Dead on the board

[MJC922]

Anyone do any research in this area? Overlays present a dilemma, on the one hand you can't win without getting a solid price on your horses but on the other hand I have to believe very often the solid price indicates something else altogether and that something isn't so good. I'd like to put some effort into identifying the latter as I suspect enhanced profits and Win% could be the result.

Last night would be a case in point for me. Woodbine's 3rd Race, I had the 1,2,6 and 7 all within a point on recent class and went to the replays to separate. After the replays I liked 6 least of all and liked the 7 best of all, the other two neutral. 7 horse 'Citius' makes the most sense to me, moved wide last time well in hand, exactly the kind of horse I follow and stay along for several races, tonight the price is right 4-1 but why? Morning line is 5-2. I checked the exacta pools, 7-2, no action here. I bet anyway of course being the slave to the overlay that I am. The horse has early foot and the outside post at 7f, if you train or ride this horse you would think this is a great spot to draw into, all systems should be go. The board said otherwise.

The gate opens, jock just sits motionless, settles near the rear of the pack. IMO, just a very uninspired ride up for third. Not my intent for sour grapes here, I lose on bad rides all day long, but I like to see some effort. If ever it looked like there was a race next week they 'wanted' instead of this one, I'd say this was it.

But back to the dead on the board thing, anyone have thoughts to share on that? Does the morning line play a part in your determination that a horse isn't taking money or do you just go by the PPs? I mean anyone on this board can look at this horse's PPs and see that 4.45-1 looks a bit dead, I just think the morning line seals the deal on this one.

[Ocala Mike]

"Dead on the board" used to be very meaningful back in the day when the first flash at NYRA tracks and NY harness tracks consisted of all the early NY OTB betting. My friend loved to comment about horses that opened way, way, way, above their morning lines that the connections must have been parading up and down 42nd St. with a sign board reading "HORSE NOT GOING TODAY."

No database on this, but just intuitively speaking, horses who open substantially above their legitimate morning lines are suspect from the get go. I liked to look for horses in the 6/1 to 12/1 range who opened at half or less than half of their M/L, then drifted up but never got above their M/L.

[wiffleball whizz]

Dead on the board is a lethal factor......

Though live on the board horses can win, dead on the board horses don't win!!!

[pandy]

For horses to be dead on the board you have to believe that either the public is always right, or that there is so-called smart money. To win betting overlays you have to assume that you have identified a horse that the public has mistakenly under bet. If you try to second guess yourself by assuming that perhaps the horse is dead on the board for a reason, then you have no reasonable strategy for winning. With win betting in particular, betting on overlays is the only way to get a mathematical edge. So, don't over think it, bet on the overlays.

I have analyzed this and written about it and in my opinion and many so-called dead on the board horses win and they win often at racetracks all over the country, in both thoroughbred and harness.

I remember a few years ago at Parx, when it was still Philly, I was going to pass a 3yo maiden race when I decided to take a final look at the odds before the race went off. There was a firster by Tale Of The Cat, one of the best first crack sires, and the horse was trained by excellent first out trainer Anthony Dutrow and the colt was 26-1. I originally had no intention of betting the horse because it only showed two works and they were slow, but when I saw the odds I thought I just had to bet it at that price, even though it was dead on the board, and I rushed to the windows, bet it and the horse won easily as one of the best overlays I ever hit.

[wiffleball whizz]

This thread should be renamed "THEY" it's all who they have

[Ocala Mike]

So, someone with access to a database with this kind of information, answer me this:

What % of winning horses win at a price BELOW their M/L?
What % of winning horses win at a price ABOVE their M/L?
What % of winning horses win at a price = to their M/L?

I don't know the answer, but I would estimate a breakdown something like:

55% BELOW, 35% ABOVE, 10% AT.


Anyone?

