Breeder's Crown Thread

[cmp92]

Eliminations this weekend start tonight and continue tomorrow. Finals next weekend. I'm likely going to make the trip down from Buffalo. I'm sure it'll be crowded, are tickets required for the track, or are they just necessary for certain areas and promotions?

[cmp92]

The win pool for the first elimination was only around $5,000. As they took the picture in the winner circle you could see only a handful of people in the background. I know this isn't the real deal just yet but come on :sleeping: :ThmbDown:

[pandy]

Cooler Schooner went huge again here. I can't figure this filly out. She is a twenty claimer at every track except Pocono, where she is awesome.

[Just a Fan]

It is kind of odd that you could theoretically have the exact same horses and drivers competing at Mohawk instead of PcD, and the handle somehow would be 400% higher.

You only need tickets for VIP tents and stuff like that. No need for that unless maybe if you are bringing a big group, or if you really want a place to hang out and crash and have some beers all night long. If you're all about watching and wagering on the races, you will be perfectly fine with general admission. I was there the last time it was at PcD. It was crowded outside early, but when the sun went down the temperature dropped like a rock, and it became crowded inside.

I know you're really just driving down from Buffalo to see Thurman Thomas... The Breeders Crown in northeast PA and Thurman Thomas... they just go together like peanut butter and spaghetti.

[cmp92]

The Captain prevails again. Tetrick gets stuffed in the pocket by Sears and Vegas, pulls the pocket down the backstretch.

[cmp92]

Bee A Magician keeps her winning streak alive, draws post four in the final.

[Overcall]

http://www.hambletonian.org/resources/BCProofs.pdf is the pp's for races 3 thru 7 BC races. The rest may be posted tomorrow.

[mrroyboy]

Very good
Thanks for posting.

[Zapper]

You got to think Coleman gave Sears to go ahead to race VV on the gate and to not give up the lead into turn number 1.VV was all out in the lane as Sears popped the plugs on the far turn and gave the horse multiple cracks in the lane. If there had been 3 elims the horse as good as he is would have missed the final.
I have to say that right now Lucan Hanover with his limited action would probably give Coleman her best shot at upsetting Captain.This has been a long year for the VV horse and it might start to show real soon.

[cmp92]

You got to think Coleman gave Sears to go ahead to race VV on the gate and to not give up the lead into turn number 1.VV was all out in the lane as Sears popped the plugs on the far turn and gave the horse multiple cracks in the lane. If there had been 3 elims the horse as good as he is would have missed the final.
I have to say that right now Lucan Hanover with his limited action would probably give Coleman her best shot at upsetting Captain.This has been a long year for the VV horse and it might start to show real soon.
Well Vegas has failed to beat the Captain this season and he's been trying to do it from first over. So, they probably figured with the rail that they can try and cut the mile and see how that goes. I would agree that Lucan Hanover might be the more dangerous of the Coleman horses entered.

[cmp92]

According to the USTA's website, the entries have Race 14 post time at approximately 8:00. Post time for the first is 5:00. It looks like there is about 17 or 18 minutes between races. I'll be in attendance, I'm just curious how accurate this is. I was expecting there to be longer gaps in between races. Can anyone confirm or deny this based on past experiences?

[cmp92]

A pair of scratches announced for Saturday. Royal Assets is scratched for the 3 yr old filly trot. Gallie Bythe Beach is scratched from the 2 yr old filly pace. The AE1 in both races moves into post nine, while the rest of the field shifts in one position.

http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/article.aspx?articleid=56241&zoneid=63

[Overcall]

cmp92 wrote "According to the USTA's website, the entries have Race 14 post time at approximately 8:00. Post time for the first is 5:00. It looks like there is about 17 or 18 minutes between races. I'll be in attendance, I'm just curious how accurate this is. I was expecting there to be longer gaps in between races. Can anyone confirm or deny this based on past experiences?"


