Let's Cap a Keeneland Race for Thursday

[JustRalph]

KEE R8 6F D 10-10-2013
16:49 EASTERN ALLOWANCE.
Purse $58;000

This one looks contentious.

I see a hot pace in this one. :7: n :11: go out to the front ?

Got to play a late runner in here.

:4: :2: :6: with hopefully the favs ( :7: :11: ) fading.

I suck on this track......... fyi

[kingfin66]

I think most of us probably suck at Kee, but there is a nice sized field and this looks to be a good betting race. The potential fast pace in conjunction with a developing "fair" profile at this distance (we have had both wire to wire and deep closers winning at this distance so far), makes it that much tougher to 'cap. I am looking at the :9: horse in this race. It has had some success at Kee with two 3rd place finishes, will not be near the lead early, but should move on the turn. It's 10-1 M/L is a prelude to a nice price. I think it will be overlooked off its recent turf form, but will turn in a good effort today.

[letswastemoney]

#10 Stealth Bolt! (15/1). You can tip me at my PayPal account once she wins!!!

[Robert Fischer]

I like the :3: in that race. Lady Raven.

She has had issues, and is running off of a 9 month layoff. Good works and this entry signals trainer confidence.


Then again, she could falter in the stretch like she always does.

[shouldacoulda]

:11: :1: :7:
:11: Can't count out Napravnik here with this horse. Both :1: & :11: are coming out of the same race and dropping in class. Granted it was turf but was still a 1:09 6f race. She won with this horse before from off the pace.

The :1: has raced 3 times and in the money every time. If it breaks out on an early lead it might be game over. Rail is winning at 20% clip for week according to Bris sheets. Also 2nd off a layoff which I like.

:7: Coming off a 3 month layoff. Works look good and like the jockey change. Has raced 6 times and all 6 in the money. Has back class and taking a jump from his last start. I don't think it can win here though. Bris sheets have it on top.

I think you will see the :2: and the :5: battle for the early lead with the :1: :11: :7: breathing down their backs and taking the lead coming out of the turn.
I would look for a :11: :1: :7: finish. I really like the :1: but I think the difference will be in the jockeys and the :11: has the highest Prime Power rating.

The :10: could be dangerous here shipping from Woodbine and has the class and good works as well. According to Bris sheets S style horses have a 60%win rate but I don't think it will be able to keep up though. :8: also could upset here. Shipping from Chicago and getting Lasix for first time and jockey change. Coming off a layoff and had 2 decent works.

BTW I really stink at Keenland too. I think the public will bet the :11: down to nothing and would probably play the :1: just for the odds if I play it at all. Will be interesting to watch though.

[Tee]

I could see the :9: Noun getting a slice. :7: Miffed appears to be ready, but how much edge will she have off he bench?

Is the :8: Terfaashah just getting a trip around the track today, or is a surprise in wait?

[cj's dad]

:9:- Noun - best closer by youknowwho #'s

[Jingle]

How about the 11 with 1,2,3 for an exacta box.

[Arapola]

Box the 1,9,11 in Exacta's and Tri's.
9 to Win

[KidCapper]

Keeneland Race 8-- Picked a tough race to handicap here. I'll tab the :7: as the one to beat in here. Has shown me a few things to make this the one to bet:

1.) Has the speed to lay close to the pace and lead if necessary.

2.) Has also shown the ability to come from way back giving Rocco options here.

3.) Ran 3rd over this surface so the poly is not an issue.

4.) Bullet work Sept 21st 5F 59.3

5.) Trainer 15% off the brief freshening.

My Bet here: $10 WP :7: $5 Exacta Box :7: :9: :11:

Good Luck with this race cappers!

[BIG HIT]

Like the #3 win #9-#11 two fill other two spots

[Jingle]

My number 11 is scratched at Keenland so I'll go with the 1 and the 2,3,7 for an exacta box.

[shouldacoulda]

Just looked at the jockey / trainer numbers. :9: Asmussen / Santana 27% for 273 starts. Looking at the April 14th race where he closed 13 lengths 4 wide on this track. An impressive performance. I don't know if I would play this race at all. At 10-1 it might make a good value play. 2nd off a layoff with a go to jockey (change) is a great angle.

[TexasDolly]

I like the 6 and 12 to win with an exbox 4,6,7,12. Race seems to offer a chance at a good payoff with all the apparent contenders.
TD

[Red Knave]

I'll take 1 and 8 to win and box with 7, 12 in exactas.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Tough race JR. I haven't played KEE in a decade probably and am almost scared to move out of my usual handicapping box of recent years. But, looks fun.

:1: 3yo's races earlier in the season are pretty good, I think. Got a little two plus month break and looks like the turf race back was probably a really good effort that should have her tightened down to hopefully run as well as possible here. The nice easy five-eighths work should have her tightened down as well as take a little edge off for this one.

