NCAA Football Plays.. Against the Public

[hugh]

Same deal as the NFL. Going against the big public favorites. Always will get a few points betting ATP which over the long run makes for a profitable season. Will post my plays and results each week. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:r.
Last year I went on a tear in the beginning, but ended up going 26-19.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=97476&highlight=public
I love this time of year... I'm probably just going to target the big games.. usually taking the dog that no one likes plus the points.
Cheers.

[hugh]

I always like doing these against the public picks on nationally televised games.
We have one opening day when NC takes on SC.
No one is giving North Carolina a chance.. only 26% of the betting public is taking NC and the points..
media is obsessed with Clowney.. I see this being a close game.
Tar Heels +12 (maybe 12.5 or 13 on game day)
Let's Rooooooll.

[wiffleball whizz]

Same deal as the NFL. Going against the big public favorites. Always will get a few points betting ATP which over the long run makes for a profitable season. Will post my plays and results each week. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:r.
Last year I went on a tear in the beginning, but ended up going 26-19.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=97476&highlight=public
I love this time of year... I'm probably just going to target the big games.. usually taking the dog that no one likes plus the points.
Cheers.

There's a system I've never tried :lol: :lol: :lol:

[wiffleball whizz]

Merry Xmas

SMU +6.5
Washington ml prob around -140

Georgia Clemson total is 72....that line stinks and is way to high I guess I'm banging a over

Also taking the Ice cream money and pounding a Minnesota Fresno st money line like milk fed veal

Don't know who ole miss is to be laying 3.5 on the highway

[hugh]

I hate Already being 0-1 after the heels don't score with first down at the 2 (with 1 minute to play).. I mean come on! ...
"No one is giving North Carolina a chance.. only 26% of the betting public is taking NC and the points..
media is obsessed with Clowney.. I see this being a close game.
Tar Heels +12 (maybe 12.5 or 13 on game day)"
I still think it was a good play, but a loss is a loss.. moving on...
I like to target the big games.. aka nationally televised contests where the sports books really cash in when the heavily backed public faves lose.
These are my first Saturday of college football plays:
1) Buffalo +35 against the Buckeyes.... the morning game on ESPN 2... expecting monster action on Ohio State tomorrow morning. We should be able to get 36-36.5 points before game time. only 22% giving Buffalo a chance.
2) Miss State +12.5 .. Only 18-22% going against the Cowboys. ABC game... Rankings don't mean that much this early in the season.. but ranked teams get all the public money.
3)California +6 ... Always love the night game for against the public plays.. People down during the day go on tilt and back any fave. In this case that's Northwestern. Only 20-30% Cal at this moment. I'm one of them.
4) A small play on TCU. They can get it done against the Tigers. Less than 25% giving TCU a chance.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[wiffleball whizz]

Locks for tmrw......U-dub........tcu

I'm still cashing tix from last night.......risky money line Parker that was in the sweatbox till 3am


Now in this smu game I made a play on smu ml and +4 this qb was was the one who came in when colt McCoy went down in the bama game on Texas

[sammy the sage]

Toledo +24...get it quickly....

[wiffleball whizz]

This Methodist qb is tits on a bull.....how can your first game be against bama in championship then u can't carve up a horrific TT squad.....dont see how I can get either side home on this game.......FML.....

[tucker6]

I hate Already being 0-1 after the heels don't score with first down at the 2 (with 1 minute to play).. I mean come on! ...
"No one is giving North Carolina a chance.. only 26% of the betting public is taking NC and the points..
media is obsessed with Clowney.. I see this being a close game.
Tar Heels +12 (maybe 12.5 or 13 on game day)"
I still think it was a good play, but a loss is a loss.. moving on...
I like to target the big games.. aka nationally televised contests where the sports books really cash in when the heavily backed public faves lose.
These are my first Saturday of college football plays:
1) Buffalo +35 against the Buckeyes.... the morning game on ESPN 2... expecting monster action on Ohio State tomorrow morning. We should be able to get 36-36.5 points before game time. only 22% giving Buffalo a chance.
2) Miss State +12.5 .. Only 18-22% going against the Cowboys. ABC game... Rankings don't mean that much this early in the season.. but ranked teams get all the public money.
3)California +6 ... Always love the night game for against the public plays.. People down during the day go on tilt and back any fave. In this case that's Northwestern. Only 20-30% Cal at this moment. I'm one of them.
4) A small play on TCU. They can get it done against the Tigers. Less than 25% giving TCU a chance.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I use a system similar to you, however I don't consider 26% to be close to mortal lock territory. I really only bet on teams that are getting less than 15% of the take. High percentage of wins when taking these teams.

[wiffleball whizz]

4 team money line parlay....

Nc st
Washington
Penn st
Pokes

[Marshall Bennett]

A&M -28

OSU -11

Arkansas -10

Pitt +10.5

[wiffleball whizz]

A&M -28

OSU -11

Arkansas -10

Pitt +10.5

Do u see A&M with Johnny football playing the 2nd half good for 35 points in the 2h?

I'm burying TCU......line stinks

[hugh]

The season is a grind. Last year started out amazing.. this year not so much. But I'm sticking with the system. We're only getting started.
Going to target the big games on TV (where the books make their real money)
Week Two Against the Public.... Two smart money plays this week.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
Illinois +8.5... 21% of the money... Love going ATP on the early game. Smart money is all over this one.. (this is seen in a low public bet percentage with the line going the other way.. line went from +10 to plus 8 )
Virginia +22.5.. 10%!!!... Smart money play.. only 10% on the Cavs and the line is going the other way from +23.5 to around +21.5-->+23
SD State... +28 ... 23% .. No team attracts public $ like the Buckeyes
BYU +7.5 ... 13%... TRAP CITY .. Long Horns getting over hyped against a quality BYU squad.
West Virginia +21 .... 12%
Irish +3.5 ... 30% ... I'm rolling my winnings into the night game. Notre Dame baby.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[wiffleball whizz]

Ok st USTA over for my life

[speed]

Ok st USTA over for my life
The old joke......
There's a $2 minimum. :)

[wiffleball whizz]

The old joke......
There's a $2 minimum. :)

Hahahahahahahahahaha I like that one!!!!!

[rastajenk]

The Buckeyes need some style points after last week. And SD lost to Eastern Ill at home, badly. I wouldn't bet against them (OSU) at -28.

[hugh]

I've got to go the other way on the Michagan/ Irish game. Dumb money is flooding in on Notre Dame at +4. The Wolverines look like the play in this game.
This is no longer an AgainstThePublic play... ND is taking 37-41% of the action now.

[wiffleball whizz]

I've got to go the other way on the Michagan/ Irish game. Dumb money is flooding in on Notre Dame at +4. The Wolverines look like the play in this game.
This is no longer an AgainstThePublic play... ND is taking 37-41% of the action now.

Agree in nd mich there is no against the public play ever....prob the only game left in football that has equal following as betting interest

[hugh]

A 4-2 week moves my season to 5-6.. better, but I'm still in the red.
Here are the games I'm targeting this week. Again; most are big, televised, and attract a lot of public money.
--------------------------------------
1)Kentucky +14 .... A big state rivalry in the early game? Give me some of that! A lot of the public will be in the red after they get spanked taking Louisville here. Only 7-8% are taking the Wildcats and the points. Big Play for me.
2) Nebraska -4.5 .... getting around 25% of public cash. After seeing this bruin team in action I don't know why they are getting hyped. Taking the Huskers minus the points for this ABC show case.
3) Alabama.. if you need an action play go with the Tide.
4) Nevada +32-33 ... only 1/5 bettors giving Nevada a chance. Should be worth a small wager at these odds.
5) Tennessee +27.5 ... Oh hell yeah. Give me the Vols all day long in this situation. The Ducks have the public enamored like no team in years. 19-25% going against Oregon.. that's me.
6) Purdue +20.5 ... ND in a let down spot... only 22% on the boilermakers.
7) ASU +5.5 .... I LOVE the earliest and latest games on the card. Public bets at the end of day trying to recoup losses. Classic Trap. Only 21-27% giving the sun devils a chance and I see that figure going down as game time nears.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[wiffleball whizz]

How can you post against the public plays on a weds when all the money comes in on Saturday?

