Turf paradise selections [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

johnhannibalsmith

10-01-2013, 11:31 AM

I'm trying to decide if I should start getting energetic now and make a trip down. I think I need to dig through these QH trials a bit and see if there's any way to make money in that part of the card, because at first glance, other than the Bienvenidos, it looks a little stale on opportunity. Then again, I usually go light the first couple of weeks as a rule, but pounders usually get an exemption from the rationale behind that self-imposed edict.

The early pick I spied that may be a play at the right price if he looks good in the flesh is in race 7, first division of the colts' trial. :3: Deliver The Goods - ran once in Albuquerque and got stomped, but showed a little run in the first half. Came back after that debut and has done nothing but work well, with the exception of his most recent, which was only two days ago, so assuming even the taskmaster was just going for something easy before the big race. I'm going to assume that they didn't exactly have him ready to run the first time and he woke up with that experience and if he has any kind of ability at all, he should be able to demonstrate it in this spot.

Hard to guess on a price in a race like this, but thinking he has to end up at double digits or so with a few winners in here, including a CBY MSW winner, the third place finisher from the spring stakes, a second timer with a decent Del Mar debut, and a multiple winner that is stakes placed and an allowance winner at PM and CBY in his last two. Obviously would be expecting a lot to think that Deliver The Goods could handle all of those credentialed foes, but since it may be a tough race to make a buck in without a kicker at a price, he may be the one to make the $5 exacta into a $50 trifecta or some such thing.

And yeah on the jocks. We got Katie Repp back out of mommy retirement. LouieRod doing what he should have done at the end of ArP last year showing up somewhere that he can win races and keep getting better. A pile of pounder jocks in for the trials. Even Rocco Bowen here to ride the stakes. Poor old veteran regulars just can't catch a break around here.

Hmmmm... maybe I need to get energized.

maclr11

10-01-2013, 12:11 PM

I'll get the form this afternoon and take a peek
Rocco Bowen isn't bad he rode here for a couple years
La weekend should b tough once again
I gotta look at the baby race though still

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 02:59 PM

Alright, it's opening day and with four days of entries to look at... sad as it is... today's card may be the highlight of the week.

For the sake of resurrecting the annual thread and shaking off the cobwebs, I'll try to make something happen with this early pick four that covers three trials for the John Deere Futurity.

I thought the first race was a total crapshoot, no pun intended... well, okay, pun acknowledged and intended a bit, so let's call it the leg in the sequence that looks legitimately like the one where you may be able to connect with a price without a whole lot of thought.

The second trial was actually tough for me to narrow, as the logical players aren't exactly steamrollers, but it seemed fairly reckless and counter-productive to run up the ticket by getting too deep in here. I could easily imagine getting blown out of the water here by being too confident with an obvious player or two, so I'll straddle with an extra play in the event of an extreme outside bias and some respect for the kid calling the shots.

Leg three I thought was where you had to single the obvious contender unless you wanted to roll the dice that the pool size would be big enough to justify a big ticket and that the likely odds-on favorite isn't that much of a standout and that it's insane to go counting on the rail draw. I can see both perspectives, particularly being forced to single from the rail, but I can easily see this pick four coming back very light and think you have to be conservative with the outlay here, so though I hate to do it, singling this guy just seems like the best play.

The finale in the sequence is technically a maiden allowance for two-year-olds, but in practice it is a trial for the ATBA sales stakes filly division. I'd actually like to go one deeper than I am, but want to keep my ticket below $50 and will probably regret my choice of the final cut from the ticket. Between thinking the likely favorite will be overly supported and the reality that this is nothing more than a prep and you don't even need to finish anywhere in particular to run in the finals, it seems like a bad spot to be needing anyone in particular, regardless of disparity in apparent talent.

So... here we go 2013/14...

Race 1: .50 pick 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,8,9 / 1 / 1,2,5,6 = $48

Spring training is upon us, let there be light.

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 03:06 PM

Holy Crap!

Turf has upgraded the 1973 graphics with some fancy new 1998 graphics!

maclr11

10-05-2013, 03:24 PM

Taking a shot at the pounder pick 4 as well

Firstly the new graphics look very bright, I kinda was used to the old ones though. I new a change was coming as this is the same tote display system that ASD uses.
The first leg looks wide open
Not quite going all but all the horses who are fit or trained by Matthew Fales, which is normally a good wager.

The second race I didn't wanna use a ton but figured I had to use the 1,3,7,8
Fales looks like the winner from the 8 hole, but try to get him beat with a price horse would be nice. Just a reminder that I know nothing about Quarter Horses.

The third trial I couldn't get past the obvious 1 horse , if he gets beat so do I
Should be much the best coming from Los Alamitos

I really don't think much of Idling as I have watched her before a few times, I'd like to try some other horses in here so I will use everyone who has run before including the three Barrets horses. I don't think Molly's horse can run judging by the works and the rider. Discreet Star is probably the one to beat but I like Lady Charming after a tough trip. I don't like the rider stats on the 4 Sweet G but oh well.

$0.50 Pick 4
2,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,7,8/1/2,4,5,6 $48

maclr11

10-05-2013, 03:27 PM

Late scratch of the 7
Will now use
2,3,4,5,6,9/1,3,7,8/1/2,4,5,6 $48
Just to keep play at $48

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 03:30 PM

...
Race 1: .50 pick 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,8,9 / 1 / 1,2,5,6 = $48

...

The :7: just scratched at the gate (welcome back Turf!) so let's just plug the old 8 in that spot rather than get stuck with the fave twice.

maclr11

10-05-2013, 03:35 PM

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 03:41 PM

Matt Fales wins the first QH race of the year
What a shock
Bet down from 8/1 to 5/1, the horse closed last to catch the favorite
Is Quinella wagering new? I cant remember if Turf had it last year.
Good start to the day.
Fales percentage would be way higher than 24 percent if he didn't run so many doubles and triples in the same race.

Yup, I actually thought this one may end up the favorite. Was bet hard in it's debut and ran into a steamroller that day in trials and then had all kinds of trouble when it ran back in the consolation.

I'm pretty sure quinellas have been available for as long as I've been in AZ. I usually look for discrepancies between the Q and exacta pools if I'm stuck on two I like a ton. The pool is usually horrible, but I've cashed where the Q has been significantly better than the exacta, especially when there's an illogical looking runner that is getting played hard on the tote.

One down, several thousand to go.

maclr11

10-05-2013, 04:01 PM

Make that two wins on the day for Matthew Fales

Now onto our single and I'm gonna play a little backup Pick 3

$1 Pick 3 1,3,4,7,8/2,4,5,6/1 $20

I really like Oh Mexico in the 5th and think he should be really tough to beat.

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 04:01 PM

...Race 1: .50 pick 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,8,9 / 1 / 1,2,5,6 = $48

...

Come on! Find a reason to take the 8 down so I can get the 9 at 19-1 instead of the 8 at 3-5! :lol:

Edited:

Wow! This is what I was talking about with quinellas - should have been paying attention to will pays and actually trying to make some fake money.

My nine runs second to the eight and the $1 exacta pays $36.70...

The $1 quinella pays almost THREE TIMES as much at $96.80...

:eek: :eek: :bang: :bang:

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 04:24 PM

...

Now onto our single and I'm gonna play a little backup Pick 3

$1 Pick 3 1,3,4,7,8/2,4,5,6/1 $20

I really like Oh Mexico in the 5th and think he should be really tough to beat.

Alright, I'm going to follow your lead here with two down and try to figure out how to make the pick 4 a bit less of a losing proposition even with two scores through two.

R3) .50 P3 - 1,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 3,6 = $20

maclr11

10-05-2013, 04:44 PM

Well the Pick 4 is negative to the 2 but I make money if 4,5 or 6 win.
Hoping that the first thourghbred race of the year brings some good luck

I really am not an Idling fan so
$1 Tri 5,6/2,5,6/ALL $16

Schnell has a whole bunch of babies that will run relatively soon
We had some of them up here for a while
I'll talk about them more when they are entered like Kale.

maclr11

10-05-2013, 04:54 PM

Brinkerhoff's horse blows the turn
Huckleberry Finn's horse as Chambers likes to call him stops at the sixteenth pole and Idling rolls on by.. ugh disgusting.
Small payoff, oh well I guess its better than nothing.
Now moving on to the late stuff
Gotta find a play now with the scratch of LA Weekend

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 05:17 PM

Yeah, that pick 4 sort of sucked. I guess I can't stomp my feet in frustration as I had two legs where slight trouble for one or luck for the other would have made the ticket rather worthwhile. If both the 2nd and 4th or either the 2nd and 4th run just slightly different, it's a great start. So, hey, for being in pasture for a few months, I've run worse off the layoff. :D

I don't really like the fifth much at all, but I can see where maybe there's a little chance to make some money.

I used 3 and 6 in my backup P3 figuring I had a chance to inflate the value of the P4 if it ran the way that it did. I don't think either is most likely to win, but I also don't think that those taking all the money are significantly more likely to win than either of those. You know my lack of love for Metz, so I guess I'll try something cheap to try to capitalize on that silly tendency of mine.

R5) $1 tri: 3,6 - 1,3,4,6 = $12

I guess I almost have to make a little swing at the P5, it being opening day at all, but I really don't feel good about the sequence at all.

R5) .50 P5: 1,3,4,6 / 1,7 / 3,4,5,6,7 / 10,11 / 3,4 = $80

Wanted to do it for half that since I'm just playing along, but couldn't cut down one from the eighth or ninth, which were the only options to do so. Oh well.

maclr11

10-05-2013, 05:23 PM

Miguel Angel Silva ships down to Turf and he's home
The first win of many on the year
Oh Mexico ran like the dog he is
Not really a shocker if you take the cynic approach to Turf Paradise
Meaning you love Silva, Diodoro, Chambers and everything else 25% and up

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 05:31 PM

...
I used 3 and 6 in my backup P3 figuring I had a chance to inflate the value of the P4 if it ran the way that it did. I don't think either is most likely to win, but I also don't think that those taking all the money are significantly more likely to win than either of those. You know my lack of love for Metz, so I guess I'll try something cheap to try to capitalize on that silly tendency of mine.

R5) $1 tri: 3,6 - 1,3,4,6 = $12

...

Well, 3 and 6 actually run 1-2 beating the two favorites and allowing me to cash the pick 3... for $8.70 :lol: ... but with Metz stopping like a pig, the tri comes back very nice at $101.60 for the $12 invested.

So before I forget to keep a tally...

...-$48 for pick 4, -$20 for pick 3, -$12 for the tri... +36.60 for pick 4, +8.70 for pick 3, +$101.60 for tri...

-$80 + $146.90 = +$66.90 - $80 for the pick 5...

So I'm only stuck $13.10 with a live ticket if my math is correct.

I already feel like a winner. :lol:

maclr11

10-05-2013, 05:39 PM

I'll try to do the math at the end of the day

$0.50 Pick 4
1,7/7/1,3,5,10,11/1,2,3 $15

Keep it simple early, try to get a little price in the stake and I had to take a major guess in the last.

fmhealth

10-05-2013, 05:43 PM

Good to see the old familiar & incisive posters back here in Paradise. Magnificent day to start the meet in the "Valley of the Sun".

As Mr. Smith has already mentioned, the first few cards don't exactly get your pulse racing. With the Canucks not here in force yet from points north. I'll stick with a few bets on a familiar face & frequent visitor to the "Charmed Circle".

Robert Henson usually has his HST shippers primed & ready to go. He has four going over the next four days. Hopefully, they'll produce a flat bet profit as I'll be wagering on each.

Sat---8th race--# 2-Stormy Canuck (Late scr)

Sun---7th race--#4-Joy of the Lord

Mon---8th race--#5-Got Heem

Tues--4th race--#2-Eleadora

Now only three going as his Sat. entry has been excused from this heat. Best of luck & may we all be basking in a positive ROI by the time the "Hasta La Vista H'cap" is run on closing day.

Be Well,
fmhealth

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 05:50 PM

Hello Mr. fmhealth!

Glad to see you around already.

Well, heck, may as well get my practice swings in here.

This looks like the sort of race to practice those super strategies.

R6)
.50 super: 1,7 - 1,2,6,7 - 1,2,5,6,7 = $18
.50 super 1,7 - 1,2,6,7 - 1,2,6,7 - 1,2,5,6,7 = $12
.50 super 1,7 - 1,2,6,7 = $6

$36 more in the pot.

maclr11

10-05-2013, 05:59 PM

Your killing it today geez
Nice supers, I'll wait for the Bienviedos for some single race wagering
Got to go for a score at some point

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 06:02 PM

...

This looks like the sort of race to practice those super strategies.

R6)
.50 super: 1,7 - 1,2,6,7 - 1,2,5,6,7 = $18
.50 super 1,7 - 1,2,6,7 - 1,2,6,7 - 1,2,5,6,7 = $12
.50 super 1,7 - 1,2,6,7 = $6

$36 more in the pot.

That worked out well. The 6 runs second at 19-1 and the $1 7-6-1-2 super kicks back $151.20.

With $1.50 ticket, we get $226.80 in winners, which after adding in the negative $13.10 balance and subtracting the $36 for the tickets means... I'm actually in the black to the tune of $177.70 fake dollars with a pick 5 still chugging along. :jump:

Guess getting off my ass and going down to Phoenix may have been a better idea than just sitting here after all. :D

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 06:22 PM

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 06:35 PM

Alright, I posted after the overnight came out that I was sort of interested in :3: Deliver The Goods here in race 7 since I thought he'd be a great price. But, he's only 12-1 and this obviously isn't a terribly easy spot. So not sure what to do here, but figure I better think about doing something and putting my fake money where my real mouth is.

Let's start with something simple and get cute once that's done.

R7)

$10 W/P: 3 = $20

$2 exacta box 3 with 4,5,6,7 = $16
$3 exacta box 3 with 5,7 = $12

.50 tri 3 with 5,7 with 4,5,6,7 = $3
.50 tri 5,7 with 3 with 4,5,6,7 = $3
$1 tri 5,7 with 4,5,6,7 with 3 = $6

.50 super 3,5,7 / 3,5,7 / 3,4,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7 = $18
.20 super 3,5,7 / 3,5,7 / 3,4,5,6,7 / ALL = $18

:bang: :bang: :bang:

I think now I'm actually glad that I didn't go down because I'd be SICK about missing second by a neck and the win by a length after getting shut down at the start with a horse that was 35-1 by the time it ran. :faint:

How friggin' close could I have gotten to coming back with piles of cash there if he gets away better or just has about two jumps more worth of finish to him?

