Odds question

[wiffleball whizz]

I know the wizards of PA can help out here.....

What's the highest odds a post time favorite can be in a 8,9,10,horse race??

With say a 20 percent takeout.......I'm stupid I know....

Just wondering cuz I saw a horse 4/1 at mnr that was the favorite

[Irish Boy]

With a 20% takeout, the highest favorite odds would be 5.4-1 in an eight-horse field, 6.2-1 in a nine-horse field, and 7-1 in a ten-horse field.

[Irish Boy]

Also, every horse in those fields would be the "favorite."

[wiffleball whizz]

With a 20% takeout, the highest favorite odds would be 5.4-1 in an eight-horse field, 6.2-1 in a nine-horse field, and 7-1 in a ten-horse field.

Thank you

[Track Collector]

Hi whizz,

From my JCapper database from 01/01/2011 thru the present, for tracks in the US and Canada, listed below are the highest odds ever held by a post time favorite:

8-Horse Field --> 4.50 to 1 for a horse at Sun Rey Park, 04/21/2013, race#6

9-Horse Field --> 4.60 to 1 for a horse at Arlington Park, 06/17/2011, race#9

10-Horse Field --> 4.90 to 1 for a horse at Sun Rey Park, 05/15/2012, race#4

Sorry, but I did not take the time to look up tracks with 20% Win takeout rates and structure my data query to focus exclusively on those tracks.

In all of the above, none of those post time favorites won their respective races.


Chris

[Track Collector]

Without knowing for sure, I'm wondering if the odds presented by Irish Boy might be the theoretical maximums, whereas the odds I presented reflect the highest experienced in the real world.


...

[therussmeister]

Without knowing for sure, I'm wondering if the odds presented by Irish Boy might be the theoretical maximums, whereas the odds I presented reflect the highest experienced in the real world.


...
Yes, the theoretical maximum would be if all horses had the same amount bet on them, and that's what Irish Boy gave. That's not likely to happen ever in real life.

But I don't know why the question assumed a 20% takeout since I believe only one track has a rate that high on win bets. (Turf Paradise 20.75%)

[Stillriledup]

The amazing thing is that with all the races that have been run since the history of time, there has to have been a race where all the horses were incredibly equal and yet, there always seems to be favorites and longshots. How come we never have a race where the favorite and the longest shot in the race are almost similar prices?

In 9 or 10 horse fields, someone always seems to be 10-1 or higher, no matter how 'equal' the races are drawn

Has a racing secretary never carded a race where the "10th most likely winner" had almost the same chance to win as the "most likely winner"? According to the odds and according to the general public, there has never in history been a race where all the horses were "equal".

[wiffleball whizz]

The amazing thing is that with all the races that have been run since the history of time, there has to have been a race where all the horses were incredibly equal and yet, there always seems to be favorites and longshots. How come we never have a race where the favorite and the longest shot in the race are almost similar prices?

In 9 or 10 horse fields, someone always seems to be 10-1 or higher, no matter how 'equal' the races are drawn

Has a racing secretary never carded a race where the "10th most likely winner" had almost the same chance to win as the "most likely winner"? According to the odds and according to the general public, there has never in history been a race where all the horses were "equal".


If u ever watch a dog board you will see something like this

1 5
2 4
3 8
4 7
5 4
6 9
7 6
8 3

Odds all bunched together