[baconswitchfarm]

I have Louisville giving 12.5 and think its a gift.

[hugh]

Whiff... the games and plays I posted were early leans and the ones I will be targeting later.. not official plays. Plus, because of all the early action on these big televised games the public percentages really don't change very much.
For example.. Kentucky +13.5 is still at 9% and Tenn +27.5 is 21%
I'll be posting again tomorrow.

[wiffleball whizz]

Whiff... the games and plays I posted were early leans and the ones I will be targeting later.. not official plays. Plus, because of all the early action on these big televised games the public percentages really don't change very much.
For example.. Kentucky +13.5 is still at 9% and Tenn +27.5 is 21%
I'll be posting again tomorrow.

FYI I love Kentucky Saturday,......can't wait for the famous Louisville 3 and outs on the road.........give me some winners Hugh!!!!!!

[baconswitchfarm]

There is tons of action on this louisville - uk game. Everyone I talk to elsewhere, loves uk. I am here in lexington . In town we are hoping to keep louisville under 100. There are several local high schools uk would struggle with.We will see.

[wiffleball whizz]

There is tons of action on this louisville - uk game. Everyone I talk to elsewhere, loves uk. I am here in lexington . In town we are hoping to keep louisville under 100. There are several local high schools uk would struggle with.We will see.


Go watch the Louisville Syracuse game last year and let me know how the vile can sleepwalk with the best of them

[hugh]

ATP Week 3 Picks.. officially 5-6 ytd..:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Kentucky +15 (13%)
Nevada +35.5 (25%)
Nebraska -3 (small play.. 31%)
Tenn +28.5 BIG PLAY 22%

That's it.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

























1)Kentucky +14 .... A big state rivalry in the early game? Give me some of that! A lot of the public will be in the red after they get spanked taking Louisville here. Only 7-8% are taking the Wildcats and the points. Big Play for me.
2) Nebraska -4.5 .... getting around 25% of public cash. After seeing this bruin team in action I don't know why they are getting hyped. Taking the Huskers minus the points for this ABC show case.
3) Alabama.. if you need an action play go with the Tide.
4) Nevada +32-33 ... only 1/5 bettors giving Nevada a chance. Should be worth a small wager at these odds.
5) Tennessee +27.5 ... Oh hell yeah. Give me the Vols all day long in this situation. The Ducks have the public enamored like no team in years. 19-25% going against Oregon.. that's me.
6) Purdue +20.5 ... ND in a let down spot... only 22% on the boilermakers.
7) ASU +5.5 .... I LOVE the earliest and latest games on the card. Public bets at the end of day trying to recoup losses. Classic Trap. Only 21-27% giving the sun devils a chance and I see that figure going down as game time nears.

[wiffleball whizz]

ATP Week 3 Picks.. officially 5-6 ytd..:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Kentucky +15 (13%)
Nevada +35.5 (25%)
Nebraska -3 (small play.. 31%)
Tenn +28.5 BIG PLAY 22%

That's it.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

























1)Kentucky +14 .... A big state rivalry in the early game? Give me some of that! A lot of the public will be in the red after they get spanked taking Louisville here. Only 7-8% are taking the Wildcats and the points. Big Play for me.
2) Nebraska -4.5 .... getting around 25% of public cash. After seeing this bruin team in action I don't know why they are getting hyped. Taking the Huskers minus the points for this ABC show case.
3) Alabama.. if you need an action play go with the Tide.
4) Nevada +32-33 ... only 1/5 bettors giving Nevada a chance. Should be worth a small wager at these odds.
5) Tennessee +27.5 ... Oh hell yeah. Give me the Vols all day long in this situation. The Ducks have the public enamored like no team in years. 19-25% going against Oregon.. that's me.
6) Purdue +20.5 ... ND in a let down spot... only 22% on the boilermakers.
7) ASU +5.5 .... I LOVE the earliest and latest games on the card. Public bets at the end of day trying to recoup losses. Classic Trap. Only 21-27% giving the sun devils a chance and I see that figure going down as game time nears.


