EXCUSED BAD RACE

[SPEEDHORSE]

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.

William Quirin says that a bad race before a layoff or the first race after layoff can be excused. Any other excuses that you can add?

[pondman]

A horse is improving, so he's enter over his head...and gets walloped.

[chadk66]

A filly or mare going through an estrous cycle at race time. happens alot.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Okay a really odd race. Strange hot pace or strange no pace race. That or an odd bias or surface (including slop)

[JustRalph]

A filly or mare going through an estrous cycle at race time. happens alot.

I'm guessing you don't get that out of the DRF?

How do you know?

[Overlay]

You mentioned Quirin including the last race before a layoff (which Quriin defined (at that time) as thirty days or more), or the first race after a layoff, as forgivable. Other circumstances that he mentioned (on page 106 of Winning at the Races) were:

Any race in which a horse has a valid excuse for a poor effort. "Blocked", "bumped", "checked", "forced wide", and "poor start" are all valid excuses. In a route, a far outside post position may be considered a valid excuse. For a come-from-behind horse, a sloppy track may excuse a poor performance. (Physical problems, such as "bore out", "lugged in", or "bled" are not valid excuses.)

For a filly or mare, any race against males.

For a three-year-old claimer, any race against older claiming horses.

For a horse whose last "good race" came on dirt, and whose record indicates no "good races" on grass, any race on grass.

For a horse whose last "good race" came on grass, and whose record indicates no "good races" on dirt, any race on dirt.

The above excuses, and all distance considerations, are suspended when a horse takes a "considerable" drop in class (a drop of at least two class levels to a level at least two levels below that of the horse's most recent "good race").

[PhantomOnTour]

I will excuse a bad race before a layoff or a bad race after a layoff, but never both.
When I see a horse run a bad one, get freshened or stay away a long time, then come back and run another lousy race...time to look elsewhere.

[Clocker]

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.



Wrong distance (sprint vs. route).

Wrong surface (dirt, turf, synthetic)

Off track conditions horse has never shown it can handle

Last race was return from layoff

Trouble line -- bad trip

Horse was moved up over its head

Horse showed unusual early speed and tired (coming into form)

Etc.

[thaskalos]

If by reading the pps I find that the horse shows the capability of running big off of an inexcusably bad race, then I will forgive a bad last race, even if I can find no noticeable excuse for it...especially if the horse shows a sharp effort in his second-last start. A thorough examination of the tendencies of horse and trainer may even cause me to forgive TWO bad recent races back-to-back.

Some horses -- or trainers -- prefer to run big every OTHER race...so I feel it necessary to be more forgiving of a bad last race, when the occasion demands.

[chadk66]

there are numerous reasons a horse can throw in a clunker. they're not machines. they are just like humans in like we don't always feel up to snuff some days. horses can be fighting a bug and the barn help doesn't know it. Most of these big operations have so many horses they can't do the little things such as check the horses temp on a daily basis. My grooms did this on a daily basis and we kept a log of it. So if a horse spikes a deg. or two we caught it. So just physical ailments in the early stages not caught cause horses to run poorly more times than you can possibly imagine.

[chadk66]

I'm guessing you don't get that out of the DRF?

How do you know?
I trained horses for a fair number of years.

[turninforhome10]

Showing early speed in a 2-turn race from an outside post and fading while dealing with a contentious pace. Get an inside draw next out while training well and properly spotted and bingo.

[DJofSD]

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.

William Quirin says that a bad race before a layoff or the first race after layoff can be excused. Any other excuses that you can add?
What exactly do you mean by a bad race? Finishing position out of the money?

What if the horse ran 5th but was on or near the lead for a part of the race?

As others have alluded to already, you need to consider form cycle, the conditions of the race, trainer intent and some times, racing luck.

In part, where I am coming from is looking at the race within the race. Astute observers can pick up indications which never show in the PPs.

[maddog42]

I noticed that not many use distance as an excuse. I look at that first. I have become much more forgiving of a bad last race, including juju,time of day, and if it was thursday.

[TheEdge07]

Any switch

Surface
Track
Jockey
Equipment
Connections.

A hidden.bounce

[iceknight]

I trained horses for a fair number of years. do you know that for your horses. or for any mare/filly that you see in the paddock

[traynor]

I would like to know from members on what you think are legitimate excuses for a horse's bad race which you can dismiss when analyzing it's past performances.

William Quirin says that a bad race before a layoff or the first race after layoff can be excused. Any other excuses that you can add?

It might be useful to look at the flip side of that coin. What criteria do you use to determine that a horse's (specific) race is indicative of it's potential?

Given that the notion that every horse performing to the best of its ability/potential in every race is absurd, how do you distinguish the "indicating serious attempt to win" from the "out for a workout" races?

[Overlay]

What exactly do you mean by a bad race? Finishing position out of the money?
Quirin used the term "good race" to mean any race where the horse had finished third or better (regardless of race distance), or within two lengths of the winner in a sprint (less than one mile)(regardless of order-of-finish position), or within three lengths of the winner in a route (one mile or longer)(regardless of order-of-finish position). By those criteria, a "bad race" would be any race that did not qualify as a "good race".

[thaskalos]

Quirin used the term "good race" to mean any race where the horse had finished third or better (regardless of race distance), or within two lengths of the winner in a sprint (less than one mile)(regardless of order-of-finish position), or within three lengths of the winner in a route (one mile or longer)(regardless of order-of-finish position). By those criteria, a "bad race" would be any race that did not qualify as a "good race".

