Are maiden races getting tougher?

[JustRalph]

I am finding that I can't pick maiden races for crap anymore. Seems to be more and more surprises and price horses......but for the life of me I can't see these things anymore.

I know the stats on connections are huge in these races and I can track those, but it just seems to me that some of these winners are more tricky to find than I remember in the past.

Just about ignoring all maidens anymore............. especially in California.

[lamboguy]

the toughest thing to come down the pike in the last decade are places like Fairhill, Palm Meadow and other training facitlites.. if you go to see works like i do, its impossible to keep track of all these places at the same time.

some trainers never work their horses fast either. to me its always important to see what the horse does after the work. i like to see them attack the feed tub, you can figure out how close to fit they are by how much water they drink.

during this Saratoga meet i have only bet 1 2 year old. today i am going to bet on another one. there were horses that i could have bet, but they were Todd's horses and they came with very short prices. there have been years that i bet 10 or more first time starters for the meet. some of them were my own horses though. this year i haven't had that many ready to run or good enough to bet. i had a 3 yo yesterday but he only paid even money. we didn't have any this year in Florida that paid over $6.00. that makes this a very tough go.

[teddy]

One things for sure....Lambo is going to get fat today.....

[teddy]

U could put 5000 in early and cancel 4000 as they load......quite popular these days

[Dave Schwartz]

Ralph,

I actually find them getting easier.

This is especially true since I switched away from watching the toteboard and moved towards trainer stats.

However, currently I do not play any races with FTS.

Dave

[lamboguy]

One things for sure....Lambo is going to get fat today.....
i'm not getting fat today, the horse i wanted to play is going to be 4/5 in the 2nd at the spa..

Ralph is right on this one, its tougher this year than its ever been for me with maidens

i just got $42.00 this week on one of my own at Presque Isles. but i had to run for mcl $7500 at Finger Lakes and then run in an allowance race to get the ticket. Presque Ilse don't have pool size like the spa.

[JustRalph]

Ralph,

I actually find them getting easier.

This is especially true since I switched away from watching the toteboard and moved towards trainer stats.

However, currently I do not play any races with FTS.

Dave

Trainer stats is what I am finding too. More than ever. But like you, rarely playing them now. The prices are unpredictable too. More than ever.

[Exotic1]

i'm not getting fat today, the horse i wanted to play is going to be 4/5 in the 2nd at the spa..

Ralph is right on this one, its tougher this year than its ever been for me with maidens

i just got $42.00 this week on one of my own at Presque Isles. but i had to run for mcl $7500 at Finger Lakes and then run in an allowance race to get the ticket. Presque Ilse don't have pool size like the spa.

You made sure she wasn't going to be a cent over 6/5.

Congrats. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

How many threads this week can lambo make about himself?

[lamboguy]

i'll tell you what, if my post seems to bother you all the time, i will step aside and never post again and let you post to your hearts content. no hard feelings either, i want you to be happy.

[cj]

i'll tell you what, if my post seems to bother you all the time, i will step aside and never post again and let you post to your hearts content. no hard feelings either, i want you to be happy.

It isn't about me being happy. If you want to talk about your horses, GREAT! Seriously, do it. But don't do it by making posts that totally derail threads away from the intended discussion.

[lamboguy]

i wish you the very best

[Stillriledup]

How many threads this week can SRU make about himself?

Fixed that for you. :D

[iceknight]

How many threads this week can lambo make about himself? Maybe you are being jealous as you have no cool stories to tell? Comments like yours are the ones that seem to build up animosity in the board quickly. You may be a "mod" but you are not anyone's king.

[JustRalph]

Maybe you are being jealous as you have no cool stories to tell? Comments like yours are the ones that seem to build up animosity in the board quickly. You may be a "mod" but you are not anyone's king.

:lol:

just for you CJ

[teddy]

i'm not getting fat today, the horse i wanted to play is going to be 4/5 in the 2nd at the spa..