Oy.

As it is, I structured the supers way too fast under pressure and didn't throw up the one more I needed to catch the dimer a couple of times, but at least I had the good sense to post the $1 trifecta ticket with the key horse in third as a saver. Small miracles.

So...

I end up only getting back the $190.30 for the $1 trifecta... :bang: ... and it cost $96 to do it... leaving me with $94.30 fake dollars to take home instead of the 9,430 fake dollars I deserve... :D

$272 even now... damn it... THAT was the one to catch for the money...

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 06:53 PM

For the eighth, the exacta looked reasonable when I looked not that long ago, so I'm just gonna watch with a simple $10 exacta box of my two pick 10 and 11 for a $20 ticket.

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 07:24 PM

Oops a little too late to make a play for the ninth and don't really like the race much anyway. Lost my $20 in the last and am down to $252 for the day.

So, I'll just play a $6 exacta box of my two pick 5 horses, 3 and 4, for the hell of it and $10 win/place on the 3 to make it a full card of practice plays for the day.

Current balance +$220.

johnhannibalsmith

10-05-2013, 07:31 PM

...
So, I'll just play a $6 exacta box of my two pick 5 horses, 3 and 4, for the hell of it and $10 win/place on the 3 ...

Picked the wrong one for the bet, the four upsets at 5-1 and the 3 is up the track.

I'm going to assume that the pick 5 is hit and that I'm not getting 4 of 5 after missing the 8th and can call it a profitable fake money opening day.

There's a change.

fmhealth

10-05-2013, 09:28 PM

Much like last season, CBY shippers make their presence felt. On day one,

12 starters
5 winners (42%)
ROI +16%

Bottom line. It pays to keep an eye on these MN visitors. If history repeats, they cool off after the first month or so.

Be Well,
fmhealth

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 04:02 PM

Alright, day number two time.

Day one went pretty well considering it was a pretty sorry opening day card, but was able to find a nut here and there trying to make use of the whole wagering menu. It looks like today's card will be more of the same - some pretty bad races with few real opportunities at first glance, so will probably need to rely on some creativity to turn a few fake dollars into a few more.

The day starts off with a pair of pounder trials for GIII BoA Challenge and there's some pretty nice older horses in both legs, including one of the local gems, Block N Tackle in the opener.

Going to have to try to get rolling a bit early because it seems to dry up as the card of only eight races seems to dry out progressively.

Race 1: There's a bit of hometown bias going on here as I side with Block N Tackle as the one that I want to need. I really liked Queens R Blue and thought that she'd be the likely value at post time, but she's out. Expect that Block N Tackle's ultimate competition on the tote will be #5 Mister Michael - and understandably so with his body of work over the career - but taking a skeptical approach to that one off of his last few races where he seems to have been finding trouble or off-form, or possibly the former being a bit of a product of the latter.

The rail horse Valiant Valor is really interesting with one local start at the end of the meet last season and a win in the process, but I honestly would like him a lot more if there was at least one more start against horses that I recognize to form a more concise opinion. Likewise, I really like the 4, Special's Gold as a possible good price that may be a cut below my top pick here, but honest and talented enough that any mishap to that one may give him the opportunity to be the right one by default.

Race 2: In terms of top contenders, I'm really thinking that the 1 Testing the Ice and the 8, French Fury may be all a guy, or gal I guess, needs to get through a multiple race wager. There are a few others that all are good enough with their very best or if they've improved with some age and maturity, but ultimately, the inside-outside looks awfully tough to me.

Race 3: Horrible gaggle of two-year-old breed maidens looks to offer up a pair of standouts, and even still, I don't think that I'd count on both. In other words, I think using the two in multi-race bets gives you all the coverage you probably need, but in contrast, I'd be scared to death to need them to finish first and second because I had played a $200 quinella or something.

Race 4: With the scratch of #1 La Pinot, this race really became pretty wide open I think. Technically an open $12,500 claimer, this is more like a bottom crew. For the love of God, Skye Memo defaults to morning line favorite and this thing was life and death to win a bottom conditioned claimer here last season. Maybe she's just that much better, but I'm not counting on it. I can eliminate one, tepidly.

So...

Starting with the early P4:

R1) .50 P4: 1,4,5,7,9 - 1,8 - 3,5 - 2,3,4,6 = $40
.50 P4 4,5,9 - 1,8 - 3,5 - 2,3,4,6 = $24
$1 P4 9 - 1,8 - 3,5 - 2,3,4,6 = $16

There's $80 into the P4 pool.

R1) $5 exacta box 9 - 4,5 = $20
$3 exacta box 9 - 1,4,5,7 = $24

$4 quinella 9 - 4,5 = $8
$4 quinella 9 - 1,4,5,7 = $16

.50 tri 9 - 1,4,5,6,7 = $10
.50 tri 1,4,5,6,7 - 9 - 1,4,5,6,7 = $10
.50 tri 9 - 4,5 - ALL = $6
.50 tri 4,5 - 9 - ALL = $6
$1 tri box 4,5,9 = $6

.50 super 9 - 4,5 - 1,4,5,6,7 - ALL = $20
.50 super 4,5 - 9 - 1,4,5,6,7 - ALL = $20

WOW... yup, I'm shooting early... and apparently often...

That's a huge $226 into race #1, all over the place, trying to take yesterday's profit and build that cushion in perhaps the best betting race of the card.

Hang me if I'm wrong... :D

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 04:18 PM

DAMN!

A half a nose up and down on the wire cost me cashing everything as the :4: JUUUuuuuussssST missed second from the one. Grrr... That would have been just fantastic. Brutal, but so damn close to having it work out so perfectly and essentially having the overall analysis dang near perfect that I won't cry over it.

9-1-4-2 running order. Stupid big nose on the 1.

Okay, so, we were down $6 after all those plays with $226 in the machine and a voucher of $220 left from yesterday.

We get back only $46.65 for the backup e's and q's and tri's, so that nose was pretty brutal. I'm not seeing a lot of chances to make up for that boner along the way and even with $2 worth of pick 4 still live, even best case scenarios there seem unlikely to get us back to that $220. Hate to call it a bad play because I do think short of actually missing entirely, it just worked out as poorly as possible, but yeah, it may have been a bad play if I look at the pays and guesstimate what could have been.

So, -$6 + $46.65 = +40.65

A hole is starting to form already... :D

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 04:28 PM

6 MTP for race 2 and the :1: is 3-5 and the :8: is 7-1.

I definitely think the uno is the better horse, but if that price holds up on the ocho, that's definitely a good play. Hopefully I can tie up this next mess of a post just as they hit the gate to see if there's a win bet to be made.

As said, I think this is the one's to lose and the eight is the likely beneficiary if he does fail. I know that the exacta and q pools at the moment offer no opportunity to make money on those two, so going to play the bigger verticals and sort of hope that they split.

R2) .50 tri: 1,8 - 1,3,5,6,8 = $12
$1.50 tri 1,8 - 1,8 - 3,5,6 = $18

.50 super 1,8 - 1,3,5,6,8 = $24
.50 super 1,8 - 1,8 - 3,5,6 - ALL = $15
$1.50 super 1,8 - 1,8 - 3,5,6 = $18

0 MTP and the 8 is still 5-1... at that price.. or any better than 4-1, let's toss in the $20 win bet

$20 win 8

So that's $97 in, for a balance of -$56.35

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 04:36 PM

Well that sucked.

The :1: is much the best, the 2 never even left the gate at any point, the 8 broke a little flat footed and needed a couple to recover and get in stride, but didn't matter as the 4 - who I didn't like whatsoever - broke well and chased the winner all the way to the wire.

1-4-8-7

The lone consolation there is that my $20 win bet on the 8 was a conditional cancel as he took even more late action and got below the minimum 9-2.

So, we're stuck $36.35 and got the worst of the two possibilities on the pick 4 ticket. Yup, there's my hole. :D

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 04:58 PM

Pounders are done and I miss them already looking at this pile of turkeys in the 3rd. Criminy.

There's really no way to play this race, but for the sake of attempting full-card coverage...

Just have to suck it up and assume that 3 and 5 run to form and are just better than the others.

The 1 is a FTS and has been getting bet, but I'm not buying it in general and definitely not at an unfair price. The 4 looks like it can't run a step and Dandy Dan is trying to beat them on fitness, which may be enough to land 3rd. The outside horse is the opposite - Super Drew rarely has them fit until they've run ten or twelve times, but they are only going five-eighths and these are soooooooooo bad, that maybe this one is just definitely third best and that alone will overcome being short.

He is pretty well bred- productive mare and vying for longshot status throughout - currently 9-1 along with the 4 for that honor.

So, let's just try:

R3) $5 tri: 3,5 - 3,5 - 6 = $10

Stuck $46.35

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 05:17 PM

That was actually a pretty decent play, but I picked the wrong horse to use in third of the two I had it narrowed to. Drew's was dead short and they ran around in order with Dan Mac's fit enough to barely maintain third. The $1 tri was $19 I believe - somehow - so that could have been a nice roughly 7-1 return on two standouts if I leaned the other way.

It gets really ugly from here in my opinion. With only eight on the card, the pick 5 begins here. From what I've seen, there isn't much betting going on today so far. So, two ways to look at it: Don't play it because the pool size will suck, the field size sucks, and there's no particularly juicy plays in the sequence. Or, keep the ticket reasonable but take your best shot and figure you may be able to scoop a big piece of a small pool if a couple of outsiders warble in somehow.

Well, you know what I have to do... it makes it easy for me to put something up for each race without actually having to play the race if I wish not to. :)

So, without further ado and as an excuse to kick back and watch if nothing catches my eye for the last half of the day:

R4) .50 P5: 2,3,4,6 - 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 2,3,4,5,6,8 - 7 = $84

Still have a few pick 4 tickets to cash here, but we're now stuck $130.35 after that Turf Paradise styled special.

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 05:54 PM

...
Race 4: With the scratch of #1 La Pinot, this race really became pretty wide open I think. Technically an open $12,500 claimer, this is more like a bottom crew. For the love of God, Skye Memo defaults to morning line favorite and this thing was life and death to win a bottom conditioned claimer here last season. Maybe she's just that much better, but I'm not counting on it. I can eliminate one, tepidly.

...

So, this actually couldn't have played out a whole lot better for the last leg of the pick 4 and first of the pick 5.

Skye Memo, who I railed against as a false favorite, loitered at 3-5 for some time before winding up actually as the second choice behind the phony Gracias from Silva.

Skye Memo had no excuse and winds up last of the five, while both Gracias and Jacksonville manage to find just enough trouble into the corner that if they had a shot, they lost it.

The worst mare in the race and the three-year-old essentially have the race to themselves inside the quarter and the three-year-old is just better, winning pretty handily.

Despite the near worst case scenario leading into that leg, the pick 4 returns a pretty healthy $44.10 a copy, of which he have four, for a $176.40 return.

Better yet, for the sake of the pick 5, she probably eliminated a big chunk of the live tickets. I chose between two candidates in both of the races that I singled, so if I selected correctly in those spots, I like my chances.

Previously stuck $130.35, added in $176.40 worth of pick four cashes, has us up $46.05.

Now, for the fifth.

I singled the one in this spot with a narrow nod over the six. I may regret it, and can not believe I need Jake to carry me... but I'm going to double down on that assessment and see if I can pad the bank a little here with that belief.

R5) $1.50 super 1 - 6 - ALL - ALL = $18
$1 super 1 - ALL - 6 - ALL = $12

Up $16.05 now. Go #1.

johnhannibalsmith

10-06-2013, 08:52 PM

You know it's a scintillating card when I sleep through the last half.

Looks like every race I picked between two to find a single, my single ran second and the other horse won. That's more like it.

When's closing day?

maclr11

10-07-2013, 01:10 PM

Totally got busy yesterday
Personally I'm a Gracias fan cuz I think she's a real cool mare and all I ever here is how much Janine loves her. I think she worked her a bunch.
She looked so sore yesterday though coming through the wire. I guarantee you Silva drops her in and she might be awfully tough, but he also probably will not cool her out.

Going to take a look at todays card here for an hour and will be back to start it off for 2:30 CST post time.

fmhealth

10-07-2013, 01:49 PM

A few thoughts for Monday.

1st race-- #3 Party Like Charlie-- As we all know, Fales is the "King of the Qtrs". He's particularly potent when he trains & owns his entry (2-2 so far this meet). I'll go with him in the first at what should be and underlaid price but hopefully some value in the double.

2nd race--#3 Barbaric---Bourdieu takes a Lund runner over a Fales entry (different owner). I'll follow the jock.

3rd race---1 entry. Schnell is 2-2 this meet with his CBY shippers. Very short price but I'll play in the doubles with the 1,2,3,5, if there's any value.

8th race---#5 Got Heem. Henson shipper from HST. His first entry ran a game 4th yesterday.

Hopefully, there's a winner or two embedded in the above.

Be Well,
fmhealth

raybo

10-07-2013, 03:19 PM

Ok, I'm probably going to embarrass myself, but I'll post my new EPP+PFV ranked horses for today's card at TuP. This rating is brand new, created specifically for TuP, as it appears to work pretty well. "EPP" means "Early Pace Picture" projections to the 2nd call. "PFV" is my "PowerFormVelocities" projections for the race. So, EPP rankings are combined with PFV rankings to get the EPP+PFV rankings. these horses are listed in ranked order from left to right. Big deal right? :lol:

I'm posting these a bit early and using the scratches that are available at this time. I will try to adjust the picks with any late scratches, before each race starts, if possible. Also, natural odds will be used to bet the top 3 ranked horses only, for win betting (if at least 3 horses are listed then odds must be 2/1 or higher, 2 horses would be 1/1 or higher, 1 horse would be any odds):

Race 3 - EPP+PFV = 1A 6 3 4
Race 4 - EPP+PFV = 2 4 1 5 6
Race 5 - EPP+PFV = 6 1 2 4 5
Race 6 - EPP+PFV = 2 4 1 5 6
Race 7 - EPP+PFV = 6 2 3 4 8
Race 8 - EPP+PFV = 2 4 3 7 5
Race 9 - EPP+PFV = 3 8 2 1A 1

Good luck!!

maclr11

10-07-2013, 03:34 PM

raybo

10-07-2013, 03:42 PM

Fales is good but not that good
Should have realized that a 3YO Filly is not gonna beat older boys
Im gonna guess she didn't really have another spot
News Prince logical horse but I passed the race

Good to see Raybo taking a shot at what could be a very sneaky good betting card

Thanks! Just hoping for some of those big payouts to hit. Winners can be pretty chalky here, on individual cards, but meet long there are good average payouts. You just have to get your share of those big payouts to make a profit long term. At least that has been my experience at TuP. I've just about decided that running styles don't mean a lot here, which is unusual for any track, but that is what my Black Box program was designed around (plus pace pressure of course). Strange track!

maclr11

10-07-2013, 03:59 PM

Looking quickly at the second I like Seventy East and think 870 hits him like a tee
First Time John is fast as all hell too though so I'm gonna concentrate on those two.