Bad criteria...IMO.

A horse who battles for the lead through grueling early fractions may well run a race which Quirin might label "bad"...but that would be a major mistake.

[chadk66]

do you know that for your horses. or for any mare/filly that you see in the paddockit's a seasonal thing. usually over by July or so. From about Feb thru July they have their estrous cycle approx. every 28 days. A fair number don't run for crap if they're in heat. I've had a few that were bad enough we kept them on medication to prevent the heat cycles. didn't do it to all because it wasn't necessary for some. They usually ran poorly a day or two before you could actually tell they were in heat. The timing of the cycles changes as the season progresses so it's hard to pin point when it's going to happen. So it's nothing a handicapper can really use. But it can be the reason why some fillies or mares throw clunkers.

[traynor]

Quirin used the term "good race" to mean any race where the horse had finished third or better (regardless of race distance), or within two lengths of the winner in a sprint (less than one mile)(regardless of order-of-finish position), or within three lengths of the winner in a route (one mile or longer)(regardless of order-of-finish position). By those criteria, a "bad race" would be any race that did not qualify as a "good race".

Using those (or similar) criteria, it is simple to code a function that extracts only the "good" races for comparison purposes, ignoring all the "bad" races. Adding a few other selection processes, it should be fairly simple to create a "how well this horse can run when it runs well" performance envelope for each entry, and then compare them.

That is essentially what pace handicappers and speed handicappers have been doing all along. Especially the Sartin pace handicappers "picking the proper pace lines." And--essentially--what most speed analysis and pace analysis software does "automatically."

That leaves unanswered the question of whether or not a specific entry will "run well" today.

[Tom]

Bad criteria...IMO.

A horse who battles for the lead through grueling early fractions may well run a race which Quirin might label "bad"...but that would be a major mistake.

I still use Quirin's idea about a failure instead of a bad race - a failure being not a good race it the race was either the same as the horse's last good race or today's race, ie, if the horse is entered in a $25K claimers at 6 furlongs today, a bad race at a mile is not a failure, and a bad race at $50K is not a bad failure.

[RaceBookJoe]

I still use Quirin's idea about a failure instead of a bad race - a failure being not a good race it the race was either the same as the horse's last good race or today's race, ie, if the horse is entered in a $25K claimers at 6 furlongs today, a bad race at a mile is not a failure, and a bad race at $50K is not a bad failure.

Yeah, I consider a bad race where a horse fails in what I consider a logical spot. I always look to see if I can figure out why the last race was bad..or good, sometimes I can while others its a semi-educated guess.

[johnhannibalsmith]

A lot of possibilities here but one of my favorites:

Horse is making his second start around two turns.

Showed speed as a sprinter and then in his first start going long, because most trainers aren't that bright, it was decided that the jock needed to take a hold and "save something" since they were going farther.

Now the horse is trying to do two things for the first time, run two turns and run through a hammerlock after being let run while sprinting its entire career.

If he runs back two-turns, you just pray and hope that the trainer is smart enough to let the jock do the riding and the horse do the thinking and he'll get to actually use his natural sprint speed and run the way he knows to. I couldn't tell you what percentage that meet this criteria actually win, but I would speculate that quite a number are playable at a much bigger price than they probably should be.

[Maximillion]

A lot of possibilities here but one of my favorites:

Horse is making his second start around two turns.

Showed speed as a sprinter and then in his first start going long, because most trainers aren't that bright, it was decided that the jock needed to take a hold and "save something" since they were going farther.

Now the horse is trying to do two things for the first time, run two turns and run through a hammerlock after being let run while sprinting its entire career.

If he runs back two-turns, you just pray and hope that the trainer is smart enough to let the jock do the riding and the horse do the thinking and he'll get to actually use his natural sprint speed and run the way he knows to. I couldn't tell you what percentage that meet this criteria actually win, but I would speculate that quite a number are playable at a much bigger price than they probably should be.


Agree totally.
If you have the pps from Penn there is a horse in the 5th that I think fits your description....the 6 Landry Jack.
Looking at her first route....the horse was taken off the leaders despite being somewhat tactical sprinting.I thought she ran ok considering the trip and what she was asked to do in that spot.

Ugly five horse field I know....but with what I guess you could call a "suspect" California invader,a twice beaten favorite and a 1 for 53 mare all likely to draw some support...she may still offer decent odds.Interesting to see if the jock lets her use some of her natural speed here.

[jahura2]

Poor race then a layoff is a good reason for an excuse most times.
Poor races on surfaces the horse hasn't raced on much, i.e. synthetic, sloppy, turf, yielding turf, These usually stand out.

[Maximillion]

Agree totally.
If you have the pps from Penn there is a horse in the 5th that I think fits your description....the 6 Landry Jack.
Looking at her first route....the horse was taken off the leaders despite being somewhat tactical sprinting.I thought she ran ok considering the trip and what she was asked to do in that spot.

Ugly five horse field I know....but with what I guess you could call a "suspect" California invader,a twice beaten favorite and a 1 for 53 mare all likely to draw some support...she may still offer decent odds.Interesting to see if the jock lets her use some of her natural speed here.

Rare case (at least for me) of the odds drifting up late. paid 16.00

[SPEEDHORSE]

Many thanks to all who responded to my query. I will compile all your replies in a list, which will serve as reference when I'm analyzing past performances...GOD BLESS YOU ALL !!!