The races will run close to midnite. That why they're rolling the time back a hour and a half. In addition there's probably US and CA. television coming into play primetime ~8pm. Also notice the USTA only listed 10 of the 14 races. PCD is having a media event tomorrow (Wed) which explains why the rest of the pp's were not on the Hambo Soc. website. And we may not see TM's PP's until Thursday. (BC day usually come out on Wednesday)

[Zapper]

Post # :1: Captaintreacherous
Post # :2: Beach Memories
Post # :3: Lucan Hanover
Post # :4: Apprentice Hanover
Post # :5: Vegas Vacation
Post # :6: Captive Audience
Post # :7: Sunfire Blue Chip
Post # :8: Sunshine Beach
Post # :9: Urbanite Hanover

[cmp92]

Post # :1: Captaintreacherous
Post # :2: Beach Memories
Post # :3: Lucan Hanover
Post # :4: Apprentice Hanover
Post # :5: Vegas Vacation
Post # :6: Captive Audience
Post # :7: Sunfire Blue Chip
Post # :8: Sunshine Beach
Post # :9: Urbanite Hanover
Drawing the rail is pretty big for the Captain. The connections have to be happy with this.

[pandy]

Post 1 is winning at 13.7% on the year, with posts 4 and 5 over 15%. With his style I would think 3, 4, or 5 would be the best posts. From the rail he will have to commit early and if someone tries to get by him Tetrick will have to decide whether to play hard ball or risk getting boxed or shuffled if he yields and can't retake.

[Zapper]

I think they have played this race over in their minds 50 times since draw day and the rail will be no issue.I think people put more focus on what might beat him as in post rather than who could possibly beat him..

Captain is the horse everyone wants to knock off the podium and if I was to pick the hot horse now it would have to be one who is relatively fresh (LUCAN HANOVER).
Ask Dave Miller what he thinks.:cool::cool:

[pandy]

After last week's race, I thought Captain Treacherous was a lock. I'm not crazy about the rail and he did lose the Breeders Crown last year, but I'll probably pick him. I have to look over the pps and let the "little grey cells" do their work before making a final decision. The fact that he drew the rail could mean a vicious pace.

[LottaKash]

The fact that he drew the rail could mean a vicious pace.

Pehaps not Bob... I mean just because he has the rail, TT doesn't necessarily have to leave for the lead, but only required get a good seat....This may play even more important if an off track results...And, TT is very astute these days at figuring what trip it might take to winl on a nite that may prove running to the top early is not the best plan to take...

What puzzles me sometimes tho, is, why don't drivers pick the most statistically advantaged posts when they have the choice to do so ?...At Pokie #4 and then #5 posts have the advantage there....

The only thing that I can think of is that, being on the rail allows a good view of who is leaving or not....That is all I can think of...

If there "is" an off track it may alter some of the outcomes of some of the races....But imo, it takes a lot to change things at that track...

Best of Luck to all who will give it a go on Sat....:jump:

[cmp92]

The Captain's sheer will to win can't be discarded when assessing trips. It seems like he gets it done no matter what. Either way, I'm excited to see the BC live.

[pandy]

They didn't get to pick the post. It was a two part draw with 5 horses drawing from posts 1 through 5, so they did not pick the one.

[LottaKash]

They didn't get to pick the post. It was a two part draw with 5 horses drawing from posts 1 through 5, so they did not pick the one.

That' right Pandy,as I recall now....I like that way better anyway... A little more luck involved, at least....And from what I recall, you are not a fan of post-picking either....The more I think about this, the more I agree with you on this issue....Luck of the draw should rule....

[cmp92]

Gingras comments on all of his Breeders Crown drives:

http://www.drf.com/news/breeders-crown-gingras-driving-handful-favorites-finals

[mrroyboy]

Is it the drivers that pick the post when they can? I thought the trainers did that?

[pandy]

Good article by Derick Giwner with his odds line:


http://www.drf.com/blogs/breeders-crown-true-line

[cmp92]

Good article by Derick Giwner with his odds line:


http://www.drf.com/blogs/breeders-crown-true-line
I really like his remarks on the Captain. The horse has beaten most of these horses on several occasions. He's had difficult trips, trips on the front end, off the pace rallies, and has overcome difficult posts. I'm not really convinced either that there's a horse out there that can beat him unless they have a ton of luck.