$0.50 Super 1,6/1,6,7/1,3,4,6,7/1,3,4,6,7 $12
$1 tri 1,6/1,6,7/1,2,3,4,5,6,7 $20
$10 WP 6 $20
$5 Ex 1,6/1,3,6,7 $30

Spent $82 on the race

Reminder there is a 2k carryover in Pick 5 starting in R5

maclr11

10-07-2013, 04:07 PM

Ugh I hate that
Dumb moment
Don't have the all in the fourth spot in the super
Seventy East runs third and he just didn't have enough
Got the trick and a $5 ex but the WP and the super was where the money was
Exactor return $30.50
Triactor returns $22.80

53.30 and I wagered 82
meaning I'm down 29 for the day through one race

raybo

10-07-2013, 04:20 PM

Looks like I will only have 1 bet in the 3rd, the 3. Gotta get 2/1 or higher to bet any of my picks. I really think it's going to be 1A or 6, but can't take their low odds on multiple win bets.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 04:32 PM

Looking at the odds board
I got to take a small shot at the nice exactor 6/1 that was $14 a second ago
$10 Ex 6/1

raybo

10-07-2013, 04:34 PM

Odds on the 6 as they load are 5/2 so I have 2 bets, 6 and 3.

Dang, the odds dropped after my bet to 8/5 and the 6 was about to make a big run on the rail, it appeared, but couldn't get through and had to back off. 1A won by a few lengths. Lost 2 bets.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 04:37 PM

Schnell and Scotty Stevens crush and we both are made to feel shamed for trying to beat the 1/2 shot.
Moving on to the portion of the card that actually is playable.

raybo

10-07-2013, 04:40 PM

Schnell and Scotty Stevens crush and we both are made to feel shamed for trying to beat the 1/2 shot.
Moving on to the portion of the card that actually is playable.

Did you see the attempted move by the 6? It looked like he had a full head of steam built up but had to put o the brakes when the 1A pinched him on the rail. Too bad, he looked full of run before he was pulled back. Don't know why he moved to the rail in the stretch, he was already outside the 1A and had a clear track in front. ?????

raybo

10-07-2013, 04:42 PM

Well, after seeing the replay, maybe the 6 wasn't full of run, it appeared that the 1A did not pinch him back, he just didn't have the steam left. The 1A won it fair and square!

Finished just like my rankings said it would, 1A 6 3 4.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 04:44 PM

It looked like maybe he needed to switch leads or try to get on the best part of the track
Weird move certainly, but no impact on results of the race

raybo

10-07-2013, 04:46 PM

It looked like maybe he needed to switch leads or try to get on the best part of the track
Weird move certainly, but no impact on results of the race

Yeah, it was a bit strange. Oh well, a straight $1 trifecta would have gotten a whole $4.10 - :lol:

raybo

10-07-2013, 04:49 PM

Somebody likes my top rank in the 4th, the 2. 9/2 M/L and at 7/5 early. Hope it doesn't stay that way! Picks are 2 4 1 at 2/1 odds or higher.

6 is M/L fav, but I don't see anything to suggest those odds. Must be connections or some esoteric pedigree, 3rd in class is all I see. :confused:

maclr11

10-07-2013, 04:58 PM

I like the 2,4
6 is a bit of a guess I'd guess
1 is a filly
3 is a plodder that im familiar with
The 5 Higgs might get a piece though

$10 Ex Box 2,4 $20
$3 Ex 2,4/5,6 $12
$1 Tri 2,4/2,4/ALL $8
$1 Tri 2,4/2,4,5,6/2,4,5,6 $12
$0.5 Super 2,4/2,4,6/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,2,3,4,5,6 $24

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:01 PM

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:05 PM

Looks like my 3 picks might hold up on odds.

Yeah they did. 3 bets.

finish: 2 6 4 1 - 6 had something I didn't see, that's for sure. Oh well, didn't lose any money on it, but didn't make much either, $0.40 :lol:

maclr11

10-07-2013, 05:13 PM

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:16 PM

Get $40.50 for the EX
$34.85 for the Tri and I didn't have any superfecta wagering in the race since I found out after I posted that I couldn't bet it.

Moving on to the 5th and the Pick 5

$0.50 P5

1,3,5,6/1,2,3,7/6/2,3,4,7/1,7 $64

Nice Ex and Tri! Well done!! These short fields sure let you spread, cheap, in the verticals. You made about $15 on that race. You got part of that $29 back!

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:21 PM

Race 5 - 6 1 2 are my top 3, 2/1 min again. Quite a bit of speed in this one. Should be a pretty hot pace. I have 4 "E" horses in this one. The 1 is a "S" or a "P" with some early points also. Might be about anybody.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 05:27 PM

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:32 PM

They should fly early here, but I don't think the closers are good enough to get there.
I really think Silva, Lund or Tino wins the race but I don't know which one so I will pass the race in everything but the Pick 5

Hmmm - that don't look good for me. :(

Class looks like 6 2 1 3 5 4, on my ratings.
Distance preference looks like 1 6 3 5 4 2.
Pace at the 2nd call looks like 6 2 5 1 4.

6 seems to be the consensus, huh?

lamboguy

10-07-2013, 05:33 PM

the pools this year are empty as hell in Turf Paradise. last year they were doing $40k win pools. people must have tapped out there.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 05:36 PM

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:37 PM

the pools this year are empty as hell in Turf Paradise. last year they were doing $40k win pools. people must have tapped out there.

I wouldn't doubt that! It's a tough track to make a profit at, on win betting anyway. Maybe the exotics would do better. Lots of chalk many days.

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:39 PM

Its early in the meet, fields are short the handle was down early last year too I believe
Wait till all the horses are there, the big meets have closed and then maybe check it out.

As for the race Diodoro at 4/1 stops late to get caught by the favorite
I hate that, as the 3 would have been a good start for the Pick 5, but oh well
I'm alive I guess

Yeah, I couldn't bet the 6 due to odds, so 2 bets, 2 losses. :ThmbDown:

Finish: 6 3 1

My rankings are doing fine but there's no money there yet. Hope that changes!

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:42 PM

Race 6 - 2 4 1 - 2/1 or higher odds.

Again, the 7 is ML fav and I don't see much there, 3rd in class???

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:50 PM

If the prices don't improve quick I will probably leave you guys and go work on my '75 Cad Coupe Deville, been putting that off for too long.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 05:51 PM

The price problem is the grind at Turf Paradise, once a card there is always a big priced winner but its just finding it most of the time that's the issue

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 05:56 PM

what about the :3:?

raybo

10-07-2013, 05:57 PM

what about the :3:?

What about the 1 or the 4? :lol:

The 3 certainly needed that layoff though. He was at the bottom of his form cycle in his last race. Maybe 2nd race off a layoff but not this one, not for me anyway.

7 has me stymied. :confused:

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:02 PM

2 bets, 1 and 4, and hoping!!

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 06:04 PM

$ burned...as usual.....:bang:

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:06 PM

Well my top pick won easily at odds too low to bet, sucks! Think my 4 got 3rd at 14/1 though. The 7 got 2nd just like the other low priced horse earlier that I didn't see a thing on him.

Finish 2 7 4 5 - Maybe I ought to just bet my top pick only, at least I'd be a bit ahead now. :lol:

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:09 PM

I'll stick it out one more race I suppose. Race 7 - 6 2 3 at 2/1 or higher.

My top pick is 4 for 4 so far, but could only bet 1 of them, due to odds. Not too shabby for a new ranking method.

maclr11

10-07-2013, 06:17 PM

The other problem is the races are all super short and they tend to be more predictable
I'm waiting for the turf which is one of the best places to make money

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:26 PM

The other problem is the races are all super short and they tend to be more predictable
I'm waiting for the turf which is one of the best places to make money

I agree! I would switch to my class ratings for turf probably.

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:30 PM

2 bets - 2 and 3

maclr11

10-07-2013, 06:33 PM

Oh did the 2 ever get goofy around the turn
WHat a high headed bastard
Put your head down and run, geez

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:34 PM

Finish - 6 2 5 4 another top pick winner that couldn't be bet. :mad:

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:36 PM

Oh did the 2 ever get goofy around the turn
WHat a high headed bastard
Put your head down and run, geez

he was wide open, no way he could hold on with that pace. The jockey quit just before the wire and almost gave up 2nd. :lol:

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:38 PM

Well heck! Might as well stick around to see if my top pick goes undefeated today. Not worth any money but would verify my ratings a little.

Race 8 - 2 4 3

The 7's sire's sire is Giant's Causeway, that pedigree has beaten me a few times.

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 06:44 PM

:3::2::7::4::5:

raybo

10-07-2013, 06:49 PM

Might actually get to bet my top pick! :jump:

Watch it lose now. :bang:

maclr11

10-07-2013, 06:50 PM

I wasn't sure what to do with this race but here's the thing apply should not be 6:5 but he is dropping and Robertino is ready to lose him
Lots of speed in race maybe it sets up for Henson
Take a small shot
$0.50 super 5,7/2,4,5,7/2,3,4,5,7/1,2,3,4,5,7 $27
$1 tri 5,7/2,4,5,7/1,2,3,4,5,7 $24
$0.10 super 2,4/2,4,5,7/1,2,3,4,5,7/1,2,3,4,5,7 $7.20

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 07:01 PM

:bang::bang::bang: nice super hit :)

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:02 PM

Finish 4 7 3 2 My top pick didn't win but at least I finally won another bet, with the 4. 3 min odds bets in that one. $9.40 payout, that's better!

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:05 PM

thaskalos

10-07-2013, 07:17 PM

$40 for $27 and $8 for $7.20, congrats! Too bad you didn't follow through with the Tri on the win line. :(
Where is the $40 for the $27?

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:17 PM

OOps, just found an error in my rating formula. Race 9 rankings should be 2 1A 1 4 6. So top 3 would be 2 1A/1 4.

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:20 PM

Where is the $40 for the $27?

he bet $27 on a $.50 ticket so he gets half the $80 $1 payout.

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 07:22 PM

I would check his wagers again.....;)

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:27 PM

I would check his wagers again.....;)

Did he not post a $27 ticket cost on a $0.50 super that paid $80 for $1? Doesn't he get half of that $1 payout since he only bet a $0.50 ticket? Maybe I'm going crazy, I don't know.

$0.50 super 5,7/2,4,5,7/2,3,4,5,7/1,2,3,4,5,7 $27

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 07:28 PM

He did but he did not have the winner on that ticket...

Firster :8: gets the last...horrible day :mad:

maclr11

10-07-2013, 07:30 PM

I love that firster from a nobody trainer with a nobody rider and no works wins to cap off the day
Nice, that's fantastic.....
Typical turf paradise

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:30 PM

He did but he did not have the winner on that ticket...

Firster :8: gets the last...horrible day :mad:

Ahhh - I am going crazy. My bad! OOh, that sucks for him.

MarkMare

10-07-2013, 07:32 PM

Agreed......tough one

GL with your future bets all.....I need a drink :faint:

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:32 PM

Finish - 8 7 6 - wtf? :bang:

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:33 PM

Anybody have that one?

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:34 PM

Agreed......tough one

GL with your future bets all.....I need a drink :faint:

Me too and it's not even New Years Eve yet. That sucks! :lol:

raybo

10-07-2013, 07:35 PM

Later guys! Maybe better prices next time. :)

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 03:18 AM

Glad to see Raybo join the fray!

And Mark Mare!

I got bored and actually wasted $30 in gas to watch those snails in person hoping I'd have an epiphany when I saw something in person.

That went well. :lol:

Busted bad in the first two trying to get cute and then either broke even or lost a few beans in each of my next few plays. Got mad when Bridges won the sixth on that POS, reached the highlight of the day when I helped saddle the winner of the next, then promptly left before I could get a chance to root for Daryl Alvey to get about the third win in the last half-dozen years in the finale.

The only good thing is that there were fewer people in my way gambling in the grandstand than there were here in the TuP thread. :lol:

raybo

10-08-2013, 02:18 PM

That explains why you weren't posting yesterday! Hope you at least enjoyed your day at the track.

I'll post my picks for today, in a bit. Hopefully we can get something other than bet down favorites in the winner's circle today!

From my experiences at TuP, the track looks to be very honest (at least on dirt anyway), in smallish fields with a superior horse running, that horse almost always wins. This is not true at some of the other tracks.

raybo

10-08-2013, 02:54 PM

Today, I'm going to play only my top 2 ranked horses at 1/1 or higher. The low payouts just won't cover more than 2 win bets. Again, "EPP+PFV" is a combination of early pace to 2nd call and a Power/Form/Velocity metric. This composite metric was created specifically for this TuP thread, based on my observations from manually testing individual races at TuP. I have not tested the composite metric at any other tracks but might turn out to be decently predictive of the winner at some of those also. This metric has not been released to my other RS Black Box clients. I will include it in the next release, only if it has value at other tracks.

Picks are listed in "ranked" order, left to right:

Race 3 - EPP+PFV = 1 3 4 6 5
Race 4 - EPP+PFV = 1 2 4 6 3 5
Race 5 - EPP+PFV = 4 3 1 2 6
Race 6 - EPP+PFV = 3 4 6 1 5 7
Race 7 - EPP+PFV = 1 7 2 3 5 6 4
Race 8 - EPP+PFV = 7 8 5 6 4 2
Race 9 - EPP+PFV = 5 8 6 4 7 1

Good Luck!!

