Belmont 8th race

[aaron]

Did anyone notice a big odds drop on the winner ? I thought he was 18-1 with about a minute to post. He went to the lead and was 7-1,then dropped to 6-1.Not sure,if I was right about the 18-1.Just checking,if anyone else noticed ?

[Stillriledup]

There was very odd betting on the 2nd place finisher, he got bet like he was a Grade 1 winner vs claimers. So, the "late money" was just an "overadjustment" by everyone else who realized that the 4 was the silliest 1-5 shot of the year. When a horse who's "natural chances" of winning are even money or higher and he's sitting there at 1-5 as the horses are approaching the gate, a lot of smart bettors are just pounding the other horses.

[aaron]

There was very odd betting on the 2nd place finisher, he got bet like he was a Grade 1 winner vs claimers. So, the "late money" was just an "overadjustment" by everyone else who realized that the 4 was the silliest 1-5 shot of the year. When a horse who's "natural chances" of winning are even money or higher and he's sitting there at 1-5 as the horses are approaching the gate, a lot of smart bettors are just pounding the other horses.
Thank you for your reply. What other horses got pounded ? Doesn't 18-1 to 6-1 seem a bit much ? How come the horses that get pounded always seem to break well ?

[Stillriledup]

Thank you for your reply. What other horses got pounded ? Doesn't 18-1 to 6-1 seem a bit much ? How come the horses that get pounded always seem to break well ?

The winner ended up with about 17k on him to win out of 150k. There was a 17-1 in the race who had about 7k...so, the difference between 7-1 and 17-1 in this race was about 10k.

As far as horses breaking well who go down in price.....it does seem like that's the case. Some tracks give their tellers a "7 second cancel" so bettors can make multiple bets and cancel the horses who don't break slow....which makes the horse who breaks fast go down in price. Hopefully this isnt a widespread problem, but a lot of racing is "dont ask don't tell" and you never know if this stuff is being investigated behind the scenes. Maybe there are tracks or simo facilities who have supervisors on duty who are "in the pocket" of the big bettor who cancels, so, he just lets these big bettors run wild cancelling.

like i said, hopefully this isnt going on, but, knowing the ineptness and lack of caring that the industry has, i wouldnt bet against this going on at certain places, but i would guess it only goes on with some live tellers who are on the take.

[JustRalph]

I bet the winner and was hoping for better odds. I think the :7: scratching screwed my price.

I watched the replay and noticed when the gate opened the winner was 7-1 and immediately dropped to 6-1

The 4 wasn't a bad fav.......but not so good he should have been bet down that much...........

[aaron]

Also,another odd thing today. In the pick 6 will pays the 5 horse was $98000.The 9 horse was $94000 and the 7 was $47000. How could that be ? It just doesn't make sense ?

[the little guy]

Also,another odd thing today. In the pick 6 will pays the 5 horse was $98000.The 9 horse was $94000 and the 7 was $47000. How could that be ? It just doesn't make sense ?


Net pool pricing.

[aaron]

Net pool pricing.
Thank you-please explain

[iceknight]

Thank you-please explain Try this link..(3rd link down will get you back on this site..) and no.. I am not usually like this.. but it's late on Fri

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=net+pool+pricing+racing


or this post (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=429193&postcount=14)

[aaron]

Thank you--that makes sense.

[Stillriledup]

So that means the 9 was won by a bettor in canada since the probable was 4k less?

[aaron]

So that means the 9 was won by a bettor in canada since the probable was 4k less?
That's how I interpreted it.

[JustRalph]

Grening from DRF tweeted earlier today

Street Swagg (16-1) goes gate to wire under @RajivMaragh, his third today, turning back 1-5 fave Summer Place to Be.

Then later tweeted

The NYRA infield toteboard was frozen for 5 minutes apparently so the correct odds were 6-1 on Street Swagg and 1-2 on Summer Place to Be.

FYI

[Some_One]

I don't buy it, the HPI data shows increasing handle in the leadup to the race


Historical win odds and win pool sizes at various time intervals
Print this tab
MTP
Pgm # M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 8 11 13 13 13 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 14 6
2 4 6 7 7 7 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 4
3 5 7 8 8 8 11 10 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 5
4 4/5 1/5 1/9 1/5 1/5 1/9 1/9 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/2
5 30 30 35 35 35 45 45 40 40 40 35 35 40 50
6 10 17 22 20 21 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 15 17
7 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Win Pool: $22,529 $30,011 $30,907 $34,869 $49,957 $55,743 $68,533 $71,838 $75,887 $78,005 $87,082 $106,248 $162,910

[burnsy]

Grening from DRF tweeted earlier today

Street Swagg (16-1) goes gate to wire under @RajivMaragh, his third today, turning back 1-5 fave Summer Place to Be.

Then later tweeted

The NYRA infield toteboard was frozen for 5 minutes apparently so the correct odds were 6-1 on Street Swagg and 1-2 on Summer Place to Be.

FYI

Thats exactly what happened. I bet the :1: because i thought it was 17-1.....i could not believe it because he was the speed and had way more experience that the :4: who was the biggest "bet against fave" of the day. First time winner stretching out against horses that have been running. The :1: was stretching out be he raced against way better than the :4: raced against (actual winners). Those are the kind you are supposed to bet against. Was happy i won but right after the race Durkin announced that the tote had been frozen.........The way i looked at it the :1: ,:2: and :4: had about the same chance to win...so i'm going to bet the one thats 17-1 every time. It worked out but i was disappointed by the exacta price. How that :4: is 1-2 is beyond me. But i rarely bet those (on top) anyway.

[Stillriledup]

Was the board "broken" again in the 4th race? I dont remember Deterrent being anything less than 3-1 at any point in the betting and he goes off at 8-5? Was he 8-5 at all points in the betting and i just missed it?

[affirmedny]

Was the board "broken" again in the 4th race? I dont remember Deterrent being anything less than 3-1 at any point in the betting and he goes off at 8-5? Was he 8-5 at all points in the betting and i just missed it?

I bet the winner of the 5th at Monmouth at 6-1 with 0 mins to go, he was 3-1 then 7-2 during the race and finally won @ 5-2

[Stillriledup]

I bet the winner of the 5th at Monmouth at 6-1 with 0 mins to go, he was 3-1 then 7-2 during the race and finally won @ 5-2

I think if i saw Deterrent at 8-5 i would have thought "ok, that's the winner" and proceeded accordingly. He was my main pick anyway, but i didnt bet him like i knew the result in advance (like some others did).

[Stillriledup]

Interesting how Belmont has a "new" tote company as of this meet and we're seeing all these odd betting situations. I dont remember seeing this or posting about this stuff at the Spa or the spring meet at Belmont.