Need Capping Help, I'm getting detroyed !!!

[SportsYoYo]

My goal is to turn horse racing into a profit. I have tried a few books on handicapping, most by Dick Mitchell, but they were unable to give me an edge. I used trackmaster and Dick Mitchells software, but still didn't win or even break even.

I hope to get some pushes in the right direction from others who were in my situation but are now doing well. Do you use a program ?


I know I'm a rookie but I am serious about wanting to improve. What steps do I need to take ?


All suggestions appreciated.

[cato]

FIrst, stop betting real money (to be continued)

Cato

[JimG]

Originally posted by SportsYoYo
What steps do I need to take ?



1. Stop Betting

2. Read handicapping books (do a search here for recommendations)

3. Find a mentor who is winning and learn what you can from them about handicapping and betting.

Jim

[GameTheory]

... and be prepared to work at it for *years* before you can be consistently profitable...

[Zman179]

And to think that I consider this game to be an "expensive hobby".

It is quite true that you have the potential to become a true winner at this game, but you'll have to invest a whole lot of time in order to do so.

One professional handicapper that I know who makes a living at this game spends about 10 hours a day at the track from the morning workouts until the 9th race. Then, he goes over charts and videotapes of races when he gets home. And this is all just for the NYRA circuit, nothing else.

I don't know about you, but compared to a lifestyle like that, there's NO SHOT of me quitting my day job. Not saying you'd do the same thing, but I think that it would be safe to say that there is no short cut to being consistently profitable at the races.

Zman (a day job is my 1/9 shot)

[kingfin66]

First, remember that the term winning really applies to the long run. You will always have short term swings.

1) Keep close track of your wagers. This will help you see what works and doesn't work as far as your betting goes.

2) Stop betting real money for a while. Practice your handicapping and try new things. Be contrarian. Make sure to keep track of your paper bets so that you can see what works and what doesn't.

3) Restrict yourself to win wagering. There is a lot of money to be made in exotic wagering, but beware - missed bets can drain a bankroll very quickly.

4) Have 2-3 reasons (or more) to justify every real or paper wager you make. For example, say you are handicapping a 1 mile turf race and have noticed that there is going to be pressure on the front end. Your top rated horse (#8) also has the perfect closing style for this race. Your Reason Why, might be something like: Turf; #8 - top rating & correct style; good price.

5) Always look for price - do not bet favorites. You may cash more tickets, but you will lose slowly.

6) Make an odds line for the race whether via your software or by hand for the contenders. Look for value in all bets.

That's all for now.

Take it easy for awhile and just handicap for fun. I didn't make my first real wager for 2004 until 2/22/04. After the Breeder's Cup until now, I simply handicapped and tried some different things. Some worked, some didn't work.

An important thing to avoid - this cost me real $$$ today - is not to get so bogged down in handicapping that you don't get a wager made in time. Case in point, SA 9th race, 3/7/04. I spent so much time structuring my exacta bets and making them, that I got locked out on my win bet that paid about $22. What an idiot I am. Win bets first, everything else later. I didn't heed by own advice and missed a nice pay.

[kenwoodallpromos]

There is a big difference between breaking even or making a tiny profit, and making a substantial profit. If you just do not want to lose, play systems or methods that are close to breaking even then be more selective. I began seriously to learn by picking quarter horses to show. Cashed 8 or 9 of ten bets, about broke even but I learned about consistent horses. I refined that and now do well with tbreds to place and show. I spot play "obvious" value bets, like a horse going for a 5th win in a row and paying close to $4.00. I look for success patterns in pp's, and circumstances which cause too much risk. / I also learned to sort out what is real useful factors and what is risky "tips" or wild rumor about what makes horses win that are unsupported by fact. I depend on wide research and long term statistics. / Lesson #1- observe and list factors that try to make for fair competition, like class, sex,age, and race conditions; list conditions that cause horses to win or lose, like physical condition, track speed(variant), trips and pace, trainer stats, class, track, or purse moves, etc. You will begin to notice what makes some horses perform well and how individual horses differ. You can use pp's and www.equibase.com full charts. / pm or email me if you like!