Ralph is right on this one, its tougher this year than its ever been for me with maidens

i just got $42.00 this week on one of my own at Presque Isles. but i had to run for mcl $7500 at Finger Lakes and then run in an allowance race to get the ticket. Presque Ilse don't have pool size like the spa.
Cant believe you told them before the race.... I guess at the spa though an extra $2.00 wont hurt the price :lol:

Seriously... I am never on here anymore but this dude always hits with his mdns...I wish I came back to see his post.

[teddy]

Posting on here is just a really good way to get your mind off real work that pays real money. I have a spot play and I am going to start posting it for fun.. its 8 for 8 winners so far...

NOw that said... mdn races are hard great to bet when the ones that ran are crappy.... they get over bet so often. Even though they never came near the winning par for the race. The public does not know what the winning par time should be. So they bet a horse with a 40 when winners need a 50 on avg... ect...

[cj]

Maybe you are being jealous as you have no cool stories to tell? Comments like yours are the ones that seem to build up animosity in the board quickly. You may be a "mod" but you are not anyone's king.

Yeah, I have no stories to tell...you got me.

[ElKabong]

I am finding that I can't pick maiden races for crap anymore. Seems to be more and more surprises and price horses......but for the life of me I can't see these things anymore.

I know the stats on connections are huge in these races and I can track those, but it just seems to me that some of these winners are more tricky to find than I remember in the past.

Just about ignoring all maidens anymore............. especially in California.

If you're in town next season hit me up. We'll spend a day or 2 at LS looking at horses (maiden races), the maidens are easier to inspect for physicality than the older ones

What I learned in that area, I learned from Diane. When (poster) Boris was in HOU I spent 3 days betting with him down there. Hit some good maiden tickets then, and this season at LS was pretty exceptional (now that 3 trainers don't own the meet anymore). Most of my on track bets happen to be maiden races b/c they're just easier and offer some value

That ability to spot a ready horse in the paddock is muted at home or at the simo.....but you can still pick a good priced maiden winner with that knowledge and experience once in a while on the screen

[CincyHorseplayer]

I always cure myself of the love of mediocre 12 horse fields on turf with maiden races.But I'm still a sucker for mediocre 12 horse maiden fields on turf.Go figure!Maidens are just easier to handicap IMO.And while semi joking,the turf maidens present a lot broader opportunity.I love maidens.

[pondman]

NOw that said... mdn races are hard great to bet when the ones that ran are crappy.... they get over bet so often. Even though they never came near the winning par for the race. The public does not know what the winning par time should be. So they bet a horse with a 40 when winners need a 50 on avg... ect...
Can't imagine utilizing this method for maidens. But I'm guessing we don't bet at the same venue. There are other ways of betting, especially at the high end. I say as a whole there are a number of maiden races that are easy to crush. But you've got to pick your spots.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This time of year you can almost literally play 2nd starters til the wheels come off and make a killing.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe you are being jealous as you have no cool stories to tell? Comments like yours are the ones that seem to build up animosity in the board quickly. You may be a "mod" but you are not anyone's king.Thanks for being the official animosity gauge around here...I've been looking for one for a while...you can't believe how much they want for one on eBay...

[Ocala Mike]

This time of year you can almost literally play 2nd starters til the wheels come off and make a killing.



I've been getting crushed for the past couple of weeks at the Spa. The 10th race exacta of :1: / :7: hopefully gets me back on track for the last week of the meeting. The :7: was a 2TS off a year layoff (not the kind I usually look for), but I got lucky when it ran a bang-up second to one of the figure horses that I used it with.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've been getting crushed for the past couple of weeks at the Spa. The 10th race exacta of :1: / :7: hopefully gets me back on track for the last week of the meeting. The :7: was a 2TS off a year layoff (not the kind I usually look for), but I got lucky when it ran a bang-up second to one of the figure horses that I used it with.

I've been hearing that from a lot of people,especially the guy in the mirror!I was 0fer 2.5 days til races 12 and 14 yesterday I staged a comeback of biblical proportions!!:cool:

[mountainman]

With slot-boosted purses, horsemen now attach greater value to mdns that show any sliver of potential, and seek, especially, to maximize a horse's first win. This mindset results in msw fields wherein it's hard to decipher which lightly-raced runners have genuinely impressed their connections, as opposed to those merely entered in HOPES of improvement.

