Breakage comment

[wiffleball whizz]

Not sure about you guys but when I catch a 7/2 and get $9.80 9.90 I'm the happiest guy in the world but if that horse ticked up to 4/1 and paid $10 flat I'd be crying i got robbed and cursing about everything

Anybody else know what I'm saying?

[NJ Stinks]

Yea, I do. :cool:

[Stillriledup]

Interesting.

I'd prefer they pay out to the penny, i'd personally love to get that breakage, the reasoning they have used in the past doesnt apply in 2013, there are 10 cent supers that pay out to the penny, so, the "holding up the betting"lines argument doesnt fly anymore.

[proximity]

Anybody else know what I'm saying?

if i ever hit a horse that pays that high.... i'll let you know. :)

[precocity]

Not sure about you guys but when I catch a 7/2 and get $9.80 9.90 I'm the happiest guy in the world but if that horse ticked up to 4/1 and paid $10 flat I'd be crying i got robbed and cursing about everything

Anybody else know what I'm saying?

hell if i capp a race and not sure of the tri or super and win and place 5/2 on up im happy! :rolleyes:

[cj]

The problem is most times the horses that pay $9.90 were 6-1 on the backstretch.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Funny how you notice all those and never notice when you pick and/or the winners odds go up.

If you want to argue for fixed odds or for a minute delay before the start of the race -- fine. Moaning about odds going down under the current system is futile.

[Stillriledup]

Funny how you notice all those and never notice when you pick and/or the winners odds go up.

If you want to argue for fixed odds or for a minute delay before the start of the race -- fine. Moaning about odds going down under the current system is futile.

I think that 9 out of 10 times, the odds go down...so, at that rate, we're not going to be jumping for joy when a horse goes up one click and wins.

[Augenj]

Not sure about you guys but when I catch a 7/2 and get $9.80 9.90 I'm the happiest guy in the world but if that horse ticked up to 4/1 and paid $10 flat I'd be crying i got robbed and cursing about everything

Anybody else know what I'm saying?
Yes, I do. Then they pile the breakage on top of the takeout. I wonder what the "true" takeout is over time?

[wiffleball whizz]

The problem is most times the horses that pay $9.90 were 6-1 on the backstretch.

Truer words never spoken

"they" always bang them down late


I really really really hate "they"

[proximity]

i think the crux of your original post is that usually when the horse wins the closing odds are posted by his number as he's going back towards the winner's circle and you're just hoping for the best. if it's 7/2 you know it's at least $9 and if it's 4/1 you know it's at least $10. you're just praying for the $0.80 gravy that's still unknown.

[precocity]

never forget this my namesake offspring was a 5-2 morning line. since he won his last race he went off at a 4-1, I put 175 to win 60 to place and all kinds of super wheels. as he hits the backstretch off the pace rolling for the win he is a 6-5? wtf!!!! think I made about 475 on that race? but you got to look at the value and how much you can really make for the risk?

[cj]

Funny how you notice all those and never notice when you pick and/or the winners odds go up.

If you want to argue for fixed odds or for a minute delay before the start of the race -- fine. Moaning about odds going down under the current system is futile.

I do notice, and I've commented on it before. But I also know that the majority of the time, the odds of the horses on the screen early, particularly those on the lead, go down, not up. I don't think there is money going in late, but I know it is possible there is canceling going on after the break.

[Pensacola Pete]

The reason for breakage (ease of handling money) may not be valid, but the political reason for it (makes the state money) is, and the states aren't going to give that up in these financial times.

[moneyandland]

Yes, I do. Then they pile the breakage on top of the takeout. I wonder what the "true" takeout is over time?


NYRA's takeout is supposed to be 16% on WPS, under net pool pricing if you want to calculate your approximate payout you have to use 25% as a takeout to get what the horses actually pay... I don't have a clue why or how it's fair but it sure seems shady

[precocity]

I do notice, and I've commented on it before. But I also know that the majority of the time, the odds of the horses on the screen early, particularly those on the lead, go down, not up. I don't think there is money going in late, but I know it is possible there is canceling going on after the break.


cool to see you on a vid?

need to act more respectable around here..... :cool:

[Augenj]

NYRA's takeout is supposed to be 16% on WPS, under net pool pricing if you want to calculate your approximate payout you have to use 25% as a takeout to get what the horses actually pay... I don't have a clue why or how it's fair but it sure seems shady
That 25% you stated is pretty much what I've found with six major tracks around the country in computer analysis runs. It's really hard to beat this over time.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Are you okay with ALL betting and canceling ending 30 seconds before the first horse loads?

[cj]

Are you okay with ALL betting and canceling ending 30 seconds before the first horse loads?

Of course. I loved it when it was tried (1 mtp), but tracks didn't.

After the P6 scandal, I have my doubts the system is nearly as secure as people pretend So while I don't think people are betting after the bell, I certainly wouldn't be shocked if it came out that it happens.

I know it has happened before, but I'm not talking about situations where the system malfunctioned.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I would be as well.

[wiffleball whizz]

There betting and canceling after the bell make no mistake about it


Everubody thinks the betting that's going on late is 500s and 1000s.....maybe it's just 40s and 60s and it doesn't even get on the radar...

[Pensacola Pete]

So while I don't think people are betting after the bell, I certainly wouldn't be shocked if it came out that it happens.


It still happens at a few tracks. My tote watching program records the odds until the race is cleared to the next one, so no question about it in my mind that past post bets are being made. Same 3 or 4 tracks. Been doing it for years. Those are tracks I don't play. It's hard enough to win without giving somebody the edge to bet 30 seconds out of the gate.

