Playable tracks

[MJC922]

Do you believe some tracks are more playable than others? I've always held the belief that while some tracks run a pretty tight ship there are others where chaos seems to be the rule. I recall for example the change that I saw in racing at FL when Doc O'Dea was no longer around. He was probably one of the best people that a race fan could ever have on his or her side. Plenty online about Joseph O'Dea that you can read up on. I believe he wrote a book that was strongly against meds/lasix. RIP 'Doc'.

But back to the tracks -- I ran a query on a profitable method that I'm researching and grouped it by track. Thought I'd share the output from that. I think we can all agree, it takes a lot of effort to beat the take, good numbers, replay watching, getting to know the trainers and riders etc. I'm figuring that it makes sense to concentrate my efforts on a few tracks, develop some local knowledge and steer clear of some of these others.

Here's the list, overall is on the left, overall is top-ranked with no minimum odds critera and then the 'overlay' subset is on the right:

[MJC922]

And then we have the not so good:

[DRIVEWAY]

Are the races evaluated broken down in any way or is this every race every day of the track's meet?

[MJC922]

Are the races evaluated broken down in any way or is this every race every day of the track's meet?

This is every race (well nearly every race, there are a couple of criteria where a play is skipped due to days away or poor trainer), looking at specific tracks I'd hesitate to break it down further just due to the sample sizes. I have broken it down in the past without the track specific grouping. Seasonally anyway I know winter racing is bad for this method, GP and TAM seem to reflect that, turf is stronger than dirt for ROI and non-claiming races are better than claiming etc, things like that.

[Robert Goren]

You have to handicap differently at different levels of competition. You can't handicap PRM the same way you handicap BEL. I know because I have tried. They train differently at those tracks.

[MJC922]

You have to handicap differently at different levels of competition. You can't handicap PRM the same way you handicap BEL. I know because I have tried. They train differently at those tracks.

KEE & SAR were just as profitable as PRM. I handicap them all the same, class is class, speed is speed, should work everywhere if it's solid.

[Dave Schwartz]

If this was not a backfit, then you are about to be a very wealthy man (if you aren't already).

[Robert Goren]

KEE & SAR were just as profitable as PRM. I handicap them all the same, class is class, speed is speed, should work everywhere if it's solid. I don't know how you handicap so I don't know what you use. I am a big believer in current form. WOs are big part of that at SAR, but because they workout horses less at PRM, WOs aren't at PRM. I think trainers also run their horses more often at PRM than they do at SAR. I take that in to account. I am amazed that what works at SAR also works at KEE since KEE has an artificial surface. How does it work on the AQU inner which is my favorite place to bet?

[MJC922]

If this was not a backfit, then you are about to be a very wealthy man (if you aren't already).

LOL. Yeah that would be nice but no I'm not quitting my day job. I consider it a backfit in the sense that the plays were based upon the final odds. I have zero confidence that I will actually be able to get those odds using conditional wagers. In real world play I expect a large percentage of the horses I would end up betting at 0 MTP will not even end up as overlays based upon the final odds. There's also considerations around the low win % of the overlays and the amount I could bet into the pools, that will drop the odds making them less profitable too.

[MJC922]

I don't know how you handicap so I don't know what you use. I am a big believer in current form. WOs are big part of that at SAR, but because they workout horses less at PRM, WOs aren't at PRM. I think trainers also run their horses more often at PRM than they do at SAR. I take that in to account. I am amazed that what works at SAR also works at KEE since KEE has an artificial surface. How does it work on the AQU inner which is my favorite place to bet?

Track Wpct ROI IV Sample
AQU (Winter) 16.7% -9.8% 1.38 311

Same method lost at most tracks during the winter. Best track to play during the winter was GG.

[Robert Goren]

Track Wpct ROI IV Sample
AQU (Winter) 16.7% -9.8% 1.38 311

Same method lost at most tracks during the winter. Best track to play during the winter was GG. Thanks

[Pensacola Pete]

It's no surprise that the top 4 and 5 of the top 6 tracks were those that aren't online at American ADWs, or at least none I know about.

[Track Collector]

It's no surprise that the top 4 and 5 of the top 6 tracks were those that aren't online at American ADWs, or at least none I know about.

I was typing this, then had to go away from the computer for a few hours. Subject track payouts only reflect the sharpness of the locals.

MPM (Mount Pleasant Meadows) has a average handle of about $500 per race, and that includes the exotics like the exacta. :eek: The others (Whoop Up Downs in Lethbridge, Marquis Downs in Saskatoon, and Columbus Nebraska) are low handle as well.

LnN (Lincoln, NE) can be excluded from consideration, because the track was torn up in the last year, and no longer exists.