October Issue Released: Maloney, KEE Stats

[DeanT]

This month's e-magazine has been released. It's twenty pages, so seeing the inbox this morning, folks are telling us they are printing it out. Sorry to all trees.

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html

An interview with professional horseplayer Mike Maloney. Learn how a pro goes about his betting day, and see if it can help you become a better horseplayer.

Also in this month's e-magazine:

-The Ultimate Keeneland stats pack! Pages and pages of stats and angles; a lot of which you won't find anywhere else. Get an edge at Keeneland for Friday's opener!

-October's super trainer spotlight: When can we bet against Michael Maker?

-What characteristics does Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick have that would make him a great horseplayer?

-Q and A with Derby Wars CEO Mark Midland

-What's up with Del Mar? Will they get a Breeders' Cup and will the track switch to dirt? Mike Shutty has the inside scoop.

-Mike Dorr creates a great Fantasy Horse Racing game, our brand new Harness Racing page with Garnet Barnsdale, Belmont bias, and a whole lot more.


Thanks for reading and thanks to Pace for letting us post it up here!

[JustRalph]

The interview with a newbie was telling.............short, but telling

[DeanT]

Hey Ralph,

I thought exactly the same thing. With some of those one sentence answers, a guy who knows little about horse racing got to the crux of some of the major issues.

[DeanT]

Found out we should have some Barry Meadow articles in future editions. I always get something good out of what Barry writes.

[PaceAdvantage]

Found out we should have some Barry Meadow articles in future editions. I always get something good out of what Barry writes.Me too...this is welcome news.

[DeanT]

I remember subscribing to American Turf Monthly for a few years. A lot of times I'd end up reading Barry's article and nothing else.

Barry, Andy, Steve D, etc, write handicapping stuff that never goes out of style, imo.

[whodoyoulike]

I just finished and enjoyed reading the September 2013 issue. I have a question, at the end there are two separate tables 1) top trainers w/fav. 2013 and 2) top trainers w/longshots > 10 - 1 in 2013. How is IMPACT and ROI calculated? Thanks.

[Jeff P]

Impact Value:

In the Top Trainers with Favorites 2013 category, ASMUSSEN STEVEN M had a win percent of about 0.4214 a day or two before we went to press. The overall win rate for post time favorites ytd 2013 at that same time was about 0.3688. From that, impact value for ASMUSSEN STEVEN M can be calculated as: 0.4214 divided by 0.3688 or about 1.14.



ROI:

ROI is being reported as a percentage return for each $1.00 wagered.

In the Top Trainers with Favorites 2013 category, we calculated the AMT COLLECTED by adding up the $2.00 win mutuels for the 126 winners ASMUSSEN STEVEN M had a day or two before we went to press. Next we calculated the AMT WAGERED by multiplying $2.00 times the the number of starters (in this case 299) ASMUSSEN STEVEN M had at that same time.

From there we simply divided AMT COLLECTED by AMT WAGERED to arrive at the ROI - which in this case was about 0.95 (which translates to 95 cents returned for each $1.00 wagered.)


-jp

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[DeanT]

Do we have Quirin to thank for the concept of IV's in racing, or was there someone who published it before him?

[whodoyoulike]

Jeff, thank you for the explanation.

[DeanT]

We're going to update some Keeneland stats and fire off the update via email this weekend.

If anyone has not seen the issue they can get it here for free.

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html

[cj]

Do we have Quirin to thank for the concept of IV's in racing, or was there someone who published it before him?

First I saw these mentioned in regards to racing were from Quirin.

[DeanT]

First I saw these mentioned in regards to racing were from Quirin.



Funny, I took Handicapping State of the Art, where Quirin took Ainslies "Big Win" and other angles and ran ROI and IV numbers, off the shelf a month or so ago for the first time in many years. It was right after Cary Fotias passed - I ran to my bookshelf to reread "Blinkers Off" (in some sort of homage to a player I really liked, I guess) and saw it again, all tattered a broken up.

What a great book. One of my all time favorites.

[Red Knave]

First I saw these mentioned in regards to racing were from Quirin.
I'm thinking Fred Davis was first. The definition of IV is a little bit liquid but all versions have merit.

[DeanT]

The Breeders Cup issue is getting ready to roll. I hope there are a few things in it that will be worthwhile. Some stats on SA track bias of late, last few years of trainer and rider stats, a few articles, and a 12 question segment with some players. We may post it in the other section because time is of the essence with it.

[Jeff P]

The special BC issue of the HANA Monthly PDF newsletter is now out:
http://horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html

Tons of good stuff in there including stats that I ran using a database spanning the last 4 years of BC graded stakes races. (Scroll to the very last section of the PDF for those.)

BC is different than a typical Fri-Sat because of the giant fields where contention runs deep - resulting in massive public interest and casual money finding its way into the pools.

This creates a special situation that is perhaps best described using the words: "Overlay potential."



-jp

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[JustRalph]

very interesting stats on where winning horses started last out.........

lots to glean from that

I will be forming a UDM immediately that flags Keeneland starters last out