Valuist
09-17-2013, 08:30 AM
As Wiffleball posted a few months ago, underdogs are very live in MLB post All-Star break. Some teams perform better when there's no pressure on them, as they still have to strive for good stats.
Cubs +120
Jeff Samardzija has one of the strongest split differentials I've ever seen; This is since 2010. It looks like 2 completely different pitchers; one very good one, and a terrible one:
day: 230 innings 9 wins 20 losses 5.37 ERA
night: 246 innings 18 wins 11 losses 2.93 ERA
Being a Cub fan, we've come to see some guys like Alphonso Soriano, who'd put up much better numbers at night than day, and we draw our own conclusions. I'll let you draw your own.
It doesn't hurt that about the only Brewer with good #s vs Samardzija is Ryan Braun, who obviously won't be playing. FWIW, the Cubs don't have very good numbers vs the Brewers starter either, so definitely have to lean to the under as well for this night game.
Cubs +120
Jeff Samardzija has one of the strongest split differentials I've ever seen; This is since 2010. It looks like 2 completely different pitchers; one very good one, and a terrible one:
day: 230 innings 9 wins 20 losses 5.37 ERA
night: 246 innings 18 wins 11 losses 2.93 ERA
Being a Cub fan, we've come to see some guys like Alphonso Soriano, who'd put up much better numbers at night than day, and we draw our own conclusions. I'll let you draw your own.
It doesn't hurt that about the only Brewer with good #s vs Samardzija is Ryan Braun, who obviously won't be playing. FWIW, the Cubs don't have very good numbers vs the Brewers starter either, so definitely have to lean to the under as well for this night game.