What Do These Winners Have in Common

[Ocala Mike]

Other than the fact that I had none of them today. Each of these horses could have been selected using one readily discernible filter available to anyone with PP's:

DO I AMUSE YOU 28.20
WHY NOT WHISKEY 18.20
FRAC DADDY 16.60
CAPO BASTONE 58.50
WILL TAKE CHARGE 21.20

Further hint: the same filter produced any and all parts of the 5/6/2/8 finish of the Travers for megabucks all around.

I suck on big race days; maybe I'm handicapping too hard. I'll come back and reveal the ONE thing they all had in common after the 14th race if nobody gets it.

Another hint: there was a qualifier in race 13, but it scratched. There are 3 qualifiers in race 14, but I'm tapped out!!!

[cj]

I'll give the Cliff Clavin answer and say "name five horses that have never been in my kitchen".

[Stillriledup]

Other than the fact that I had none of them today. Each of these horses could have been selected using one readily discernible filter available to anyone with PP's:

DO I AMUSE YOU 28.20
WHY NOT WHISKEY 18.20
FRAC DADDY 16.60
CAPO BASTONE 58.50
WILL TAKE CHARGE 21.20

Further hint: the same filter produced any and all parts of the 5/6/2/8 finish of the Travers for megabucks all around.

I suck on big race days; maybe I'm handicapping too hard. I'll come back and reveal the ONE thing they all had in common after the 14th race if nobody gets it.

Another hint: there was a qualifier in race 13, but it scratched. There are 3 qualifiers in race 14, but I'm tapped out!!!

Hmmmm....this could be a great post. Steadily improving Beyer Figs?

[Ocala Mike]

Well, of course, it didn't work in the last - 3 losers. Like everything else at the track or on Wall Street, as soon as you discover something to follow, it's gone.

Anyway, steadily improving Beyers would be too much like handicapping.

Every winner posted, and the 1st 4 finishers in the Travers, had ONE thing in common. ALL OF THEM RAN AT BELMONT PARK ON BELMONT STAKES DAY, 6/8/13. Didn't matter how they ran, just needed that date in their PP's.

Sure, there were losers besides these today, but before you scoff, run a workout with a flat win bet on EVERY horse today that competed at BEL on 6/8/13.

I didn't count them up, but I don't think there were as many as 20, probably more like 16 or 17.

I think this is what they call correlation with no causation, and I certainly wouldn't know how to use something like this in the future, but I wish I would have come up with this before I lost nearly every race on the card!

[JustRalph]

Easy= Horses Ralph didn't bet

[Tom]

You know, back in the day, at FL, we used to keep notes on certain off track days - horses that showed any kind of race over those days were on our watch list. Caught a lot of long shots..but no idea if really made any money long term.
But that was the cutting edge of handicapping in the 70's.

I'll check out the records of all horses that ran Belmont day in their next start.

[Ocala Mike]

I'll check out the records of all horses that ran Belmont day in their next start.



That would be great, Tom, and while you're doing that have your monkey friend check the records for all horses that ran at Belmont on JUNE 9TH as well. I've got a wild idea for tomorrow.

Anyway, I ran a workout for today. Not counting the 1-4 finishers in the Travers and the near miss exacta with CAY TO POMEROY paying $21.40 to show, here is how it looks on betting $2 win, all qualifiers:

Starters: 25 (I underestimated above)
Winners: 5 (20%)
Bet: $ 50.00
Return: 142.70
Win: 92.70
ROI: 2.85 for every 1.00 bet

[Tom]

Last race Belmont, 6/8/13
No other filters

100 starters prior to today

100 18 15 6 (33% exacta finishes)

Bet $200.00
Ret $198.40 .992 roi

Belmont did not run the 9th - they close the day after,

[Ocala Mike]

Tom, shut down the monkey! I just realized that the day after the Belmont, 6/9, was a dark day for some inexplicable reason.

Also, note that it wasn't necessarily the horse's NEXT start to play him out of that date, but the 2nd or 3rd race after (except for CAPO BASTONE).

Obviously, one needs to follow the horses for at least 3 starts after that date.

[Ocala Mike]

Wow! To me, that is an amazing return with NO OTHER FILTERS. Food for thought, indeed!

Thanks to you and the monkey; give him an extra banana for me.

[Ocala Mike]

100 starters prior to today

100 18 15 6 (33% exacta finishes)

Bet $200.00
Ret $198.40 .992 roi



So, not to beat a dead horse, CAPO BASTONE and FRAC DADDY put this into positive ROI territory using just ONE filter. We don't need no steenking DRF, just a calendar!

[cj]

Tom, shut down the monkey! I just realized that the day after the Belmont, 6/9, was a dark day for some inexplicable reason.


Same reason Pimlico doesn't run the day after the Preakness, or Churchill the day after the Derby?

[Ocala Mike]

Same reason Pimlico doesn't run the day after the Preakness, or Churchill the day after the Derby?



Yes, I'm sure that was their reasoning, HOWEVER, I don't think they ever did it before THIS YEAR. Of course, lots of things change in racing, especially at NYRA. I remember we used to pack up from Belmont on the last Monday before Saratoga, move everything up the Thruway, and open at the Spa on Wednesday. Now, they close for the entire week and open on Friday.

Must be the damn unions!

[Grits]

No, Mike, this isn't the first year that Sunday has been dark. Its not been many, only recently, but this one, no, not the first.

BIG PLACE when breaking out all the blowers and mops. :faint:

[Ocala Mike]

BIG PLACE when breaking out all the blowers and mops. :faint:



I know, but it was just as big, 1978-1991, when I worked auditing NYRA for NY State. Used to hate packing up our stuff to go from meet to meet, but I gotta say, NYRA had their ducks in a row back then and they never lost or broke anything.

[davew]

I guess you found a KEY RACE DAY

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, I'm sure that was their reasoning, HOWEVER, I don't think they ever did it before THIS YEAR.They have been dark the day after the Belmont for many years now...

[Ocala Mike]

Thanks, PA and Grits; I should have known that. Anyway, I like davew's idea of a "Key Race Day"; never heard that before.

I scanned today's Spa PP's, and found that there is only ONE qualifier all day. Race 7, :1: CONCEALED.

Already won off the key race day when it broke its maiden at $.90/$1.00 in its next start. Don't like the post, the trainer, or the rider today but the horse should be sitting a perfect third behind the :6: and :7: in there, so made a small W/P bet on it today just because.

Don't get hurt; the trainer's 1/16 this year, and nothing at the Spa.

[iceknight]

So, not to beat a dead horse, CAPO BASTONE and FRAC DADDY put this into positive ROI territory using just ONE filter. We don't need no steenking DRF, just a calendar! you mean "mythical roi"..right? Past performance based back testing does not guarantee future results..

[Ocala Mike]

you mean "mythical roi"..right? Past performance based back testing does not guarantee future results..



Obviously, and ir was just something interesting that I stumbled on to by accident. I did learn a new term, though, which may lead to further research on my part, that is "KEY RACE DAY," thanks to davew and Tom.