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 03:19 PM

Alright, just taking a look at the first half of this beautiful card with 7 TB races - down to a pair of sevens, a pair of fives, and three sixes. Egads, if this is opening weekend... and it took two days to put together a Wednesday card... and were all out on double entries yesterday to even fill both days and will likely be a record setting two days of scratches... bad sign for the first third of the meet.

Anyway...

I sort of like the early pick four sequence, assuming that since it is Tuesday, there is some actual money in the pools. I think a few of the races have an absolute standout - but the nature of the race makes it possible that the best horse may not be the winner - and thinking maybe with some actual pool size today, a construct of several varieties to the ticket with some wager size weight to try and "hedge" to normalize an expectation of 3-1 or better on the investment regardless of outcome may be possible.

Race 1: Really shitty 870 looks like a two horse race for top honors. :2: Feature Mr. Jac looks legit off his NM form an past TuP races when a little younger, but does lack a local hook race. :4: Jess Perfect Miracle is a little cheaper, but has some good local hook races from last season and have to believe that the vacation was a good thing for him as he had a few problems and probably grew up a little.

Race 2: I like this race and it will probably be my undoing. You have a few of the local QH training heros in here - notably John Allred and Matt Fales - but it looks to me like they are bringing some weak ammo to this fight. The rail filly looks like she can run a bit and of those that have started, appears much better to me. But, some of these FTS are impossible to just dismiss. Obviously the tote board may lend some insight, but for the sake of a pick four, I don't think you can omit any of them. I really like that the 2 is 10-1 M/L as I love the connections and likewise the 3 at 8-1, hailing from one of the most impotent barns in the state, but thinking that may be a red herring with an owner that usually has a few good ones. If the uno doesn't crush, this could be a wide open race.

Race 3: I absolutely love :1: Forestry's Delight. She really should mop up in here if she runs like she did in her two starts last year, but this race is four and a half -- which means, you don't have to be best -- and with a pair of five-eighths works leading in and the rail draw, you have to wonder if she's setup to run big in a spot like this.

I've always taken a dim view of A Drop Dead Diva - even though I think she can run a bunch - she's a weird filly that doesn't like to be ridden hard and hates the stick. So, in a way, this may be an ideal spot for her as she may just run right over the top of the others in here without having to be used. I always thought she'd either be happiest going very short or very long, either coasting up front for much of the race or just mowing over the top of stopping rivals. Really a tough race to get into as a betting race for a lot of those reasons, but for the sake of making a few pick 4 tickets, I sort of like it.

Race 4: Yet again, a race where it seems as though one in particular - in this case :2: Eleadora - is just a much better mare than the others. She got hot down here last year, destroying cheap conditioned fillies and then just kept it up against a variety pack of decent local fillies and mares all meet long. She's the one that if you HAD to single, seems like the one to me. But, if we are going to play a few constructs, it's also a race where if she does make one mistake and gets herself beaten, I have to think having almost anyone else at this point in the sequence means you will be rewarded.

I'll have to go back to see where I am in the running tally, but for now, I'll just throw out the pick 4 plays.

R1) .50 P4:

2,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6 = $42 (the big one)
2,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 1,3,4,5,6 - 2 = $35
2,4 - 1,2 - 1,3,4,5,6 - 1,2,3,4,5,6 = $30
2,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 1,3,4 - 2 = $21

$1 P4

2,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 1,3 - 2 = $28
2,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 -1 - 2 =$14
2,4 - 1,2 - 1,3,4 - 2 = $12

$3 P4

2,4 - 1,2 - 1,3 - 2 = $12

$5 P4

2,4 -1,2 - 1 -2 = $20

$12 P4

2,4 - 1 - 1- 2 = $24

That's $238 worth of tickets. This will either be brutal and a horrible attempt at parsing out the sequence into various outcomes - or we have a pretty darn good chance of hopefully getting at worst even money and up to 5-1 or even better depending on the pool size.

It's been a while since I came at it like this and should have spend a bit more time really considering my expected probabilities and will pays, but I'm trying to get it down fast and hoping I'm in the ballpark with my estimates using this unconventional tactic.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 03:41 PM

Criminy... Invested that much and thought the first was an absolute gimme and the 4 blows the turn (guess a longer vacation is in order) and the 2 is ALL OUT to beat the friggin pinto down the lane. Unreal... either a very bad sign or a good one. :lol:

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 04:02 PM

Looks like 5 is taking action... figured.

.50 super

1,2,5 - 1,2,5 - ALL - ALL

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 04:13 PM

Well, the two didn't seem to know what was going on and lost all chance early and the five didn't fare a lot better, but really only the one and seven did any running at all. The seven can run quite a bit if the one is legit (sort of hard to tell) since they were basically all alone. When that one gets to a real distance for real racehorses, unless she's in super tough, you have to think that she won't stay a maiden for very long.

So, we blew $30 there and fired off a massive $238 in the pick four - $268 in thus far through two and only had a meager $16.05 in the bank. So, we're officially stuck $251.95.

But, we do have on pick four covered already and the possibility to cash a $25 ticket depending on how the rest rolls in. Obviously no big bombs in the first half, but other than a worst case scenario, we may be in decent shape.

raybo

10-08-2013, 04:19 PM

Looks like 5 is taking action... figured.

.50 super

1,2,5 - 1,2,5 - ALL - ALL

What PPs are you using for those 1/4 horse races? My data files don't even show 1/4 horse races. Not that I would ever bet them but just wondering.

raybo

10-08-2013, 04:20 PM

Race 3 - Alw 16300nw2 4.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 1 3 4 6 5

They're betting the heck out of the 6, I guess because she's an E7. My velocities say she can't get the lead.

My top pick, the 1, is now under 1/1 and a no bet, figures! The 3 will be my only bet, although the 1 is my pick to win this one.

OOps the 1 just went to 1/1 so betting the 1 and 3

raybo

10-08-2013, 04:40 PM

Race 3 finish order: 1 3 4 6

2 bets for $4 based on $2 bet size - paid $4.60 (up $0.60)
$1 Exacta paid - $5.10 (hit it cold, did not bet)
$1 Trifecta paid $12.10 (hit it cold, did not bet)
No super but hit it cold too

raybo

10-08-2013, 04:41 PM

Race 4 - Clm 5000 6.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 1 2 4 6 3 5

raybo

10-08-2013, 04:59 PM

1 and 2 are actually tied in my ratings but 2 has the class edge, but was ranked 2nd due to post position being outside the 1. The 2 may be the horse here.

Looks like the 2 will be under 1/1 so 1 will be my only bet unless that changes before they load.

yeah the 2 is under 1/1. 1 is my bet at 9/5.

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:11 PM

Race 4 finish order: 1 2 6 3

1 win bet, on the 1 @ $2 paid $4.80 - (profit $2.80)
$1 Exacta paid $4.70 (hit it cold, didn't bet)
$1 Double paid $6.00 (hit it cold, didn't bet)

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:13 PM

Race 5 - Alw 13600nw1 5.50f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 4 3 1 2 6

2 is the class horse here (2 1 3 4 6 class ranking order)
4 won't get the lead but has a strong turn and decent stretch run (ranked 1st (by a margin) and 1st (barely) in those 2 fractional segments). Let's see if we can beat the class!

Dang! Somebody is betting my 4 strong. That needs to stop - this isn't fair! :lol:

May not be able to bet the 4, as it is hovering around 1/1, may have to single the 3.

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:30 PM

Ok I got the 4 at 6/5 now, and the 3 at double digits. 2 bets.

Dang! I thought the 4 went out way too fast, and took the easy lead, and won anyway by a few lengths.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 05:31 PM

Fantastic. I get the absolute worst case scenario with $25 worth to the odds-on favorite but still live tickets to the others as my pick breaks well behind the field and is in a drive from the five-eighths to the eighth just to get into contention and of course, can't sustain and winds up second to the second choice... BRUTAL

So, I end up getting a whole $1 pick 4 instead. Ugh. I really thought I had a very good chance of collecting pretty nicely there, but really, the winner did run better than I expected even if the runner-up cost herself the race... and my cash.

So... wow... forty something back. Have to go add all that up here in a bit.

Race 5 - I don't really care for this race... think they are all below average for the level, but of the three I think are real contenders, I lean to Claypool.

For kicks: $20 tri 4 -1,2

Try to take that horrible consolation prize for running second and scratch it out.

lamboguy

10-08-2013, 05:34 PM

good call in the 5th, i thought i had the value with the 2 but Scott Stevens seems to get on the right horses there.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 05:37 PM

What PPs are you using for those 1/4 horse races? My data files don't even show 1/4 horse races. Not that I would ever bet them but just wondering.

Actually, the vast majority of my "data" is very simply a product of charts that I compile and make lengthy notes on each race for most horses. I have binders and binders and notebooks and notebooks of charts and notes and now it is basically mess and I have become increasingly inconsistent about keeping it maintained. I do from to time use the basics when there is an outside horse, but I became so skeptical of the TuP and YAV commercial PPs when I first moved here that I basically just stopped using them except for the purposes of making a morning line or some other function.

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:39 PM

Race 5 finish: 4 2 1 6

We beat the top and 2nd ranked class horses pretty easily, as they finished 2nd and 3rd respectively.

2 bets @ $4 paid $5.00 ($1.00 profit)
$1 Double paid $14.80 (hit it cold, didn't bet)
$1 Pick 3 paid $22.60 (hit it cold, didn't bet)

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 05:41 PM

...For kicks: $20 tri 4 -1,2

Try to take that horrible consolation prize for running second and scratch it out.

The tri paid better than I expected at $11.60 for a buck.

I was stuck $251.95, was rewarded for my good fortune with the 4th leg of the P4 with $42.40, putting me at negative $209.55. That trifecta was worth $232 somehow, meaning... I'm back at $22.45 to the good, right about where I started the day. :lol:

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:43 PM

Actually, the vast majority of my "data" is very simply a product of charts that I compile and make lengthy notes on each race for most horses. I have binders and binders and notebooks and notebooks of charts and notes and now it is basically mess and I have become increasingly inconsistent about keeping it maintained. I do from to time use the basics when there is an outside horse, but I became so skeptical of the TuP and YAV commercial PPs when I first moved here that I basically just stopped using them except for the purposes of making a morning line or some other function.

Ok, thanks! Nice Tri in the 5th by the way! The 2 class horses had me worried when the 4 went out so fast, but that stong turn and stretch run came in handy and he held on nicely.

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:45 PM

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:57 PM

Dang, right after I posted that last post the odds on the 4 dropped like a rock! Maybe I ought to keep my mouth shut until gate time, huh? :lol:

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 05:59 PM

Race 6 - Clm 3500 6.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 3 4 6 1 5 7

Class >> 6 4 5 7 3 1 The 6 is top class but will have to improve its form quite a bit to win this one. She was at a 7- in form in last race, out of a possible 8, being the worst form possible. The "-" means declining in form. The 6 did not take a break either which makes her even more suspect, IMO anyway.

This is the sort of race that always kills me for the reasons I outlined above as what my approach has evolved into over the years.

Almost every obvious contender in the field showing up from elsewhere, mostly off of a poor race, and with some reason to think they were sold due to rapidly declining form or maybe physical condition. So many lines to read between - and while it's generally easy to default to a guy like Silva since he usually does very well with these acquisitions, he did get his from Miyadi, so whatever "move up" may be in the cards almost has to rely solely on the change in circuits rather than because of the barn change.

In his favor, the others that are in the same barn aren't exactly moving to what I consider elite barns with this type of move. Don't get me wrong, Sandi and Dan Morgan pull this move off regularly and do well, but the prices are just all so horrible and I can't assume that all will fire, that I'm sort of handcuffed by how to even approach the race.

For that reason - it's probably a pass - but that's no fun, so I'm taking a shot with :3: Penngrove as the key since she has been moving the right way on the tote - now at 9-2.

She did run a few good races here and one in particular for $10k against a pretty solid bunch of fillies that day and had trouble that probably cost here a placing. She has been way off form since leaving TuP, but from a simple perspective of finding the fair price in the bunch and having something of contender if I have to play, she pretty much has to be it.

R6) $10W, $20P #3 = $30

$3 exacta box 3 - 4,5,6 = $24
$3 Q 3-4,5,6 = $12
1 tri 3 -4,5,6 = $6
1 tri 4,5,6 - 3 - 4,5,6 = $12
.50 tri 3 - 4,5,6 - ALL = $6
.50 tri 4,5,6 - 3 - ALL = $^

raybo

10-08-2013, 05:59 PM

2bets, 3 and 4.

Well crap! Both my horses were battling for the lead early, which screwed the 4's chances of going wire to wire, but I got the winner at good odds anyway with my top pick. That 5, the one that had the strong finish, showed it, closing fast and getting by my 2nd pick close to the wire.

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:07 PM

Race 6 finish: 3 5 4 7

2 win bets @ $4 paid $18.80 ($14.80 profit)
$1 Double paid $33.00 (hit it cold, didn't bet)
$1 Pick 3 paid $83.80 (hit it cold, didn't bet)
No Pick 4 but would have hit that cold too.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 06:11 PM

...

R6) $10W, $20P #3 = $30

$3 exacta box 3 - 4,5,6 = $24
$3 Q 3-4,5,6 = $12
1 tri 3 -4,5,6 = $6
1 tri 4,5,6 - 3 - 4,5,6 = $12
.50 tri 3 - 4,5,6 - ALL = $6
.50 tri 4,5,6 - 3 - ALL = $^

Well, that worked out well. All the shippers did in fact suck and the best of what was left ran like she did last season, which was good enough.

I spent $96...

The win returned $94.00, the place $76.00, the exactas $130.20, the Qs $67.20, the tris $168.30.

If my math is right, that sums up to $535.70 minus the $96 spent is $439.70 plus the $22.45 we had means the balance stands at $462.15.

Damn 2 horse in race 4. :lol:

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:12 PM

This is the sort of race that always kills me for the reasons I outlined above as what my approach has evolved into over the years.

Almost every obvious contender in the field showing up from elsewhere, mostly off of a poor race, and with some reason to think they were sold due to rapidly declining form or maybe physical condition. So many lines to read between - and while it's generally easy to default to a guy like Silva since he usually does very well with these acquisitions, he did get his from Miyadi, so whatever "move up" may be in the cards almost has to rely solely on the change in circuits rather than because of the barn change.