:7: Just six career starts and they are all good ones, including one over the surface in which it appears the rider lost the stick right as he actually needed it most. She's been off a bit and has been working great for the return - would probably be my clear top pick (and if I weren't lazy and actually betting I might go watch some races) - but running lines sort of make me wonder if she's one that starts to lose interest if she makes the lead early or something. Or maybe a little air trouble. Seems like she gets right about to even terms late in the stretch and then loses ground the closer to the wire she gets - and that's whether she's on the pace, setting the pace, stalking the pace - just paints a picture of a filly that lacks finish.

:9: With plenty of races on her form to look at, the ones that really catch my eye as her better efforts are those over this surface. Assmussen had her showing more early speed after he claimed her and though it may not be her best style, it at least shows to me that she isn't completely at the mercy of the race and just the sort that will get in the hunt late if everyone stops and the race falls apart. Her $40kN2L win at CD for Assmussen rates right up there with the Keeneland as the ones that I like most, so I'm inclined to think that this spot sprinting, not on turf, is probably where she has the best shot to shine.

:12: Don't really think that this one is much threat to crack the exacta, but if you are playing the big gimmicks, she's probably one you almost have to throw in at a fair price underneath. Basically looks like she runs her best race when they do as little as possible with her until the five-sixteenths and then try to just pick up scraps. I doubt that she'll win a of races, but she could make a nice chunk of change with that approach over the long haul and suspect she may run well over this surface and sneak in there.


A bet:

$20 w #1 = $20

$3 exacta box 1,7 - 1,7,9,12 =$36
$4 exacta box 1 - 7,9,12 = $24

$1 tri 1,7 - 1,7,9,12 = $12
$1 tri 1 - 7,9,12 - 2,3,7,8,9,10,12 = $18

Tried to make it an even $100 like some kind of TVG selection rule format, but missed. Probably going to be a theme with this race for me. :D

[jerry-g]

I would have to go with the :1: to win and a bet if the odds hold up. If
they don't, then I'll get a little miffed and bet on :7: Miffed at 5/1 or
better odds.

[JustRalph]

The :11: being scratched makes this a different race. Less pace I think.

Probably hurt the late runners and will probably make the :7: a shorter priced fav?

Who knows. I will stick with my picks, but it got easier for the :7:. Maybe somebody gets more brave and goes out on the lead.

[JustRalph]

Looks like a front runners track so far today........ugh

[JimG]

I'll go with :7: and :6:

Jim

[Immanuel Kant]

Think the scratch of the 11 helps the 7 here......would play 7 WP and box the 7 with the 3

[letswastemoney]

Looks like a front runners track so far today........ugh
Are you sure? Key to Fame just rallied wide on the outside in Race 6 at 18/1.

[Ocala Mike]

Strictly from a reading of the DD will pays (and related to another thread about tote board influences), I would think the :10: is extremely live here.

[NJ Stinks]

In light of my view that this field is full of untrustworthy entries, I'm taking a plunge on the :4: . Causara could be any kind and at the current odds I'm (11-1), I'm willing to take a shot that she's the right kind.

The filly I fear the most is the :1: . So it's the :4: to win and :1: /:4: exacta box for me.

[Not4Love]

Tough race. #1 ANUSARA

[Robert Fischer]

$50 win on :3:

[Stillriledup]

Tough race JR. I haven't played KEE in a decade probably and am almost scared to move out of my usual handicapping box of recent years. But, looks fun.

:1: 3yo's races earlier in the season are pretty good, I think. Got a little two plus month break and looks like the turf race back was probably a really good effort that should have her tightened down to hopefully run as well as possible here. The nice easy five-eighths work should have her tightened down as well as take a little edge off for this one.

:7: Just six career starts and they are all good ones, including one over the surface in which it appears the rider lost the stick right as he actually needed it most. She's been off a bit and has been working great for the return - would probably be my clear top pick (and if I weren't lazy and actually betting I might go watch some races) - but running lines sort of make me wonder if she's one that starts to lose interest if she makes the lead early or something. Or maybe a little air trouble. Seems like she gets right about to even terms late in the stretch and then loses ground the closer to the wire she gets - and that's whether she's on the pace, setting the pace, stalking the pace - just paints a picture of a filly that lacks finish.

:9: With plenty of races on her form to look at, the ones that really catch my eye as her better efforts are those over this surface. Assmussen had her showing more early speed after he claimed her and though it may not be her best style, it at least shows to me that she isn't completely at the mercy of the race and just the sort that will get in the hunt late if everyone stops and the race falls apart. Her $40kN2L win at CD for Assmussen rates right up there with the Keeneland as the ones that I like most, so I'm inclined to think that this spot sprinting, not on turf, is probably where she has the best shot to shine.

:12: Don't really think that this one is much threat to crack the exacta, but if you are playing the big gimmicks, she's probably one you almost have to throw in at a fair price underneath. Basically looks like she runs her best race when they do as little as possible with her until the five-sixteenths and then try to just pick up scraps. I doubt that she'll win a of races, but she could make a nice chunk of change with that approach over the long haul and suspect she may run well over this surface and sneak in there.