On that note, I read that Myron Bell had mentioned the possibility of racing him in the TVG FFA finals? The article I read mentioned that the BC Champ gets an invite to the FFA. Is this accurate? I'll try to find the article against and share it.

[pandy]

Here are my picks and line:


http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/BC13.aspx?articleid=56287&zoneid=28

[Just a Fan]

On that note, I read that Myron Bell had mentioned the possibility of racing him in the TVG FFA finals? The article I read mentioned that the BC Champ gets an invite to the FFA. Is this accurate? I'll try to find the article against and share it.


I think if he wins, they should accept the invite. If they planned to retire him at the end of his 3 year old year, I could understand not wanting to send him up against the Aged pacers to end his career. But with the new rules that discourage retiring horses at the end of their 3yo season, you might as well throw him in that race, since those are the horses he will be racing against next year anyway.

[Just a Fan]

Here are my picks and line:


http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/BC13.aspx?articleid=56287&zoneid=28

With apologies for not regularly reviewing your selections, can you explain how you order your selections, vs the odds that you show? For example, in race 7 you show your top pick at 3-1 (I assume 3-1 is what you would consider "fair odds") and your 2nd pick is 1-5. If ILTN is 1-5 on your fair odds line then you obviously consider him to be the most likely winner... so since you list Shebestingin on top, does that mean that you anticipate that the actual odds will result in Shebestingin having the best betting value?

With Bee A Magician listed at 1-9 on your odds line, are you implying that she would be worth a wager at any price (she might be!)? Or am I misinterpreting what your odds represent?

[pandy]

With apologies for not regularly reviewing your selections, can you explain how you order your selections, vs the odds that you show? For example, in race 7 you show your top pick at 3-1 (I assume 3-1 is what you would consider "fair odds") and your 2nd pick is 1-5. If ILTN is 1-5 on your fair odds line then you obviously consider him to be the most likely winner... so since you list Shebestingin on top, does that mean that you anticipate that the actual odds will result in Shebestingin having the best betting value?

With Bee A Magician listed at 1-9 on your odds line, are you implying that she would be worth a wager at any price (she might be!)? Or am I misinterpreting what your odds represent?


Yes, with Shebestingin, I'm thinking that she's probably closer in talent to I Luv The Nitelife than will be reflected in the odds, so I think she could be the value bet there. The public will probably bet the favorite as if she can't lose but with Shebestingin being so good now, it could be a closer race than the public thinks.

As for as Bee A Magician, I just think that she is about as close as you can get to a lock which is why I made her 1-9. I don't think she's worth a wager because I wouldn't bet a 1-9 shot under any circumstance unless I'm using in a multiple race exotic like a Pick 4.

Overall my line is consistently very good but not infallible. The thing is, everyone see things in a different way. But if you follow my line during the Meadowlands meet, it gives you a very good idea of what horses are the main contenders and what they actual chances of winning are.

[mrroyboy]

Pandy's odd's line is a little different than most others. But it is a very good estimation of who the main contenders are

[mrroyboy]

It looks like I may not be able to watch the races live. The Pocono website says you have to open an account with them but I can't do that because I live in Nevada. Can't do Twin Spires and others either TVG etc. Any suggestions would be great. Thanks

[Zapper]

You should be able to watch them LIVE at this link
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/pocono_downs_mbr/306665

[pandy]

TVG is broadcasting the Breeders Crown live starting at 6:30 p.m. tomorrow night.

[Just a Fan]

Thanks for the explanation Pandy. A lot of public handicappers are obsessed with trying to pick as many winners as possible, and comparing their winner total to everyone else. I kind of like the approach of touting the horse that figures to be the horse to actually bet (even if it might not be the most likely winner of the race).

Good luck Saturday.

[Just a Fan]

It looks like the USTA is streaming the races at the link below. There is a live video/chat button, and I assume that it will be showing the Pocono feed Saturday. Either that, or maybe you will get a video chat room with someone like George Anthony for 6 hours. Almost as good, right? ;)

http://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/breeders_crown/

[mrroyboy]

Good thanks everyone

[jefftune]

I have my picks up at the link below. Funny how everyone is picking Shelliscape (10-1, ML), including me. Hard not to after that monster hung-out-the-whole-mile last week!

