock.......looks uncomfortable to me..........
I admit, I'm not much of a visual handicapper. Maybe that's why she is dead on the board.

[JustRalph]

5 bucks wp on the :2:

for the fun of it

[Robert Fischer]

I like

:9: Noise of the Crowd to win
:8: Golden Production to place
:3: Brilliant Melody to show

:ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

and the :9: fails to be on the lead.........and fades like a dog.........

[JustRalph]

I admit, I'm not much of a visual handicapper. Maybe that's why she is dead on the board.

Looked terrible walking in the paddock. Very very sore. I think it showed on the track too

[Robert Fischer]

8 had a fairly big race going 1M on the dirt @ santa anita, right after she broke her maiden.

Then she was off a year and only raced once. At least you could say that maybe she wasn't fully cranked yet for the comeback 5fturf, and had worked fairly steadily since.

[Bennie]

I see Robert and Jerry picked up a little change with the exacta paying $50 and change for $1. Wasn't crazy about the race but made a few bucks with the :3: horse p/s bet.
Maybe I should only play the races picked here.

[MJC922]

I'll stab with the :7:, it's reaching I know, but she gets back on turf again, four back the turf stake might be considered a throw out as she was hung completely out to dry, two of her turf sprints early in the year I had rated faster than par for this level.

:9: excellent number off the claim, comes right back on short rest and has to deal with putting away the inside speed of the :3: this time around.

:8: was off the layoff last time, trainer has a good record, horse has the class on my numbers but I have to question the turf, the last race gets nothing here, and also how much that race conditioned her -- prior to that, never off the board.

I underestimate horses like the 8 all the time, ranked on top for class but it requires suspending judgment and trusting a top trainer completely both on the questions of surface and current form -- there was scant evidence for either IMO. Ellis is just tremendously sharp, 35% in the past 30 days and 50% in the past two weeks, this one only adds to it and I'm tearing up more tickets.

[whodoyoulike]

#8 Golden Production (7.60) 17.20 7.80 4.60
#3 Brilliant Melody (5.20) 6.00 3.80
#4 Fantastic Mizz (5.20) 3.60
#6 Plazade Indias (7.80)

$1.00 exacta (8 - 3) 51.80
$1.00 trifecta (8-3-4) 261.80

Per chart:

GOLDEN PRODUCTION stalked while outside foe then three wide, advanced then challenged three deep, battled outside rival past mid-stretch then reached the front and edged away. BRILLIANT MELODY was sent up inside to establish command, dictated the pace from the inside down the hill, dug in when challenged in the drive but could not match the winner late. FANTASTIC MIZZ hugged the rail while chasing the pace down the hill, lacked room along the fence in upper stretch, came out slightly and held the show. PLAZA DE INDIAS (CHI) settled off the rail, raced three wide to the top of the stretch, came out further and went willingly to the wire.

[raybo]

I see Robert and Jerry picked up a little change with the exacta paying $50 and change for $1. Wasn't crazy about the race but made a few bucks with the :3: horse p/s bet.
Maybe I should only play the races picked here.

That's 2 races in a row that the 8 eluded me. :lol: