If your writing the next handicapping book...

[TheEdge07]

What subject would you cover the most?
There hasnt been a real good handicapping book written in long time .I would write about trakus and todays 36% win trainer..

[TheEdge07]

A chapter on TimeformUS.
A chapter on race riding
A chapter on tracks NOT TO BET AND WHY.

[thaskalos]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before...

[tzipi]

A chapter on TimeformUS.
A chapter on race riding
A chapter on tracks NOT TO BET AND WHY.

Which tracks do you stay away from?

[cj]

Form is the factor I think that is least discussed while being extremely important. In other words, how do we know if a horse is improving, declining, or maintaining?

[TheEdge07]

[QUOTE=cj]Form is the factor I think that is least discussed while being extremely important. In other words, how do we know if a horse is improving, declining, or

CJ can you give us an example?
The Red/blue fractions have helped tremendously..Arlington i followed closely using timeformus format..absolute sick r.o.i...

8/7 1st Prince Of Madness 18.20
8/7 6th Bold Perspective 31.60 (redboard $140 win)

Both great examples of timeformus red symbol of pace being super fast.

[BetHorses!]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before...


Bring a copy to the court please

[ronsmac]

Trainers,trips and the importance of the wind speed and direction.

[BetHorses!]

I would write about what this game is about...how to find competitive longshots

[ronsmac]

Also a chapter about over confidence, another about realistic expectations, and managing the ups and downs without going insane.

[Robert Goren]

How to handicap trainers.

[cj]

CJ can you give us an example?

A few:

Improving form:

Improving figures (often disguised by tough trips)
Significant positive trainer changes
Improving early speed
Unusually good physical appearance
Declining form:


Declining figures at the same or lower class levels
Significant negative trainer changes
Breaking poorly
Unusually poor physical appearance
I have plenty more. None are full proof of course, but there is a lot of value to be had in the area of form assessment. I generally rate all horses as + (expect better today), 0 (maintaining form), or - (expect regression).

[TheEdge07]

A few:

Improving form:

Improving figures (often disguised by tough trips)
Significant positive trainer changes
Improving early speed
Unusually good physical appearance
Declining form:

Declining figures at the same or lower class levels
Significant negative trainer changes
Breaking poorly
Unusually poor physical appearance
I have plenty more. None are full proof of course, but there is a lot of value to be had in the area of form assessment. I generally rate all horses as + (expect better today), 0 (maintaining form), or - (expect regression).

Maybe the TimeformUS staff can write a book on this CJ and how to embrace new technology into handicapping.

[dilanesp]

Gambling psychology.

Chapters:

1. Why do we want to gamble?
2. Overestimating the beatability of games.
3. Overestimating our own abilities.
4. Underestimating the competition generally.
5. Underestimating the advantages of insiders.
6. Underestimating the advantage of those with rapid access to information and betting pools.
7. Overestimating the significance of statistics with small sample sizes.
8. Overestimating our ability to decipher difficult handicapping situations.
9. Overestimating the playability of important stakes races.
10. Overestimating the playability of the last race on the card when we are behind.
11. Assuming short-term winrates are sustainable.
12. Getting complacent.
13. Overestimating the vulnerability of the betting favorite.
14. Overestimating the value in exotics pools when the favorite is likely to win.
15. Understanding value in exotics pools other than exactas, quinellas, and doubles, where probable payoffs are not available to bettors.
15. Playing too many tracks.
16. Underestimating the importance of handicapping factors that are not utilized by all of your competitors, including sight handicapping, trips, quirks in race conditions, track condition, and just about anything that doesn't fit very well into a computer handicapping program.
17. Being patient and skipping races when you don't have an edge.

[Pensacola Pete]

"Equine Pharmacology."

by Dick RutRoh

[misscashalot]

how to bet the board (follow the $$$)

[Robert Fischer]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before...

Sounds like a good book.

[Segwin]

A few:

Improving form:



Improving figures (often disguised by tough trips)
Significant positive trainer changes
Improving early speed
Unusually good physical appearance
Declining form:


Declining figures at the same or lower class levels
Significant negative trainer changes
Breaking poorly
Unusually poor physical appearance
I have plenty more. None are full proof of course, but there is a lot of value to be had in the area of form assessment. I generally rate all horses as + (expect better today), 0 (maintaining form), or - (expect regression).


CJ, speaking of form have you noticed how a horses speed ratings almost follows a sine wave form with hi's and low's? I use RDSS and it really shows that in the pp's (adjusted speed rating). I always glance at it to see where the horses is in the cycle.

[garyscpa]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before...

Steven Kolb's "How to Win the Pick 6" covered this.

[Binder]

I would love to see a book written about the life and day to day experiences
of a professional horse racing handicapper.
I would like to see a 1 month diary of this handicappers
bets, and thoughts immediately after each loss. The shelves are full of
books with winning methods but I think it would be interesting to
see how a professional reviews lost races

Also reading how this person bets and his feelings after the good and the bad.
How he feels going to the track or betting site and how he feels once there
and how he feels on the way home after good or bad days

Bill

[JustRalph]

Form is the factor I think that is least discussed while being extremely important. In other words, how do we know if a horse is improving, declining, or maintaining?

Have to agree. If you are a jcapper user you have a window into this. I have been dong some research recently in this area using jcapper and form is a huge factor. One of top two or three items that matter most.

It crosses across many other factors.

[JustRalph]

I would love to see a book written about the life and day to day experiences
of a professional horse racing handicapper.
I would like to see a 1 month diary of this handicappers
bets, and thoughts immediately after each loss. The shelves are full of
books with winning methods but I think it would be interesting to
see how a professional reviews lost races

Also reading how this person bets and his feelings after the good and the bad.
How he feels going to the track or betting site and how he feels once there
and how he feels on the way home after good or bad days

Bill

Fifty Shades of Roan........

[Speed Figure]

I must say that form is one of the things I don't think about. I let my numbers handle that. What are you guys using as form? last 30, 60 days?

[SandyW]

The next book has already been written.

Released for sale on September 3, 2013

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51lPwFy8MTL._SL160_PIsitb-sticker-arrow-dp,TopRight,12,-18_SH30_OU01_AA160_.jpg (http://www.amazon.com/Drug-Book-Arsenic-Milestones-Sterling/dp/1402782640/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1378770848&sr=1-1&keywords=the+drug+book)

[thaskalos]

Fifty Shades of Roan........
Is this a book?

[BetHorses!]

how to bet the board (follow the $$$)


If most everyone loses at the racetrack, how come everyone wants to follow the money??

[Rise Over Run]

How to handicap trainers.

Handicapping trainers is covered in detail in Chapter 7 - Trainer Intent of my book Slope Handicapping. However, I've seen your posts on this board (mostly off-topic), so I recommend the abridged version; Slope Handicapping for Dummies. :lol: :lol:

[JustRalph]

Is this a book?

A suggested title

[JustRalph]

I must say that form is one of the things I don't think about. I let my numbers handle that. What are you guys using as form? last 30, 60 days?

Jcapper form rating........it's built in but crosses into many other factors too

http://www.jcapper.com/factorsglossary.asp

See above page, scroll down to number 21. Also do a search on the page for

"Advanced form" and there's much more.

Years ago I was very much into form plays......but got away from it. Lately I have started back that way.

[Chris Longshot]

Non-sensical Handicapping....:)

[jdhanover]

Handicapping, The Pace Advantage Way.

In this book everything will be discussed and very little agreed upon.

[thaskalos]

Say...I got an idea!

Why don't we write our very own handicapping book right here on the pages of this site.

We can have each one of the experts here contribute a chapter.

With all the knowledge exhibited here...I think we have the makings of a bestseller.

[jdhanover]

Say...I got an idea!

Why don't we write our very own handicapping book right here on the pages of this site.

We can have each one of the experts here contribute a chapter.

With all the knowledge exhibited here...I think we have the makings of a bestseller.

Great idea!!!!!!! I nominate you for "How to Bet...and not bet"

[dkithore]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before...

When Thask?

[dkithore]

Say...I got an idea!

Why don't we write our very own handicapping book right here on the pages of this site.

We can have each one of the experts here contribute a chapter.

With all the knowledge exhibited here...I think we have the makings of a bestseller.

These are some of the people I nominate to write the best selling book:

Thask
Raybo
Delta
CJ (if he has time)
PA (Who has read it all, good bad and the ugly)
Volunteers (Readers who have extensively use canned software)
Tom's cryptic comments and humor (in between chapters)
Traynor and Goren (critiquing of the chapters, seriously)
Dave schwartz (on whales)
Class handicapper
Flatstat
Al Capper (my favorite)
And many more who are willing to share.

DK

[Robert Goren]

Handicapping trainers is covered in detail in Chapter 7 - Trainer Intent of my book Slope Handicapping. However, I've seen your posts on this board (mostly off-topic), so I recommend the abridged version; Slope Handicapping for Dummies. :lol: :lol: This has to be the most obscure book on horse racing ever printed. When I google it, all I get is a system for calculating a golf handicap. :faint:

[johnhannibalsmith]

This has to be the most obscure book on horse racing ever printed.