[Segwin]

I remember a few years ago at Parx, when it was still Philly, I was going to pass a 3yo maiden race when I decided to take a final look at the odds before the race went off. There was a firster by Tale Of The Cat, one of the best first crack sires, and the horse was trained by excellent first out trainer Anthony Dutrow and the colt was 26-1. I originally had no intention of betting the horse because it only showed two works and they were slow, but when I saw the odds I thought I just had to bet it at that price, even though it was dead on the board, and I rushed to the windows, bet it and the horse won easily as one of the best overlays I ever hit.

What tipped the scales, the connections?

[DeltaLover]

An obvious horse who appears to be dead on the board seeming like an overlay most of the times is proven to be dead on the track as well. In the vast majority of the cases where you have a strong disagreement with the public it is you that will be proven wrong rather than vice-versa.

[Stillriledup]

I don't think big overlays and "dead on the board" are the same thing. Its also tricky to say that first time starters are ever dead on the board, they have nothing to go on, they could be any price at any time, and there's really no right or wrong on how they are bet.

I think you are more likely to find a true DOB horse from a barn that is typically bet heavily. For example, if a Pletcher firster is 3-1 ML with great breeding and a high purchase price and its 7-1 at the end of the betting, i would say that might be more of a "Dead" horse than Pandy's example of the Dutrow horse who paid 26-1.

There was a horse, and i can't think of the name, but this is a couple months ago in NY, i think it was at the end of the spring belmont meet, it was a Jacobson claim and he claimed the horse off of a "no name" trainer and the horse took exactly zero dollars and was WAY overlaid on the board. Now, that was a horse i figured to be a certain price and it was far higher than what was expected.

Its tough with firsters who are "cold" on the board, we saw one win recently at Belmont that paid 52 bucks with Alex Solis from the rail (he beat the pletcher 4-5 shot grey horse who finished 2nd) and i dont think that this was an example of a " dead on board" horse in the conventional sense.

To me, dead on the board doesnt mean big price or much higher price than the ML, its more of a situation where a horse has legit PPs, figures to be a major contender on those PPs in his situation, is from a barn that normally "gets bet"...you can just smell that DOB a mile away....and i think its different from a firster going off at 25-1. Just because that firster won, i dont think you can backfit that he was dead on the board.

[Robert Fischer]

If you know what odds the horse "should be", then you can play along.

If you knew the public was going to misread the horse, and just like you thought, a horse that should be 5-2 is 9-2, then you've got a nice play.

If you have no idea why a horse that should be 5-2 is 9-2, then you don't have a strong understanding of the market for this particular race. It's OK to pass the race.

[Longshot6977]

So, someone with access to a database with this kind of information, answer me this:

What % of winning horses win at a price BELOW their M/L?
What % of winning horses win at a price ABOVE their M/L?
What % of winning horses win at a price = to their M/L?

I don't know the answer, but I would estimate a breakdown something like:

55% BELOW, 35% ABOVE, 10% AT.


Anyone?

I would think that besides overall general %'s combining all tracks, the data really should be track specific since some tracks have a lousy M/L and some have fairly accurate M/L's. I'm curious too what these %'s will be.

[pandy]

What tipped the scales, the connections?


Mostly, Tony Dutrow is a high percentage trainer and he excels with firsters. But also Tale Of The Cat was one of my go-to firster sires at that time.

[wiffleball whizz]

Sears from the rail at 9/1 is dead on the board

Brennan with a Pena horse that's 2/1ml and now 6/1 can safely be tossed


Very very rarely does a dead horse on the board beat me

[Stillriledup]

Sears from the rail at 9/1 is dead on the board

Brennan with a Pena horse that's 2/1ml and now 6/1 can safely be tossed


Very very rarely does a dead horse on the board beat me

Harness racing morning lines are very bad.....just be careful if you see a "2-1" who is 6-1 and think it has no chance.

[wiffleball whizz]

Harness racing morning lines are very bad.....just be careful if you see a "2-1" who is 6-1 and think it has no chance.