In his favor, the others that are in the same barn aren't exactly moving to what I consider elite barns with this type of move. Don't get me wrong, Sandi and Dan Morgan pull this move off regularly and do well, but the prices are just all so horrible and I can't assume that all will fire, that I'm sort of handcuffed by how to even approach the race.

For that reason - it's probably a pass - but that's no fun, so I'm taking a shot with :3: Penngrove as the key since she has been moving the right way on the tote - now at 9-2.

She did run a few good races here and one in particular for $10k against a pretty solid bunch of fillies that day and had trouble that probably cost here a placing. She has been way off form since leaving TuP, but from a simple perspective of finding the fair price in the bunch and having something of contender if I have to play, she pretty much has to be it.

R6) $10W, $20P #3 = $30

$3 exacta box 3 - 4,5,6 = $24
$3 Q 3-4,5,6 = $12
1 tri 3 -4,5,6 = $6
1 tri 4,5,6 - 3 - 4,5,6 = $12
.50 tri 3 - 4,5,6 - ALL = $6
.50 tri 4,5,6 - 3 - ALL = $^

Congrats! Looks like you did well with most of your bets! The 3 was the key, most didn't have him to win. Just shows you, don't let the tote affect your picks! I only use it to determine whether or not to bet my picks, if they are below the tote then I pass, if even to or higher than the tote I bet. Simple stuff.

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:14 PM

Well, that worked out well. All the shippers did in fact suck and the best of what was left ran like she did last season, which was good enough.

I spent $96...

The win returned $94.00, the place $76.00, the exactas $130.20, the Qs $67.20, the tris $168.30.

If my math is right, that sums up to $535.70 minus the $96 spent is $439.70 plus the $22.45 we had means the balance stands at $462.15.

Damn 2 horse in race 4. :lol:

Very nice!! I should have been betting every double, and pick 3 since the 3rd race. Maybe you need to think hard about those 1/4 horse races - :eek:

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:16 PM

Race 7 - Clm 3000 5.00f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 1 7 2 3 5 6

Class >> 5 7 6 4 1 2 (Top class, the 5, is a "6-" on form with no rest, so suspect for the win, IMO. The 7, on the other hand is a "3+" so on the improve with room to go. Not a bad pick, if the odds are good enough to bet it!)

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:25 PM

Race 7 will be 2 win bets, 1 and 7, both well above 1/1. Would love to see another double digit payout to go along with the last race! Now watch the 5, in poor form, spoil it!! :bang:

Need a speed duel here!!!!

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 06:27 PM

As if I don't go overboard betting against Metz whenever possible as it is... here has a 6-5 favorite that it appears that he bought after it won... right after a DNF... took to Pomona to run near the bottom there and showed NOTHING as the favorite, now here to run with the career bottom sprint filly crowd.

I can't throw this horse out fast enough. It could win of course, but this is such an auto-toss for me at almost any price that at this price, even though I hate everyone else, I almost have to play.

So many bad options, but for the sake of a definitive key type, though I hate to count on the rider - I'm interested in :4: Break The Record as a new face for Charlie Essex.

I'm going to dance around needing her, but will stab a bit in her direction primarily.

$10 W/P 4 = $20

$2 exacta box 4 - 1,2,3,6,7 = $20

.50 tri 3,4 - 1,2,3,4,6,7 = $20
.50 tri 1,2,3,4,6,7 - 3,4 - 1,2,3,4,6,7 = $20

.10 super 3,4 - 1,2,3,4,6,7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 = $20
.10 super 1,2,3,4,6,7 - 3,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 = $20

That's really a bad way to play this race I think. Oh well, just be happy to be right about the 5.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 06:30 PM

Called that one exactly the opposite of how it finished. I should get some credit for that, right? :lol:

I knew that was definitely the sort of race I need to stay away from.

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:30 PM

Well, I got a speed duel alright, only problem was it involved one of my horses! Pretty much spelled doom for the 1. That dang 5 got well I guess, winning easily from off the pace in the stretch. Oh well, you can't always beat the class!

My 7 got up for 3rd and my 1 got 4th.

Race 7 finish order: 5 2 7 1

No joy!! Lost 2 bets at $4 (Lost $4.00)

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:36 PM

Called that one exactly the opposite of how it finished. I should get some credit for that, right? :lol:

I knew that was definitely the sort of race I need to stay away from.

Well, if it makes you feel better, I thought the same of the 5. Don't know what happened to that horse after its last race, but obviously it came around form-wise. Nice stretch run!! I don't feel too bad though, it took the top class horse to break my win streak!

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:40 PM

Race 8 - Md 5000 4.50f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 7 8 5 6 4

Ought to get this one, hope I get the odds.

Still well up for the day, based on $2 win bets I'm ahead $15.20 after 5 races.

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:53 PM

Win bets 7 and 8
$0.20 super: 7 8 / 7 8 5 / 7 8 5 6 / 7 8 5 6 4 $3.20

Well, the one horse I didn't have velocities for, the 2, won the race. Lost all.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 06:54 PM

This is another race I really have no strong feeling on other than a few red flags that steer me away from almost each and every one, so it comes down to price, I suppose and that would land me in the vicinity of :7: Mr. Oopha at 6-1 presently. Don't think I'd settle for much less than that, but hey...

$20 W/P #7 = $40

$3 exacta box 7 - 5,6,8 = $18

I lost $120 last time and have $58 into this, so I'm at $404.15 I think.

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 06:59 PM

This is another race I really have no strong feeling on other than a few red flags that steer me away from almost each and every one, so it comes down to price...

I guess... :D

Holy Crap. You have Monica Ortega and Leonardo di Espinardo running one-two and leaving Justin Evans, Miguel Silva, and co. in their dust... and you aren't at Rillito... that is one BAD pile of crap all assembled in the same place. Friggin' comedy, really.

raybo

10-08-2013, 06:59 PM

Race 8 finish: 2 4 6 5

Lost $7.60

raybo

10-08-2013, 07:00 PM

I guess... :D

Holy Crap. You have Monica Ortega and Leonardo di Espinardo running one-two and leaving Justin Evans, Miguel Silva, and co. in their dust... and you aren't at Rillito... that is one BAD pile of crap all assembled in the same place. Friggin' comedy, really.

Yeah, my top 2 were nowhere to be found! Happens, after all it is still a horse race! :lol:

raybo

10-08-2013, 07:03 PM

Race 9 - Clm 3000 6.00f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 5 8 6 4 7 1 (5 and 8 are tied in my ratings with the 5 getting the top spot, being the top class horse here.)

The 5 will be under 1/1, I'm assuming, so one win bet on the 8 @ $2, and a $0.10 superfecta with 5 / 8 6 4 / 8 6 4 7 / 8 6 4 7 1 @ $2.70

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 07:21 PM

Heir Joe basically towers over most of this field with his better races from here last season, but it just seems like he isn't the same horse unless he hated Minnesota. Slam Slew was a horse that you just learned to almost hate last season as one of the "bad" Silva horses. Gone Digital is usually good for some nice efforts showing good speed, but he seems better here routing and looks like he tailed off in Washington. So Gone isn't bad, but Morales in the ninth is a dicey proposition - either bet it all or just toss him. Flying Jack - no thanks.

I guess I'm stuck by default almost forced to load up again for the horse in the field that probably has made more starts in the ninth in Turf Paradise than the rest of them combined by a healthy margin - :4: Renegade Cielo. This is really a quintessential Drew horse - you never know what kind of race he'll run from day to day, but when everything goes right and the others just aren't much or don't fire, his old head will still swell up and he'll fire a big shot... well, big enough shot. He's been up there near 10-1 and in this field, I guess that's about good enough for me to roll the dice that it's his day and the pace will unravel for him in time.

$20 W/P #4 = $40

$10 exacta box 4,5 = $20

.50 tri 4 - ALL = $10
.50 tri ALL -4 - ALL = $10

.50 super 4,5 - 4,5 - ALL - ALL = $12
.50 super 4,5 - ALL - 4,5 - ALL = $12

That puts me at a nice even $300.15 after today if I blow the third in a row here.

raybo

10-08-2013, 07:25 PM

Think I hit the super!

Nope the 7 edged out the 6 at the wire for 2nd. Thought I had it for sure. Oh well it wouldn't have paid anything either way.

Lost $4.70

raybo

10-08-2013, 07:32 PM

Well, after a great start I ended up winning only a couple of bucks for the day. better than losing, huh?

Next time ya'll, enjoyed it!!

johnhannibalsmith

10-08-2013, 07:33 PM

Well, after a great start I ended up winning only a couple of bucks for the day. better than losing, huh?

Next time ya'll, enjoyed it!!

Yeah, I knew my best shot was in the first half. That was an ugly card overall and it just got progressively worse. Hard to work with that... but glad you are stopping by and playing along... for better or for worse. :D

maclr11

10-09-2013, 02:51 AM

Looks like you Guys had fun today
With your hating of Metz what are you gonna do with ez kitty in the princess of palms Saturday

raybo

10-09-2013, 01:52 PM

I just modified one of my auto-testable methods in the RS program so I could test my EPP+PFV rankings. I used the "1stAndLast" method and just changed the rankings from that to EPP+PFV. This method passes all races that have at least 20% of the field with no qualified velocities to work with, so it doesn't play every race, just those that get by that "pass/play" rule.

Here is what the rankings did in the 1st 4 cards at TuP so far. Clearly the top pick is the one to play, at any odds, which I will use for today's card. So, one pick/one bet per race today.

The first shot shows all the races played by the method and the picks' payouts. The second shot shows the "summary report" showing each of the 3 top ranked picks, their total win, place, and show payout, high, low, average, and median payouts, as well as hit rates and $2 ROI. Looks like the method has some promise!

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 02:31 PM

...
With your hating of Metz what are you gonna do with ez kitty in the princess of palms Saturday

:D I don't think I'd say that I hate Metz, but I hate using his horses and love to bêt against whenever possible.

Unfortunately, I do love EZ Kitty in general and think this is when she runs best - traditional sprint distance with a lot of pace in front of her - but between coming back to TuP in a different barn and the fact that I do think this is a pretty good bunch, I would definitely not look to her as a winner at a probable fairly short price.

Obviously, Jaws N Paws has always been super tough here and should be again. If the price was better than the M/L, I'd be willing to give AZ-bred Tribal Gal a shot too. I thought her race at Del Mar a couple back was huge and the first time she really showed me that she is pretty legit and more than just a really good AZ-bred that can hang with decent claimers elsewhere.

At a likely huge price, if she stays in, I'd actually also probably try to find an excuse to include another AZ-bred, the cheapie Hindu Kush in an underneath role. Obviously could run dead last, but she's just a super honest filly and it looks like she should get a chance to come try to pick up some of the pieces and depending on who lays down late and how badly, she's not incapable of just staggering into the exotics at a big price.

raybo

10-09-2013, 02:50 PM

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 03:16 PM

Okay, another weak looking card to attack, and unfortunately, I really can't find anything in the QH race to love and hope I can use it to get off to a good start in general and hopefully, a pick four specifically.

Race 1: 2yo. maiden pounders going the classic can't run distance of two-feeeefty. The rail filly, a New Mexico bred with three outs at Los Al almost has to get the endorsement just by default. The others really don't shine in any apparent capacity an can't imagine that any would have much business in a field at Los Al. With that said, I went back and watched her races there and I wasn't exactly blown away by any of those performances. She seems like an honest filly that basically knows what she's doing and it seems probable that even if that's all she is, it may very well be enough in here. Still, the price should reflect that and I'm going to guess that beating her as part of the pick four would be a huge advantage towards making a buck in that pool. I'll probably try to hedge a little since I don't think it will take a monster performance from one of our "big fishes" to get the win and I'm not sure that those "big fishes" themselves are exactly bringing any guns to this knife fight.

Race 2: Bottom non-two fillies going four and a half, was carded with six, and is now down to just four. Cool Toddy was 8-5 on the M/L before the scratches and have to guess that her running lines make her a strong favorite, but really, she doesn't look all that fast from the gate. Come to think of it, three of the four don't look very fast from the gate. Meanwhile, even though I don't think a lot of her, Key Affair has been pretty fast from the gate here in the past AND she gets the benefit of the outside draw. I can't put much faith at all into this ticket (what else is new) because of her, because I think I have to try to beat the favorite and play the proven speed at the distance and just single this filly here and live with it.

Race 3: Bottom non-winners since fillies and mares and a pretty evenly matched bunch that bring a litany of plusses and minuses, allowing a case to be made for and a case to be made against just about each and every one. Even though she's a personal favorite and I tend to use her at a big price to my benefit at some point in the meet, I'm going with the premise that Shemya Reef is probably the only filly that is disproportionately unlikely to actually win the race. She tends to run the same race time and again, which makes her somewhat unique amongst her friends here, but most of the others are all just better fillies and have to believe that at least one will run a good enough version of their best to outfinish her.

Race 4: Hard to get too far past Arraignment and Clear to Canada for me in this spot, but I do think 3yo. Lewiston is a pretty talented, if even a bit cheap, gelding that may very well be on the improve while most of the others are in the midst of a slow decline overall. Lesson in Deceit (I can't believe that he's already 7yo.) is a pretty talented old knocker and if there was a bunch of stopping pace, I'd be jumping at the chance to take a swing at a price - but I think the race probably works against him. Still, I have to conceded he has enough of a chance, that at the price and likely share of the pool, I have to include him on the big spread just in case rather than try to save a few bucks and regretting it.

So...

R1)

.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 1,2,3,4 = $80
.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 3,4 = $40
.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 3,4 - 3,4 = $16
.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 4 - 1,2,3,4 = $16
$1 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 4 - 3,4 = $16

$.50 P4 1,7 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 1,2,3,4 = $20
$.50 P4 1,7 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 3,4 = $10
$3 P4 1 - 4 - 3,4 - 1,2,3,4 = $24
$4 P4 1 - 4- 3,4 - 3,4 = $16
$2 P4 1,7 - 4 - 4 -3,4 = $8
$3 P4 1 - 4 - 4 - 3,4 = $6

That's $252 in the P4 pool... I sure hope we get pool sizes more in line with Mon./Tue. than Sat./Sun. or I'm screwed even before I have to sweat counting on a no-running cheap AZ-bred in the second.

As far as some straight plays here:

.20 super: 1,7 - 1,6,7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $24
.20 super: 1,7 - 1,7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $12
.50 super 1 - 7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $15
.50 super 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $15
.30 super 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 7 = $9

That's a whooper of $327 straight into the first on this bad card. Do or die from the gitgo.

