????

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Any opinions on the following statement


Horses that have no workouts since it's last race, if the last race was more than 21 days ago, should be looked at very closely before consideration. if the horse ran well enough in it's last race to be considered today, there is no excuse for keeping him idle for so long unless:

(1) The trainer feels he is ready to lose his form and does not want the horse to get injured.

(2) He came out of the last race sore.

Take a good look before selecting a horse with no workouts. There is a reason why he is in the barn

[HUSKER55]

I don't rely on workouts. The trainers work their horses everyday to get them ready. Pay more attention to the trainer. Trainers like Linda Rice, Assmussen and etc. come to win and whether or not a horse has a workout would not sway me from my pick.

If you want to worry about something, consider the possibility for a 5f workout and ran it in less that 12 seconds per furlong. Assume it was 5 days ago.

Gonna bet the horse? He just got done running a race...or not.

but,...that is just me.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

for me.

Now I give a long hard look AND look for races or race days that didn't run.

Sometimes the owner/trainer wants a race and can't find one (or doesn't look hard enough).

I prefer a recent race. I rarely lost to long layoff horses, doesn't seem as rare in the last 2-3 years.

[therussmeister]

I think 21 days is too soon to be concerned about a lack of workouts. I always used 28 days, but even then I see horses without works winning.

[thaskalos]

No listed works doesn't mean no workouts at all.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I would think that you have to know your trainers tendencies and patterns when evaluating this factor. Also at smaller tracks the cheaper horses will have fewer workouts then their major track counterparts.

[IrishRail76]

You are absolutely right. Florida has a number of "training facilities" that include standard starting gates, lighted tracks for cooler evening workouts and pretty much everything that a "regular" racetrack has. In addition, IIRC, states have different rules concerning the regulation and publication of workouts.

[classhandicapper]

My approach is to look for a change in the typical work out pattern of the horse and/or trainer.

If the horse's record is loaded with steady workouts between starts and suddenly there's a 25 day gap, that raises a red flag for me. If that's the standard handling of the horse, then it probably means nothing.

I think this can even be significant for longer layoffs.

A horse has a race, starts working about 10 days later, then there is a gap of 30 days, then a few works and now a race. That's a red flag for me even though the horse worked recently. The horse may have had an issue or been sick during that 30 day gap and could easily be less than 100% today.

[raybo]

I look at performances, from most distant to most recent, checking where the horse's weaknesses were in each case, then look at the works between those races and decide if the trainer did anything to address those weaknesses. I don't look at time periods, necessarily, except when I think the horse's performance pointed to a needed breather, or a rest. Otherwise, if the horse needs more early speed, then I want to see a couple of 3f works in 36 or less, if it needs more endurance then a work or 2 at 4-5f at 12 secs per furlong or so is what I like to see.

In other words, does the horse need the work, then they should show works. If it just needs some stretching between races, which might not even show up in the workouts, then not seeing any doesn't concern me.

So, to answer the OP, it depends on what the performances showed, as to when, or if, they should show some works.

[Robert Goren]

I would think that you have to know your trainers tendencies and patterns when evaluating this factor. Also at smaller tracks the cheaper horses will have fewer workouts then their major track counterparts.Bingo! At NYRA tracks you have know your trainers on WOs and how they treat horses at different levels. Some trainers treat turf horses differently than they treat dirt horses and sprinters differently than routers as well. Some trainers want fast WOs as well while others don't seem to care. Knowing this stuff is well worth the effort and will make a double digit payout horse look like an even money favorite sometimes. It makes a lot more races playable.
It does appear that at some smaller tracks, there are more trainers who win without published WOs. But here again, It behooves you to know who they are.

[DeltaLover]

No workouts since last is a negative handicapping factor since the crowd tends to overbet this type of starters.


no_workouts_since_last_race
MATCHES : observed winners: 5307.00 expected winners: 5485.78
NOMATCHES: observed winners: 7795.00 expected winners: 7616.22
x2: 9.96679 significant

one_workout_since_last_race
MATCHES : observed winners: 3783.00 expected winners: 3728.48
NOMATCHES: observed winners: 9384.00 expected winners: 9438.52
x2: 1.09184 NOT significant


two_workouts_since_last_race
MATCHES : observed winners: 2194.00 expected winners: 2133.19
NOMATCHES: observed winners: 7138.00 expected winners: 7198.81
x2: 2.21072 NOT significant

three_or_more_workouts_since_last_race
MATCHES : observed winners: 3223.00 expected winners: 3121.75
NOMATCHES: observed winners: 7009.00 expected winners: 7110.25
x2: 4.67959 significant

[Fingal]

No listed works doesn't mean no workouts at all.


Exactly. Visualize any racetrack in the morning that has the current meet, especially say a Santa Anita or one of the NYRA tracks. They're full of horses all competing for space- some are just walking, some are galloping, some have a timed work. With that number out there don't you think that occasionally works are missed or made up ? How many times do subscription clocker services say the track clockers missed a work or their times were off ?

It's trainers & their habits- for example out here in CA Baffert wants to let his horses hear their feet rattle. On the other hand with O'Neill- if he has a sharp horse he'll just gallop him between races so there will be no official works.