Madcap Escapade

[PaceAdvantage]

HOLY CRAP! What a filly!

I know its early, but this one really might deserve the title of "The Next Ruffian"

She just won the 4th race at GP....undefeated after 3 starts

I don't think I've ever seen a racehorse win a race that easily in my entire life. She was absolutely JOGGING through 21 and change, 44 and change, 109 and change, on the way to a 122 4/5 7 furlong win in her 3rd lifetime start.

Unreal.....can't wait for her next race...

[Pace Cap'n]

The only horse all day to live up to their billing.

[PaceAdvantage]

I can't believe nobody else has any comments. I'm still in awe. If anyone out there didn't see her, and can catch the replay, I recommend you do just that.

This filly is a monster....jaw-dropping ease....

I know, I know...five horse field...who did she beat?...etc...etc...

But...she went 21.85, 44.61, 109.26 and 122.97 WITHOUT EVER BEING ASKED....she barely lifted her legs...and ran off to win by over 4 lengths...

In contrast, the Swale (3yo males) went in:

22.18, 44.64, 109.40, 122.87

And this was a contested head to head pace....she JOGGED just as fast as her male counterparts who were BATTLING head to head throughout....

Some scary stuff out there at Gulfstream Saturday.....this is one special filly...

[Buddha]

I didn't get to catch the race, but will see what I can do about seeing the replay. It will be nice to see what they do with her if she is winning this easy.

[Speed Figure]

1C 2C LF SF PWR
Madcap Escapade 103 111 87 104 123.1

Wynn Dot Comma 99 112 88 103 124.5
Race Figures 102 112 88 103

I have the Florida Derby as a very weak race!
1C 2C LF SF PWR
Friends Lake 86 100 90 97 120.8
Race Figures 103 108 82 97

[Pace Cap'n]

I was in awe after her race on Valentine's Day.

What do you suppose Rene Douglas is thinking right now? Hell, Little Bo Peep could ride that filly.

Gotta give Bailey credit though, he did manage to slow her down by 2 ticks at the pace call.

Is it good for the game that any jock that happens to get a good horse will always be looking over their shoulder?

[OTM Al]

It wasn't just not being asked. He had the breaks on her the whole race except for when he let her take the lead. Looks like she may jump to 2 turns in her next according to DRF. For some reason I don't think it will be a problem. Biggest overlay in the Futures wagers. Got her only in both pools for the Oaks. I'm also not much for judging the physical appearence of a horse, but I was telling my girlfriend right before the race one thing to look at was the sheen on the horses coat to tell its health. She seemed to be absolutely glowing. The girls that ran at SA later in the day were good, but not that good.

[The Hawk]

She's an immensely talented filly, obviously with a chance to be special, and Saturday's race was absolutely phenomenal. That said...until she wins around two turns I don't think you can consider 5-1 an overlay when you're talking about a race 6 weeks away at a distance she's never tried.

[PaceAdvantage]

I had no idea until a couple of days ago that she ran a 108 Beyer in her SECOND CAREER START!!!!

A 3yo filly running a 108 Beyer in her second career start.....has this EVER happened????? LOL

[OTM Al]

And remember that 108 is minus 8 for being a filly and minus 8 for her age when she did it. She's quite a horse. And yes, on her I do consider 5-1 an overlay even on a race 6 weeks in the future. I believe she is that good. I simply cannot accept the school of thought of "I can't believe it until she's done x distance or 2 turns". This is not a marginal horse here where such arguements may have more merit. The good ones make the transition. And once they do, you never will get much return on them again. Can't rely on that wait and see til she stretches out attitude to fill the pool anymore.

[Bubbles]

Anyone have the bloodlines on this one? Would really like to see if she was expected to be something at birth or if she is a freak in every sense of the word.

