View Full Version : Projected Improvement
PICSIX
09-14-2013, 08:41 AM
What factor(s) do you look for that point towards potential improved performance on race day?
IMO, the best single indicator of potential improvement is significant decrease (5 lengths or more) in first 1/4 mile raw time. Example.....
Most Recent Race :22
2nd Most Recent :23.20
3rd Most Recent :23
4th Most Recent :23
This horse has constantly ran in the 23's and suddenly runs a 22 flat opening 1/4. In my experience these types improve dramatically their next start and can offer very good value if they were nowhere at the finish line (assuming they have shown some capability in the past).
My theory is that the :22 has sharpened the horse for its next start, more so than any workout ever could.
Many distance horses are woken up in this manner by racing in a sprint or two and then stretched back out in distance.
If you use Formulator or BRIS PP Generator it's easy to spot these by setting the fractions to each horse's individual fractions (not the leader's fractions). You can also check to see how it has worked in the past.
Mike
HUSKER55
09-14-2013, 09:04 AM
how often do horses that spike like that actually come back again at that rate?
I do not believe it is as many as you think.
I don't think betting a spike is necessarily a good thing unless those other races were troubled trips.
But that is just me.
MJC922
09-14-2013, 09:13 AM
What factor(s) do you look for that point towards potential improved performance on race day?
IMO, the best single indicator of potential improvement is significant decrease (5 lengths or more) in first 1/4 mile raw time. Example.....
Most Recent Race :22
2nd Most Recent :23.20
3rd Most Recent :23
4th Most Recent :23
This horse has constantly ran in the 23's and suddenly runs a 22 flat opening 1/4. In my experience these types improve dramatically their next start and can offer very good value if they were nowhere at the finish line (assuming they have shown some capability in the past).
My theory is that the :22 has sharpened the horse for its next start, more so than any workout ever could.
Many distance horses are woken up in this manner by racing in a sprint or two and then stretched back out in distance.
If you use Formulator or BRIS PP Generator it's easy to spot these by setting the fractions to each horse's individual fractions (not the leader's fractions). You can also check to see how it has worked in the past.
Mike
Statistically the horse that just ran its worst race is the one most likely to run a vastly improved race today and improve by the most amount, the trouble is that amount is still rarely enough to make it a winner. In any case, I'm sure your angle is a positive sign provided there wasn't a tailwind. I don't know what formulator does, I don't use anyone elses stuff, but if it will allow you to go one step further and filter these types of horses by the date of their races you may find many fit your criteria on a specific day. That way you can filter out the ones that are weather-related anomalies.
raybo
09-14-2013, 09:15 AM
Assuming one has a "very good" pace metric, and no layoff after the 2nd back race:
1) improvement in 1st call and 2nd call 2 races back,
2) followed by a slight decline of those 2 early calls coupled with an improved late pace in the last race,
is a very powerful indicator of a peak performance in the offing. I call it a "2 race improvement", showing both ends of the pace situation having improved in consecutive races, first early, then late, but not both in the same race. Whether you use pace figures, or adjusted times/velocities, doesn't matter, as long as whatever pace metrics you are using are "good" ones, properly adjusted and equalized track to track.
Of course, the old standby: early improvement in a longer race followed by a move to a shorter race, or, a late improvement in a shorter race followed by a move to a longer race.
PICSIX
09-14-2013, 09:15 AM
how often do horses that spike like that actually come back again at that rate?
I do not believe it is as many as you think.
I don't think betting a spike is necessarily a good thing unless those other races were troubled trips.
But that is just me.
The :23 to :22 does not occur as frequently as :25 to :24 for example. I want to add that this doesn't pertain solely to front running types....I see improvement in stalkers & closers as well.
Take a look at tracks you play & check it out...maybe you will see something.
Mike
Capper Al
09-14-2013, 09:57 AM
What factor(s) do you look for that point towards potential improved performance on race day?
