View Full Version : Woodward field is nuts!
iceknight
08-28-2013, 07:45 PM
There are some absolutely top quality horses running on Aug 31st!
5 out of the 7 horse are Gr 1 winners, with some having Grade 1's against older competition (not just 3 yo gr 1).
Of course Successful Dan has a Gr 1 from the Clark Handicap at SRU Downs, but will he get one at a real NTRA track now? Or will the track be set up for early speed again? Johnny V rides Alpha (blinkers on), for the first time..hope he takes some money :)
Purse $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I, Race 10, approximate post 5:45p.m. EDT), 3YOs & Up, 1 1/8 miles (dirt)
PP, Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Odds
1. Ron the Greek (FL), J. Castellano, W I Mott, 12-1
2. Successful Dan (KY), J.R. Leparoux, C LoPresti, 5-2
3. Fort Larned (KY), B.J. Hernandez, Jr., I R Wilkes, 4-1
4. Flat Out (FL), J. Alvarado, W I Mott, 7-2
5. Paynter (KY), R. Bejarano, B Baffert, 3-1
6. Mucho Macho Man (FL), E.S. Prado, K Ritvo, 6-1
7. Alpha (KY), J.R. Velazquez, K P McLaughlin, 15-1
All carry 126 pounds.
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/80333/successful-dan-paynter-head-strong-woodward?source=rss#ixzz2dJHQ2TBU
I would really like to go with Successful Dan again.. but closers are the bane of my bankroll. May be I will just watch, will definitely be a fun one to watch.
:6: Mucho Macho Man the price play and :1: Ron the Greek as a longshot in the mix, if he remains a LS
TheEdge07
08-28-2013, 08:00 PM
TP ducking?
iceknight
08-28-2013, 09:46 PM
TP ducking? well, no point in running cross traffic again... he has qualified for BC Classic...
i think all others in TP barn are injured or already on their way to the stud?
Striker
08-28-2013, 10:04 PM
TP ducking?
Targeting Jockey Club Gold Cup, then BC. Will Take Charge also might go in the JCGC.
TP ducking?
Yes. He knows there would have been no easy lead this time.
Getting less nuts, now Fort Larned is out.
horses4courses
08-29-2013, 09:37 AM
Getting less nuts, now Fort Larned is out.
Supposedly a hind end issue.
The horse has not been doing well of late....hope he can recover by BC.
http://www.drf.com/news/saratoga-fort-larned-be-scratched-woodward-stakes
iceknight
08-29-2013, 12:52 PM
Supposedly a hind end issue.
The horse has not been doing well of late....hope he can recover by BC.
http://www.drf.com/news/saratoga-fort-larned-be-scratched-woodward-stakes Aw man..
well now, it is a short field.. too bad
redshift1
08-29-2013, 01:28 PM
Still looks good, lot's of story lines.
Robert Fischer
08-29-2013, 02:14 PM
w/ Fort Larned out, and the general makeup of the field, Paynter looks very dangerous on paper.
Should be on or near the lead and force other's to run reasonably well to pass him before the wire.
I dug through some crates and file cabinets(and did a 5 second search with the invaluable PA search engine)
some of my notes on paynter:
asked to 'grow up fast' [as he will again be asked stepping up in class and distance 2nd off an illness layoff]
2nd start career = Santa Anita Derby(self explanatory) = 4th
Alw to Belmont Stakes(class+distance for 'rookie') =2nd
Alw then San Diego H (off of year long illness layoff) =2nd
*after Belmont '12 "he was tired (and passable by Union Rags) at the end of the stretch rather than that he had a bad performance."
*Before Haskell 2012 "Paynter looks like the best 3yo"
----
*His last race (SanDiegoH) was a good effort.
He broke on the wrong lead from the gate, and the pace was faster than what he will face going 9F in the Woodward this Saturday. Fundamentally he was as solid as can be after "getting off on the wrong foot" from the gate to first turn. While Paynter failed to run a Grade 1 effort, he was clearly best, as the eventual winner Kettle Corn sat a fantasy trip.
