Bel Race 5

[raybo]

In race 5 at Belmont today, the 6 horse had morning line odds of 5/2, as a first time starter. The trainer's FTS stats were poor, the workouts for the horse were poor, breeding only average, etc., etc..

Where did the morning line odds come from? And, how the heck did the horse lead the race from the gate until the winner finally caught him before the wire, with the 6 finishing 2nd?

That horse really screwed my pooch on the superfecta! :lol:

[precocity]

In race 5 at Belmont today, the 6 horse had morning line odds of 5/2, as a first time starter. The trainer's FTS stats were poor, the workouts for the horse were poor, breeding only average, etc., etc..

Where did the morning line odds come from? And, how the heck did the horse lead the race from the gate until the winner finally caught him before the wire, with the 6 finishing 2nd?

That horse really screwed my pooch on the superfecta! :lol:

because its called horse racing raybo! :cool:

[raybo]

because its called horse racing raybo! :cool:

Well, that's a given, but I was just wondering what "crystal ball" the track handicapper was using in order to set those morning line odds, on a horse that has very little data to work with. Did the trainer come up to him and say "my horse should be 5/2 on the morning line", or something just as absurd? Heck, I know I don't know everything there is to know about every horse running, but this one really has me stumped.

I would be willing to bet that nobody here had that horse close to those odds, except, maybe, someone who uses the morning line odds to make their odds line. Wonder what Dave S. had for those odds?

[nat1223]

inside info likely

[nat1223]

I can remember once when I was at the track I overheard a intense conversation b/t the owner and trainer about there horse and how happy they were that the odds were 16/1 b/c this horse was a winner. Well I played the horse to win, place and show for 500 each and made a nice little profit! oh and the horse looked like shit on the PP's

[Stillriledup]

In race 5 at Belmont today, the 6 horse had morning line odds of 5/2, as a first time starter. The trainer's FTS stats were poor, the workouts for the horse were poor, breeding only average, etc., etc..

Where did the morning line odds come from? And, how the heck did the horse lead the race from the gate until the winner finally caught him before the wire, with the 6 finishing 2nd?

That horse really screwed my pooch on the superfecta! :lol:

It was kind of a weakish field, the ML guy just figured that if this horse could run at ALL, he was the most likely winner. Sometimes it doesnt work out!

[CincyHorseplayer]

What was the sire and damsire and I'll run it?

[Stillriledup]

What was the sire and damsire and I'll run it?
malibu moon out of Towering escape (Giants Causeway)

[raybo]

It was kind of a weakish field, the ML guy just figured that if this horse could run at ALL, he was the most likely winner. Sometimes it doesnt work out!

But, isn't the morning line maker supposed to try to predict how the public will bet? Your explanation would mean that the odds maker was trying to set probability odds not predicted public betting odds. If you left it up to the public, with no morning line odds to go by, they would have had the horse at much higher odds. IMO, a good odds maker doesn't use "inside info" that is not available to the public, so he/she would use the same data that the public has available to them.

By the way, the final odds on the horse in question were 7.1/1. Quite a bit of difference from 5/2 wouldn't you say? Obviously the odds maker knew something even the whales didn't know, otherwise they would have bet the odds down.

[raybo]

What was the sire and damsire and I'll run it?

Here's some horse data from my program:

[Cholly]

One of the benefits of playing NYRA is Eric Donovan's ML--it actually means something. He's pretty damn close almost all of the time...and when he's not, it tells you something.

[PaceAdvantage]

But, isn't the morning line maker supposed to try to predict how the public will bet? Your explanation would mean that the odds maker was trying to set probability odds not predicted public betting odds. If you left it up to the public, with no morning line odds to go by, they would have had the horse at much higher odds. IMO, a good odds maker doesn't use "inside info" that is not available to the public, so he/she would use the same data that the public has available to them.

By the way, the final odds on the horse in question were 7.1/1. Quite a bit of difference from 5/2 wouldn't you say? Obviously the odds maker knew something even the whales didn't know, otherwise they would have bet the odds down.Why wouldn't a M\L odds maker use inside info when setting his line? A good one certainly will. Because that info WILL make its way to the tote board somehow. We've all seen the "somebody knows something" effect on the tote. A M/L odds maker who incorporates any "inside info" he may know about will serve to mitigate (at least somewhat) the "somebody knows something" effect....

