average place/show prices

[timtam]

Is there any site or location where one can find the average place and show prices according to the odds at each specific track. I usually play the eastern tracks but I was wondering if there was a site which would tell you what the average place/show prices were for winners at 4/1 at Fairgrounds for example.

[Larry Hamilton]

any one of 20 people on this forum could do that on the fly EXCEPT for one thing. When you say "Odds", you certainly mean the odds on the tote board, for instance 4:1. In fact, 4:1 is rounded off on all ODDS between 3.51 and 4.49. The resulting calculation on the actual odds will yeild over 70,000 rows of information.

[Larry Hamilton]

To further complicate this, rounding on the tote board only rounds 4:1 from 4:1 to 4.49. At 4.5 to 4.99, 9:2 is shown!

All the little odds of less than 2 and less than 1 will "disappear".

Frankly, I wouldnt take the task for MONEY!

Have a nice day

[kenwoodallpromos]

I cannot understand what useful information can be gleaned from the result, as average includes a very wide payoff according to whether favorites paid off also. Range for show can be $3.60 down to $2.40 I would guess but that does not help in betting. Maybe you can teach me your reasoning? / You cannot win money by betting to place and/or show based primarily on odds without having a definite range of odds or limit on acceptable odds; and you will still need to have a good system that eliminates almost all losers within those limits; that is why I just go for the highest % of bets paid off and eventually disregarded the estimated payoff price; then I still have general limit on low odds below which I do not bet, (even odds or lower), regardless of evaluated risk. The only way I decide to bet place as oppposed to show is= 7 or more entries, show; 6 or less entries, place. Those horses with odds below my limit that I determine to have minimal risk is a good candidate for my spot win bets.

[timtam]

Ken,
I'm always reading and tinkering with different methods of selecting horses and wagerings and Friday night on the internet I came across a method of sizing up your place and show wagers by the average payoff in accordance with the amount of profit you wish to make. Say you want to make $100 and your average place/show price is 3.20 then you'd bet 166. I understand it isn't an exact science and as Larry Hamilton says it reallys isn't worth the effort but I thought maybe someone could inform me that at Philly Park horses that pay $8.00 to win average 4.20 in the place hole and $3 to show so I'd bet $200 to show if that horse is my selection and I wanted to make $100. Its just an experiment and would do it on paper first but it was a new idea and now I'm investigating it.

[Larry Hamilton]

I didnt say it was worthless, I said it was more difficult than I was willing to undertake.

As to your stated intent. Dont forget what ever you get is an average, which, in a perfectly flat distribution means half your horses are above average and half are below.

Meaning: you could have an average place payoff of 10 bucks, and still get paid 2.10

[ranchwest]

I think you're a lot better off evaluating each race. If you think the favorite is likely to run out of the money, you might get a good payoff on a show ticket. If the favorite does get in, the payoff could be very, very low. On the extreme, look at bridge jumper situations. Your show payoff could range from $2.10 to $45.00 or more.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Are you averaging your ROI for the day or for 1 race? I aim for a certain amout to win each day, but I may win a few in a row and quit after say 3 or 4 races. I expect to make $75.00 to $300.00 profit per day. That is based on my record keeping of usual winning per day when I bet 15-25 races per day. I bet based on consistency, so I keep track of % of bets won and average return for the bet and for the day. I would suggest rather than trying to bet specific horses at certain win odds, you can also try seeing what the payoff would be for certain horses you like if certain other horses came in also. Heavy betting on a favorite that comes in will make any other bet a bad value regardless of odds. Your 4-1 will payoff $2.20 if the fav comes in with 50% of the action! My general rule when I watched the tote was not to bet if any 1 horse have 50% of the betting for place, or 30% for show (or if any 2 horses had more than 50% of the betting for show). But now my payoff frequency is good enough so I just do not bet if I think any even or lower horse will payoff. Most of my picks are even to 5-1, most of the payoffs being about $2.60-$3.20. / If you bet regardless of odds a good rule of thumb to make any profit is 65% payoffs to place, 80% payoffs to show. I do a little better than that! / I made a thread on Show Betting on this forum with my method. / The best thing about place and show betting is that most bettors use them as throw-away bets like across the board! My wild guess is a lot of industry people use place and show to bet on another owner's horse. / In California it is only illegal for a trainer to bet against your own horse to WIN!!

[Memogram]

I find it too hard to bet place/show at smaller tracks, pools change too much

[PSTfredk]

it doesn't make sence to me unless you think that the fav is going to run out of the money.if the second fav gets in it well still be a worthless wager. exception if you love a 10/1 or better horse
a show bet should always be considered and that won't pay a
hell of a lot when the fav gets in the money

[hurrikane]

hmm...they are all seperate pools with no relationship. If you are trying to figure what a 4-1 shot will pay to place it cannot be done. Any number you average will be meaningless.

Just thought I'd throw that out there before you start sending Larry money. :D

[schweitz]

Betting Place and Show:

If you can do this and be profitable; more power to you. I wouldn't be caught dead putting money in the place and show pools.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Before dissing the idea altogether, you would think that many players are successful at playing these pools on a daily basis
- on every circuit. The majority of the total handle accumulated in these pools is probably not from your basic $2 bettor,
but some serious students who've devised a unique plan of attack.

That probably involves the doping out and attacking false and vulnerable favorites, large field sizes, contentious races, etc.

Some will probably use place and show parlays to attain their goal.
I wouldn't readily rule out the potential for long term profits based upon the raw $2.80 payoffs. ;)

[JackS]

Reminds me of a show bet I made on a dog race many years ago. The pools there are very small since almost all money is bet into quinellas, perfectas and tris. I was standing in line at the bet window ready to make a $5 win bet on a dog that was 9/2. At that time they had monitors stationed around the track that kept all informed of money bet into each pool. Total w/p/s pools probably were less than $1000 and as I stood in line, I noticed that $0 dollars had been bet to show on this dog, so I changed my bet from win to show. The dog ran 2nd and payed $4.xx to place and $11.20 to show or about the same price he would have payed to win. I have noticed a few simular situations with horses although not to this degree. Short priced horses with the exact same win odds whose place or show money do not reasonably reflect his corresponding counterpart. If noticed, it can only mean that one of these horse is being overbet in the win pool and underbet in place or show. The danger is that one or more of the well heeled patrons has noticed the same thing which in the last few seconds before the bell could wipe out any overlay you thought you had.

[schweitz]

Originally posted by The_Knight_Sky
Before dissing the idea altogether, you would think that many players are successful at playing these pools on a daily basis
- on every circuit. The majority of the total handle accumulated in these pools is probably not from your basic $2 bettor,
but some serious students who've devised a unique plan of attack.

That probably involves the doping out and attacking false and vulnerable favorites, large field sizes, contentious races, etc.

Some will probably use place and show parlays to attain their goal.
I wouldn't readily rule out the potential for long term profits based upon the raw $2.80 payoffs. ;)

Wasn't dissing--just doesn't work for me---too many unknowns and wrong risk/reward ratio

[andicap]

Don't some people use a system based on ratio of win pool to place/show If much higher than the rest of the field, unusual, etc, means skewed amount of money going to win, probably from insiders.

I would think these days with software like At the Races and other sophisticated mechanisms that overlooked place-show horses would be rare. Agree best way to cash in is when you think favorite will finish third such as a "bounce" candidate or an "E" horse who won't get the lead, or bad PP in two-turn race that starts near the turn. Or horse who has one good figure based on unusual circumstances (biased track, perfect trip, etc.)

All those types can fall out of the money altogether.