-Jeff Tune

http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune/bcrown.html

[mrroyboy]

Ok
Hate to be the spoiler but I am going against Shell. I like no 1 Rocklamation but I will back him up to place just in case.

[Stillriledup]

"AIR" Mcnair went a 25 quarter.

[Just a Fan]

The camerawork, at least on the feed that TVG is showing, is godawful. Extreme closeups that accomplish little and prevent you from seeing the action in the rest of the field.

[Just a Fan]

I had all 3 pick 4's, made the first page of the leaderboard in TVG's contest, and I still lost money. I kind of wonder if anyone made money tonight. Looking forward to seeing the Crown back on a big track (the Big M) in 2014.

I guess if you like seeing the stars of the sport win, it was a good night.

[LottaKash]

I had all 3 pick 4's, made the first page of the leaderboard in TVG's contest, and I still lost money. I kind of wonder if anyone made money tonight. Looking forward to seeing the Crown back on a big track (the Big M) in 2014.

I guess if you like seeing the stars of the sport win, it was a good night.

I made only one wager myself tonite....It was on "Foiled Again" when he was around 5/2....When he dropped to 6/5 then 4/5 I cancelled the play....

But what a horse that Foiled guy is....And, fwiw, that last race, that saw Foiled Again win in a squeaker over Pet Rock, well, that was one of the most "wiz bang full tilt boogie of a Free for All race" that I have ever seen....It was a non stop battle from start to finish....I smiled for the 9yo when they put his number up....What a hoss, and for so long a time, and year after year.....5 1/2 Million in the bank and probably the gamest and toughest horse, ever, in harness racing...Imo, Foiled Again is the John Henry of the Standardbred world...:jump:

It was fun to watch all the good ones race tonite, but when you are not betting, it isn't the greatest of times for me....I enjoyed it all the same...

[Just a Fan]

That was a hell of a race. I didn't think Foiled Again was going to win at the 3/4, at the top of the stretch, or in midstretch, but he dug in.

I kind of like your John Henry comparison. I just looked up JH, and he made 2.3 million as a 9 year old.

[pandy]

Foiled Again won his 74th career race, amazing. But I do think that Warrawee Needy would have won the race if he didn't break, tough luck for new trainer Mark Ford. Best drive of night was Pierce's drive in the 2yo filly trot. Best performance was Bee A Magician who was amazing, 1:52.4 over an off track and she was in hand. Great night of racing, rain wasn't a big deal. Great job by Mohegan Sun again.

[MutuelClerk]

Agree with Pandy. Great night of racing. I wish Bee a Magician would have faced the boys one time this year. I hope Foiled Again retires after today. Fitting, great career. Good thing the handicapping contest was free. A lot of favorites. Not my thing. Looking forward to Father Patrick next year. All in all very enjoyable racing.

[cmp92]

I drove down to Pocono to watch the races live. I loved the place. Didn't get a chance to check out the casino, but it looked like it was pretty big and I saw some table games. The racetrack was nice, obviously very crowded at the betting windows but that's to be expected. I posted a profit on the night mostly because I bet double what I wanted on Market Share.

[cmp92]

The three year old colts and geldings pacers did not disappoint in my opinion. Sunshine Beach raced valiantly. The race was complete reversal of the Battle of the Brandywine, this time the Captain cut the mile and Sunshine had to grind it out first over.

Vegas got buried behind cover, but I think he's definitely worn down. I don't know what Coleman plans to do next with him, but I think he needs some time off.

[camourous]

The camerawork, at least on the feed that TVG is showing, is godawful. Extreme closeups that accomplish little and prevent you from seeing the action in the rest of the field.

Camera work was probably as bad as watching t-bred races on NBC/ESPN, was impossible to see if anyone was closing(but it's Pocono no one closes) and a few races they switched the camera angle right at the wire so you didn't see the horses hit the finish.