And with so much stabbing at msw purses, the quality of mdn/clmng fields has slipped lower than ever. Forms littered with sub-zero beyers can now merit consideration in mdn-claimers. Maiden races at any level have just become a complete mess.

[Clocker]

horsemen now attach greater value to mdns that show any sliver of potential, and seek, especially, to maximize a horse's first win.

There must be a lot of them out there, and they are being brought along slowly. This late in the season and it's not unusual to find 2 or 3 first time starters in a MSW for 3 y.o.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Like all races, maiden races are getting tougher, and overall the "value" horse is getting more difficult to find.

Twenty years ago, maiden claimers were my favorite kind of race - easy to handicap and interpret the tote, easy to toss half the field, easy to strategize wagers, and easy to win - with a big factor being that within a few starts, all trainers of maiden claimers were trying to win.

Now, with stats so readily available for breeding and for the trainers, the odds seem very sharp and in line with all data available. Now I find that the only playable races are where a multiple start horse has ability that appears to TOWER above the rest of the field, but has speed figures below par, and FTS or two can beat it - though the play quickly becomes a guess without proper tote support.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Like all races, maiden races are getting tougher, and overall the "value" horse is getting more difficult to find.

Twenty years ago, maiden claimers were my favorite kind of race - easy to handicap and interpret the tote, easy to toss half the field, easy to strategize wagers, and easy to win - with a big factor being that within a few starts, all trainers of maiden claimers were trying to win.

Now, with stats so readily available for breeding and for the trainers, the odds seem very sharp and in line with all data available. Now I find that the only playable races are where a multiple start horse has ability that appears to TOWER above the rest of the field, but has speed figures below par, and FTS or two can beat it - though the play quickly becomes a guess without proper tote support.

I have been fairly frustrated betting in race wagers on precious FTS but I think the best utilization of these type of races are to use multirace wagers covering all the contenders with hints of precocity and/or trainer stats that back it up.I 'm still experimenting but I hit doubles at FG and Sar that were over $200.

[Enigma]

There is money to be made wagering on maiden races.

Pass on all races with FTS runners.

Avoid small-time tracks.

Define the CLASS of each entry.

Scrutinize RECENT form.

Wager one unit to win...two units to place.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

There is money to be made wagering on maiden races.

Pass on all races with FTS runners.

Avoid small-time tracks.

Define the CLASS of each entry.

Scrutinize RECENT form.

Wager one unit to win...two units to place.

I won't argue with your approach, but tossing the First Time Starters in maiden races sure eliminates a lot of races. Even second time starters can be wildly unpredictable.

I can also easily believe a place wagering strategy like you describe helps overall profits. Maiden races are are one of the few times I'll back wheel a horse in the exacta with 'ALL' on top if the price is right, and not just with logical contenders.

[JustRalph]

race 5 at the spa today........

how the hell do you bet this one?

pass

[ten2oneormore]

race 5 at the spa today........

how the hell do you bet this one?

pass

I didn't have it but kicking myself because I didn't.Have been well aware of Clement firsters all meet but for some reason dismissed this one.

C Clement firsters on the turf at this Spa meet are now

5 for 8 with 2 seconds

routes(3 for 5) and a 2nd
sprints(2 for 3) and a 2nd

Blue Pigeon paid $44.80 to win today

[Grits]

See what the pick 4 paid??? Lord have mercy! :faint:

[JustRalph]

Serling called it on the 2 horse.......he said put him in your Tri and Supers to "make some money"

[burnsy]

Trainer stats is what I am finding too. More than ever. But like you, rarely playing them now. The prices are unpredictable too. More than ever.

