Fast Times at Pocono Downs

[Just a Fan]

By Pandy

http://www.drf.com/news/bob-pandolfo-fast-time-pocono-downs

I have a couple of thoughts for consideration, on why times might be faster at Pocono Downs than at other tracks. And neither one has anything to do with the layout/physics of the track.

1. There are 36 trainers with at least 10 wins at PcD. MANY of them have questionable reputations, based on serious violations and/or getting kicked out of other tracks in their past (Allard, Berkley, Pena), or simply from having a history of getting suspicious improvements out of their horses, and long being the subject of rumors of cheating (in fairness I won't name names for that category here, but harness fans would instantly nod their heads when reviewing several of the names near the top of the standings). There are also some trainers that win far more frequently at Pocono than at the Meadowlands, which is developing a reputation for trying to get tough on cheaters. Isn't it conceivable that horses go faster at Pocono because horsemen are "loading them up" more than at other tracks?

2. Another possibility - maybe the style of racing/aggressiveness of the drivers/competitiveness of the fields results in faster times. For example, if Dave Palone is driving a 3-5 shot at the Meadows, he can often make the top and dictate (slow down) the fractions without being challenged because he often drives the best horse and has been an intimidating presence there for many years. I don't have any data to back this up, but if there are more competitive horses with good drivers in a typical race at PcD, that will result in more "action" during the races, which can cause the final times to be faster, and the track surface would have nothing to do with it.

Just some thoughts, to generate some discussion off of the article. I agree that it would be nice to see Pocono publicly measure the track, to erase doubts. It would be a huge can of worms, though, if the track came up short of a mile.

[Just a Fan]

PS - surely in the Roosevelt anecdote towards the end of the article, you didn't mean to suggest that Albatross raced against Jate Lobell.

[pandy]

PS - surely in the Roosevelt anecdote towards the end of the article, you didn't mean to suggest that Albatross raced against Jate Lobell.

I thought I wrote Jake Lobell, not Jate. Jake Lobell, if memory serves me correct, was a top free for all horse that year. I could be wrong though, it could have been Jake something else, this was 40 years ago. But this Jake horse was the main competition for Albatross that night.

[pandy]

Thanks for the input. Your point about the trainers is a good one but horses trained by trainers who ship in and have clean records also go incredibly fast, so I don't think that's it. Plus these same trainers you mention race at Yonkers, Chester, etc., and the times are normal.

You 2nd point is interesting because Pocono probably does have more movement than some 5/8's tracks.

[pandy]

I thought I wrote Jake Lobell, not Jate. Jake Lobell, if memory serves me correct, was a top free for all horse that year. I could be wrong though, it could have been Jake something else, this was 40 years ago. But this Jake horse was the main competition for Albatross that night.

I figured it out. Jake Jackson. Amazingly there is a newspaper article online that reports on the actual race that I saw in 1971 and the reported mentioned all of the horses in the field.

[Segwin]

1. There are 36 trainers with at least 10 wins at PcD. MANY of them have questionable reputations, based on serious violations and/or getting kicked out of other tracks in their past

Where does one go to gather this information? Any certain web sites?

[Just a Fan]

The leading trainers at PcD are here - you can also get to them from ustrotting.com, click on the racing pulldown menu, select entries/results, and then click track statistics. But I'm guessing that's not what you mean.

http://racing.ustrotting.com/reports/PcD_trainerstats.pdf

Its common knowledge that Allard was kicked out of the Jeff Gural owned tracks (Meadowlands, Tioga, Vernon) this year. Pena is also banned by Gural, and his Yonkers ban was well publicized last year. Berkeley got a 10 year racing ban in the early 2000s. All that stuff is documented fact and googleable. Beyond that, there are a number of trainers there that don't pass the "smell" test, but its not something that anyone can prove without bad tests, and there is no point in dragging names in the mud here. On the one hand, you can't believe everything you hear or read, but you just have to form your own opinion by using common sense and your eyes and ears.