A bet:

$20 w #1 = $20

$3 exacta box 1,7 - 1,7,9,12 =$36
$4 exacta box 1 - 7,9,12 = $24

$1 tri 1,7 - 1,7,9,12 = $12
$1 tri 1 - 7,9,12 - 2,3,7,8,9,10,12 = $18

Tried to make it an even $100 like some kind of TVG selection rule format, but missed. Probably going to be a theme with this race for me. :D

Fyi, you can bet 50 cent tri's at Keeneland.

[Robert Fischer]

Who had the :5: ?

[Not4Love]

So glad I am not betting my money at that track. So tough.

[Ocala Mike]

A real monkey puzzle of a race. Shouldacoulda the only one who even mentioned the :5: (as a pace factor), and JustRalph said it looks like a front runners track. Major stretch to get that one, fellas. Back to the drawing board for some easier races.

[TexasDolly]

Did we all miss this winner ?
TD

[Robert Fischer]

half of us picked the :1:.

Most said it was a 'tough race'.

Nice race to wheel the :1: top and bottom. :cool:

[letswastemoney]

From a fan standpoint, I'd like to see the full sister to Optimizer win the last race.

[letswastemoney]

The daughter of Golden Apples won instead. I can't believe she was 8/1.

The full sister to Optimizer finished second at 7/1. There is money to be made at Keeneland...

[shouldacoulda]

A real monkey puzzle of a race. Shouldacoulda the only one who even mentioned the :5: (as a pace factor), and JustRalph said it looks like a front runners track. Major stretch to get that one, fellas. Back to the drawing board for some easier races.

I still like the :1: :bang: Made one heck of an effort. The real surprise was the :7: . I had to do some running around and wound up watching the race on my iphone in the parking lot after leaving the DMV. I would put the :1: on a watch list. The :5: was holding up the lead and he almost ran it down from 6 wide. Classic Jim Lehane play. Looked like peak form on my tiny little screen.

The beauty of hindsight is looking at the comment for trainer turf to all weather tracks 33% just 1 for three though on a closer look. Couldn't hang my hat on that. I went for a 1,9 /1,9,6,7,10 exacta and a win bet on the :1: I expected a speed duel with all that early speed in the race. Oh well. That's racing. :) If it was easy, everybody would do it.

[BIG HIT]

My big knock was trk came from compared two rest of field so cheap come pared to sar woodbine and other it kinda over road positves shoulda coulda how you deal with that? as your only one who mention him frist glance was cheap spd any body want two chime in would be interested

[shouldacoulda]

half of us picked the :1:.

Most said it was a 'tough race'.

Nice race to wheel the :1: top and bottom. :cool:
You can say that again. I was thinking the same thing after the race ended. Just a little too late.

[shouldacoulda]

My big knock was trk came from compared two rest of field so cheap come pared to sar woodbine and other it kinda over road positves shoulda coulda how you deal with that? as your only one who mention him frist glance was cheap spd any body want two chime in would be interested

What caught my eye was E/P5 rating on bris and 2nd race back first fraction was 21 sec flat. He was a length in front then. The only horses to compete in those early low times were the :2: :5: :7: . I really expected a 2,3 or 4 way battle for the early lead. Instead he just ran away with it. You know Bris had last weeks S type horses winning at a 60% rate. Problem is, that was last week. Biasis change. I might have done things different had I been able to sit in front of the computer and see the post parade but I didn't. Win some, loose some.

[BIG HIT]

I thought #5 was best lay off horse considering trainer and show imf off lay my problem was never run at top notch trk just couldn't get pass that knock thanks for your answer

[JustRalph]

Just got home and watched the replay. Been on the road.

That track flipped big time. If my numbers are right. And I know it's early in the meet. But I show early runners very disadvantaged at 6F so far. At just plain sprints......too. Not sure if this will format right


Actual Expected Actual/Expected Win
Track Weight Analysis Winners Winners Ratio Roi
Early CPace 123 7.00 9.16 0.7645 0.8706
CompoundLate 123 10.00 6.58 1.5193 1.6294

Actual Expected Actual/Expected
Run Style Analysis Winners Winners Ratio
E 3.00 4.02 0.7456
EP 3.00 4.85 0.6192
P 6.00 3.88 1.5453
S 3.00 2.34 1.2795
NA 2.00 1.90 1.0505

Approximate Track Weight: 5.00 (Speed Tiring)

I will check later, but I saw speed holding better today than what I anticipated. Much better. But that's just me. Merry Go Round races?

I will analyze just todays card later tonight...........

Thanks everyone for participating. It was fun. :ThmbUp:

[ldiatone]

Who had the :5: ?
(i did)

[JustRalph]

(i did)

Nice hit!

Congrats!

Analyzing just the todays card in Jcapper shows

In Sprints the track went to 2.50 Somewhat speed friendly

In Routes the track went 1.0 Speed Friendly

So this track has swung about 70% back the other way.....combining routes and sprints on the main track......from the speed tiring track it was when you add up the previous days of the meet.

What caused this? Who knows............rain?

[raybo]

Didn't see this thread until today, and didn't play Kee yesterday but this is what RS had for early (EPP), final (PFV), and combined (EPP+PFV), top 3 EPP+PFV would have been my bets at 2/1 or higher odds (past posting, I know, but this shot is what I would have seen regardless):