Sun devils 5 and a pip :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: lol:


Maybe all that late wisky $$$$$$$ will drive the sun devils to PLUS 7 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Are you betting with Santa clause or the Easter bunny :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Try and get the whizz down with ASU plus 5.5 ill love you for life!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Made my night!!!!!

[Marshall Bennett]

Miss. St. +6.5 (Auburn)

Wisconsin +5 (Arizona St.)

Texas -2 (Ole Miss)

[Robert Goren]

Where do you get the % of the amount money bet on each team?

[PICSIX]

Where do you get the % of the amount money bet on each team?

http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart#.UjRiXGt5mSM

And here:

http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html

[wiffleball whizz]

Where do you get the % of the amount money bet on each team?


I know vegas insider shows them but there not accurate

It's based on how much Money comes in........if its 90-10 percent that means $90 of the $100 bet on the game 1 side is getting all the action.....again irrelevant as I've went the other way my whole life and its over blown

With that said I've been burning the midnight oil looking to find ASU + 5.5.....still haven't found it.....did find them -4.5 -20 though

[PICSIX]

ATP Week 3 Picks.. officially 5-6 ytd..:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Kentucky +15 (13%)
Nevada +35.5 (25%)
Nebraska -3 (small play.. 31%) Go Big Red, Go Big Red....
Tenn +28.5 BIG PLAY 22%

That's it.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:


Huskers

[Robert Goren]

ATP Week 3 Picks.. officially 5-6 ytd..:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Kentucky +15 (13%)
Nevada +35.5 (25%)
Nebraska -3 (small play.. 31%)
Tenn +28.5 BIG PLAY 22%

That's it.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Must be a lot of Nebraska money going on UCLA. Nobody here but diehard like the Huskers and even the diehards are worried. Nebraska hasn't played well against mobile QBs in the Pelini era.

[hugh]

Last week was not a good one. Here is what I'm targeting this week.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
NC State +14 (14%) .. prime time Thursday night.
UCONN +18 (12%)
That's all for now.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Marshall Bennett]

Georgia -33 (N.Texas)
Va.Tech -8.5 (Marshall)
Baylor -29 (La.-Monroe)
Texas A&M -28.5 (Smu)
Kansas St. +6 (Texas)
Stanford -6.5 (Arizona St.)
Texas Tech -27 (Texas St.)
Missouri even (Indiana)

[Valuist]

Where do you get the % of the amount money bet on each team?

sportsbookspy.com has the percentage of tickets written for each side and total. It doesn't have total money wagered.

But, if you see team A has 70% of the tickets written but the line has moved against them, you know team B has been getting the sharp money.

[Marshall Bennett]

From my picks one would gather I'm expecting a "blowout" weekend. Several contenders no doubt. :)

[hugh]

After a 2-0 week I'm clawing back into positive territory. Hopefully this week I'll get there. Here are the against the public picks for the week. Enjoy and let's make some cash. (8-9 on the year)
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Once again these ATP plays work best for the big games.. usually nationally televised. This is where the books make their money.

Virginia +19.5.... Going agsint a talented Okie State team, but this IS the early game. So an ATP play is warranted here. The public will wake up, bet with their hearts not heads and be in the hole early. There is value here. Getting 24%.

BC +23.5 ... Only getting 16% of the public money. Small play on an ABC game.

ND +3.5 ... Going against the Sooners. This is a funny game with the Irish only getting 25% of the betting capital. Usually their die hard fans come out in force... I think ND pulls an outright win in this situation. NBC.

AZ +10 ... This is my favorite play tomorrow. The Wildcats are only attracting 1 in 5 bettors, but have a fantastic shot at winning this game. My upset play of the day. Taking the spread AND ML.

Arkansas +16 ... Johnny football in a let down spot. This Razorbacks team isn't that bad, but is only getting a paltry 16% of the action. Big play for me.

USC +4.5 .... Interesting game late. I think USC gets it done. Taking the points with 1/4 of the bettors.

So yeah... a LOT of action this week after a slow week last time out.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Don't have the time to do full write ups. Had a good week last time out. This is who I'm on tomorrow. Everyone plus the points.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
Syracuse,
Tenn,
Kansas State,
Miss State,
TCU,
Northwestern,
Washington
Good luck.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp: