View Full Version : Wise Dan
PoloUK6108
10-05-2013, 02:26 AM
Since his victory in the Shadwell turf last fall, I've been on the Dan bandwagon. He's my favorite kind of horse, a chestnut gelding who just plain gets it done.
He reminds me so much of my grandfather's horse who I've mentioned here before, Bet On Sunshine. He too was a chestnut gelding who had a long, successful stakes career, and he loved Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Over the course of his current streak of 9 consecutive wins, I've seen 4 in person, and hit the tri with Dan alone on top 3 times. He's been good to me.
Wise Dan goes for 10 straight tomorrow, and I can't wait to see it in person. Watching him run is really something to see. Wish my buddy hadn't crapped out on me, (who goes to work on Saturday, right? :rolleyes: :D ) but I still plan to have a ball on my own. It feels like Christmas Eve! The real FallStars show up tomorrow, boys! Gunna be a fun day of exciting racing, will anyone else from PA be in attendance?
TheEdge07
10-05-2013, 04:20 AM
Polo
I think he gets beat tomorrow ,enjoy Keenland imo the best track in America.
Phantombridgejumpe
10-05-2013, 06:40 AM
You giving odds on that hunch?
TheEdge07
10-05-2013, 07:19 AM
You giving odds on that hunch?
Post 10 inside speed going into the turn..yep ill take a chance against WD who has had cupcake races this year..Im not wagering on any horse beating him....im wagering on his trip beating him.
PICSIX
10-05-2013, 08:27 AM
Polo
I think he gets beat tomorrow ,enjoy Keenland imo the best track in America.
By the Jock??? :lol: :lol:
raybo
10-05-2013, 11:55 AM
Hoping class rules here, as it is turf and a G1. My class ratings in ranked order (top 6): :10: :7: :2: :9: :6: :3:
Will bet the top 3 ( :10: :7: :2: ) at 2/1 or higher odds, so I'll likely be betting against Wise Dan due to his low odds.
OntheRail
10-05-2013, 12:56 PM
Well it's not a Handicap so he not giving weight... that minimizes the gate position. He's a smart horse as long as JV let's him run his race should be #10.
I'll not bet against him.
raybo
10-05-2013, 01:11 PM
Well it's not a Handicap so he not giving weight... that minimizes the gate position. He's a smart horse as long as JV let's him run his race should be #10.
I'll not bet against him.
If I were betting a single horse I would bet him at any odds, however that's not the way I play. I'd rather get beat by a low priced horse than take only 1 shot, in races like this, with a low priced horse.
JustRalph
10-05-2013, 01:43 PM
Post 10 inside speed going into the turn..yep ill take a chance against WD who has had cupcake races this year..Im not wagering on any horse beating him....im wagering on his trip beating him.
eventually that has to happen huh?
:8: :10: :9: :6:
raybo
10-05-2013, 02:11 PM
eventually that has to happen huh?
:8: :10: :9: :6:
Good chance of it, we all know that anything can happen in individual races. :ThmbUp:
olddaddy
10-05-2013, 02:35 PM
Ill try with the unknown :1:
iceknight
10-05-2013, 04:18 PM
So.. is it raining in Keenland now? Well it is..
and so how will yielding turf affect this. Will Silver Max wire it?
iceknight
10-05-2013, 04:45 PM
So.. is it raining in Keenland now? Well it is..
and so how will yielding turf affect this. Will Silver Max wire it? Well.. they just announced it:
KEE Race 9 = Shadwell 1 1/16th polytrack Stakes race!
off the turf.. wonder how many scratches... and if Wise Dan scratches or plays against a smaller field?
Do champions scratch when it rains?
He has been touted as not jut a grass horse ....he better run.
Some_One
10-05-2013, 04:50 PM
The connections don't need much of an excuse to duck.
Stillriledup
10-05-2013, 04:54 PM
Well.. they just announced it:
KEE Race 9 = Shadwell 1 1/16th polytrack Stakes race!
off the turf.. wonder how many scratches... and if Wise Dan scratches or plays against a smaller field?
The smartest bettors in America probably spread in the pick 4 in this race, if Wise Dan scratches, some other horse is going to be 1-5 or 1-9 in pick 4s. I saw that weather and didnt take advantage of it. :bang:
JustRalph
10-05-2013, 04:56 PM
Wow......... just Wow!
maclr11
10-05-2013, 04:57 PM
The Pick 4 and Pick 5 will both consider that an ALL leg I believe since I believe that is the rule.
ManU918
10-05-2013, 05:09 PM
No scratches...
Shelby
10-05-2013, 05:14 PM
Yep, now this race is a free square.
Interesting that they would have scratched Wise Dan had it stayed on the turf.
Stillriledup
10-05-2013, 05:26 PM
The smartest bettors in America probably spread in the pick 4 in this race, if Wise Dan scratches, some other horse is going to be 1-5 or 1-9 in pick 4s. I saw that weather and didnt take advantage of it. :bang:
Actually, it was the opposite....you single wise dan and you get the same price as all the others. Who knew!
098poi
10-05-2013, 05:26 PM
I'll say a win bet on :6: and :9:.
JustRalph
10-05-2013, 05:28 PM
Yep, now this race is a free square.
Interesting that they would have scratched Wise Dan had it stayed on the turf.
That took the Wow, out of my WoW!
raybo
10-05-2013, 05:32 PM
Still like Wise Dan, even on the dirt.
Some_One
10-05-2013, 05:33 PM
Goodbye HOY
TheEdge07
10-05-2013, 05:34 PM
Post 10 inside speed going into the turn..yep ill take a chance against WD who has had cupcake races this year..Im not wagering on any horse beating him....im wagering on his trip beating him.
Shazammm
OK, now I have more respect for him.
He lost.
Big deal.
Secretariat got beat.
He danced that dance,, even with a last minute change of surfaces.
I respect trying and losing far more than ducking and winning.
Some_One
10-05-2013, 05:37 PM
Shazammm
Could have laid him at 1.3 on Betfair (risking 30 cents to win 1 dollar), winner went off at 19-1 on BF.
098poi
10-05-2013, 05:40 PM
I'll say a win bet on :6: and :9:.
Bingo! Too bad I didn't bet.
iceknight
10-05-2013, 05:40 PM
So.. is it raining in Keenland now? Well it is..
and so how will yielding turf affect this. Will Silver Max wire it? My 'effin computer shut down for no 'effin reason and by the time I got back on.. it was several minutes (safe mode bs etc) and I see that I had not bet in spite of getting more than 5-1 :bang: :bang:
Also I realize that it is Keeneland...
JustRalph
10-05-2013, 05:40 PM
so, if you singled Wise Dan and now you get an all, you just joined the winners pool with those who played the Winner?
If you were smart enough to play the winner singled.......you just got screwed?
raybo
10-05-2013, 05:40 PM
Goodbye HOY
I doubt one race, taken off the turf, will keep him from HOY.
CincyHorseplayer
10-05-2013, 05:40 PM
OK, now I have more respect for him.
He lost.
Big deal.
Secretariat got beat.
He danced that dance,, even with a last minute change of surfaces.
I respect trying and losing far more than ducking and winning.
Absolutely.Those type of runs might be a marketing campaign but are a total sham.
And yes,poly indeed!:D
menifee
10-05-2013, 05:59 PM
Wise Dan ran a nice race. No shame in losing. He actually took a big bump into the first turn. Might have knocked him out of his best race.
Obviously, on the other hand, has really lost his form.
ManU918
10-05-2013, 06:20 PM
Can anyone put a ballpark on what the PK5 would have paid if the 4th leg would not have been an all?
Stillriledup
10-05-2013, 06:21 PM
so, if you singled Wise Dan and now you get an all, you just joined the winners pool with those who played the Winner?
If you were smart enough to play the winner singled.......you just got screwed?
Yes. If you were smart enough to predict rain and a surface switch (and when the pick 4 started, it WAS raining, so handicappers had this info to work with) than yes, you took it in the shorts.
Good job Keeneland.
ManU918
10-05-2013, 06:24 PM
so, if you singled Wise Dan and now you get an all, you just joined the winners pool with those who played the Winner?
If you were smart enough to play the winner singled.......you just got screwed?
I had two singles... 9 in the 9th and the 5 in the 10th... So yes I got screwed... royally.
menifee
10-05-2013, 06:26 PM
Can anyone put a ballpark on what the PK5 would have paid if the 4th leg would not have been an all?
That is tough to guess. It would pay much higher than the parlay because Wise Dan a single on so many tickets. I think you are probably talking 10-15k for .50
ManU918
10-05-2013, 06:28 PM
That is tough to guess. It would pay much higher than the parlay because Wise Dan a single on so many tickets. I think you are probably talking 10-15k for .50
Okay I am going to go puke now... 15 dimes? Jesus Christ I was thinking maybe 5. FML... I'm going to the bar.