*4 fast 6F works following San Diego H. There is a good chance that physically, Paynter has now come back from the illness, gone through the shock and fatigue of adversity, and is now "beginning to get his wind" while still fresh enough to do some damage.
*Paynter has shown a tendency to finish 'evenly' if not flatten out a bit, but he has never 'stopped' or quit in spite of being asked to grow up fast and being 'thrown to the wolves' multiple times.
He seems to be the horse to key.
therussmeister
08-29-2013, 05:26 PM
TP ducking?
If I ever own a horse, I'm going to name him TP Ducking
raybo
08-29-2013, 10:01 PM
Even with Fort Larned out of the race, it should be entertaining. Of course, I will be rooting for Paynter, though maybe not betting him. I also like Ron The Greek, not because I think he's going to do well here, I just like the horse for some reason, and I might bet him if the odds hold well. That being said, Successful Dan, Flat Out, and MMM will probably be the ones to beat, IMO.
Come on Paynter!! :jump:
horses4courses
08-29-2013, 10:31 PM
If I ever own a horse, I'm going to name him TP Ducking
:lol: love it!!!
taxicab
08-31-2013, 12:27 AM
I'll try Alpha as the longest price on the board.
The entire field has 3 wins at Saratoga.
Alpha owns all 3.
His race three back is BTL.
He was beaten only 4 lengths by South African star Soft Falling Rain.
Soft Falling Rain has a strong look in two Group 1's coming up in England.
The blinkers going on Alpha might help also.
Guess I'll play an all-stakes P-3.
8)-Tetradrachm/Za Approval
9)- Lea/ Saratoga Snacks
10)-Paynter/Alpha
taxicab
08-31-2013, 02:56 AM
Please explain to me how Pletcher is ducking anybody with Cross Traffic.
Cross Traffic has run in:
Met Mile.
Whitney Handicap.
He's planning on running CT in:
Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Breeders Cup Classic.
All Grade 1's.
Really ?
Ducking ?
burnsy
08-31-2013, 08:23 AM
I'm looking at :4: Flat Out and hoping for 4-1. I think Mott ran this horse at a mile twice to sharpen him up, he also has a bullet 1/2 mile work 5 days ago . His 1 1/8 race in the Suburban was very quick for a horse that usually lays back. I see him in the picture early today sitting 3rd behind Mucho Macho Man and Paynter if he repeats that last race. Flat Out has made every big dance in Ny except the Whitney and hes fired every time. They have probably been waiting all meet for this day. When i compared campaigns the others have not run as consistantly (in NY or this summer) as this one has....if he fires today, hes going to be really tough against these.
Mucho Macho will probalby scracth...rain ruins a potetially good card.
pele polo
08-31-2013, 01:11 PM
Paynter by default.
Don't like a 7yo G with layoff after layoff to win G1. (Successful Dan)
Don't like a 7yo to win a G1 (Flat Out)
Ron the Greek ran that monster at GP to start year then tailed off a little.
Mucho Macho Man also been better in the past.
I like Alpha's chances at a price for 2nd / 3rd.
Too many horses on the downward trend.
Clocker
08-31-2013, 01:30 PM
Mucho Macho will probalby scracth...rain ruins a potetially good card.
Just happened.
raybo
08-31-2013, 01:38 PM
Race 10 Woodward-G1
EPP (EarlyPace - 2nd call) Picture - 5 4 1 7
PFV (PowerFormVelocities - Finish) Picture - 4 2 5 1
Win bets on top 3 ranked PFV horses at 2/1 minimum odds - :4: :2: :5:
TexasDolly
08-31-2013, 01:52 PM
I'll bet the 4 to win and a 4-1 exb.
raybo
08-31-2013, 01:56 PM
Race 9 Forego-G1
EPP (EarlyPace - 2nd call) Picture - 1 1A 7 4
PFV (PowerFormVelocities - Finish) Picture - 1A 7 1 4
Win bets on top 3 ranked PFV horses at 2/1 minimum odds - :1a: :7: :4:
Warm up with the Forego, who won the Woodward 4 times!
