Handicapping hints

[headhawg]

I'm going to Balmoral for some bachelor party preliminaries on Saturday. I've bet harness races many moons ago, but never "handicapped" them. Can someone clue me in to the similarities/differences between harness and thoroughbreds from a handicapper's POV?

Also, any peculiarities of the Balmoral track that I should know about? While this is strictly a recreational jaunt, I'll have more fun if I can win a little bit of cash (I hate losing money). Any useful advice would be appreciated.

HH

[Zman179]

With trotters, trip is more of a factor than with the flats. Mind you, Balmoral is a mile track so it is less of a factor than it would be with a smaller sized track.

Post position is also a little more of a factor at Balmoral since the start of the race is quite close to the clubhouse turn. You can figure to give a little extra consideration to a horse which is moving inwards more than 5 post positions, and vice versa if moving outwards. And Anthony Morgan is by far the best driver there, you can give his mount a little extra consideration if he's driving for the first time.

One thing about Balmoral is that it's a very fair track to run on in which you can win coming off of a bad trip there. The stretch is very long and there's even a passing lane for the final 1/8th of a mile.

And the 10¢ Pick 9 bet is quite popular there (which usually starts with race 3). However your timing is a little off as it was hit on Thursday evening for $63,000 for a 10¢ bet so there's no carryover for Saturday. Still, it's worth putting in a few dimes on it. Too bad it's not available to the majority of simulcast players.

[Exactaman]

Balmoral Saturday night are pretty competitive cards, i'd try to stay away from chalk! i will this saturday and every saturday in fact :) stick to horses with good current form, stay away from heavily bet class droppers/class horses coming off layoffs not showing good recent lines, the crowd seems to bet them a lot there. they are loathe to get off a horse once on, one race i'm looking forward to seeing is the ffa this sat., life sizzles clearly dominated constant change last sat., yet the crowd has been on cc so heavy for so long they will be slow to get off, watch. could be some exacta poss. in there, i like 8 with 2 3 if higher than 7 with 2 3.

a fair bias there but a bit closer favoring, it's really unusual for example for a pair of early leavers to complete an exacta. a bit of pace analysis can help there, if there don't look to be many leavers early speed horses can be a good option, especially if they've gained ground in the stretch recently after leaving. if there look to be a few leavers, closers can be better even from the outside posts. if you don't mind computing last halfs that can be a good way of quickly comparing closing efforts and sifting between the closers.

good luck this sat

[Pace Cap'n]

From out of left field:

A few years back a new simulcast center opened in the area. As the TB tracks began to close in the evening, they would start to show the harness tracks.

Very few people there had ever even heard of harnesss, much less seen it. But by golly, they came to gamble, and it did involve horses. Most just guessed and bet numbers, etc.

Didn't take long for one guy to come up with a "system".

Most races have nine horses. Divide the horses into three groups--1-2-3, 4-5-6, and 7-8-9. Take the low odds from each group. Box in tri. That's it.

As I was snickering, he cashed two tickets for around $600.00. Probably beginners luck. Personally, I've never tried it.

I know you asked for useful advice, but this is all I could come up with. Good luck at the races.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
From out of left field:

A few years back a new simulcast center opened in the area. As the TB tracks began to close in the evening, they would start to show the harness tracks.

Very few people there had ever even heard of harnesss, much less seen it. But by golly, they came to gamble, and it did involve horses. Most just guessed and bet numbers, etc.

Didn't take long for one guy to come up with a "system".

Most races have nine horses. Divide the horses into three groups--1-2-3, 4-5-6, and 7-8-9. Take the low odds from each group. Box in tri. That's it.

As I was snickering, he cashed two tickets for around $600.00. Probably beginners luck. Personally, I've never tried it.

I know you asked for useful advice, but this is all I could come up with. Good luck at the races.

pretty funny pc! sounds like you stumbled onto a surefire path to a large negative return :)

[headhawg]

Wow, I'm sure glad I posted. I thought Balmoral was a 5/8ths track! Thanks all for the information.

One more question with regard to pacing style (early leavers and closers): is it still better to have inside posts regardless, or does being outside compromise one style more than the other?

HH

[sq764]

At Balmoral, it really doesn't matter where you start from, as long as you can close down the lane. The great part of Balmoral racing (and track) is that at the top of the stretch, they fan out 5-6 wide and everyone has a shot down that long lane.

If you are not amn experienced capper, I would simply focus on the horses with the best late pace (best last quarter, comments alluding to them closing late, etc)..

You should cash enough tickets to enjoy yourself.

Good luck!

[Zman179]

Originally posted by headhawg
Wow, I'm sure glad I posted. I thought Balmoral was a 5/8ths track!

It was at one time. For many moons, Balmoral was a 5/8ths track than ran both flats and trotters (the flats were discontinued in the 80's). Later on that decade, they built a mile track to complement the 5/8ths since the mile track didn't have lighting. So when they ran harness matinées on Sundays and Tuesdays (before Illinois simulcasting revenue rules pertaining to the different breeds went into effect), they ran on the mile track. And when they ran night cards on the other days, they used the 5/8ths.

They finally did away with the 5/8ths about 8-10 years ago when they installed a lighting system for the mile track. And daytime harness racing was discontinued after the Illinois Racing Board ruled that all monies bet within the Illinois OTB network would be divided with all daytime proceeds going to flat purses and all nighttime funds going to the trots. That of course has since been changed, but Maywood/Balmoral have since found their niche.

[headhawg]

Thanks again for the help. I had a great time, and did ok at the races. Funny thing -- if I would have just played more "recreationally" I would have done real well! I got conservative and passed races that I (shoulda, woulda, coulda) played. I didn't trust my handicapping skills as I'm not a harness player, and that cost me some nice exotic winners.

It seemed to me that there were a lot of overlays on Sat. Exactaman said that it would be competitive and it sure seemed that way to me. Just wondering if that is typical; I always thought that harness was normally pretty chalky.

[Zman179]

½ mile and 5/8ths tracks tend to be chalky. But 7/8's and mile tracks tend to bring in better prices.

[melman]

Headhawg, just take a look at the Balmoral Park web site and check on the results for the last few months. You will find many nice prices as you do with large track harness. Now the Maywood and other small tracks are another story. If you do good with Turf Racing in t-bred land I think you would do well with the harness. I hear that Balmoral does a very nice job for it's customers. How would you rate it on a scale of 1-10??

[Exactaman]

i'm curious melman, what's the similarity between turf racing and big track harness?

[headhawg]

melman,

I was part of a bachelor party group of about a dozen guys. It cost $35 per head for all you can eat (buffet style) and unlimited beer/wine for four hours. The food was suprisingly good, including prime rib, fried chicken, and even a stir-fry. Service was very good as well.

I would rate it an 8, but more importantly, I would go back! I haven't played "live" at a track in a while, and it was fun. Plus, I didn't feel totally lost handicapping, and felt like I could make money there. You mentioned the connection between t-bred turf and larger harness tracks. I'm assuming you meant because of the stretch run (horses having solid last quarters), but I never thought of the connection between them before. And I do fairly well 'capping turf races.

HH

[melman]

Ex-man and HH

While some turf courses do favor speed I think the majority of turf racing for the t-breds is "trips" and late speed, both of which I find very useful in large track harness. HH glad you enjoyed the visit and rated it an 8.