KEENELAND Wednesday

[The Spaniard]

R1: debutante :6: FANCY FLYER improves everyday in the morning

51.0
50.1
49.0
48.3
47.3

good debut trainer (19%) and bet to 5/1.

NP

[The Spaniard]

R2: tight puzzle. :3: CHALICE arrives fit here after a good comeback race in Kentucky Downs (lost in photo) and last winter high Beyers on Turway Park (87 > 88 > 91) could mean he's better on synthetics than turf.

3rd

[The Spaniard]

R3: the entry :1: and :1a: both have won in restricted $25.000 and look properly placed for open 3 year old $20.000 claiming. Both experienced tapeta runners and with tactical speed for this short home stretch distance. Potential improver :7: TRICOLETTE for the exacta.

NP NP NP

[Crassius]

Salute Jefe,

Even money may be good enough for the entry... look to :7: Tricolette should entries odds be too low, which is almost assured.

[Robert Fischer]

R3: the entry :1: and :1a: both have won in restricted $25.000 and look properly placed for open 3 year old $20.000 claiming. Both experienced tapeta runners and with tactical speed for this short home stretch distance. Potential improver :7: TRICOLETTE for the exacta.



I like these numbers. I think the 8 is a toss.

decent value on the 17 exacta bx

[The Spaniard]

the result pretty absurd with :3: NO FREE RIDE stuck 6 runs in restricted 7500, and now beating easily the entry, winners at the restricted 25.000... The winner a maiden after 12 runs (won by DQ)...

[The Spaniard]

in 10 minutes (2.40 NY time) the first Candy Ride I see in Europe makes her debut in Kempton GB (polytrack)

[The Spaniard]

R4: I'm taking a shot with :5: CONTEMPT OF COURT, bred top and bottom for routes, seemingly improving and with an interesting turn of foot.

the Candy Ride in Kempton nailed at the wire (2nd) at 8-1 by a 25-1 whale , I'm so cold...


NP

[Robert Fischer]

R5: I'm taking a shot with :5: CONTEMPT OF COURT, bred top and bottom for routes, seemingly improving and with an interesting turn of foot.

He looked like a beast in the post parade. Last out got a good trip, but comes in with good form.
:5::2::4:

[Crassius]

WPS :2: Liberty Wing Two Min to post at 7/2 good enough odds for me

[Robert Fischer]

He looked like a beast in the post parade. Last out got a good trip, but comes in with good form.
:5::2::4:

:5::2::4::8:

edit - these races are falling apart late. :2: made a big move, and :8: was very live for that price, but the race fell apart.

[Crassius]

WPS :2: Liberty Wing Two Min to post at 7/2 good enough odds for me


Jock changes lane into stretch and tires this horse too early... finish 4th Out of the money

[Crassius]

Can a horse win from the 12 post.... that is the question

[The Spaniard]

here is 78 degrees but I am cold...

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=787381&meetingid=62861&date=2013-10-16&ref=mainracenavigation&refsite=&nav=racecards

[The Spaniard]

Can a horse win from the 12 post.... that is the question

it's got to be a superior horse with a good ride, and he looks superior on paper, but with the short run in the home stretch you've got to get in a workable position at the end of the turn... with a decent draw this horse would be even money... I like :5: PARTY STARTER bred for routing and poly, but trainer just 8% sprint to route.... this is a race to pass...

[La billos]

Was gonna play a P5 until I saw it was 12 across so just going with a p3 starting in race 5:
2,6,9,12
6,8,9
2,6,8,10
For 48

[Robert Fischer]

give me the MSW horses.

:2: :4: :5: :7: :12: Ex Bx

[Robert Fischer]

it's got to be a superior horse with a good ride, and he looks superior on paper, but with the short run in the home stretch you've got to get in a workable position at the end of the turn... with a decent draw this horse would be even money... I like :5: PARTY STARTER bred for routing and poly, but trainer just 8% sprint to route.... this is a race to pass...

Agreed.
From starting gate to first turn, there is enough time to get to the front if you were an E horse, but 12 will likely get a wide trip here.

[Crassius]

it's got to be a superior horse with a good ride, and he looks superior on paper, but with the short run in the home stretch you've got to get in a workable position at the end of the turn... with a decent draw this horse would be even money... I like :5: PARTY STARTER bred for routing and poly, but trainer just 8% sprint to route.... this is a race to pass...