Your so correct

There are ml makers that deceive the public intentionally

[iceknight]

as pandy said "For horses to be dead on the board you have to believe that either the public is always right, or that there is so-called smart money. "

now if you want to do this many many times then you are better off following formula's methods. But if you are looking for the odd one out with some angle. ..then dont care how the public is betting. Bet well and cash in

[pandy]

An obvious horse who appears to be dead on the board seeming like an overlay most of the times is proven to be dead on the track as well. In the vast majority of the cases where you have a strong disagreement with the public it is you that will be proven wrong rather than vice-versa.


That's actually true in terms of win percentage, naturally these so-called dead on the board horses lose more than win, but in terms of ROI they are actually profitable bets over the long run because they are overlays.

[BlueShoe]

This DOB angle seems to have validity with the first two choices, M/L favorites in particular. When what should be solid chalk opens way above it's legit M/L, only to be bet down near post time, it may be time to proceed with caution. Mark Cramer covered this topic some years ago and called such betting patterns the Kiss of Death, KOD angle. He believed that these favorites won at a much lower rate than what they should have. His theory was that live chalk should open below their M/L, the lower the better. I'm with Mark on this one.

[thaskalos]

I never take the morning line into consideration when I am trying to determine whether or not a horse is "dead on the board". I find that the available morning lines are generally very bad predictors of what the horses' actual odds will be...especially when these horses are favored in the betting.

I make my own "morning line", where I try to predict what the crowd will do...given what I know about the capabilities of the horses and the betting tendencies of the wagering public.

And if a horse is "dead on the board" by MY morning line...then I leave it off the top spot in all of my wagers.

[LottaKash]

I have found that in more recent years, that my "gut instinct" has become more astute when deaing with the DOB factor.....But only when it concerns my top rated horse, that is....

As my handicapping abilities have progressed, so too has my ability to measure my horse's chances as well....One of the biggest tipoffs for me, when it comes to a DOB horse, is when a certain horse that I have projected to have a very great chance at victory, opens the line (ML not considered) at what appears to be a great bargain price, and yet another entry opens the line at a ridiculously lower price than I would have accorded him.....This is a "red flag" for me....In this particular scenario, I have paid my dues and have had to eat some humble pie a time or two, when I had made the play anyway, despite my insight & gut feeling...haha....I will add too, that when there is more than one of these underlays, for my opinion's worth in this same race, it only reaffirms that gut feeling all the more, that my pick is "A for real DOB".... :eek:


Of course that is only one type of DOB, it may get a little less clear when there is more contention to a race....That is the true fun of handicapping, aint' it...?

[Stillriledup]

I have found that in more recent years, that my "gut instinct" has become more astute when deaing with the DOB factor.....But only when it concerns my top rated horse, that is....

As my handicapping abilities have progressed, so too has my ability to measure my horse's chances as well....One of the biggest tipoffs for me, when it comes to a DOB horse, is when a certain horse that I have projected to have a very great chance at victory, opens the line (ML not considered) at what appears to be a great bargain price, and yet another entry opens the line at a ridiculously lower price than I would have accorded him.....This is a "red flag" for me....In this particular scenario, I have paid my dues and have had to eat some humble pie a time or two, when I had made the play anyway, despite my insight & gut feeling...haha....I will add too, that when there is more than one of these underlays, for my opinion's worth in this same race, it only reaffirms that gut feeling all the more, that my pick is "A for real DOB".... :eek:


Of course that is only one type of DOB, it may get a little less clear when there is more contention to a race....That is the true fun of handicapping, aint' it...?

I think that gut instinct (at least for me) comes from really feeling like you have a great "handle" on the race and you know that if such and such a horse runs his A race, he should be a certain price.....and because he's NOT that "certain price" something tells you "there's no way this horse is cranked to run an A race".

[MJC922]

See attached for how the betting unfolded using the exacta pool as the source with 15% take applied to reflect comparable win pool odds.