[Skanoochies]

Get a good job. Get a good lady. Get a good bottle of wine. ( Red, French, and dry, OO rating) rent a horse racing movie,like National Velvet, or Seabiscuit, put on the fondue while you are watching the movie, have a good night, go to bed, get lucky, put your money in the bank, and watch the Kentucky Derby once a year.
There are six million stories in the naked city, of the people making big bucks on the races, most of them are bullsh*t...................trust me I know.:D

P.S. don`t forget to return the movie on time.

Good luck.

Skanoochies.:D :D :D

[MichaelNunamaker]

Hi SportsYoYo,

You wrote "My goal is to turn horse racing into a profit."

You have already received a bunch of good replies. I think at this point we would need to know more about your goals to give you better advice.

I'll add my own two cents. I believe that there are _extremely_ few people who have made more money wagering than they could have made putting the same time and effort into other activities.

Yes, some people make a profit. But well over 99% percent of those who bet can't make a consistent long term profit. And of the fraction of 1% that consistently makes a profit, I'd wager at least 90% of them are making less per hour than they could in other activities.

Now, if you love racing and simply want to not have your hobby lose you money, that's great. You will find tons of good advice on this board.

Mike Nunamaker

[Pace Cap'n]

I can relate.

For many years I loved going to the races, but hated losing. About 4 years ago I decided to do something about it. I have yet to become an expert handicapper, but I now play the horses without fear of losing my shirt. And two of the last three years have been profitable.

As mentioned, betting favorites is a losing proposition for all but the very best players. Besides, it's more fun to bet the longer prices. The key to this is the ability to spot the false favorite. A book that will be of great help in this area is William Scott's "How Will Your Horse Run Today?".

Having found this discussion board is also a great leap forward. Go back through the archives and read all the posts you can. Almost every book written has been discussed here. Angles, pace and speed theory, wagering strategies, it's all here. And there are many winning players here--they know whereof they speak.

Personally, I wouldn't stop betting as I feel the the tension of the wager sharpens the mind. But it is imperative to keep the bet at a level that will not damage the bankroll or anguish the psyche. Other than that, what "kingfin66" said.

Best of luck to you. It can be done.

[Jeff P]

http://horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/LoseToWin/index.html

Understand that I use my own software. I'm not a customer of Dave's or a paid shill.

This is a VERY tough game to beat. But it is a game that CAN be beaten. Those that do beat the game consistently seem to have a few things in common. Simple as it sounds- they have learned how to win. The article on Dave's site describes the process of learning to win and finding your own approach as accuarately as anything I have seen. For that reason I think it's worth the read.

I'd second what Pace Cap'n said. There is a ton of useful information to be found in the archives of this site. Best of luck and welcome aboard.

[Binder]

Hi

Joining this board was a good step

I have already read lots of excellent suggestions for you

Some things you might want to work on

Don't bet or bet very small

Focus on the favorite in every race you watch
as Pace Cap'n just posted
"How will your horse run today "
is a excellent book for this.
Making money in this is all about
beating a false favorite

Spend as much time as you can with winners
Not guys who tout and brag But guys you see who
actually bet and show you there records
Learn from them and let the losers provide entertainment
for you while you pass unplayable races

Record your bets in cycles of 20 races

Everybody has good days and bad days
Don't let a good day fool you and dont let a bad day
depress you and make you start to chase

After each 20 race cycle you will get an better idea of your
ability

Hang with some winners. But go off or home bet on your own
Its a lonely road when its time to bet

Have fun stay positive and you will do good

Good Skill

[Tom]

Here is link some free stuff over at DRF......might give you a little help with some handicapping.

http://www.drf.com/row/fan_ed/winning-techniques-2003.pdf

[Rpd]

One of the best books to put oneself back on track in my opinion is Henry Kuck's "Winner's File" - wonderful thought process stressing there are no absolutes in this game.

