Race Replays

[LOU M.]

Here in Chicago there are several ways to view previous races. Don't have any expertise in this area of watching races from an analytical standpoint. If any one would care to share some of their insights it would be appreciated.

Thanks, Lou M.

[TravisVOX]

If you haven't read already, I really recommend reading Steve Davidowitz's Betting T-Breds. His first chapter talks about watching races...I typed up my notes from it, they are below. Some might be direct quotes, and if they are, I apologize. But the book isn't nearby where I could check.

Chapter 1 ¡V Through the Looking Glasses

To learn how to monitor all aspects of a horse race, not just the particular horse you¡¦ve wagered on, practice by identifying the following when the field hits the turn:

1. The fastest moving horses.
2. Horses in trouble
3. Horses on the rail
4. Horses running wide

If you¡¦re unable to identify no more than just a few the first time, don¡¦t be concerned. Using video replays and result charts later on will help to form the overall picture.

The turn is the most important part of the race. It is the place where races are won or lost, the place where jockeys show their skill and commit the atrocious errors, the place where the fan can glean the most knowledge for the future:

On the turn:

„X Every well-meant horse should be making its move or else trying to hold its position.
„X Horses get into the most trouble.
„X Weakly ridden, out of shape or hurt horses can¡¦t make the turns well.
„X A horse might be by far the best, just unable to get out of traffic.

Furthermore, when watching races, one can notice:

„X How a good or bad effort can be explained how a rider uses the whip.
„X Jockeys might show their personal strengths/weaknesses (willingness to move inside, riding a front-runner)
„X A horse that only does its best when given lots of running room.
„X If a horse was clear, or suspiciously placed behind a wall of horses.

Carefully reviewing the action at the start, at specific distances, can provide clues at the way the track is playing. At some tracks, especially races at two turns, horses breaking from the inside post positions may get into their natural stride much quicker than their rivals. This can help identify potential track biases.

[The Hawk]

An important part of watching replays that some tend to overlook is to know the pace scenario of the race. The best way to do this is to make sure to handicap the races for the day while you're watching, and have a set of PP's with you. For example: A seemingly mild late rally might not look significant at first but if the race had very little speed and the winner was uncontested on the lead it's many times a deceptively good effort, better than it may look to others watching the same replay.

[LOU M.]

Thanks for sharing some thoughts.
Lou M.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Some good ideas! I will add: note jockeys who come on and finish very close or win- they know when to move the horse; note at the start which jocks and which trainers consistently try to put their horses in the lead and which ones are willing to move up as the race progresses- I think matching the pace, trip, or track speed to the horse's style is important. I give extra points to connections who can do that!

[Dan Montilion]

Lou M.

Some of my thoughts on race watching...

Watch as many races as possible to start. Don't be too worried about catching everything there is to see.

Next start to try and predict the outcome after the first call.

Continuing on the next step, watch the races after looking at the charts and reading the footnotes. This I assure you will be an eye opener. You are going to be very surprised how different the race actually was run as opposed to print form.

Step four, I would start watching each horses as an athlete and competitor. One does not have to be a vet to notice ugly movers, or horses that are not competitive or flat chicken.

When you do graduate on to making some race notes. Do so with past performances in front of you, not only will all the differing trips, trouble, pace scenarios be noted. Most overlooked is relating trips to a horses form cycle.

Dan Montilion

[Tuffmug]

Watch for Jockeys sitting "chilly" coming down the stretch on a horse who hasn't shortened stride. They are telling you that today was a race workout to prep horse for the NEXT race!

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tuffmug
Watch for Jockeys sitting "chilly" coming down the stretch on a horse who hasn't shortened stride. They are telling you that today was a race workout to prep horse for the NEXT race!

very interesting...... you mean no urging? whip etc?

can you be more specific? anybody else do this?

[LOU M.]

Thanks for the suggestions. I've been trying some of them out. It's not as easy as one would think. Gonna take alot of practice.

Lou M.

[TravisVOX]

More importantly: time. That's most difficult part, is finding the time. It's the 1/2 hour replay show + however many times you rewind and stop/pause to write.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by TravisVOX
More importantly: time. That's most difficult part, is finding the time. It's the 1/2 hour replay show + however many times you rewind and stop/pause to write.

take advantage of on line replays if they're available. my capping is based largely on chart analysis backed up by replay observation, i'm lucky that the tracks i follow offer on line replays. i would hate to think about doing what i do now with video tape!

[TravisVOX]

Online replays are nice, but often times you can't see key and/or subtle occurances. Horses changing leads, jockeys motion/movement. At least with me, despite a good connection, oftem times the scene becomes a touch too blurry.

[Tuffmug]

Just Ralph,

Go back to Tiznow's last race before the BC Classic. This was a classic prep race. McCarron actually was restraining the horse coming down the lane. You will notice at one point that Tiznow pulls his head to the side as if to say "Let me GO!". McCarron very quiet on Tiznow all the way down the lane.