Jackson Bend at 10-1 is worth a shot.
My top pick is Sage Valley, and I will play at 7-2 or more.
Woodward - Alpha is the only one to win at Toga, and he won here in the mud.
I'll take him at 12-1,
If not,
Successful Dan....3-1 or more,
Flat Out.............3-1 or more.
raybo
08-31-2013, 05:18 PM
Race 9 Forego-G1
EPP (EarlyPace - 2nd call) Picture - 1 1A 7 4
PFV (PowerFormVelocities - Finish) Picture - 1A 7 1 4
Win bets on top 3 ranked PFV horses at 2/1 minimum odds - :1a: :7: :4:
Nice race from the 7! Thought he was going to go all the way to the wall in the stretch though! 16/1 !!!!
raybo
08-31-2013, 05:35 PM
Come on Paynter!!
Grits
08-31-2013, 05:49 PM
Tom, hope you took him at 7-1! ;)
raybo
08-31-2013, 05:50 PM
Race 9 Forego-G1
EPP (EarlyPace - 2nd call) Picture - 1 1A 7 4
PFV (PowerFormVelocities - Finish) Picture - 1A 7 1 4
Win bets on top 3 ranked PFV horses at 2/1 minimum odds - :1a: :7: :4:
Well I'll take it, but not much of a pace and Paynter looked sick, unfortunately.
7/1 ain't too bad in a short field, no complaints!!
Played 2 races today and got 16/1 and 7/1 - woohoo!!
Tom, hope you took him at 7-1! ;)
No, but I used him in an exacta as place bet with Flat Out at 4-1, So I bet 1 unit W on FO and 3 units Alpha/FO exacta.....and I did box the three in the tri....so steak tonight! :p
RaceBookJoe
08-31-2013, 05:56 PM
Well I'll take it, but not much of a pace and Paynter looked sick, unfortunately.
7/1 ain't too bad in a short field, no complaints!!
Played 2 races today and got 16/1 and 7/1 - woohoo!!
Nice "gambling" ;)
Stillriledup
08-31-2013, 05:58 PM
Warm up with the Forego, who won the Woodward 4 times!
Jackson Bend at 10-1 is worth a shot.
My top pick is Sage Valley, and I will play at 7-2 or more.
Woodward - Alpha is the only one to win at Toga, and he won here in the mud.
I'll take him at 12-1,
If not,
Successful Dan....3-1 or more,
Flat Out.............3-1 or more.
seems like you knew the results in advance!!
Filet Mignon tonight, well done! :ThmbUp:
raybo
08-31-2013, 05:59 PM
Nice "gambling" ;)
LOL - Nah, that was smart "investing"!
Grits
08-31-2013, 06:02 PM
No, but I used him in an exacta as place bet with Flat Out at 4-1, So I bet 1 unit W on FO and 3 units Alpha/FO exacta.....and I did box the three in the tri....so steak tonight! :p
Fine, fine work!! ;) Eat well, enjoy that steak.
raybo
08-31-2013, 06:12 PM
Nice race from the 7! Thought he was going to go all the way to the wall in the stretch though! 16/1 !!!!
Sorry, I quoted the 9th race instead of the 10th. I should have reposted the 10th picks after I heard about Alpha getting blinkers. :blush:
Speed Figure
08-31-2013, 07:52 PM
Race 10 Woodward-G1
EPP (EarlyPace - 2nd call) Picture - 5 4 1 7
PFV (PowerFormVelocities - Finish) Picture - 4 2 5 1
Win bets on top 3 ranked PFV horses at 2/1 minimum odds - :4: :2: :5:
Question? how did you hit this race if your picks clearly say win bets on the 4,2,5?
PaceAdvantage
08-31-2013, 07:57 PM
How would you like to be the woman who had the $15,000 free bet on Flat Out at 2-1?