It's an old book but a good one to get back to basics IMHO

[TravisVOX]

I had a post about this topic not too long ago. I haven't bet a race in at least two weeks. But I have kept up with my stats-tracking, notes etc. I'm going to dive back in on Wednesday with the Aqueduct Main Track. This time off has allowed me to avoid the stress of a slump, and let me appreciate what's happening in the racing world. I love the sport, and hope to nail it!, come Wednesday! Haha...I'm eager!

[JustRalph]

I thought this thread was a setup for someone to come in and recommend their wares.........

either way.......lots of good info

[Tom]

TravisVOX.....

Good point.
I too, have been laying low this winter.
Some Tampa turf, some CT at night, but with no long hours capping cards-just a few a week.
No GP. No SA. Little AQI.
I am pretty fresh right now, and will start following with interest soon.
The switch to the main track brings back a lot of my favoriote betting angles and opportunities. Hol park will be along soon, so evening racing comes back to me with the better horses.
FL opens in a month, so that it always good-they actually have a season here so there will be a lot of fresh horses rinning 4.5 furlongs.
A break is always good - I do well of the layoff.

[MikeH]

One thing I would recommend to a novice: pick one or two types of races, and play them exclusively at maybe 2 tracks. By "types," I mean:
- Claiming
- Maiden (and maiden claiming)
- Allowance
- Stakes Race
==================
- Dirt or turf
==================
- Sprint or route


Ask yourself what you're comfortable with, and focus. Period. No exceptions.

I would recommend that you start with claiming sprints and routes, dirt only. Don't play any 2 year old races, and don't play any three-year-old only races until maybe April or May.

Set up a simple spreadsheet to track your bets. Enter distance, surface, claiming price, sex, odds, and maybe running style (E, EP, P or S). Don't follow too many categories at first - after you figure out your style, you can modify what you enter.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tom
TravisVOX.....Good point.
I too, have been laying low this winter.
Some Tampa turf, some CT at night, but with no long hours capping cards-just a few a week.
No GP. No SA. Little AQI.
I am pretty fresh right now, and will start following with interest soon. The switch to the main track brings back a lot of my favoriote betting angles and opportunities. Hol park will be along soon, so evening racing comes back to me with the better horses.
FL opens in a month, so that it always good-they actually have a season here so there will be a lot of fresh horses rinning 4.5 furlongs. A break is always good - I do well of the layoff.

I am in the same boat Tom. I am waiting for Hollywood and Aqu main track. I am going to take a stab at my own figures and trying to recognize a track bias and when to apply that knowledge. The wife told me tonight that I need to start playing more. Can you believe that? She tells me I am in a better mood when I play more?

[karlskorner]

This should help. I don't agree with everything, but a good read.

www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010126.htm

[LutherCalvin]

Your own personality will determine your style and approach. Set S.M.A.R.T. goals (Specific, measurable, attainable, realistic, and targeted) Handicap each race after the fact and determine why the horse won the race. If you don't know why the horse won, those are the type of races to stay away from in the future. Read and listen to others opinions, but form your own and trust yourself. Seek and you shall find.

[Amazin]

LC said"Handicap each race after the fact and determine why the horse won the race.

Also find out why your horse lost. If you have 3-4 contenders in a race you might conclude that horse A or B won or lost for reason x. If you stopped there your work would be incomplete. Analyze the other contenders in the same race.You may find that others have the same qualities as another contender in the same race with the opposite result. Now you know your analysis was incorrect or incomplete.This is the hardest part of devolping into a skilled horseplayer. Find the answer to that puzzle and you have found the holy grail.

Hmmm....Last time I mentioned "holy grail",it was to Marcus.I wonder if he found it?:rolleyes:

[SportsYoYo]

Thanks for all the informative replies. I am erasing my slate and starting the learning process over.