Prolly good advice... I bet the 12 WPS @ 5/2

[Crassius]

Prolly good advice... I bet the 12 WPS @ 5/2

Odds cut after the horses are away....

you just gotta love betting on one thing only to find out you bet on something different.....

Returns 0.00 3.60 3.20

for a WPS profit of .80

after odds cut to 2/1 and ends up the favorite after the gates are already open.

[Robert Fischer]

Keeneland has some days like this where they have some head-scratchers.

Today would have been a good day to try some .50 trifectas , and .10 supers with wide spreads.

[The Spaniard]

Odds cut after the horses are away....

you just gotta love betting on one thing only to find out you bet on something different.....

Returns 0.00 3.60 3.20

for a WPS profit of .80

after odds cut to 2/1 and ends up the favorite after the gates are already open.

Many times I make my bet 20 seconds before the gates open, is the late money betting in internet that change the odds when the horses are already running. Or you shut off betting 1 or 2 minutes before post time or this thing will happen. They don't shut because that would affect the total handle seriously.

[The Spaniard]

R6: :8: CARSON CROWN was crying for the drop, solid favorite. :6: TURNCOAT, has speed (58.4 B) and nice breeding for poly (In Excess x More Than ready). Could rise in class and make the exacta.

3rd and 1st ($41.40)

I had 5€ exacta box (at 67-1)...... :mad: :mad: :mad: :( :( :( :

[La billos]

Lets try a .60 cent P4 in Race 6
:6: :7: :8: :9:
:2: :6: :8: :10:
:5: :6:
:2: :3: :9: :12:

[Crassius]

:4: Has a shot in here to beat the favorite, WPS

[Robert Fischer]

paper bet

.10 superfectas

All except 2,12

with a double key of :10: :8:

cost = $403.20

example
10,8
all except 12,2
all except 12,2
all except 12,2

with 10,8 in each position.

[Crassius]

:4: Has a shot in here to beat the favorite, WPS


Tough choice over the :10: , but onlly bet one horse per race

[La billos]

Lets try a .60 cent P4 in Race 6
:6: :7: :8: :9:
:2: :6: :8: :10:
:5: :6:
:2: :3: :9: :12:

Yay alive, should boxed ex and tris i guess. Geez $855 for a 69 ex

[Crassius]

:4: Has a shot in here to beat the favorite, WPS

I should stick to turf races ;(

[Robert Fischer]

paper bet

.10 superfectas

All except 2,12

with a double key of :10: :8:

cost = $403.20

example
10,8
all except 12,2
all except 12,2
all except 12,2

with 10,8 in each position.


cost = $403.20 return = $1954.02

[Robert Fischer]

R6: :8: CARSON CROWN was crying for the drop, solid favorite. :6: TURNCOAT, has speed (58.4 B) and nice breeding for poly (In Excess x More Than ready). Could rise in class and make the exacta.

3rd and 1st ($41.40)

I had 5€ exacta box (at 67-1)...... :mad: :mad: :mad: :( :( :( :

Great call with the :8: :6:

[The Spaniard]

R7: :2: CHASE THE MAN has become a polytrack beast since moved to this surface. They will let him lead at a confortable pace, he's by 10f handicapper Congrats out of a grade 3 stakes placed router, can wire the field. For me 10f is more like 1m 1/8 than 2 miles, don't like the marathonians from Presque. :5: FLATTERMIJIN in top form with this trainer, for the exacta.

[Robert Fischer]

:6: Curmudgeon

edit - :D one of those chaos days ... wow 4190 for a dime super

[The Spaniard]

R8: :2: OCEAN BERTIE and :12: HOLD OUR DESTINY up in front over the soft ground

win & win

[La billos]

I'm sure the :6: will just win but going a 10 buck DD :5: with :2: :3: :9: :12:

[The Spaniard]

I'm sure the :6: will just win but going a 10 buck DD :5: with :2: :3: :9: :12:


don't understand

[La billos]

don't understand

Was looking for value I guess

[The Spaniard]

R9: I like the cut back from the mile for this 7f. :3: NEVERRGUWITHRICHIE is 6 for 12 on synthetics, she's not a dirt mare but has won over it in this cycle. Her last 70 Beyer means she can be competitive here over her preferred surface. Nice longshot. :5: EMY WHO for the exacta.

after all these whales now chalk-chalk...