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ronestes
10-05-2013, 03:32 PM
Do you guys think past handicapper gurus, such as Taulbot,Sartin,Mitchell etc. and their teachings are still revelant in todays game, or do you think the game is mostly random and the most important factor is value, which trumps everything else. Ron

Robert Goren
10-05-2013, 03:41 PM
Everything they wrote about is still valid, but extreme hard to find value in it today because the odds will reflect most of it by the time the betting is done.

Overlay
10-05-2013, 04:10 PM
Do you guys think past handicapper gurus, such as Taulbot,Sartin,Mitchell etc. and their teachings are still revelant in todays game, or do you think the game is mostly random and the most important factor is value, which trumps everything else. Ron
If the game were truly random, the problem wouldn't exist. It would become just like a game of pure chance, where everyone would lose at least the equivalent of the take and breakage if they played long enough.

Past gurus like the ones you mentioned (plus others that I would include, such as Quirin) made the public aware not only of the factors that determined (and still determine) race outcomes, but also of the specific probabilities associated with those factors, which makes value important, but also (as Robert Goren noted above) increasingly more challenging to find. But until such time (if ever) that we reach a state of sophistication where the public sends every horse (and every exotic-wager combination) in every race off at odds that precisely correspond to its actual probability of success, there's still hope.

thaskalos
10-05-2013, 04:24 PM
Do you guys think past handicapper gurus, such as Taulbot,Sartin,Mitchell etc. and their teachings are still revelant in todays game, or do you think the game is mostly random and the most important factor is value, which trumps everything else. Ron
Value is clearly the most important factor...and this value can only be discovered through the player's own independent research. Value cannot be bought from an outside source.

No matter who the "guru" is...the most that he could do for us is give us a push in the right direction. Where we eventually end up is entirely up to us.

FocusWiz
10-05-2013, 04:26 PM
Perhaps the question should be more along the lines, not whether the teachings are relevant or not, but whether or not we need to be looking at the contenders for other edges as well, or perhaps wagering more tightly.

I believe the concept is referred to in economics as "The fallacy of composition." The standard analogy being if one person stands up at a performance to get a better view, that person will succeed in seeing better. However, if everyone in the crowd stands up, the standing individuals will no longer have a distinct advantage, though there will likely be a different distribution of who is seeing better and who is not.

Dave Schwartz
10-05-2013, 06:23 PM
If the game were truly random, the problem wouldn't exist. It would become just like a game of pure chance, where everyone would lose at least the equivalent of the take and breakage if they played long enough.

Past gurus like the ones you mentioned (plus others that I would include, such as Quirin) made the public aware not only of the factors that determined (and still determine) race outcomes, but also of the specific probabilities associated with those factors, which makes value important, but also (as Robert Goren noted above) increasingly more challenging to find. But until such time (if ever) that we reach a state of sophistication where the public sends every horse (and every exotic-wager combination) in every race off at odds that precisely correspond to its actual probability of success, there's still hope.

Value is clearly the most important factor...and this value can only be discovered through the player's own independent research. Value cannot be bought from an outside source.

No matter who the "guru" is...the most that he could do for us is give us a push in the right direction. Where we eventually end up is entirely up to us.

These are both excellent quotes and right on the money.

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