This first site is the best website (that I am aware of) that allows the public to see some semblance of a national database of bad test results in harness racing... I don't know if its complete, but I like how you can mouseover the violation and see more info such as the classification of the drug. I know the NYSRWB and the NJRC allows you to key in a trainer name and you can see a history of rulings in those states against that trainer. The last link shows Cal Expo rulings. Don't know if there is an equivalent in PA or other states. Hope that answers the question... always better to go with documented info, rather than rumors and speculation.



http://www.rmtcnet.com/content_recentrulings.asp

http://rulings.racing.ny.gov/

http://www.nj.gov/oag/racing/njrcrulings.html

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/stewards_rulings_ce.html

[pandy]

The 2yo filly trotter I mentioned in my column won at Harrah's Phil. today all out in 1:54.2, almost 3 seconds off her world record of 1:51.3 at Pocono last week. This is just one more example of how suspiciously fast Pocono is. This is the same type of track, 3 turns.

[pandy]

Yesterday at Harrah's she set the pace and tired, trotted in 1:57. What happened to the filly that set a world record of 1:51.3 at Pocono a few weeks ago? I still think that she never actually trotted a 1:51.3, which is absurdly fast for a 2yo filly trotter making her 6th start.

[Ray2000]

My question is a simple one..

Who or what starts the timer at the track?

And is it the same everywhere?



I can't find an answer on Google.... :)

[pandy]

That's a good question and I'm not sure. There are a lot of inconsistencies. I discussed this with Dan Coon when I interviewed him. He believes that all starting gates should have computerized starts, which he used when he was the starting judge at Pompano. He told me that the cars don't always travel at the same speed. And I know that the gate doesn't always open at the same spot at some tracks. The night that Cooler Schooner set her improbable world record of 1:51.3 there were 7 world records broken at Pocono. The prior world record for a two year old filly trotter was 1:53.2 set by Check Me Out at Dover Downs and Manofmanymissions, a colt, had also trotted in 1:53.2 as a two year old, at Pocono.

Check Me Out's world record was not surprising, she was a world champion who won most of her starts.

[Ray2000]

thx Pandy

Your comment on 'starting gate speed' and my curiosity on how the timer starts, prompted me to look at 1st quarter pace% of the various tracks. If there was a problem of late timer start at Pokie then the 1stQ times should be too low in relation to other fractions and other tracks.

NOT the case. Chart shows (average) 1stQ as percent of final time for all tracks. Time data is the same as I posted on 8/31/13

[pandy]

So Balmoral's first quarters are the slowest, correct?

[Ray2000]

That's right. Why Calx and Balmoral are in there on par with the 1/2 milers is kinda strange. :confused:

Here's the average panel times I have for Nov2012-Aug2013
All "FT" rated, no Qualifiers, all at 1 mile, all classes


Races Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FinalT AVE%Q1 AVE%Q2 AVE%Q3 AVE%Q4
BR 735 28.87 29.66 29.71 29.28 117.53 24.6% 25.2% 25.3% 24.9%
CALX 536 28.82 29.57 29.21 28.98 116.57 24.7% 25.4% 25.1% 24.9%
BMLP 943 28.63 28.94 28.89 28.50 114.96 24.9% 25.2% 25.1% 24.8%
MR 688 28.59 30.05 29.55 29.69 117.88 24.3% 25.5% 25.1% 25.2%
FHLD 495 28.45 30.16 29.36 29.70 117.67 24.2% 25.6% 24.9% 25.2%
MAY 685 28.38 29.74 29.18 29.65 116.94 24.3% 25.4% 25.0% 25.4%
ACES 366 28.32 29.72 28.63 29.30 115.96 24.4% 25.6% 24.7% 25.3%
HAR 526 28.25 29.56 29.21 28.93 115.94 24.4% 25.5% 25.2% 25.0%
STGA 922 28.24 29.84 29.10 29.50 116.67 24.2% 25.6% 24.9% 25.3%
LON 481 28.21 30.15 29.20 30.22 117.78 24.0% 25.6% 24.8% 25.7%
FLMD 419 28.19 29.92 29.40 30.29 117.79 23.9% 25.4% 25.0% 25.7%
RIDC 422 28.17 30.03 29.11 29.88 117.19 24.0% 25.6% 24.8% 25.5%
NFLD 1195 28.13 29.60 29.41 29.79 116.94 24.1% 25.3% 25.1% 25.5%
MEA 1490 28.09 29.55 28.62 29.26 115.52 24.3% 25.6% 24.8% 25.3%
YR 1506 28.01 29.54 28.61 28.88 115.04 24.3% 25.7% 24.9% 25.1%
TGDN 462 27.84 29.23 28.34 29.31 114.73 24.3% 25.5% 24.7% 25.6%
PPK 778 27.82 29.36 28.92 29.44 115.53 24.1% 25.4% 25.0% 25.5%
HOP 987 27.65 29.65 29.26 28.49 115.05 24.0% 25.8% 25.4% 24.8%
DD 1102 27.59 29.13 28.62 28.89 114.23 24.2% 25.5% 25.1% 25.3%
PHL 1097 27.50 29.18 28.16 28.89 113.73 24.2% 25.7% 24.8% 25.4%
Big M 775 27.47 28.53 28.73 28.20 112.92 24.3% 25.3% 25.4% 25.0%
SCD 612 27.43 29.35 28.70 29.30 114.78 23.9% 25.6% 25.0% 25.5%
VD 418 27.41 29.52 28.92 29.11 114.97 23.8% 25.7% 25.2% 25.3%
PCD 1212 27.26 29.08 28.12 28.73 113.19 24.1% 25.7% 24.8% 25.4%
MOH 508 27.24 28.89 28.50 28.32 112.96 24.1% 25.6% 25.2% 25.1%
WDB 854 27.18 29.43 28.83 28.85 114.30 23.8% 25.8% 25.2% 25.2%