[Zapper]

The three year old colts and geldings pacers did not disappoint in my opinion. Sunshine Beach raced valiantly. The race was complete reversal of the Battle of the Brandywine, this time the Captain cut the mile and Sunshine had to grind it out first over.

Vegas got buried behind cover, but I think he's definitely worn down. I don't know what Coleman plans to do next with him, but I think he needs some time off.

Word on the street was that VV didnt not come out of Ohio in very good shape.In Lexington it took lots of vet work to get this one to race without looking lame and the last 2 starts in the Breeders elims and the final tell the true story.This one should get the rest of the year off before he ups up like the cheddar horse.

[cmp92]

Word on the street was that VV didnt not come out of Ohio in very good shape.In Lexington it took lots of vet work to get this one to race without looking lame and the last 2 starts in the Breeders elims and the final tell the true story.This one should get the rest of the year off before he ups up like the cheddar horse.
Interesting. I see Vegas is eligible for the Messenger, we'll see if he goes.

[Just a Fan]

[QUOTE=cmp92]The three year old colts and geldings pacers did not disappoint in my opinion. Sunshine Beach raced valiantly. The race was complete reversal of the Battle of the Brandywine, this time the Captain cut the mile and Sunshine had to grind it out first over.

Sunshine Beach was fantastic last night.

[cmp92]

[QUOTE=cmp92]The three year old colts and geldings pacers did not disappoint in my opinion. Sunshine Beach raced valiantly. The race was complete reversal of the Battle of the Brandywine, this time the Captain cut the mile and Sunshine had to grind it out first over.

Sunshine Beach was fantastic last night.
Yes, he was. He got parked every step and they put up a quick split going down the backstretch. He's been lacking the consistency to really be the Captain's chief rival, compared to Vegas. But, that could be changing given Vegas' recent performances.

[LottaKash]

Interesting. I see Vegas is eligible for the Messenger, we'll see if he goes.

Imo, Vegas is one tired horse these days....He had a good season tho, and was almost always a factor in his races...Tired...

Sunshine Beach is a new horse, and the Captain will have his hands full if they meet up again, I think...Looking forward to them as 4yo's...

[Sinner369]

[QUOTE=cmp92]The three year old colts and geldings pacers did not disappoint in my opinion. Sunshine Beach raced valiantly. The race was complete reversal of the Battle of the Brandywine, this time the Captain cut the mile and Sunshine had to grind it out first over.

Sunshine Beach was fantastic last night.


The Sunshine was obviously good but I thought that it was a typical great drive by the legendary John Campbell.........seen it so many times in stakes competition where Campbell has an outside post and cannot get good position so he races parked the whole trip and he gradually moves the horse into contention.

[LottaKash]

FROM STANDARDBRED CANADA



Record Handle For Pocono


Published: October 24, 2013 3:55 pm ET

No Comments | Jump to Comments (http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/10-24-13/record-handle-pocono.html#comments)

Saturday, October 19 was a record-breaking night for Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs, as it hosted the 2013 Breeders Crown. All 12 championship races were held with purses in excess of $6-million.

A record handle for the track in Northeast Pennsylvania was reached, and the number was also the largest handle ever for a harness track in Pennsylvania. Including Australia and New Zealand, the total handle was over $3.2-million. In 2010, when the track hosted the Breeders Crown, the total handle was $2.3-million.

The estimated crowd for Saturday night was over 9,000 people. Both the VIP tent and the patio seats, both sold on Ticketmaster, were sold out before the event. Fans poured into the two complimentary general admission tents and free grandstand, and every bench, chair, and table was filled on the track apron. The on-and-off showers did little to dampen the enthusiasm of the fans, on hand to see the best racing.

[Just a Fan]

About 450,000 of Pocono's handle was from the show pools, several of which were minus pools. Tracks never seem to mention that when they shoot out press releases about big handles.

Woodbine handled 3.6M on a 12 race Crown night in 2011. I can't find the 2012 number (also at Woodbine). I guess there was uncertainty about the status of the WEG tracks and the Meadowlands when they assigned the 2013 Crown to Pocono, but the bettors seem to be saying that they would prefer the event to be held on a big track.