[raybo]

Why wouldn't a M\L odds maker use inside info when setting his line? A good one certainly will. Because that info WILL make its way to the tote board somehow. We've all seen the "somebody knows something" effect on the tote. A M/L odds maker who incorporates any "inside info" he may know about will serve to mitigate (at least somewhat) the "somebody knows something" effect....

Not in this case.

[Stillriledup]

But, isn't the morning line maker supposed to try to predict how the public will bet? Your explanation would mean that the odds maker was trying to set probability odds not predicted public betting odds. If you left it up to the public, with no morning line odds to go by, they would have had the horse at much higher odds. IMO, a good odds maker doesn't use "inside info" that is not available to the public, so he/she would use the same data that the public has available to them.

By the way, the final odds on the horse in question were 7.1/1. Quite a bit of difference from 5/2 wouldn't you say? Obviously the odds maker knew something even the whales didn't know, otherwise they would have bet the odds down.

I have no idea if the ML maker is making the odds according to his opinion, or what he thinks the public will bet while putting his own personal opinion aside. That was a "Well bred" horse and there wasnt much in there to sink your teeth into, so the guy took a shot that the public would bet the firster.

[raybo]

I have no idea if the ML maker is making the odds according to his opinion, or what he thinks the public will bet while putting his own personal opinion aside. That was a "Well bred" horse and there wasnt much in there to sink your teeth into, so the guy took a shot that the public would bet the firster.

What it did was attract a lot of early money, before the public came to their senses and started betting the true favorite, which allowed the horse to go off at 7/1. Yes, the horse ran an excellent race, getting run down just before the wire by the favorite, but without knowing that horse was going to take the lead early and have a perfect trip, before the race, I still see no way that the horse should have been 5/2 morning line. In this case I thought the off odds were probably close to reality, and put him on the 3rd and 4th lines in my superfecta, missing it due to that horse getting 2nd. Missing the super is no big deal, I miss them by 1 horse often, but the way he ran and the fact that the odds maker somehow thought the horse would do just that, is puzzling to me.

I'd sure like to hear it from the odds maker though, his basis for setting those odds? After all, I still learn things every day. Who knows, he might have seen something I didn't. When I see a horse that either has a low morning line or gets bet down, when the available data doesn't support either, I check them very closely, just to make sure I didn't overlook something.

[Stillriledup]

What it did was attract a lot of early money, before the public came to their senses and started betting the true favorite, which allowed the horse to go off at 7/1. Yes, the horse ran an excellent race, getting run down just before the wire by the favorite, but without knowing that horse was going to take the lead early and have a perfect trip, before the race, I still see no way that the horse should have been 5/2 morning line. In this case I thought the off odds were probably close to reality, and put him on the 3rd and 4th lines in my superfecta, missing it due to that horse getting 2nd. Missing the super is no big deal, I miss them by 1 horse often, but the way he ran and the fact that the odds maker somehow thought the horse would do just that, is puzzling to me.

I'd sure like to hear it from the odds maker though, his basis for setting those odds? After all, I still learn things every day. Who knows, he might have seen something I didn't. When I see a horse that either has a low morning line or gets bet down, when the available data doesn't support either, I check them very closely, just to make sure I didn't overlook something.

Its just a guess by him, its a firster, nobody knows if the horse could run or not. I would find it hard to make a firster like that 5-2 unless i heard a whisper that the horse was decent. Its a hard call, if you make him 10-1 and he gets "internationally tipped" and goes off 3-5, you look like a fool. So, you make a stand and live and die by the sword. The horse racing well validated the guy's ML somewhat.

[raybo]

The horse racing well validated the guy's ML somewhat.

I definitely agree with that statement. The horse ran very well, and almost won the race. Probably best for me to just agree to disagree with the odds man.

[CincyHorseplayer]

malibu moon out of Towering escape (Giants Causeway)

Malibu Moon is an A(2-3yo)(2+)

Giant's causeway is a B(2-3yo)

There it is in black and white,nearly the highest precocity rating for 1st time starters on the sire side,with a dual edge on the damsire side.B,B+,A,A+ make up only 7% of the population of active sires/damsires.This is a very rare pedigree.

[johnhannibalsmith]

It doesn't hurt that this is the second foal from a multiple stakes placed dam and the other foal happens to be a full sibling that won its debut by a half-dozen at 4-5 with the same connections.

[raybo]

Malibu Moon is an A(2-3yo)(2+)

Giant's causeway is a B(2-3yo)

There it is in black and white,nearly the highest precocity rating for 1st time starters on the sire side,with a dual edge on the damsire side.B,B+,A,A+ make up only 7% of the population of active sires/damsires.This is a very rare pedigree.

