traynor
08-29-2013, 11:51 AM
As most of you know, I am reluctant to dig through old data on fishing expeditions trying to find something that work(ed) then, but probably does NOT work now. When I test, I want to apply it to "new" (current) races to see how it performs.
This is a combination of Pandy's comments about his success at Monticello and the comments of various posters on the importance of tote odds when selecting wagers.
MR Trot OddsLessThan2LastAll 264 14.02 % ROI 1.09
MR Trot OddsLessThan22ndBackAll 264 12.88 % ROI 1.25
What it means:
Flat betting every entry with the attribute that it had odds less than 2/1 in its last race won 14.02% of the wagers with a net ROI of 1.09.
Flat betting every entry with the attribute that it had odds less than 2/1 in its next to last race won 12.88% of the wagers with a net ROI of 1.25.
Testing and modeling is ongoing, but becoming more interesting every day. Note that no consideration is given to the odds in the current race--only the last race and/or the second race back. Also note that (as always) the mutuel prices of winners are truncated to 1.5 times the mean of the interquartile range to eliminate outlier distortion. Actual perfomance (and return) is substantially better than indicated.
This is a combination of Pandy's comments about his success at Monticello and the comments of various posters on the importance of tote odds when selecting wagers.
MR Trot OddsLessThan2LastAll 264 14.02 % ROI 1.09
MR Trot OddsLessThan22ndBackAll 264 12.88 % ROI 1.25
What it means:
Flat betting every entry with the attribute that it had odds less than 2/1 in its last race won 14.02% of the wagers with a net ROI of 1.09.
Flat betting every entry with the attribute that it had odds less than 2/1 in its next to last race won 12.88% of the wagers with a net ROI of 1.25.
Testing and modeling is ongoing, but becoming more interesting every day. Note that no consideration is given to the odds in the current race--only the last race and/or the second race back. Also note that (as always) the mutuel prices of winners are truncated to 1.5 times the mean of the interquartile range to eliminate outlier distortion. Actual perfomance (and return) is substantially better than indicated.