[Just a Fan]

Yep, and it makes sense that VD and Wdb are at the other end of the scale since they fly out of there down the straightaway on the 7/8.

I was wondering the same question that Ray posed about how the timing works. I kind of thought that Maywood might be an outlier on the chart one way or another because of the unusual way that they start races. Wrong-o.

Was anyone else skeptical about the 25 opening quarter at ScD by Pet Rock? Maybe I'm starting to question everything too much, but I've never seen anything close to a 25 flat on a 5/8, and I would think the field would be more gapped out than they were if they were going that fast.

Pet Rock and a Rocknroll Dance hook up in an interesting race (to watch, not to bet) at Delaware OH on Thursday, BTW,

[LottaKash]

Ray, you never cease to amaze me with your numbers...Great stuff Kid !..:jump:

[Just a Fan]

This last chart is interesting to me. I would say that as recently as the mid to late 90s, many 1/2 and 5/8 tracks would have shown the 2nd quarter as being significantly slower than the others. I think racing has changed on the smaller tracks, so that they are "on go" for pretty much the whole mile, almost like the racing at the Meadowlands. I used to play Pocono before the slots came in, and typical fractions would be 27, 59, 127, 157.

Thanks for the stats!

[Stillriledup]

By Pandy

http://www.drf.com/news/bob-pandolfo-fast-time-pocono-downs

I have a couple of thoughts for consideration, on why times might be faster at Pocono Downs than at other tracks. And neither one has anything to do with the layout/physics of the track.

1. There are 36 trainers with at least 10 wins at PcD. MANY of them have questionable reputations, based on serious violations and/or getting kicked out of other tracks in their past (Allard, Berkley, Pena), or simply from having a history of getting suspicious improvements out of their horses, and long being the subject of rumors of cheating (in fairness I won't name names for that category here, but harness fans would instantly nod their heads when reviewing several of the names near the top of the standings). There are also some trainers that win far more frequently at Pocono than at the Meadowlands, which is developing a reputation for trying to get tough on cheaters. Isn't it conceivable that horses go faster at Pocono because horsemen are "loading them up" more than at other tracks?

2. Another possibility - maybe the style of racing/aggressiveness of the drivers/competitiveness of the fields results in faster times. For example, if Dave Palone is driving a 3-5 shot at the Meadows, he can often make the top and dictate (slow down) the fractions without being challenged because he often drives the best horse and has been an intimidating presence there for many years. I don't have any data to back this up, but if there are more competitive horses with good drivers in a typical race at PcD, that will result in more "action" during the races, which can cause the final times to be faster, and the track surface would have nothing to do with it.