Stillriledup
10-05-2013, 06:33 PM
That is tough to guess. It would pay much higher than the parlay because Wise Dan a single on so many tickets. I think you are probably talking 10-15k for .50
I would say lower. The "pick 4" in the other races of the sequence paid 739, so if you say that the winner of the "all" race was 7-1 and you "7 times" that bet, you get about 5,000. I would estimate it would have paid between 4k and 6k for 50 cents.
ManU918
10-05-2013, 06:35 PM
I would say lower. The "pick 4" in the other races of the sequence paid 739, so if you say that the winner of the "all" race was 7-1 and you "7 times" that bet, you get about 5,000. I would estimate it would have paid between 4k and 6k for 50 cents.
That makes me feel better... But I am still going to the bar... My ticket was as follows... 1,3/1,2,3/All/9/5.... Maybe your right if its on turf maybe the 9 loses... but maybe he doesn't...
Stillriledup
10-05-2013, 06:42 PM
That makes me feel better... But I am still going to the bar... My ticket was as follows... 1,3/1,2,3/All/9/5.... Maybe your right if its on turf maybe the 9 loses... but maybe he doesn't...
You specifically bet against Wise Dan and they got the same amount you did for losing. Sorry ManU, that's a brutal beat.
JustRalph
10-05-2013, 07:05 PM
What other choice did they have?
ManU918
10-05-2013, 08:03 PM
You specifically bet against Wise Dan and they got the same amount you did for losing. Sorry ManU, that's a brutal beat.
Honestly... Its pretty much my life story.... But anyways the paper that I brought to the track with all of my bets had Wise Dan singled and when I was standing at the machine I said **** it and I hit the 9. I had a feeling that both Groupie Doll and Dan would lose today... To bad the exchanges aren't legal here or I would of made serious money by offering both at juicy prices for those who would of wanted to bet on them.
Usually I'm wrong on one of my singles in exotics and chose to change Dan at the last second instead of the 5 in the last leg.
What other choice did they have?
Before polytrack, Keeneland basically NEVER came off the turf, and that includes worse weather than today.
menifee
10-05-2013, 09:10 PM
I would say lower. The "pick 4" in the other races of the sequence paid 739, so if you say that the winner of the "all" race was 7-1 and you "7 times" that bet, you get about 5,000. I would estimate it would have paid between 4k and 6k for 50 cents.
Disagree - much higher than the parlay - wise Dan was singled on so many tickets - 10k at least
Stillriledup
10-05-2013, 10:15 PM
Disagree - much higher than the parlay - wise Dan was singled on so many tickets - 10k at least
The winner was 7-1, he was going to be 7-1 on turf, poly or whatever, he might have even been less than 7-1 on turf. A 7-1 shot is a 7-1 shot, are you saying that the winner was 7-1 in the win pool and 12-1 or 15-1 in exotics?
Irish Boy
10-05-2013, 10:49 PM
The winner was 7-1, he was going to be 7-1 on turf, poly or whatever, he might have even been less than 7-1 on turf. A 7-1 shot is a 7-1 shot, are you saying that the winner was 7-1 in the win pool and 12-1 or 15-1 in exotics?
Of course. That's literally an every day occurrence.
menifee
10-06-2013, 12:09 AM
The winner was 7-1, he was going to be 7-1 on turf, poly or whatever, he might have even been less than 7-1 on turf. A 7-1 shot is a 7-1 shot, are you saying that the winner was 7-1 in the win pool and 12-1 or 15-1 in exotics?
Look at the last p3 for the true value of Silver Max in that sequence (10-1 or so). I would imagine Wise Dan was even more of a single for a lot of people in the p5 so I think Silver Max's odds are even greater in that sequence.
SharpCat
10-06-2013, 01:21 AM
I doubt one race, taken off the turf, will keep him from HOY.
Hard to use that angle considering he holds the 1-1/8 track record at Keenland. Game on Dude HOY not yet but he has a very big lead and were in the stretch.
SharpCat
10-06-2013, 01:26 AM
Wise Dan ran a nice race. No shame in losing. He actually took a big bump into the first turn. Might have knocked him out of his best race.
Obviously, on the other hand, has really lost his form.
