2 Box Exactas (testing)

[Ray2000]

Small sample run to test out Strike Rate on 2nd pick to SHOW
Still trying to improve the "Horse underneath" method.....

Real Betting Win and Box Exactas
Balmoral R12....#9 Rev Me Up-8/1...........9-2
Batavia R13.....#1 In Good Hands-5/1.......1-3
Hoosier R3......#3 Ira Chief-5/1...........3-7
Hoosier R4......#4 Atomic Rei-5/1..........4-1
Hoosier R9......#2 She'S Shocking-8/1......2-10
Lebanon R4......#1 Topville Diamond-6/1....1-4
Lebanon R6......#8 Realiscape-8/1..........8-9
Mohawk R7.......#9 Rocklamation-10/1.......9-1
Mohawk R11......#7 Rock Me Amastreos-10/1..7-3
Pocono R1.......#5 Artache Hanover-6/1.....5-4
Pocono R2.......#4 Lee Ave-9/2.............4-3
Pocono R9.......#8 Allamerican Daddy-10/1..8-1
Pocono R11......#5 Double Dribble-9/2......5-8
Saratoga R1.....#7 Fritzie Rocket-8/1......7-2
Yonkers R5......#2 Wayne The Lefty-8/1.....2-5
Yonkers R6......#3 Statesman N-8/1.........3-8

GLA

[traynor]

Small sample run to test out Strike Rate on 2nd pick to SHOW
Still trying to improve the "Horse underneath" method.....

Real Betting Win and Box Exactas
Balmoral R12....#9 Rev Me Up-8/1...........9-2
Batavia R13.....#1 In Good Hands-5/1.......1-3
Hoosier R3......#3 Ira Chief-5/1...........3-7
Hoosier R4......#4 Atomic Rei-5/1..........4-1
Hoosier R9......#2 She'S Shocking-8/1......2-10
Lebanon R4......#1 Topville Diamond-6/1....1-4
Lebanon R6......#8 Realiscape-8/1..........8-9
Mohawk R7.......#9 Rocklamation-10/1.......9-1
Mohawk R11......#7 Rock Me Amastreos-10/1..7-3
Pocono R1.......#5 Artache Hanover-6/1.....5-4
Pocono R2.......#4 Lee Ave-9/2.............4-3
Pocono R9.......#8 Allamerican Daddy-10/1..8-1
Pocono R11......#5 Double Dribble-9/2......5-8
Saratoga R1.....#7 Fritzie Rocket-8/1......7-2
Yonkers R5......#2 Wayne The Lefty-8/1.....2-5
Yonkers R6......#3 Statesman N-8/1.........3-8

GLA

You might save yourself a lot of hard work by realizing that the place position is (relatively) rarely the second ranked entry in any category. It might be more useful (and save a whole lot of time and money) to build a dedicated place model, based on the attributes of entries that place, rather than based on the attributes of entries that (fail to) win.

[Ray2000]

Yes, I shouldn't have labeled the 2nd number in this listing as Pick 2... it is not my "2nd pick".
It is an entry with high probability to hit the board, the one which usually kills my exotic structured ticket.

It is based on Morning Line, Last race Final odds, Horses's WPS record and the specific Track Post Bias.

I shoulda known people would catch that :)

[traynor]

Yes, I shouldn't have labeled the 2nd number in this listing as Pick 2... it is not my "2nd pick".
It is an entry with high probability to hit the board, the one which usually kills my exotic structured ticket.

It is based on Morning Line, Last race Final odds, Horses's WPS record and the specific Track Post Bias.

I shoulda known people would catch that :)

Detail-oriented OCB makes for good race analysis.

[mrroyboy]

I like this Ray. Can you describe it further? ML odds etc?

[Ray2000]

mrroy

I play this game in a couple of different ways. I send in a batch of robotic Exacta/Trifecta plays around noon each day and secondly, I manually look at the robot's longshot picks to see if they're "ToteBoard Worthy". If so, I'll make a note to watch the board/race in real time to see if they're worth a bet in the Win or Place Pool. (some of these, I use for posting here at PACE, they usually have a comment).

The following morning I look up my Ex/Tri bets and lately I've been getting stung by not using what a pen and paper capper would surely have on his ticket. I have no data to back this up, just a gut feeling.

Anyway, to see if I could teach the robot to include a high percentage show horse which isn't already in its pick1-2-3, I did a check on the most important handicapping factors for Show performance similar to the one I posted on Win Factor Ranks.

Turns out when it comes to hitting the board, the 4 factors I listed above were highest on the 'importance list' and speed numbers were not. So I decided to do a small test run and post it here.

Pick 1 is the robots normal pick... the second number is the horse in the race with the best combination of ML, last race odds, WPS stat and post bias. I'm limiting the races to those where bot Pick1 has a good driver and is not in MorningLine top 3.

We'll see how it goes.

[Ray2000]

Switching to Win Pick1 and just track the Show Hit Rate on "The Spoiler"

Saturday
Bot had 2 winners Rocklamation $27.10 and Wayne the Lefty $10.60
Spoiler Number had 4 Wins and a Show.... OTB Strike Rate = 5/16

Sunday
Betting Pick 1 to Win, tracking the show rate
Balmoral R6.....#9 Clever Upstart-6/1......(#2 to Show)
Balmoral R10....#9 Night'S All Night-6/1...(#3 to Show)
Chester R1......#3 I'M Not Telling-15/1....(#5 to Show)
Chester R5......#8 Rusty'S For Real-6/1....(#1 to Show)
Rideau-Carl R9..#4 Delirante-6/1...........(#3 to Show)
Saratoga R9.....#3 Paints Hall-9/2.........(#9 to Show)