I'm now at a balance of -26.85... right where I like to be... :lol:

maclr11

10-09-2013, 03:29 PM

What a snaky little sequence to kick off the card

$0.50 Pick 4 time
The first race looks like a dog breakfast to me so on one ticket I will take ALL and another I will go 1,3,6,8 the horses taking money.

The second race again I think Schnell's horse will win but I do not like her one bit and will use the all button on both tickets since it is a 4 horse field.

Third race I'm again going to spread out and use everybody but Manny Figueroa and the Araphoae shipper. Gotta think Tino and Silva are tough on the turnaround but the price of this winner should be good.

Fourth race I was around Lewiston for a week and he and Claypool both didn't impress me. Bad coat, underweight and obviously Claypool is fast to win but a 3yo like this cant beat nice older horses. There is no speed in this race and Val Lund gets her speedy old horse back and its very possible Gatling Gun could be very loose. He may not be the same horse but I will take a shot that Val has turned him around.

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8/1,2,3,4/2,3,4,5/5 $64
1,3,6,8/1,2,3,4/3,4,5/1,4,5,6 $96

$150 Investment and I think the Pick 4 will pay that at least since it is not an easy sequence

As for the first race
$1 Tri 6,8/1,3,6,8/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $36
$0.20 Super 1,3/1,3,6,8/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $36

maclr11

10-09-2013, 03:42 PM

Hit the all button, get the favorite, very typical result

$4.70 on the board, geez

Got the super but didn't pay for the trick
Down 174 ish for the day with the P4 going.

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 03:43 PM

...

As far as some straight plays here:

.20 super: 1,7 - 1,6,7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $24
.20 super: 1,7 - 1,7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $12
.50 super 1 - 7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $15
.50 super 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 7 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $15
.30 super 1 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 7 = $9

...

1-3-2-7

Dang it, the three took a ton of money and looked second best, but had such a bad habit of breaking like crap last year that thought I could beat him in the super and maybe get a big pay right off the bat.

Unfortunately, he broke well for the first time and chased home for second and my longshot :7: could manage only fourth, meaning I got the worst saver there, but it still paid pretty decent at $30.83.

$30.83 x 3 = $92.49 - $26.85 = +$65.64

Gonna call that +$65.60 so my scrap paper used for running a tab doesn't get any messier than it is. :D

I'm stuck NEEDING arguably the worst filly in the second race by virtue of hoping that she will get everything her own way and being too cheap won't matter. I've invested about $250 too much on that premise already, so I'll just sit back and shake my head at myself for the next thirteen minutes.

raybo

10-09-2013, 03:44 PM

Race 2 - Clm 3500 4.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 1 2 6 4

1 to win
1 and 3 in the Double

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 03:48 PM

raybo

10-09-2013, 03:50 PM

Just realized I'm banking on a speed filly that can't run at all winning for abstract reasons and I've got Katie Repp up. Jiminy Christmas, I sure hope all that QH practice for Matt has her better from the gate than she was before her "retirement". :bang:

Yeah, I wondered what you saw in the 4. Not for my money - :lol:

2 is scary, but the 1 is my top and I'm sticking with it. Hope this isn't a "class" day, I'm screwed if it is.

maclr11

10-09-2013, 03:52 PM

No please don't bet jimini Christmas next time out or you will really need to be locked up.
I think that Cool Toddy is gonna be 1,2 but this C A Ordaz looks like hes not the next Stevens

$10 Ex 1,3,4/2 $30
Getting creative!!

maclr11

10-09-2013, 04:01 PM

Wow Don Schnell is unbeatable....
CA Ordaz tried to get that horse stopped like 5 times in a 4 horse field, that was really an ugly ride but was never gonna beat the winner

So start the Pick 4 ALL/ALL and go chalk chalk, Geez

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:01 PM

4 2 3 1 - $3 bet - $3 lost, great start!!

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 04:05 PM

Criminy, my two key horses in the pick 4 - basically singles - win the first two legs and a simple $20 double would have paid $314! :bang:

I knew I should have waited and posted later before the first after checking some will-pays instead of saving that time for a cigarette. :D

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:07 PM

Race 3 - Clm 3000 5.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 3 1 4 5 2 6

3 to win
3 / 5 in the Double (I should be passing the double but what the hey!)

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 04:08 PM

Yeah, I wondered what you saw in the 4. Not for my money - :lol:

...

She's really, really cheap, but when she ran last year, she just looked like the type of filly that had to have everything go her own way to run her very best. It looked like the sort of race where that would happen and really, what I viewed as the main threat just didn't look like she'd get the sort of race flow that she needs to run her best. So basically, the lesser of the two looked likely to run her best, the better looked likely to run a bad race, and I thought the best from the lesser could beat a bad race from the better... I'm sure that was clear as mud... :D

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:11 PM

She's really, really cheap, but when she ran last year, she just looked like the type of filly that had to have everything go her own way to run her very best. It looked like the sort of race where that would happen and really, what I viewed as the main threat just didn't look like she'd get the sort of race flow that she needs to run her best. So basically, the lesser of the two looked likely to run her best, the better looked likely to run a bad race, and I thought the best from the lesser could beat a bad race from the better... I'm sure that was clear as mud... :D

Way too much thought involved for me. Those days are long over. :lol:

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 04:16 PM

...

So start the Pick 4 ALL/ALL and go chalk chalk, Geez

I could be wrong... I was pretty far off in predicting the final odds of the race... but I'm out on a limb speculating that the winner of the second was nowhere near the effective favorite in the pick four. I'm thinking that there had to be about three times as many tickets with the two. Looking at the double pay, I think that may not be too crazy a thought, so you could be in much better shape that it may seem... I hope... :lol:

maclr11

10-09-2013, 04:27 PM

At least I have a heard of them here as well

Hit the last race exactor too
Returned $30.40 for my $30 wager

YAYYY

I took a lil shot at the Pick 6
3,4/4,5/7/3,4/2/7,8 $16

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:29 PM

The bettors can't make up their mind in this one. I gotta beat the top 2 class horses here. :eek:

Ok, I see. This is gonna be one of those days that I should have just rolled over and gone back to sleep! Sheesh!

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 04:29 PM

I still don't like the third very much and in general, the prices are all horrible, but I do think that the price on the :5: has been much too high compared to others. Granted, she's nothing special, but she does sort of float in and out of form and may be giving clues lately that she's headed the right way again. Has some back class and who know, maybe she'll just love it here, so at double digits, I have to take a little shot.

$8 W/P #5 = $16

$2 exacta box 5 -ALL = $20

.50 tri 5/all/all = $10
.50 tri all/5/all = $10

$56... I got $9.60 to burn before I can hit one again... :D

maclr11

10-09-2013, 04:33 PM

Severed Ties seriously.... stops badly at Araphoe all the time now keeps going with pressure from Is This a Secret, ugly.....

I'm out of everything

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:35 PM

1 5 4 2 3 - dead last again! $3 bet - $3 lost.

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:36 PM

Severed Ties seriously.... stops badly at Araphoe all the time now keeps going with pressure from Is This a Secret, ugly.....

I'm out of everything

Strange goins on here today. Maybe it's time to go wash the car. :bang:

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 04:40 PM

Severed Ties seriously.... stops badly at Araphoe all the time now keeps going with pressure from Is This a Secret, ugly.....

I'm out of everything

Yeah, I really did not like her much at all. That outcome pretty well bones my pick 4 as I needed to catch 3,4,5 to have a shot at making any real money. The one may be okay to have, but not okay enough to cover for the fact that I had the others a billion more times than her.

On the plus side, the five ran pretty good to get up for second and the little saver value play was about a little better than an money proposition in the end with two favorites as the bread in her sandwich.

$9.40 x 4 + $29.85 + $36.80 = $104.25 + $9.60 = $113.85

Damn, now I need to not only connect in the fourth but somehow get around $200 out of it to get back to where I started today and don't think I have enough live tickets for that to be overly likely.

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 04:42 PM

Didn't even notice that Arraignment was scratched.

Damn. Now, I'm probably really in trouble with this pick 4.

raybo

10-09-2013, 04:46 PM

Race 4 - Clm 12500 6.50f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 5 4 2 6 1

5 to win (bucking the top 2 class horses again)
5 / 6 in the Double

Not only am I bucking the class, they're betting the heck out of my 10/1 M/L horse! Can't win for losing.

raybo

10-09-2013, 05:04 PM

Dang, the 5 couldn't figure out if it wanted to run in the stretch or stop. Man o man!

1 5 4 2 - $3 bet - $3 lost. Down $9 for the day, so far, and looks like it's going to get worse.

maclr11

10-09-2013, 05:05 PM

Why Bowen is trying to get him to change leads late is beyond me
If he just straightens up and rides I think he's a winner and I make up my losses for the day
Stupid Fu**in Pinheads

raybo

10-09-2013, 05:08 PM

Why Bowen is trying to get him to change leads late is beyond me
If he just straightens up and rides I think he's a winner and I make up my losses for the day
Stupid Fu**in Pinheads

Yeah, looked like as soon as he started running, the jock stopped him, then he'd start to run again, and the jock would stop him, like 4 times in the stretch. What the heck - don't think that jock would ever ride one of my horses.

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 05:12 PM

R1)

.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 1,2,3,4 = $80
.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 3,4 = $40
.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 3,4 - 3,4 = $16
.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 4 - 1,2,3,4 = $16
$1 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 4 - 4 - 3,4 = $16

$.50 P4 1,7 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 1,2,3,4 = $20
$.50 P4 1,7 - 4 - 1,2,3,4,5 - 3,4 = $10
$3 P4 1 - 4 - 3,4 - 1,2,3,4 = $24
$4 P4 1 - 4- 3,4 - 3,4 = $16
$2 P4 1,7 - 4 - 4 -3,4 = $8
$3 P4 1 - 4 - 4 - 3,4 = $6

That's $252 in the P4 pool...

Well, considering I screwed myself a little bit here, the pick four actually paid pretty well to Lesson in Deceit at $236.40 a fifty cent copy. Truthfully, I was lucky to catch at all thanks to a great ride by Scott to take advantage of everyone loping early and put the old horse right into the race and a weak ride by the runner-up. I should have had it at least one more time, but changed a ticket in the lower spread from $1 to .50c to try and stay below $250, which I couldn't do anyway... but oh well...

$236.40 x 2 = $472.80 +$113.85 = +$586.65... so far all my mistakes, at least I'm close to doubling up on the day... with plenty of time left to undo all that...

raybo

10-09-2013, 05:17 PM

Race 5 - Clm 3500 5.00f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 6 7 5 3 1 4

Every ranking method I have, except 1, has the 6 on top, now if this horse doesn't win this race, I give up for the day. This is really getting ridiculous.

6 for the win
6/4 in the Double

raybo

10-09-2013, 05:23 PM

LOL - it's so bad, I just double checked to make sure I imported the right race card! :lol:

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 05:33 PM

Good luck Ray. This is a good example of divergent approaches meeting up and getting good insight, because I've always disliked Mo Rock and once I pitched him due to my own bias, this just looked like such a one-sided affair for :7: Artistic Design that I struggled to even conceive of a play.

But, if you say that Mo Rock charts as well as he does, and I'm a peckerhead that will throw him out, maybe there's a move for me if I stand strongly against him entirely.

$1 super 7 - 1 - ALL - ALL = $20
$1 super 7 - ALL - 1 - ALL = $20
$1 super 7 - 1,2,3 - 1,2,3,5,6 = $36

$586.65 - $76 = $510.65

raybo

10-09-2013, 05:39 PM

7 1 6 4 - Ok, I'm outa here. I'll check the rest of my plays later.

Later guys!

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 05:40 PM

Jeeeziz... was trying to leave Hot Rod Bill of that second super as the only complete toss out and apparently being in a hurry, I ended up pitching Brando by accident which cost me a second super and a decent profit for the race. Oh well. I made it one whole weekend without doing that, so I was due.

$510.65 + $79 = $589.65

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 06:05 PM

Alright, since interest has tapered off for the day... including here in this chair... I did kind of like the possibility of a late pick 3 that tries to beat likely favorite and good old horse Swiss Ski in the eighth.

This race might be a parade for Sandi Gann's horse, but figures to be overbet and is moving tracks, trainers, and all that, so I've got to take a shot at beating him here. The last is, I think, completely wide open. Basically, if I can beat Coloursoftheglen and hopefully Silva's in this spot and Swiss Ski next time, it could be good, and I want to be sure I cash.

R6) .50 p3: 1,2,3,4,5 - 3,4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $40

Also, just a shot here keying one at double digits that might get a good trip with an aggressive early approach and get game returning back to TuP. He isn't much and basically overmatched if most of these fire, but I'm skeptical of a few, so thinking the possible pay justifies a little gamble in here.

.50 tri: 1 -2,3,4,5 = $6
.50 tri: 2,3,4,5 -1 - 2,3,4,5 = $6
.50 tri 2,3,4,5 - 2,3,4,5 - 1 = $6

$2 exacta box 1 -2,3,4,5 = $16
$3 quinella 1 - 2,3,4,5 = $12

That's $86, so to end here on an even amount, lets bet:

$3 win #1

$589.65 - $89 = $500.65

maclr11

10-09-2013, 06:39 PM

No one goes with Royal Game early and he wires the field
Was hoping Haitian Hero and Swiss Ski would run 1-2
would have been a good payday

On to the last

maclr11

10-09-2013, 07:08 PM

So today was definitely considered speed biased in my mind
Needed the front to win for sure

johnhannibalsmith

10-09-2013, 07:34 PM

No one goes with Royal Game early and he wires the field
Was hoping Haitian Hero and Swiss Ski would run 1-2
would have been a good payday

On to the last

I blew that. Thank God the pick 3 came back a little weak considering beaten favorites in the first two and then a bomb in the last. I actually had the Swiss Ski narrowed to the two I used and Royal Game, and when I watched his last, I couldn't come up with a good excuse for the bad race. And if I used that good old horse of Silva's (who I loved) that Assmussen had a few years ago, I had to use Don't Stop Ridin' as well since a) I like the horse b) those two finished nearly together at CBY and c) the latter was likely to be ten times the price for not much good reason. I should have just pumped another $40 into the bet and skipped the other play, but really convinced myself that Royal Game was probably headed the wrong way and there were just too many others that could beat him if he was.