Well, there you go, that must explain it. Thanks!

[CincyHorseplayer]

It doesn't hurt that this is the second foal from a multiple stakes placed dam and the other foal happens to be a full sibling that won its debut by a half-dozen at 4-5 with the same connections.

Wow that's a nugget right there.I'm getting the Maiden Stats next year for sure.Dam info is icing on the cake.Good stuff!:ThmbUp:

[overthehill]

I dont know if any of you actively bet new york or not. but the reason the horse was 5/2 in the morning line is because. 1. one of the contenders who actually won , has a trainer who wins very few races and 2. the horse is a full brother to a horse who was bet off the board in its debut and won for fun.
donovan is an excellent morning line guy and really does his homework.

Amazingly enough on the weekend another horse out of Malibu Moon who broke from the rail got no play and paid $52 wiring the field.

[MJC922]

In race 5 at Belmont today, the 6 horse had morning line odds of 5/2, as a first time starter. The trainer's FTS stats were poor, the workouts for the horse were poor, breeding only average, etc., etc..

Where did the morning line odds come from? And, how the heck did the horse lead the race from the gate until the winner finally caught him before the wire, with the 6 finishing 2nd?

That horse really screwed my pooch on the superfecta! :lol:

On my sheets anyway, both sides, sire and damsire are rated in the 80's, I call that a well-bred firster whenever I see it. Those ratings are based upon real performance of the offspring. I'm no pedigree expert but it is what it is. The trainer was rated 'C' with firsters, so not necessarily a weak point. I agree with you though the line looks a bit short unless he heard something about the horse, if you heard the horse has some early zip then a definite threat, I don't see an early pace fig near par in here. D J's Hope was top pace fig for me, 'D' grade trainer off for 17 weeks, not good. On paper the favorite looked like the horse to me, off the board.

[raybo]

Well the horse certainly ran a solid race, no doubt. I gave the odds guy the benefit of the doubt, just not enough benefit, I had the 6 on the show and 4th lines of my super, and had the winner, 3rd, and 4th finishers, missing the 6 for place. Pedigree or not, if the trainer doesn't have some decent FTS stats I'm not going to think well of the horse's chances, generally. But then, generally, I don't bet FTS anyway, this one was just a race that I saw some value in, and could cover the field cheaply, so I took a shot.

[MJC922]

Well the horse certainly ran a solid race, no doubt. I gave the odds guy the benefit of the doubt, just not enough benefit, I had the 6 on the show and 4th lines of my super, and had the winner, 3rd, and 4th finishers, missing the 6 for place. Pedigree or not, if the trainer doesn't have some decent FTS stats I'm not going to think well of the horse's chances, generally. But then, generally, I don't bet FTS anyway, this one was just a race that I saw some value in, and could cover the field cheaply, so I took a shot.

Talking about firsters, if misery doesn't mind some company a tough beat for me was the 11th race at Woodbine this past Sunday the 15th. Lone firster was Brighton Rock, I had the trainer rated as an F with firsters, I had the rider rated F, this is rock bottom for me. I had the breeding nothing at all to get excited about either, I think the horse came out with front wraps too, a nice touch, and took not a penny of money on the board at 45-1. This was the first horse I threw out. The horse breaks poorly running last up the backstretch then suddenly starts taking off with the rider and slips past the entire field up the rail and grabs the lead on the turn. The contenders close in on him at the top of the stretch he's totally hooked now. One of my keys takes control of the race with the other one moving into second by at least a neck if not half a length... but then I'm in a horrible losing streak right now so never say never. Somehow this firster comes back on again in the final yards and gets up for the place. This is probably one of the top ten most improbable things I've ever seen in decades. Everything from the horse looking hopeless on paper, to the gate trouble it had, to the horse getting past the full field rushing up the rail and then coming back again late after being put away. WTF. Jobber Bill must be hanger of the century material.

[MJC922]

Jobber Bill must be hanger of the century material.

A horse by the name of Take It All gave back the place spot. Three places in his first three starts, and now one show at my expense. My apologies to any Jobber Bill fans. :)

[Stillriledup]

"Moon" racing in a few mins at the Big A.

sitting at 4-5 on the board right now.

[Longshot6977]

"Moon" racing in a few mins at the Big A.

sitting at 4-5 on the board right now.

He won and had 55% of the show pool on him.