A re-discovery

[jk3521]

Was lying on the floor playing with my dog and looked over to the bottom shelf of my bookcase and saw an old dusty copy of Dan Geer's Pro Rated Longshots purchased in the mid 1980's. After re-aquainting myself to the system, i went to some old BRIS files and ran a few cards in my head. I had the software version for a while, it was on 3.5 floppy back then , but I remembered that I purchased a similar type program called Longshot Finder. I re-installed that program on an old Windows 98 laptop.I then ran some files through that software. SON OF A GUN !! the old system Geer came up with in the 1970's still works in this hi-tech world. It is so simple to figure, you don't need a computer and the results are phe- nominal ! Sure, you have to sometimes play 2 or 3 horses per race, but if you know your sly trainers on your racing circuit it might not be as hard to figure which of the 2 or 3 horses is the top pick. Also it pays to back-up with a place wager, tonight at CharlesTown it picked two horses that payed over $20 to place. Does anyone else use this chestnut of a system?

[Overlay]

Speaking from memory (without my copy of the book in front of me), I'm not saying that Pro-Rated Longshots is not based on some logical or sound underlying assumptions. However, after I encountered data that came out following PRL's original appearance in 1975, and that allowed development of a reliable estimate of any horse's winning probability, so that I had a dependable basis for not only locating horses that were overlaid, but also judging by how much they were overlaid, less exact systems such as PRL lost their appeal for me. (Just my personal opinion/experience.)

[jk3521]

Speaking from memory (without my copy of the book in front of me), I'm not saying that Pro-Rated Longshots is not based on some logical or sound underlying assumptions. However, after I encountered data that came out following PRL's original appearance in 1975, and that allowed development of a reliable estimate of any horse's winning probability, so that I had a dependable basis for not only locating horses that were overlaid, but also judging by how much they were overlaid, less exact systems such as PRL lost their appeal for me. (Just my personal opinion/experience.)


I only use the system as a guide to probable longshot selections. I remember the software did't spit out many winners on it's own, so I gave up on it.

[appistappis]

my first racing book many many years ago, it laid a good foundation for my longshot plays.

[jk3521]

That this system works is the only proof needed that many longshots do not "just happen", but are planned 2 to 3 races ahead. Wednesday afternoon ,race 5, Fastinov was a play, unfortunately for me he was disqualified and placed third at 20-1. Charlestown that night race 4 Meehan Meehan was a play..$120 to win! I'm a believer.