Stupid. :bang:

raybo

10-09-2013, 10:46 PM

October 9 - Betting top pick only (highlighted in bold font), all races that appear to be playable (unless the 3 scratches in race 4 I will not play that race). Will play win in all races except race 4 which is a pass at this time, and all Daily Doubles in races 2,5,6,7 with the top pick only.

This post is pretty early so any late scratches affecting the top pick will cause a bet on the next highest ranked horse.

Race 2 - Clm 3500 4.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 1 2 6 4 - PLAY #1 (finished 4th)
Race 3 - Clm 3000 5.50f Dirt 3 YO & UP F&M >> EPP+PFV = 3 1 4 5 2 6 - PLAY #3 (finished out of the top 4)
Race 4 - Clm 12500 6.50f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 5 4 2 6 1 PASS! (3 is top class but has no qualified velocities) Played the 4 (finished 3rd)
Race 5 - Clm 3500 5.00f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 6 7 5 3 1 4 - PLAY #6 (finished 3rd)
Race 6 - Clm 3000 8.00f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 4 1 3 5 7 6 -PLAY #4 (2 has no velocities but doesn't appear to have what it takes to win anyway) (finished 4th)
Race 7 - Clm 5000 6.00f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 6 2 4 1 3 5 - PLAY #6 (7 has no velocities but no threat to win) (finished 4th)
Race 8 - Clm 8000 5.00f Dirt 3 YO & UPOpen >> EPP+PFV = 5 2 7 4 3 1 - PLAY #5 (finished out of the top 4)

I checked every race, every method I have, and only came up with 1 top ranked winner, and that was in my class method. This was indeed an unusual day, no rhyme or reason that I could find, just one of those very, very bad days. Glad they don't come along too often. EPP+PFV had no top ranked winners today and most were not even in the fight. Bet $23 - lost $23. I could have done better throwing darts at the PPs!

maclr11

10-12-2013, 04:03 PM

Looking for the turn around today

First 2 races are QH

Just gonna play a $0.50 P4

7,8/ALL/2,5,6/2,4,5 $72

raybo

10-12-2013, 04:14 PM

I'm playing Kee, Bel, and DeD today, and posting them on my forum. Doubt I'll get much chance to post any picks at TuP.

Good luck!!

fmhealth

10-13-2013, 10:56 PM

Some factoids that may be actionable on Monday 10/14.

1- When Fales trains & the ownership is C&R Fales he's batting @ 80%(4/5) so far after 6 racing days.

2- When Fales trains & the ownership is NOT C&R Fales he hits 12.5%(1/8).

3- Lorta is hitting at 57%(4/7) with his qtrs.

4- The owner Dabdoub won with both of the above trainers today as he won the 4th, 5th & 6th races.

As fate would have it, all these factors come into play in the first on Monday. Fales goes with a horse that he trains & is owned by C&R Fales. To complicate matters, Lorta has a horse in the same race that is owned by Dabdoub.

Fales will get the lions share of the betting & most likely be underlaid but perhaps they'll be some value in the doubles & pk's. Lorta may be a playable option if you're so inclined. I'm going with both with ALL in the second & Five in the third.

Best of luck & most importantly, be well.

fmhealth

fmhealth

10-15-2013, 12:19 AM

Three in with a shot on Tuesday.

2nd race---#4

3rd race---#7

9th race---#2

Be Well,
fmhealth

maclr11

10-15-2013, 04:43 PM

Finally saw the entries for Monday
1st race going 1000 yards and the big guy draws the rail
Far to reach hits a chambers entry in the nw1x race and mixed intent another local should return to form according to how she's been training
As for today I'm waiting for play hard to win after how much galloping gulch won by , wade had him last year here and he struggled over this strip am it was thought he would improve away from asd and he did
Atras does a great job with being high percentage for a 28 year old kid
Tonight I like Sean s in the fifth
The eigth has a bunch of horses I like in it
Fox in the house, marvilosa marcos, chisneau, an tonight at eleven
So idk who to like there

johnhannibalsmith

10-15-2013, 10:34 PM

Between feeling lousy and the fact that this week's cards have been great to sleep through and catch the replays after-the-fact, I struggle to even find a race or a sequence that I would even want to risk my pretend money on.

But there is one in the entries for Saturday as the second longest shot on the board... at 5-1 M/L :D ... that I definitely think is worth a play this time around. Gonna try to go down tomorrow and get out a bit and return for the first horse that I actually want to play at the meet... but only with my fake cash stash, of course.

maclr11

10-21-2013, 03:30 PM

maclr11

10-21-2013, 03:36 PM

Blind magic in front
That's what we needed to get turf rolling now
Gonna look for some more plays today

raybo

10-21-2013, 03:38 PM

Here we go
Sitting at 3/1 I can't believe it
Toyed with these horses last year
Janine riding gives me a price I think
Down about 300 for the year at turf
Gonna try to get even
$50 win
$20 ex 1/2,3
$20 qu 1/2,3
$10 tri 1/2,3/2,3,6

If you're talking about Race 1, horse #1, your odds went to hell. :lol: An obvious choice though. :ThmbUp:

maclr11

10-21-2013, 03:50 PM

Yes race 1 horse 1
Price got crushed late but I won't complain
THOUGHT he would be 4/5 so 9/5 was a gift still
Win paid 5.90 so $147.50
Exactor paid 19.40 so 194
Quinella paid 10 so 100
Tri paid 18 for a buck so 184
So 600 bucks ish return gets me in the positive for the meet

raybo

10-21-2013, 03:53 PM

Crassius

10-21-2013, 04:36 PM

I spit on this race....

put your cash in a pile and set on fire has a more positive long term expectation

Crassius

10-21-2013, 04:41 PM

I spit on this race....

put your cash in a pile and set on fire has a more positive long term expectation

6 horse field w/ 3/5 Fav who goes off at 2/5 only to be beaten at the wire...

BOYCOTT SUCH CRAP WITH YOUR BETTING DOLLAR

The fools who bet such crap only beget more crap like this

raybo

10-21-2013, 04:43 PM

6 horse field w/ 3/5 Fav who goes off at 2/5 only to be beaten at the wire...

BOYCOTT SUCH CRAP WITH YOUR BETTING DOLLAR

The fools who bet such crap only beget more crap like this

Well, why don't you tell us how you really feel? :lol:

Crassius

10-21-2013, 04:47 PM

Well, why don't you tell us how you really feel? :lol:

Too busy sucking snot out of my sinus to spit on this crap offering to the betting public by Turf Paradise?

maclr11

10-21-2013, 04:59 PM

So your mad a 2/5 shot got beat or what's your issue

maclr11

10-21-2013, 05:02 PM

Northlands and Hastings horse star invading next weekend the fields will go up
As for Brady blue eyes if this race was last year he was an easy favorite
Obviously he had his issues but they got him back to good form
He was a very solid tup claimed in years past
Not sure why your losing your mind

Crassius

10-21-2013, 05:02 PM

NO....

You miss the point...

I passed the race...

Kept my money in my pocket...

Such crap offerings are not worth betting

Fools that bet such crap only beget more crap offerings...

I was trying BEFORE the race to urge bettors to boycott crap offerings like this

maclr11

10-21-2013, 05:04 PM

As for this race
Gonna use silva and Metzs 3 on top
$4 1,3/1,3,4/1,3,4,6,7 $48
$5 ex 1,3/1,3,6 $20

maclr11

10-21-2013, 05:05 PM

It's a horse race
If you liked Brady blue eyes I hope you didn't pass

maclr11

10-21-2013, 05:08 PM

Crummy result
Metz runs 1-2
Doc tab too far out of it to get small piece like I thought he might
Got the exactor but will lose money unless it's $27 which it won't
Oh well moving on to the fifth a wide open alw1

Crassius

10-21-2013, 05:34 PM

7 Horse Field barley worth any attention....

I bet :6: WPS here

Crassius

10-21-2013, 05:44 PM

7 Horse Field barley worth any attention....

I bet :6: WPS here

Top three hoses on paper finish in top three spots of 7 horse barely playable field.

:6: WPS Returns

0.00 3.80 2.40

for a .20 WPS bet profit...

R6 should be boycotted by bettors...

6 betting interests featuring a dominating entry that will probably go off at 3/5....

Turf Paradise has turned unto a full employment socialist shithole for horseman.

Screw them... they get none of my betting dollar when they decide to card such sucker only fields as contained in R6

maclr11

10-21-2013, 06:09 PM

You can keep your opinions like that to yourself
They use what they got
You can't fault people for running a horse in a pot where he's 2/5
The race secretary can't handicap the races and say oh this is competitive
He needs races, and favorites win 33% of the time
Get over it

Crassius

10-21-2013, 06:18 PM

You can keep your opinions like that to yourself

Spoken like a dictator who must repress free speech, lest the truth become known to the dumb masses that keep a few employed at the expense of all

They use what they got
You can't fault people for running a horse in a pot where he's 2/5
The race secretary can't handicap the races and say oh this is competitive

He needs races, ....

so he keeps shoving less and less bettable races down the throat of us bettors, to keep himself and his kind employed.

and favorites win 33% of the time
Get over it

Do you work for Turf Paradise?

Is this thread nothing but a un-paid for promo for Turf Paradise?

maclr11

10-21-2013, 06:20 PM

What would you like to have happen
It's a long meet your going to have some bad fields
It happens everywhere
I do not work for turf paradise in any regard, just a fan cuz it's a beatable track where the locals all go and it's logical unlike some of the other circuits

lamboguy

10-21-2013, 06:28 PM

CBY had a pretty decent meet this year. the horses coming from there should be tough for the next month.

Canterbury was one of few places that had a bigger handle and larger attendance from the prior year.

johnhannibalsmith

10-22-2013, 06:27 PM

:lol:

Some funny stuff I missed yesterday. Especially the part about the thread being a Turf Paradise advertisement... when you consider why I started these threads a few years ago and my overall opinion of the clowns in charge.

Anyway...

Kinda sorta gonna show my true stupidity here - chasing a filly in the finale that I vowed to never chase again... but she's been off all summer and she needed it - so this may be the one shot to catch her at a square price in a horrible field if she remotely returns to close to her best form.

I'm leaning towards a pick three swoop shot here. I think both the two lead-in races are pretty tough - it appears that the Birddogg here may be a bit of a good thing at a bad price, so we'll cover that one a couple of times.

R7 .50 pick 3: ALL - ALL - 8 = $36
$1 pick 3: 4 - ALL - 8 = $9

$45 in so far... fake money of course

johnhannibalsmith

10-22-2013, 07:22 PM

...R7 .50 pick 3: ALL - ALL - 8 = $36
$1 pick 3: 4 - ALL - 8 = $9

$45 in so far... fake money of course

Looks like the will-pays are worth almost exactly what the tote price is offering... so don't feel obligated to pump more into the win pool and be at the mercy of late money one way or the other. 12-1 or thereabouts is more than fair on this one.

But, I really think this is a bad bunch. 2-1 on Provincial Native... I mean yeah, she's got at least as good a shot as anyone... but man, that's a terrible price. 2-1 on Fantasyville? Yeah, she's probably the best mare in the race, but her last against a similar field was sooooo bad that I'm not sure how you could swallow that sort of price. And those are the highlights on the talent front...

So, the appended wager here will be a bit of a double-down of my goofy win selection - with the added flavor of the reality that I could see ANYONE running anywhere in this field ... Shemya Reef could knock some socks off for criminy's sake...

R9: .50 tri 8-ALL-ALL = $15

So that's an even $60 bananas on this Leo Di Espo nag. But, I like this nag. This is her only shot to show me something or she is forever banished to the "Never Again" list.

Quagmire

10-22-2013, 07:27 PM

summersquall

10-22-2013, 07:33 PM

Good pick!

johnhannibalsmith

10-22-2013, 07:35 PM

fmhealth

10-22-2013, 08:40 PM

GREAT PICK Mr. Smith!!! You're the king of TUP.

Keep an eye on ASD shippers. They're 3 winners out of 5 starters the last few days.

Be Well,
fmhealth

raybo

10-22-2013, 09:38 PM

:8: :3: :2:

Good for the Golden Lioness... and Leo Di Espinardo... I really like that filly... makes me smile to see her come back with a good race.

So...

The P3 was worth $182.80 each half buck, so $546.60 there. The tri was solid at $148.75 for a half buck - which kicks us up to $695.35 cashed and $635.35 in total profit.

I think that runs the total up for the meet to $1136.00 in the right side of the ledger.

Good thing I still can only play with fake money here in Arizona. I'd hate to be running real money into the purse fund... :lol:

Again, very nice job! :ThmbUp: Unlike you, I don't track individual horses, the vast majority of the time I don't know the names of any of the horses I play, usually only in the big races like the TC and BC series. I only look at the last 10 races and all my data comes from those, except for horses' overall stats listed in my PPs. I like the fact that you take a stand with a single horse in the picks, I also do that with the supers, most of the time singling a horse on the win line. So, we both live or die with a single horse most of the time. The good part of that is that the ticket costs are much lower than having multiple horses in each position. So, when you hit a good one all your previous losses are wiped from the balance sheet. My superfecta play has revolved around an 8% hit rate since I started playing them back in 2004, so I have no problem waiting for the big payouts to produce my profits, and have been around 45% ROI, consistently year in year out, since 2004 (took a year off in 2005-6 to get over all the stress I incurred playing full time with no other income in 2004, never again will I play full time without a steady income paying the bills! I'm retired now, so I am back to full time, but under vastly different circumstances.). Recently (last 2 years), I have added win betting to my overall method, which produces steady cash flow in support of the super play. It's a great way to leverage money!

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 03:17 PM

It's 30MTP for the opener and still no changes posted, but I'm getting sleepy and sort of like the early part of today's card if it stays intact.

The first is a collection of some of the world's worst pounder maidens ever assembled. Half of these couldn't even qualify for the career maiden stakes last year. Really, the better of the two Allred starters - :8: La Deja Blue - looks like the only one with literally any upside and the potential to have a career that involves more than one career win. The pinto is always interesting, but he'll get bet be default, so the next most interesting runner to me is the rail draw :1: Cumpas Pride. He's run just once in a trial a few weeks ago and took some action and showed NOTHING. May not be much, but kinda have to think he's better than that... and really, even just an improvement of a quarter second off the debut may put him in the mix with these snails.

