What's your odds line? Poll

[JustRalph]

I have been doing some research and am wondering what your current odds line for betting is? Your bottom number to bet on a horse.

It appears to me if you haven't lowered yours in the last two years.......you probably are playing much less.

[Overlay]

I have no fixed minimum acceptable odds as such. It all depends on whether any given horse in any particular race is an overlay according to my fair-odds line. It doesn't happen often, but every once in a while, my line will rate a horse at fair odds of less than even money against the competition it's facing.

Last-flash odds drops can pose a challenge, but, since I'm looking at the whole field, those changes can just as readily raise the odds even higher on a horse that I had already rated as an overlay, as they might turn an overlay into an underlay. (Plus, those late droppers don't always win.)

[Cholly]

10-1; I'm rarely right, so I've got to at least get a Jackson back when I am.

[DeltaLover]

My key horse has to be in the neighborhood of natural odds. The shape of the odds line affects my selection as well. For example in a race where I have an odds favorite and a single challenger (for example a 2-5 and a 2-1) I might go for at least double the natural odds, but if the line appears relatively flat, I might go a few points lower than natural odds assuming I can eliminate several of the top choices of the crowd.

[Capper Al]

Mine is relative to the size of the field and the number of horses that I consider contenders plus one for the unknown horse.

[Dave Schwartz]

How about "1/9?"

I think this is discrimination. LOL

[Valuist]

There's no choice between even money and 2-1. There's a big difference.

In blackjack, they say never, ever play a table that pays 6-5 blackjack but its ok to play 3-2. 3-2 is still a bit short in racing, IMO, but I will take 9-5 in rare instances.

But I'm mostly an exotic wagerer anyways so not something I have to worry about often.

[raybo]

Minimum odds varies by track (average win payout) and number of final contenders. Base is number of win contenders minus half a point (3 contenders = 5/2, etc..), but I'm betting multiple horses many times, up to 4 depending on the pool size and chaos in the race.

[Stillriledup]

I have no problem betting a 1-5 shot if i think the horse should be 1-100.

I also have no problem betting a 99-1 shot if i think the horse should be less than that.

[thespaah]

I have been doing some research and am wondering what your current odds line for betting is? Your bottom number to bet on a horse.

It appears to me if you haven't lowered yours in the last two years.......you probably are playing much less.
This question is most likely to be directed towards spot/value players.
I look for the most logical choices and bet accordingly.
I really have no minimum odds per se.
My thinking is if I see little value in a play, I will skip the race.
For example, in a short field where there are two short priced horses that are likely to finish 1-2, I will skip the race as opposed to making a large bet and risking too high a percentage of my bankroll for the day.

[JustRalph]

There's no choice between even money and 2-1. There's a big difference.

In blackjack, they say never, ever play a table that pays 6-5 blackjack but its ok to play 3-2. 3-2 is still a bit short in racing, IMO, but I will take 9-5 in rare instances.

But I'm mostly an exotic wagerer anyways so not something I have to worry about often.

yeah, after I put up the poll I was pretty sure I would hear something like this.

I should have taken it down a little further. I don't personally play anything below 4-1 but I can see where depending on the race....... a smart player could play below that. I'm just not very smart..............

[thespaah]

yeah, after I put up the poll I was pretty sure I would hear something like this.

I should have taken it down a little further. I don't personally play anything below 4-1 but I can see where depending on the race....... a smart player could play below that. I'm just not very smart..............
Doesn't that depend on the odds you expect vs what the odds are at the time you've made your decision as to the horse(s) you'll play.
For example, as SRU put it, if a horse is at 2-1 when the field is being loaded that in your mind should be 6-5 would you not bet it?
Conversely if a horse is at 4-1 but really should be twice that, would you not stay away from that horse?

[JustRalph]

Doesn't that depend on the odds you expect vs what the odds are at the time you've made your decision as to the horse(s) you'll play.
For example, as SRU put it, if a horse is at 2-1 when the field is being loaded that in your mind should be 6-5 would you not bet it?
Conversely if a horse is at 4-1 but really should be twice that, would you not stay away from that horse?

logically yes. But, the expected odds drop after the bell keeps me out. I just have some kind of aversion to playing these really low horses. I rarely play 4-1 and sometimes kick myself. I just feel like that if my money is going to be in the race, I need a better payoff, no matter the horse. If they are all going to be close to 4-1 or less...... I can find something else to do with the money and time.

This has been a real problem with me over the last few months. I went away for a 3 months or more and came back fresh. But I still harbor this aversion to these super low priced horses.

[MJC922]

Some recent research of mine, we'll see how this stacks up with yours and others... With a fully comprehensive odds line my research showed nice profits could be had at very low odds even below 4-5. In fact accepting odds just one level i.e. barely above my line was more profitable ROI-wise at very low odds like 2/5 than any other odds range. These horses are very rare unfortunately so nothing to get excited about. Higher odds horses on my line were a different story. In those cases in order to be profitable for example with a 6-1 on my line didn't require 9 or 10-1, but more like 30-1. So this indicates the top-rated horse is where the majority of the overlays are going to be found. A less comprehensive method that I tested and posted results of showing the winter losses has far more playable horses but the minimum acceptable odds with that one are less forgiving, with 2-1 being the lowest I can take there.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Depends on the track.

Generally, my average is probably 5-1 to 7-1, but I need higher odds at Keeneland and Saratoga to offset the competitive fields and tougher trips.

Although I rarely bet a short-priced horse to win (I'll look for more value in the exotics), I will not even key heavy chalk at some tracks.

4-5 at Belmont or Gulfstream is a lot different than 4-5 at Calder or Fairmount... ;)

[nat1223]

any line if the horse is worth it

[LottaKash]

As a "spot player grinder", I will often take even money or so on a play..... The types of horses that I play in certain situations, are often as I refer to them, as "Gifts"....These gift horses are the backbone of my style of play....They allow me a nice churn as I await a nice bargain to pop up....My gift plays average about 68%wins.....

Many a time the gifts will go to 4/5, but just as often to 3/2 & up.....I am comfy with low price plays... They keep me interested in the game and help keep my confidence factor up as well.... I am a very fussy player, but in times past, because of that, I had found that I was leaving a lot of ez money on the table while waiting for the big ones to come up, which in today's games isn't as often as it used to be...

[raybo]

Depends on the track.

Generally, my average is probably 5-1 to 7-1, but I need higher odds at Keeneland and Saratoga to offset the competitive fields and tougher trips.

Although I rarely bet a short-priced horse to win (I'll look for more value in the exotics), I will not even key heavy chalk at some tracks.

4-5 at Belmont or Gulfstream is a lot different than 4-5 at Calder or Fairmount... ;)

I agree, different tracks require different minimum odds in my method. There are a couple of tracks where my win play is at 1/1 or higher. At Belmont, I will bet my top pick only, at any odds. That's the way the track tests and that's the way I play it, this last meet I ended the meet at 1.20 ROI, which is lower than last year's meet, but at any odds, that is good enough.