I really want to show a nice 5 figure annual profit including my betting rebates. I don't know what the high end possibilities are for a mid 5 figure bankroll, but for now getting to break even ASAP will make me a winner with the rebates.

I feel really fortunate that I ran across this forum. I haven't delved into anything yet, but I know there is some great advice here. I am researching the ideas given here as well as some in the archives. I had never even thought of the concept of reverse engineering 200 races. I had given up too easily in the past.

I also love the idea of focusing on 2 or 3 certain types of races. I was flailing trying to beat all types of races, I just don't have a competitive edge.....yet. The 5 part article at horsestreet was a very good * reality check. * I realize now I wasn't truly diligent enough to win.

I think not betting is great advice, I wish I had the discipline to completely stop. I am cutting WAY back to a max of $10 on a race, while I learn.

Thanks to all the contributors here, you have no idea how much I needed this *road map.* ;)

[ranchwest]

>I realize now I wasn't truly diligent enough to win.<

If you expect to earn 5 figures, you need to be VERY diligent.

Some say they churn money by playing a huge number of large win bets each day.

Others say they work 70 hour weeks studying things you'd never believe they studied.

Either way, it is a lot of work.

[raybo]

<Ask yourself what you're comfortable with, and focus. Period. No exceptions. I would recommend that you start with claiming sprints and routes, dirt only. Don't play any 2 year old races>

Very good advise on concentrating your efforts. There are many very good tips in this thread. One thing I would say regarding the statement about how many people actually make money in this game, is that you will probably never run into anyone who is truly successful and does this full time. The reason for this is because they depend on the odds for a living. If they tell you how they do it then they will, in effect, be cutting their own throat. There are exceptions, of course. I have been studying the game for more than 25 years now and know personally only 2 people who are actually making a living betting on horses. There are many others out there but you probably will never see them. They will not stand out in a crowd. They are serious and don't have time for grandstanding.

You can, however, make a very nice living doing this if you apply yourself and are patient. I too would recommend that you stop wagering completely until you know what you're doing. If you're rolling in dough it makes no difference. Stop anyway. This will teach you control of your money. If you can't stop betting then maybe you shouldn't be betting at all. If you feel like you can't stop wagering, as it appears is the case, then you better examine the reasons causing this.

That said, there are a million systems and programs out there and I wouldn't give you a dime for any of them if you plan to let them do your handicapping for you. There is nothing that will do a good enough job to produce a profit in the long run. There is software that will help you but they are just tools. I suggest that you learn to write Excel spreadsheets or if you know programming, write your own handicapping program. Include a program to compare your picks with the actual results and store a minimum of 300 races at your favorite track that you can "run" after you have made changes in your handicapping formulas. This allows you to test new angles and also find out which race types, distances, etc., for which your program works best.

Learn to estimate physical condition, both current and in past races. This is the key to everything else in handicapping.

Patience,patience,patience -------------------

[InsideThePylons-MW]

First......Learn how to correctly wager as to maximize your profits.

Second......Look for "races", not "horses", to extract money using your opinion and multiple wagering options.

[DealMe3]

SportsYoYo-

1. Get Calibration Handicapping by James Lehane. I like it because it limits my play to only a few races, and it's effective. You don't want to get into the cycle of playing race after race.

2. Save the past performences of past races. By saving past issues of the DRF, I've come across other profitable angles that has limited my play to only a few races, and kept me in a positive ROI. You can also test angles by seeing what works at your track and what doesn't.

3. Always keep a written record of you betting activities. By doing this you'll find your weak spots.

4. Always do a post-mortem at the end of each day. If a long shot wins then you can always look into the past performances to see what you've missed. I still nail long shots by doing my post-mortem.

5. Remember that Horse Racing is not a sport, but a business. The owners buy horses to make money off of them. So, Horseplaying should be treated like a profession.

Hope this helps.