Second race interests me mainly because of the M/L favorite - Key Affair. This is a filly that I caught a pick four early in the meet as what seemed like an unlikely single - but she was literally the only real speed in a field that scratched down to four and he had everything, literally everything, her way in that spot. Unless we have scratches here, I just don't see this race running that way and expect her to look like a completely different, cheaper filly than the one that ran a couple weeks back. She could definitely repeat, but this is just a great spot to assume she runs headlong into adversity and fails with fairly heavy support.

Third is an allowance non-two for bottom claimers that want to run for four times the money. Really, there isn't much in here. But I think you can make a case for the three outside fillies and likewise, it's pretty easy to take a confident stand against the three inside fillies.

The fourth looks like a mess to me. The M/L favorite ran a decent race, but nobody in this field can run all that much. I started thinking that I'd just avoid the race and hence, the pick four, but at second blush, I think I'll just look at this as one of those races that could easily make the pick four worth playing just by covering in lieu of a real opinion. Take advantage of those that may have an opinion, I suppose. It just looks like a mess.

So...

R1) $5 P3: 8 - 3,5 - 4,5,6 = $30
R1) .50 P4: 8 - 3,5 - 4,5,6 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 = $21

R1) $1 tri: 8 - 1 - ALL = $7
R1) $1 tri: 8 - ALL - 1 = $7

R1) $8 exacta 8-1 = $8
R1) $8 quin 1-8 = $8

That's a swing of $81 beans, taking the balance down to $1055.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 03:29 PM

Getting close to post time for the first today, I'll be here all day since I am writing an essay for school.

Race 1
Quarter Horses in a wide open field
The 8 is a little overbet at the moment
I think the 10 should get a piece and will make a play with him along with 1,3,5,6

$1 Tri 10/1,3,5,6,8/1,3,5,6,8 $20
$0.50 Tri 1,3,5,6,8/10/1,3,5,6,8 $10
$0.50 Tri 1,3,5,6,8/10/1,3,5,6,8 $10
$3 Pick 4 8,10/3/1,2,4,6/3,6 $48
$1 Pick 4 1,3,5,6,8,10/3/1,2,4,6/3,6 $48
$0.50 Pick 4 1,3,5,6,8,10/3/1,2,4,6/3,6,7 $42
$10 WP 10 $20

Spent $60 on Race 1 and $138 on the Pick 4 with the key in the second leg on every ticket. Might be a little crazy, but I think she's going to be much the best.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 03:30 PM

I shared the opinion on Key's Affair who will be way overbet and she had everything her own way that day.

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 03:32 PM

I can't believe that action that the 5yo. former YAV loser is taking here... I know she has a nice work, but come on... surely they can't love her THAT much? :confused:

maclr11

10-23-2013, 03:36 PM

$1 Tri 10/1,3,5,6,8/1,3,5,6,8 $20
$0.50 Tri 1,3,5,6,8/10/1,3,5,6,8 $10
$0.50 Tri 1,3,5,6,8/10/1,3,5,6,8 $10
$3 Pick 4 8,10/3/1,2,4,6/3,6 $48
$1 Pick 4 1,3,5,6,8,10/3/1,2,4,6/3,6 $48
$0.50 Pick 4 1,3,5,6,8,10/3/1,2,4,6/3,6,7 $42
$10 WP 10 $20
.

Well 12/1 to kick off the Pick 4 is good, but It did cost me a bunch to get there and I had zip on the race 1 wagers. Not the best start, but maybe if we get past this race the Pick 4 will pay off.
The 8 ducked in a bit and the 10 just showed no run, in what really was not the best bunch.

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 03:36 PM

:bang: :bang:

Uggghhhh....

The ocho breaks about a length behind the field and is running over horses late to get beat about that far. The uno leads the whole way and gets run over at the wire by the FTS... It was hard not to like a FTS at least a little here as a non-proven loser, but both the uno and ocho looked to have more going for them than that particular FTS...

Still probably a spot I should have had something at least... ouch.

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 03:57 PM

Alright... well that sucked... leaves me not sure how to proceed with the remainder of the first half. I guess on a Wednesday I can see the last three legs of the pick 4 become a pick 3 and still have the possibility of a return somewhere between acceptable and solid.

So...

R2) .50 P3: 3,5 - 4,5,6 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 = $21

Then, as of 10MTP, the 3-5 exacta is at about 5-1 and the 5-3 ex at 6-1... that seems pretty good, but I do wish these fancy new 1994 graphics would show the Q will-pays nearly as often since they do actually offer the wager.

Okay, at 5 MTP the Q is about 3-1. That's not bad.

$8 exacta box 3-5 = $16
$10 Q 3-5 = $10

$1 tri 3,5- 3,5 - ALL = $8

That knocks me back down to an even grand in the black in case you thought there was actually some sound logic for the wager amounts.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 04:01 PM

Keyed so heavily to the 3 here it's hard to take more action on her
But at 2/1 I think she is a great price.

$10 Ex 3/1,5
$6 Tri 3/4,5/1,4,5
Thinking that somebody will come late for second as the four will tire but wanted tri just in case.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 04:05 PM

Seriously get run down late by that
At first look I thought Fales was just not aggressive enough to make lead and then she gets caught late.
I want to think that if Carreno or Franco rides that filly she wins, but that's just my take.
Should have had something like the Quinella, but I'm an idiot, so moving on to the less interesting races the 3rd and 4th.

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:07 PM

Gawd... Super Sassy... I know that was hardly a great field, but how much better is BJ Stivers than Ron Freel to get this mare up for a picture? I thought he'd get a good race from her, but after watching her mope around the ArP surface for the last few years, I figured even her best out of that Nyquil barn and into this one meant she'd top out at the bottom of trifectas and supers against this bunch.

I feel like I've had the right idea in both of the first two and have just failed miserably putting it together. I can shake my head when I have no clue how a race ran, but these types like the first two drive me nuts when I'm on the right track, but take a detour at some point.

precocity

10-23-2013, 04:16 PM

Super Sassy :lol: I am ur father :lol:

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:17 PM

...
I want to think that if Carreno or Franco rides that filly she wins, but that's just my take.
...

I can't disagree. It's fairly amazing that after almost ten years, Robertino finally figured out in the last two years how to lead up much the best and actually not get it beat in Arizona and now he's suddenly more interested in the... ummmm... smaller things in life.

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:21 PM

Super Sassy :lol: I am ur father :lol:

:D

That took me a second...

maclr11

10-23-2013, 04:31 PM

Still don't get it

But I'll move on to the third
Really starting to like the 6 as the closer
Sweet Saturday is such a quitter
Looking for Diodoro, Carreno to team up and get the job done.

Down $186 for the Day

$30 WP on 6

$10 Ex 6/1,4 $20

There's another $80 so this could become an expensive day

Need some more ASD horses to run, that's where all my money's been good.

1/5 is crazy low for this filly. Too low

precocity

10-23-2013, 04:32 PM

:D

That took me a second...

that was a funny race hell she was like 8 lengths behind? then came charging like a freight train.funny her daddy my namesake used to run like that in gr-1-2-3 he was a monster late kicker!

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:33 PM

Well okay, on to race three I guess...

As I posted earlier, don't really like the inside three on the win end much.

What I'm not grasping at the moment is why the four is odds-on and the five is double-digits...

The four almost certainly has a huge pace advantage (no pun...), but she wilts as reliably as she makes the lead. It does appear as though she'll get some pressure, if even token pressure for a half, so I'm not sure how you bet into those odds even if you love her.

Meanwhile, the five really did get good late in the meet last year. I mean, she improved by leaps and bounds in her last few starts. Granted, she was routing, but she's off the shelf here, fresh, and after watching Super Sassy mow down somewhat sticky speed in the last, I can't imagine how I'd take 3-5 and pass on 12-1. I like the six a bit, but her 7-2 can't get me off the five and that price... especially as the lone older in here.

Don't care for the race much at all, but gotta plug along now...

$20 W/P #5 = $40

$4 exacta box 5 - 4,6 = $16
$4 exacta box 4,5 = $8

$1 tri 5 - 2,4,6 = $6
$1 tri 2,4,6 - 5 - 2,4,6 = $6
$1 tri 4,5 - 4,5 - 2,6 = $4

$80

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:38 PM

...
$30 WP on 6

$10 Ex 6/1,4 $20

...

:ThmbUp:

Good call, I should have kept it simple, but figured the six would take a bunch of late money and wanted to shoot for the sky.

The four really is a POS. She couldn't have made an easier lead than that and was all but looking to lay down at the eighth pole. Even her token pressure that missed the start hung on for third.

I don't think we'll see any more allowance wins from that group in the future.

:lol:

maclr11

10-23-2013, 04:39 PM

Hey look
Diodoro uses Franco and Carreno and they run 1-2, what a shock.
Exactor returns 54.00
WP bet returns 129.00

Return of 183 for the race making me only down less than a hundred now.

Movin on up

Reminder of the P5 carryover of 12k

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:41 PM

...

Reminder of the P5 carryover of 12k

Gee thanks... just when I was ready to admit I missed my best shots in the first two and call it a day... :lol:

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 04:49 PM

Man, this is a brutal P5 sequence for a contrarian like me.

I looked at it this morning and stopped at race five, the first leg.

I loathe both Hava Cigar and Bubba Fizz as three life winners at ridiculously short prices when there are good old horses in here that can actually run and have beaten good horses at some point... like Strum Bum and Cirque Du Soleil... but it's one of those damned if you do, damneder if you doesn't scenarios.

I can't find a horse in the sequence that I love in its race and can just single so I can justify going deeper in races like the fifth and ninth where I think you almost have to try to beat the likely favorite(s).

I'll try to muster up something here, but this is going to be one unconfident play for the sake of playing along.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 05:08 PM

I'm skipping the fourth

Taking a large shot at the P5

Gotta use four horses the first leg and hope for a price
So no Chambers or Diodoro hopefully
High Class Cat on the drop could be good enough at 4/1 or so
Wanted to stay alive in the sixth so using the three logical horses, cant see too many other outcomes
I like LA Weekend a lot, but its hard to single him off the layoff
Gotta think King of the Sky needs one, Jamaican Memories is pointing for the AZ bred stake in November
Spanish Jazz has done nothing wrong so far and Borealis Way is in good form
Eighth race I really dislike this whole bunch
How do you not use Porfido though
Teddy the Bear is probably the horse I will end up betting but he is no lock either
Three logical horses in the last leg as well
Makes for an expensive play, but it will pay well since it is wide open
$0.50 Pick 5
1,2,3,6/1,4,5/3,6,7/3,4,8/2,3,5
$162

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 05:21 PM

You probably have a better handle on this sequence than I do.

I had narrowed my ticket down to $320... :D ... that's not gonna work, but I really struggled to find how to chop it in half. I just didn't like anyone enough anywhere.

Race 5: Taking what I think are the two best in on the n4L condition - the two guys you almost have to use even if you don't like the horse. And using what I think are the two most talented older horses in on the since July condition. I couldn't go with one group or the other as much as I wanted to suck it up and just play the trainer angle.

Race 6: Horrible, horrible bunch featuring one of my favorite old horses, Canard, making a scary move to the bottom. Originally used him and what I thought was the best of the rest, the four, but eventually, this was how I cut my ticket in half. My second choice just isn't the good -- he'll probably win if Canard is just completely ruined and this will be a sad race to even watch, but if I have to count on anyone in the sequence... it's gonna be Canard.

Race 7: I liked everyone in the race. I really did. I threw out both of Val Lund's and the good old AZ bred that usually bounces after a big race here for whatever reason.

Race 8: I liked nobody, but wanted to use some of those with good speed in this race. It just looks like a race with the rail out that a couple of horses could shake loose and someone like Porfido could wind up being five lengths best, but wind up getting beat by a premature ejaculation in the turn that lands him fifty wide.

Race 9: Have to try to beat Lester and Chambers and thought there were a couple in here with the chops to get it done with the best race in the arsenal. Realistically, probably could have made this the single if I was on a slimmer fake dollar budget and just wanting to be sure I lasted for four legs and hope the good old horse from the super barn gets it done.

R5) .50 P5: 2,1,6,7 - 1 - 4,5,6,7 - 2,3,4,8 - 1,2,3,5,9 = $160

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

Edited... oops, never even noticed the scratch here to the horse I liked most at probably the best price... guess I'll make a substitution to the roarin' red hot D Wayno Brasher superstar.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 05:38 PM

Bubba Fizz!! Yayy.....

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 05:54 PM

Bubba Fizz!! Yayy.....

Yup. This is why when I looked early I couldn't get past the race.

You were guaranteed to get horrible prices on him and Chambers and neither is a lot of horse. You can't single him at 3-5, but as soon as you spread, you feel like a douche for going deep to catch a 3-5 shot. I hate races like that. And to make it worse, I'd have been smarter to just ignore my scratched pick and take the stupid consolation of Bubba Fizz twice.

maclr11

10-23-2013, 06:10 PM

Masons Pegasus finally goes by late to win
I think he adds a little value in p5 sequence
Now onto the good races

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 06:14 PM

Well, that was fun.

The horse that I chopped to get my ticket to a reasonable price gets up to win over a total POS with good old Canard laboring to try to crack the tri.

I've made nothing but the wrong move of two every time I had a choice to make and paid for it each time.

:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

johnhannibalsmith

10-23-2013, 06:33 PM

I may as well try to work through this funk in a race that I have no business even trying to do it. :D

I'm a Memo To Mya fan. I submit that he's rarely in the right race and this almost certainly isn't the right spot once again.

But, he's 13-1 in this spot and the other horse I was willing to take a shot with at double digits - Skimasco - is actually taking some money. I thought he had a shot to steal away early and lull the better horses into false sense of security in behind, but he'd need to be at least 12-1 for me to be flying that kite.

So, going to just hope that the blue collar Memo To Mya can sit back patiently and hope that the race falls apart in front of him and he can rally up for a piece of the exacta at a big price. It's a shot for the sake of taking one, but I really do think this is a bit of a strange race and he's at least versatile enough to play a few different hands as they are dealt. He's just not as good as most of the others when they run their best.

R7)

.50 tri 5 - ALL - ALL = $15
.50 tri ALL - 5 - ALL = $15

$10 W/P #5 = $20

What's $50 more at this point? :D