Just some thoughts, to generate some discussion off of the article. I agree that it would be nice to see Pocono publicly measure the track, to erase doubts. It would be a huge can of worms, though, if the track came up short of a mile.

The racing at the Meadows is more "gentlemanly" not to mention its a slower surface.

Another factor is be that Pocono might not even be a full mile track and that's why the times are amazingly fast.

Also, being a slots track, all they care about is the slots, they are probably secretly hoping there is some HUGE scandal with the horse racing and the govt just says "no more horse racing" and shuts the place down and of course, keep the slots.

At Meadowlands, the only way they can survive is by betting handle, they need people to bet to survive and the only way they can get people to bet, is to have competitive racing and a reputation of "cheaters not welcome".

[pandy]

That's right. Why Calx and Balmoral are in there on par with the 1/2 milers is kinda strange. :confused:

Here's the average panel times I have for Nov2012-Aug2013
All "FT" rated, no Qualifiers, all at 1 mile, all classes


Races Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FinalT AVE%Q1 AVE%Q2 AVE%Q3 AVE%Q4
BR 735 28.87 29.66 29.71 29.28 117.53 24.6% 25.2% 25.3% 24.9%
CALX 536 28.82 29.57 29.21 28.98 116.57 24.7% 25.4% 25.1% 24.9%
BMLP 943 28.63 28.94 28.89 28.50 114.96 24.9% 25.2% 25.1% 24.8%
MR 688 28.59 30.05 29.55 29.69 117.88 24.3% 25.5% 25.1% 25.2%
FHLD 495 28.45 30.16 29.36 29.70 117.67 24.2% 25.6% 24.9% 25.2%
MAY 685 28.38 29.74 29.18 29.65 116.94 24.3% 25.4% 25.0% 25.4%
ACES 366 28.32 29.72 28.63 29.30 115.96 24.4% 25.6% 24.7% 25.3%
HAR 526 28.25 29.56 29.21 28.93 115.94 24.4% 25.5% 25.2% 25.0%
STGA 922 28.24 29.84 29.10 29.50 116.67 24.2% 25.6% 24.9% 25.3%
LON 481 28.21 30.15 29.20 30.22 117.78 24.0% 25.6% 24.8% 25.7%
FLMD 419 28.19 29.92 29.40 30.29 117.79 23.9% 25.4% 25.0% 25.7%
RIDC 422 28.17 30.03 29.11 29.88 117.19 24.0% 25.6% 24.8% 25.5%
NFLD 1195 28.13 29.60 29.41 29.79 116.94 24.1% 25.3% 25.1% 25.5%
MEA 1490 28.09 29.55 28.62 29.26 115.52 24.3% 25.6% 24.8% 25.3%
YR 1506 28.01 29.54 28.61 28.88 115.04 24.3% 25.7% 24.9% 25.1%
TGDN 462 27.84 29.23 28.34 29.31 114.73 24.3% 25.5% 24.7% 25.6%
PPK 778 27.82 29.36 28.92 29.44 115.53 24.1% 25.4% 25.0% 25.5%
HOP 987 27.65 29.65 29.26 28.49 115.05 24.0% 25.8% 25.4% 24.8%
DD 1102 27.59 29.13 28.62 28.89 114.23 24.2% 25.5% 25.1% 25.3%
PHL 1097 27.50 29.18 28.16 28.89 113.73 24.2% 25.7% 24.8% 25.4%
Big M 775 27.47 28.53 28.73 28.20 112.92 24.3% 25.3% 25.4% 25.0%
SCD 612 27.43 29.35 28.70 29.30 114.78 23.9% 25.6% 25.0% 25.5%
VD 418 27.41 29.52 28.92 29.11 114.97 23.8% 25.7% 25.2% 25.3%
PCD 1212 27.26 29.08 28.12 28.73 113.19 24.1% 25.7% 24.8% 25.4%
MOH 508 27.24 28.89 28.50 28.32 112.96 24.1% 25.6% 25.2% 25.1%
WDB 854 27.18 29.43 28.83 28.85 114.30 23.8% 25.8% 25.2% 25.2%



Looking at it this way, it makes more sense with Pocono being the fastest 5/8. The times are reflective of both the track layoff and the quality of horses. Thanks Ray.