On sale at SRU Downs gift shop. No refunds, no exchanges.

[TheEdge07]

On sale at SRU Downs gift shop. No refunds, no exchanges.
This book is free with a purchase of toilet paper. :lol:

[dkithore]

how to bet the board (follow the $$$)

For your info. RPM has two system on this I found in their emails, 1) Dead Aim and Zarn Effect. Both over $55 or so. I have not used it so I can't critique it.
On this forum there was a lot of discussion on Tote Board. I recall Teddy had some contributions along the line of your interest too. Hope this helps.

Oh, I forgot to mention Dave's Renegade Handicapping module that spots the contenders backed by money (smart or otherwise). He provides an excel worksheet u can use to spot heavily backed contenders.

[thaskalos]

For your info. RPM has two system on this I found in their emails, 1) Dead Aim and Zarn Effect. Both over $55 or so. I have not used it so I can't critique it.


Well...considering RPM's track record when it comes to providing profitable "systems and methods" to the horseplayers...I would have to give these two tote board systems the benefit of the doubt.

[Rise Over Run]

This has to be the most obscure book on horse racing ever printed. When I google it, all I get is a system for calculating a golf handicap. :faint:
The fewer people that know about Slope Handicapping the better. Helps keep my personal ROI elevated. :lol: :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

My inclination would be to write a comprehensive book.


As I go through the actual process, to make an account of everything I do, and how I do it...

- from at least the entry of a horse, on through the race, and up until the next time the horse runs.

From there, I could dumb it down, so as not to give away much more than the organizational process.


Things like money management and the process, could be useful for players and they don't give your edge away.

[thespaah]

Chapters would include:
Trips.
Trainer statistics.
Reading the tote board.
Angles( track conditions, equipment changes, surface changes)
That's the short list.
Yes these may have appeared in books before.
But let's face it folks, handicappers and really smart people who've authored books on this subject before aren't all exactly the most fun to read. In fact, some can be quite boring.

[TrifectaMike]

If I were to write a book on "really" winning at the races, I would start the book with a discription of the final method and proceed to break the method down in reverse order...final method to the most basic data.

Along the way (in reverse order), I would describe the goal, provide theory, examples and actual code.

I would provide a methodology that would essentially break even using public information...such as Bris...at all tracks, distances, surfaces, classes...based soley on using final probabilities as ranked data.

Then I would destroy the book.

But the more I think about this, the more I believe Jeff Platt has a version of this method (at minimum at the philosophical level).
lurking somewhere in his software.


Mike

[MJC922]

What subject would you cover the most?
There hasnt been a real good handicapping book written in long time .I would write about trakus and todays 36% win trainer..

A modern-day Maxims and Methods type of book, and how the approach can be applied in today's game. From classifying horses to assessing physical appearance, down to finding the overlay and then executing the wager properly. Other topics to consider are how computers can be utilized in the process, anything from classifying horses to hooking into online tote data, many things are possible just in the past few years and most people have no idea how to setup any of this. Physicality is a big deal too IMO because it's largely uncharted waters and can trump all of the other factors sometimes, Hutson's book on physical appearance was a single-factor book stepping in the right direction but a very difficult 'read' unless you're from down under. There's a lot of interesting stuff to cover. Maybe someday.

[pandy]

My next book will be on class. I'll probably have a form cycle method as well.

[nat1223]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before... i think you right! would be a great topic by the way

[BIG49010]

Watch for my own book...soon to be at a bookstore near you.

It is titled...Betting Horses as a Business.

I don't believe the topic has been covered before...

Nick Mordin "Betting for a Living"

[Tom]

Ah, but Nick was living a life of leisure, not business! :D

[raybo]

Although I have little time for such an endeavor, I've entertained the idea since becoming profitable in 2004. I think I would stress form, in the handicapping area, and value win/exacta play, and value superfecta play in the betting area. In the player psychology area, I would stress approaching the game as a business, nothing more and nothing less, risk versus potential reward, and the importance of consistent cash flow using win/exacta betting to support the less consistent superfecta play. And, of course, how to handle both winning streaks and losing streaks without allowing either to impact the decision making process.

Having said that, I don't know if I will have the years left to get much of this on paper, so don't hold your breath!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Suicide Watch:The Lack Of Confidence In This Game Is Why The Horserace Game Is Profitable Because The Supposed Big Dogs Would Rather Play Poker.