Wow.
First off, I thought Flat Out had zero chance.
Second off, I don't know what I would do if I lost a free shot at $45,000 by a nose...after looking like a winner early in the stretch....talk about a heart breaker...
raybo
08-31-2013, 08:02 PM
Question? how did you hit this race if your picks clearly say win bets on the 4,2,5?
I stated, in the post just before yours, that I should have reposted the picks after finding out that Alpha was wearing blinkers. I apologized for that. When MMM scratched it changed things considerably, and brought Alpha into contention, especially going to blinkers, which told me they were going to do whatever it took to win this one. I forgot to repost those picks, which included Alpha as my 3rd ranked horse.
If you want to say I redboarded, be my guest. The money is already in my ADW account.
raybo
08-31-2013, 08:06 PM
How would you like to be the woman who had the $15,000 free bet on Flat Out at 2-1?
Wow.
First off, I thought Flat Out had zero chance.
Second off, I don't know what I would do if I lost a free shot at $45,000 by a nose...after looking like a winner early in the stretch....talk about a heart breaker...
I agree, Flat Out ran a heck of a race, pace was slow enough for Alpha to hold on though. I thought about mid stretch that Alpha was going to drift to the grandstand, but somehow he got it back together. Never gave up, that's for sure!
I feel sorry for that lady!
Yikes! I would be kicking trash cans over all down Union Avenue, up East Avenue, and right on Lake til I ran outta cans! :lol:
Robert Fischer
08-31-2013, 09:09 PM
How would you like to be the woman who had the $15,000 free bet on Flat Out at 2-1?
Wow.
First off, I thought Flat Out had zero chance.
Second off, I don't know what I would do if I lost a free shot at $45,000 by a nose...after looking like a winner early in the stretch....talk about a heart breaker...
wow
tough beat.
Flat Out looked a winner approaching the far turn, I guess the lead and Johnny Velazquez was all Alpha needed today.
Paynter sure was a no-show. Still a nice story.
Stillriledup
08-31-2013, 09:24 PM
How would you like to be the woman who had the $15,000 free bet on Flat Out at 2-1?
Wow.
First off, I thought Flat Out had zero chance.
Second off, I don't know what I would do if I lost a free shot at $45,000 by a nose...after looking like a winner early in the stretch....talk about a heart breaker...
Nothing a 200 dollar ALL/FO exacta couldnt have cured. ;)
burnsy
09-01-2013, 09:17 AM
How would you like to be the woman who had the $15,000 free bet on Flat Out at 2-1?
Wow.
First off, I thought Flat Out had zero chance.
I thought Paynter had zero chance and he did, it was a "Sentimental" fave to like a horse that came back like he has but really has not raced like these other horses have all year. I mean i love the horse and the story but 8-5 against these? I thought Flat Out was the best horse in this race, this year, and he probably was.
sammy the sage
09-01-2013, 10:04 AM
How would you like to be the woman who had the $15,000 free bet on Flat Out at 2-1?
Wow.
First off, I thought Flat Out had zero chance.
Second off, I don't know what I would do if I lost a free shot at $45,000 by a nose...after looking like a winner early in the stretch....talk about a heart breaker...
it HURTS...been there and one that...more than once..... :(
nat1223
09-01-2013, 10:17 AM
that's what a muddy track will do to you
burnsy
09-01-2013, 10:25 AM
I feel sorry for that lady!
Yikes! I would be kicking trash cans over all down Union Avenue, up East Avenue, and right on Lake til I ran outta cans! :lol:
I didn't even have 15,000 on him and i felt that way too and sorry for her...i should of told the poor lady the horse was carrying my fat ass too.........:lol:
speed
09-01-2013, 10:34 AM
I didn't even have 15,000 on him and i felt that way too and sorry for her...i should of told the poor lady the horse was carrying my fat ass too.........:lol:
Perhaps hitting the sweat box and dropping several pounds prior to the race would have made the difference. :)
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