Would love to see Obviously run down the hill in the Turf Sprint.
raybo
10-06-2013, 01:36 AM
Hard to use that angle considering he holds the 1-1/8 track record at Keenland. Game on Dude HOY not yet but he has a very big lead and were in the stretch.
Guess we'll see, huh?
SharpCat
10-06-2013, 01:58 AM
Guess we'll see, huh?
What's your opinion on HOY?
raybo
10-06-2013, 02:10 AM
What's your opinion on HOY?
I still think Wise Dan deserves it, for obvious reasons, his record for one. But, that's up to others to decide, so who knows?
Genjoi
10-06-2013, 02:16 AM
Anyone think Princess of Sylmar has a shot at hoty now if Game on dude runs poorly/
SharpCat
10-06-2013, 02:26 AM
I still think Wise Dan deserves it, for obvious reasons, his record for one. But, that's up to others to decide, so who knows?
His race record this year simply does not compare to what Game on Dude has done this year.
SharpCat
10-06-2013, 02:33 AM
Anyone think Princess of Sylmar has a shot at hoty now if Game on dude runs poorly/
The only possible scenario where I could see Princess of Sylmar winning HOY would be if she were to win the Distaff with Wise Dan and Game on Dude running poorly in their races. Not impossible but highly unlikely.
raybo
10-06-2013, 02:39 AM
His race record this year simply does not compare to what Game on Dude has done this year.
What's your agenda? Are you trying to prove something here? I have my opinion, you have yours. They're both only opinions. What does Game on Dude have now 6? Didn't Wise Dan have 9? Something like that. As I said, it's not up to me, or you, that decision will be made by others.
SharpCat
10-06-2013, 03:18 AM
What's your agenda? Are you trying to prove something here? I have my opinion, you have yours. They're both only opinions. What does Game on Dude have now 6? Didn't Wise Dan have 9? Something like that. As I said, it's not up to me, or you, that decision will be made by others.
No agenda here. You brought up Wise Dan's record and 9 consecutive wins 4 of those coming last year. I'm basing my opinion as far as HOY solely on what has taken place on the racetrack this year.
Some_One
10-06-2013, 03:36 AM
I still think Wise Dan deserves it, for obvious reasons, his record for one. But, that's up to others to decide, so who knows?
Deserves it? wtf is that? a HOY should be earned, and yes I do think Game on Dude has done more to earn it considering he's won 3 of the premier G1's on the continent
raybo
10-06-2013, 12:37 PM
Deserves it? wtf is that? a HOY should be earned, and yes I do think Game on Dude has done more to earn it considering he's won 3 of the premier G1's on the continent
It's an opinion, just like yours. Why are you getting so upset, you don't have to accept my opinion. Take your rant to someone else please, I really don't have time for arguments this asinine.
burnsy
10-06-2013, 12:44 PM
Deserves it? wtf is that? a HOY should be earned, and yes I do think Game on Dude has done more to earn it considering he's won 3 of the premier G1's on the continent
I agree with you, Game on Dude has has another great year. But if he loses again this year the door opens for others. I mean, at some point you have to be objective and honest. Yeah, they call those races grade 1's but look at who he beats. Mucho Macho made those horses look like slugs out there and he has a hard time winning on the east coast. There are a few horses from the east that on their best day make a really tough field (including Mucho Macho). These horses don't just hand over an easy lead and that makes things alot harder for Game on Dude....hes won alot of races but when the water gets deep he still has something to prove> Hes good, he won't be great until he wins one of these, at his own track for crying out loud, which means at a short price, you know i'll be looking around. To me, missing the break is not an excuse if you are that good, great horses deal with adversity and still win. (at least make it a race) Which proves to me hes not any better than these east coast horses until he beats them. If Mucho Macho or someone else raced out there it would be like a match race with Game on Dude all summer long....those others hes been beating have proven they are 6-8 lengths behind the top contenders, just on form alone. He got a break when Crosstown got hurt because that would of made it even harder. I hope people think hes a cinch again, because i don't really see it until he proves me wrong.
Two horse that do not deserve it - Fort Larned and Wise Dan.
PoloUK6108
10-06-2013, 02:11 PM
So if he's to win out the rest of the year...he's still out of the picture? I respectfully disagree
There' s only one race left.
Unless he beat GOD, he has no chance.
If GOD runs 2nd, he has no chance.
He does not deserve it this year.
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