[RXB]

It still happens at a few tracks. My tote watching program records the odds until the race is cleared to the next one, so no question about it in my mind that past post bets are being made. Same 3 or 4 tracks. Been doing it for years. Those are tracks I don't play. It's hard enough to win without giving somebody the edge to bet 30 seconds out of the gate.

Care to give us the names of these three or four tracks?

[infrontby1]

The late Cary Fotias once stated that in 1999/2000 the stock prices went from fractional eighths (ie. 25 3/8) to decimals rounding to the nearest one hundredth of a dollar.

So why can't in this day in age, can't racetracks have breakages down to the penny if the technology is available to make such calculation?

If you're asking so what? What's the big deal? What if you put $200 on a winning horse that goes off at 7/2 and pays $9.80 but under the penny breakage would now pay $9.99?

That's a $19 dollar difference.

Maybe no big deal if that's your sole wager of the month, but it does begin to add up after making a few hundred wagers through out the course of the year.

I used to get answers from racing wagering boards years ago that it was too much to have tellers have rolls of pennies on hand and would hold up wagering lines? But where does most of the wagering occur nowadays? And do any of your ADWs give you a hard time when attempting to withdrawal $9.99?

[Stillriledup]

Care to give us the names of these three or four tracks?

Or at least hints?

[Stillriledup]

The late Cary Fotias once stated that in 1999/2000 the stock prices went from fractional eighths (ie. 25 3/8) to decimals rounding to the nearest one hundredth of a dollar.

So why can't in this day in age, can't racetracks have breakages down to the penny if the technology is available to make such calculation?

If you're asking so what? What's the big deal? What if you put $200 on a winning horse that goes off at 7/2 and pays $9.80 but under the penny breakage would now pay $9.99?

That's a $19 dollar difference.

Maybe no big deal if that's your sole wager of the month, but it does begin to add up after making a few hundred wagers through out the course of the year.

I used to get answers from racing wagering boards years ago that it was too much to have tellers have rolls of pennies on hand and would hold up wagering lines? But where does most of the wagering occur nowadays? And do any of your ADWs give you a hard time when attempting to withdrawal $9.99?

Almost all track have the evil dime super, so anyone can cash for 7.81 or 22.18 in 2013, there are bets that pay off to the penny. Many people have ADWs, so breakage should go directly into their accounts. Them 'skimming' the breakage has to be some kind of crime, too bad we don't have an angry lawyer sue the industry for all the breakage they've stolen over the years from the customers.

[infrontby1]

You're right Hawk,

The dime super and maybe some 20 cent pik-4's do yield the penny payouts.

[wiffleball whizz]

It still happens at a few tracks. My tote watching program records the odds until the race is cleared to the next one, so no question about it in my mind that past post bets are being made. Same 3 or 4 tracks. Been doing it for years. Those are tracks I don't play. It's hard enough to win without giving somebody the edge to bet 30 seconds out of the gate.


Well what 3 or 4 tracks?!?!? Why not tell us about it?!?!?!??

I see violent odds drops at finger lakes on the flat side

But zero reason not to tell us what tracks are doing this

[Track Collector]

So why can't in this day in age, can't racetracks have breakages down to the penny if the technology is available to make such calculation?

The plain and simple answer is that it is a revenue stream that they do not want to give up.

From a breakage study I did a number of months ago, the estimated average breakage from the WPS pool is:

Win --> 0.85 %
Place --> 1.70%
Show --> 2.55% (excludes consideration of minus pools)

Taking as an example Santa Anita from 09/29/13, the average WPS pools were around $250,000. If one uses a "blended" WPS breakage rate of 1.0%, the breakage revenue alone was $25,000 for the day. Multiply this by the number of race days and even in the business world where numbers are relative, a lot of money is involved. Since the tracks sell their signals to numerous ADWs, they get the breakage benefit of on-track handle only, and it is the ADWs who get the much larger portion of the breakage revenue. (I'm sure tracks recognize this when establishing their signal costs, so in the end, the tracks get back most if not all the "breakage" revenues. :)).

I have never done a breakage study on exotics, but based on knowing that the average exotic wager is HUGE compared to average WPS prices and yet still broken to the same 10 cents or 20 cents most of the time, one would natural expect breakage amounts (and revenue) on exotic wagers to be tiny vs. the WPS numbers indicated above.


Chris

[startngate]

Putting on my old Mutuel Manager's cap (yes, I was one), net breakage normally ran between 0.25% and 0.40% of handle as an average over all pools/tracks/time. Most of the time it's closer to 0.25% than it is to 0.40%. I looked for 0.30% as my over/under number.

While I would have had no problem with tellers having to deal with pennies (issue vouchers for payoffs and just cash them out at the end of the day gets around most of it), in order to break on the penny, customers would have to accept the possibility of negative payouts on winners to make it happen.

If a customer wants to bet $10,000 to show on a horse, then they would have to accept a $9,300.00 payoff if that's what the pool actually calculates to. Asking the tracks to eat the negative breaks while killing any chance at covering them by eliminating the positive breaks is never going to fly. Given the uproar over the recent story over on Paulick Report, I can't see that going over well on the customer side either ... :rolleyes:

And yes, even if you could get the customers to agree, both States and tracks would fight it due to the lost revenue issues. Although I suspect that with the additional churn from customers having more money in their pockets, it might turn out to be a wash over time. Convincing them would be the big challenge.

[ArthurG]

Not a math wizard but wouldn't 25,000 be 10% of 250,000 ?

Just asking, maybe something I don't know.