IMO, the best single indicator of potential improvement is significant decrease (5 lengths or more) in first 1/4 mile raw time. Example.....
Most Recent Race :22
2nd Most Recent :23.20
3rd Most Recent :23
4th Most Recent :23
This horse has constantly ran in the 23's and suddenly runs a 22 flat opening 1/4. In my experience these types improve dramatically their next start and can offer very good value if they were nowhere at the finish line (assuming they have shown some capability in the past).
My theory is that the :22 has sharpened the horse for its next start, more so than any workout ever could.
Many distance horses are woken up in this manner by racing in a sprint or two and then stretched back out in distance.
If you use Formulator or BRIS PP Generator it's easy to spot these by setting the fractions to each horse's individual fractions (not the leader's fractions). You can also check to see how it has worked in the past.
Mike
For me, your method is more for claiming races or non-restricted allowance races for older horses. Otherwise in other race types, I look at lightly run horses.
pandy
09-14-2013, 10:27 AM
What factor(s) do you look for that point towards potential improved performance on race day?
IMO, the best single indicator of potential improvement is significant decrease (5 lengths or more) in first 1/4 mile raw time. Example.....
Most Recent Race :22
2nd Most Recent :23.20
3rd Most Recent :23
4th Most Recent :23
This horse has constantly ran in the 23's and suddenly runs a 22 flat opening 1/4. In my experience these types improve dramatically their next start and can offer very good value if they were nowhere at the finish line (assuming they have shown some capability in the past).
My theory is that the :22 has sharpened the horse for its next start, more so than any workout ever could.
Many distance horses are woken up in this manner by racing in a sprint or two and then stretched back out in distance.
If you use Formulator or BRIS PP Generator it's easy to spot these by setting the fractions to each horse's individual fractions (not the leader's fractions). You can also check to see how it has worked in the past.
Mike
I agree that this type of improvement and quicker early speed seems to sharpen horses up. This is part of the theory I explain in my Pace Handicapping Longshots book. Oxbow and Palace Malace, longshot winners of the Preakness and Belmont, fit the pattern and were picked by the Pace Shape Method in my book.
PICSIX
09-14-2013, 11:36 AM
I agree that this type of improvement and quicker early speed seems to sharpen horses up. This is part of the theory I explain in my Pace Handicapping Longshots book. Oxbow and Palace Malace, longshot winners of the Preakness and Belmont, fit the pattern and were picked by the Pace Shape Method in my book.
Sounds like something I'd like to read...where can I purchase your book?
Thanks,
Mike
Hoofless_Wonder
09-14-2013, 02:34 PM
Speaking of books, Andy Beyer's "Beyer on Speed" has a lot of content around how to project improvement in speed figures, or at least how horses may perform in today's race based on their past figures.
Oh - and here's the link to Pandy's book:
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/longshotbook.htm
PICSIX
09-14-2013, 04:46 PM
Speaking of books, Andy Beyer's "Beyer on Speed" has a lot of content around how to project improvement in speed figures, or at least how horses may perform in today's race based on their past figures.
Oh - and here's the link to Pandy's book:
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/longshotbook.htm
Thanks
PICSIX
09-14-2013, 04:52 PM
CD--Second Street City :2: may bounce & be out classed but I'll take a shot at 16-1!!
Ocala Mike
09-16-2013, 03:57 PM
Bumping this thread 48 hours to add my favorite angle for expected improvement (maidens only):
Horse making its SECOND lifetime race today off an out-of-the money performance in its FIRST lifetime race. REDBOARD ALERT - See Belmont races 1 and 5 yesterday (Sun., 9/15) for examples.
Any of the following may increase the possibility of improvement (no special order of importance):
1. Addition of lasix.
2. Equipment change.
3. Well bet in debut.
4. Change of surface (turf to dirt, etc.).
5. Excuse in trouble line (greenly, awkward start, etc.).
6. Trainer "goes" the second time, not the first.
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