Regardless, I still have a tough time believing that Cooler Schooner trotted in 1:51.3 in her 6th lifetime start, especially since she went 1:54.2 and 1:57 in her next two starts. A two year old filly trotter that can go 1:51.3 around 3 turns should be a potential superstar and I don't think she is that much.

[pandy]

I did some research on this world record. Prior to Cooler Schooner trotting in 1:51.3 at Pocono, the world record for a two year old trotter was 1:53.2, taken by Check Me Out at Dover Downs and Manofmanymissions 1:53.2 at Pocono when he won the Breeders Crown. Check Me Out held the record for two year old filly trotter.

Check Me out set her record in November of 2011. Check Me Out won 25 of her 31 starts during her two and three year old seasons and was crowned champion of her division both years. Her fastest race ever was 1:51.2 at Lexington.

Manofmanymissions won 4 of 6 starts including the Breeders Crown as a two year old and retired with 13 wins in 21 starts for 1.2 million in earnings. The fastest mile he ever trotted was 1:52.1 at the Meadowlands in 2011.

So Cooler Schooner, in her 6th lifetime start, trotted almost 2 seconds faster around 3 turns than a two time champion filly, and almost two seconds fastert than a very fast colt, Manofmanymissions, as a two year old. And, Cooler Schooner trotted faster in her 6th lifetime start than Manofmanymissions ever did, and she trotted 1/5 of a second slower around 3 turns than the best time that Check Me Out ever record, which was around the fastest (Red Mile) two turn track.

I believe that you can't fake talent. You can't fake speed. If Cooler Schooner trotted in 1:51.3 in her 6th lifetime start, as a two year old, that would make her a super horse. And she apparently is not because in her two subsequent starts she averaged 1:56, which is what she trotted before the Pocono record. Sometime isn't right.

[Ray2000]

Her fractions on that 1:51-3 also look odd. (Campbell had the lead all the way)
26-4 28- 28-3 28-1

she had never brushed faster than 28 flat in previous 6 starts :confused:

The DTV was a modest -11

Delay on timer start?.......(the plot thickens :))

[jeebus1083]

I did some research on this world record. Prior to Cooler Schooner trotting in 1:51.3 at Pocono, the world record for a two year old trotter was 1:53.2, taken by Check Me Out at Dover Downs and Manofmanymissions 1:53.2 at Pocono when he won the Breeders Crown. Check Me Out held the record for two year old filly trotter.

Check Me out set her record in November of 2011. Check Me Out won 25 of her 31 starts during her two and three year old seasons and was crowned champion of her division both years. Her fastest race ever was 1:51.2 at Lexington.

Manofmanymissions won 4 of 6 starts including the Breeders Crown as a two year old and retired with 13 wins in 21 starts for 1.2 million in earnings. The fastest mile he ever trotted was 1:52.1 at the Meadowlands in 2011.

So Cooler Schooner, in her 6th lifetime start, trotted almost 2 seconds faster around 3 turns than a two time champion filly, and almost two seconds fastert than a very fast colt, Manofmanymissions, as a two year old. And, Cooler Schooner trotted faster in her 6th lifetime start than Manofmanymissions ever did, and she trotted 1/5 of a second slower around 3 turns than the best time that Check Me Out ever record, which was around the fastest (Red Mile) two turn track.

I believe that you can't fake talent. You can't fake speed. If Cooler Schooner trotted in 1:51.3 in her 6th lifetime start, as a two year old, that would make her a super horse. And she apparently is not because in her two subsequent starts she averaged 1:56, which is what she trotted before the Pocono record. Sometime isn't right.

Or hand time the race on your computer.

[pandy]

Or hand time the race on your computer.


Harness Racing Update said that they hand time the race and it was accurate, but that doesn't mean that it was a full mile.

[pandy]

Or hand time the race on your computer.


Harness Racing Update said that they hand time the race and it was accurate, but that doesn't mean that it was a full mile.

[pandy]

A friend pointed out to me that in Cooler Schooner's world record 1:51.3, breaking the world record for 2yo trotters by almost 2 seconds, she only won by 1 length. Adds to my suspicion that the time was not accurate.