Agreed, trainers are all you have. The board at Saratoga on the grass maidens means nothing. I don't bet the 2 yo races that much and if i do i have ONE approach. When i sense its a crap shoot i hit the "all" button with the horse i like in the other leg of the double. You can't do this when Pletcher has one of his 4-5 shots on the dirt in there, but in those grass babys i've hit a few big doubles this way. 40, 50 dollar horses that you could never like....the way i handicap i can't take those races seriously. It takes random to a whole new level......even in horse racing terms.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Agreed, trainers are all you have. The board at Saratoga on the grass maidens means nothing. I don't bet the 2 yo races that much and if i do i have ONE approach. When i sense its a crap shoot i hit the "all" button with the horse i like in the other leg of the double. You can't do this when Pletcher has one of his 4-5 shots on the dirt in there, but in those grass babys i've hit a few big doubles this way. 40, 50 dollar horses that you could never like....the way i handicap i can't take those races seriously. It takes random to a whole new level......even in horse racing terms.

I'm not all button but using pedigree in these events I do the same thing.And you are absolutely right about what baby dirt races have been transformed into with Pletcher's absurd 31% 2yo FTS.I beat him once n 8 tries trying to string the precocious babies together on double tickets.I sounded like a drill sergeant when they were coming down the stretch as my 7-1 was beating his yet again 3/5 firster.3/5 on a firster.Everything about that is wrong,even when it's right!Good stuff above man.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Agreed, trainers are all you have. The board at Saratoga on the grass maidens means nothing. I don't bet the 2 yo races that much and if i do i have ONE approach. When i sense its a crap shoot i hit the "all" button with the horse i like in the other leg of the double. You can't do this when Pletcher has one of his 4-5 shots on the dirt in there, but in those grass babys i've hit a few big doubles this way. 40, 50 dollar horses that you could never like....the way i handicap i can't take those races seriously. It takes random to a whole new level......even in horse racing terms.

Grass maidens at Saratoga this year:

Winning favorites: 16/65 (25%)
Second choice wins: 16/65 (25%)
Third choice wins: 8/65 (12%)

Top three public choices winning at a 62% clip.

Grass maidens at Saratoga this yr:

Won by first-time starters: 15 (only 1 went off as the favorite)

[Tom]

OK, turf maidens today - Sar R5 My contenders are 7/2/5

8, nice turf debut, but trainer not very good.
5, drop to a claimer, huge jock switch, stretches out - lots of changes here
2, three good truf numbers, trainer wins off the claim

6, looks like a proven loser to me - too many chances.

[Tom]

Yes, they are getting harder! :D

Winner, I gave no shot. Ran like a champ in this field of chumps.

[JustRalph]

I've been sitting here watching 5 tracks all day

I have bet $2.40 all day. A Super Box for the fun of it. Got beat in a photo for 4th.......

tons of $5-8 dollar horses.......... yep.....having a ball.........

[Tom]

Yup - lots of tracks, lots of bad races.
Tons of horses that should never have been bred.
I've handicapped 35 races so far and bet 3.

So, let's jump back into another pathetic maiden race at Toga!
Toga, R9

1 - more than the blinkers came off this one, if you get my drift! :eek: Might have some early speed, gets a lateral jock switch

3 - horse going nowhere..might already be there
4 - claim back, superior turf figs first two starts for Lisa....got my attention
5 - lots of starts, going backwards, no, wait, he should go back - at least he used to show promise
6 - proven loser - will the recent surgery move him up? What is faster, and R or a G?
8 - improving with every start - just needs more starts! Jock switch will help
and the grass is not a bad thing....I like a bit...watch the board
9 - Say Goodnite, Dick.
10- 1 good race.....time to retire?
11 - always a bridesmaid, but this ain't no wedding, looks more like a funeral.
bottom side of the x's and leave it at at that.

My picks 4,1,8, the 11 rounds out the exotics.
See what the odds are.....I like the 4 the best

[JustRalph]

Toga 9

:11: :10: :8: :4:

he's only 0-22 ?

[JustRalph]

The horse is 0-22 and he's 5/2......... :bang:

[speed]

How bout the 1 at Toga. Over this turf he may get brave on the front end.

[JustRalph]

How bout the 1 at Toga. Over this turf he may get brave on the front end.

the way track has been playing..........might be a good bet :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

4-10...Ralph?

I catch 2-1 and give it back on the x's.
It's like being on the ocean waves....up, down, up, down, you see land, it's'gone. :D