[OTM Al]

Sire was Hennessy, Dam was Sassy Pants by Saratoga Six, who was a son of Alydar. Has a 1.67 Dosage Index with a center at .5, so she looks to be capable of stretching out, pedigree-wise. Here's a great site if you ever have such questions

http://www.pedigreequery.com/

[The Hawk]

I simply cannot accept the school of thought of "I can't believe it until she's done x distance or 2 turns". This is not a marginal horse here where such arguements may have more merit. The good ones make the transition. And once they do, you never will get much return on them again. Can't rely on that wait and see til she stretches out attitude to fill the pool anymore.

I never said I couldn't believe it, nor did I say this is a marginal horse. My argument is from a betting standpoint, not from the standpoint of a fan of the game. As a fan, I was floored. As a bettor: to take a non-refundable 5-1 on a horse who's has never had to respond to a challenge, to win a race over a track she's never set foot on -- a track which is notorious for being different than most other dirt surfaces -- at a distance she's never even approached, six weeks from now, is far from an overlay. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if she won the Oaks, even won it easily. But 5-1 at this stage of the game is not an overlay.

[OTM Al]

I understand your point completely. She's probably set to stretch out at one of the preps in KY at the beginning of April, and we'll see which way the wind blows. I still consider it an overlay in that my estimation of her chance to win, despite all factors you list, is still quite a bit better than 16%. Hence to me its an overlay. (got my round 1 in on her too at around 7-1). Your estimation is different and that's cool. We all did the same thing, this game would be pointless.

[Buddha]

looks like she might go in the ashland against halfbridled.

article at the drf

http://www.drf.com/news/article/54064.html

[The Hawk]

No question Al, there'd be no betting without a difference of opinion. And I hope you cash that ticket, for your sake and because I hope she turns out to be the next star...

[OTM Al]

I'm hoping so. It would be fun to see them go at each other through that and the whole filly "triple crown". Not sure yet what to think about Silent Sighs. I though it would be Hollywood Story that would beat Halfbridled on Saturday. To me the fillies are much more exciting than the boys this year.

[OTM Al]

Me too Hawk. I've managed to be able to watch her run all of her races, by luck or planning. (Besides, it would be nice to be able to cash tickets on Derby Day before the first race goes off.) Its fun for me to be able to follow a few horses' careers from the start. Doing the same with Play All Night out of Mark Hennig's barn. Really liked him after his debut, and still like him a lot even after two missteps against winners. Hennig has shut him down for the spring, so I really look for him to bust out after the Triple Crowners wear down after June.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by OTM Al
I'm hoping so. It would be fun to see them go at each other through that and the whole filly "triple crown". Not sure yet what to think about Silent Sighs. I though it would be Hollywood Story that would beat Halfbridled on Saturday. To me the fillies are much more exciting than the boys this year.

I agree totally. I would not be surprised to see either of the fillies contest a Triple Crown race this year. On the boys side, the horses are just beginning to emerge. Wimbledon, Eurosilver, Birdstone, and St. Averil look very good, but behind them, who do you have? Value Plus, Friends Lake, The Cliffs Edge, Smarty Jones, and Wynn Dot Comma? A few promising horses in there, but not exactly the mark of a legendary foal crop.

[OTM Al]

After Second of June went out, the boys lost a lot for me. Now I'm rooting for Eddington and Smarty Jones. I like Smarty, but don't think he has much of a shot. Likely would burn up with the first wavers with about a furlong to go. Eddington I think can surprise this lot. He's really coming on and may peak at just the right time. I'd love to see one or two of the girls come into the TC. They would likely show well with this crop, but I don't see it happening.

[JackS]

Some consider the girls more mature than the boys early in the year. Some would also say that the girls are at least on a par with the boys early in May. The best horse will probably win the Derby regardless of sex and if it's a filly, maybe even the Preakness. The big problem (if it's a filly) will come in the Belmont.

[Derek2U]

I agree with you 100. If any Filly Beats ANY MALE in a triple crown
race its got to be wire-2-wire. A Type E ... the boyZ luv 2 chase
the smell & hence are at their mercy.

[cj]

Hmmm, a change in plans? Who knows, but interesting nonetheless...

Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com/news/article/54388.html)

[Bubbles]

CJ...

We can hope...

[PaceAdvantage]

If she can get a distance, she certainly deserves a shot against this wide open group.