Valuist
08-24-2013, 08:47 AM
I thought this was the toughest race in the stakes Pic 4. Went over the race several times, and I'm finally getting some clarity. Pace should be legitimate, unless either Pianist or Laughing scratches.
Laughing- really feel like the last time was the time to bet her. Perfect trip/scenario as Dayatthespa was a late scratch out of the Diana. She saved ground while setting a slow pace. IMO, the most impressive runner from the Diana was Stephanie's Kitten, who was pace compromised. Still, Laughing's win in the Eatontown was very good, prompting a fast pace and putting away Dayatthespa, despite some ground loss on first turn. Leaning against, certainly if she's bet in the neighborhood of 4-1. At 6-1 or so she becomes more interesting.
Pianist- her best shot is to wire but I thought the Pimlico win was over a course where speed was carrying. Her last was over a very tiring, deep Prx course, so it may be forgiven, but she won her first stake over a yielding course. I'd lean against her and probably would need close to 10-1 to use her.
Miz Ida--ships in from CD by way of Prx so I think the casual bettor will overlook her. 7 for 12 lifetime on the turf. Last was solid as she was narrowly beaten despite some ground loss (4 wide second turn). The negatives: before her last (a career high Beyer of 96), her best previous fig was also on a yielding course at KD. She ran a 94 over a firm course in the Mint Julep, but with a perfect trip saving ground on both turns and aided by a strong pace. She seems better as a 4 YO and is useable at odds of at least 6-1.
Centre Court--at one time earlier in year was considered division leader but very uninspiring efforts in the Just a Game and Diana make her a go against, IMO. Maybe the switch from Leparoux to JRV will help, but she figures to take a decent amount of betting and I'm taking a stand against her. She is obviously good enough to win, but IMO not worth the likely overbet price.
Hungry Island--I expect her and Centre Court to be the two betting favorites and HI is more likely to run well, IMO. She always shows up, firm or soft. Too tough to leave off pic 4 tickets and most likely winner.
Somali Lemonade--my first impression of her was she is a soft course specialist, as her last two wins were over yielding courses. She was 6th behind Centre Court in the Lake George last year, but beaten only 1.25 lengths, despite a ton of traffic trouble in the stretch (watch the replay). Arguably, she was the best filly in the Lake George, adjusting for trips. It should be pointed out that Centre Court did beat her three other times last year so she's not the most consistent filly. The thinking could be she's turned the corner as a 4 year old, as her last race was a new top. Both her and Miz Ida were getting out a good 3 paths or so in the stretch last time so that's a concern. Would be a big positive if Rosario was able to ride today. Need 5-1 or better on her.
Hard Not to Like- will be in the 12-1 to 15-1 range. Her Marshua's River in early January would put her in the hunt but not her other races. One of two Matz runners in here and while she's not as fast as Pianist or Laughing, she has enough speed to keep the pace honest, which would help Matz' other runner.
Embarr- 30-1 or so. A third place finish would be a moral victory. Just not good enough to crash the exacta.
Laughing- really feel like the last time was the time to bet her. Perfect trip/scenario as Dayatthespa was a late scratch out of the Diana. She saved ground while setting a slow pace. IMO, the most impressive runner from the Diana was Stephanie's Kitten, who was pace compromised. Still, Laughing's win in the Eatontown was very good, prompting a fast pace and putting away Dayatthespa, despite some ground loss on first turn. Leaning against, certainly if she's bet in the neighborhood of 4-1. At 6-1 or so she becomes more interesting.
Pianist- her best shot is to wire but I thought the Pimlico win was over a course where speed was carrying. Her last was over a very tiring, deep Prx course, so it may be forgiven, but she won her first stake over a yielding course. I'd lean against her and probably would need close to 10-1 to use her.
Miz Ida--ships in from CD by way of Prx so I think the casual bettor will overlook her. 7 for 12 lifetime on the turf. Last was solid as she was narrowly beaten despite some ground loss (4 wide second turn). The negatives: before her last (a career high Beyer of 96), her best previous fig was also on a yielding course at KD. She ran a 94 over a firm course in the Mint Julep, but with a perfect trip saving ground on both turns and aided by a strong pace. She seems better as a 4 YO and is useable at odds of at least 6-1.
Centre Court--at one time earlier in year was considered division leader but very uninspiring efforts in the Just a Game and Diana make her a go against, IMO. Maybe the switch from Leparoux to JRV will help, but she figures to take a decent amount of betting and I'm taking a stand against her. She is obviously good enough to win, but IMO not worth the likely overbet price.
Hungry Island--I expect her and Centre Court to be the two betting favorites and HI is more likely to run well, IMO. She always shows up, firm or soft. Too tough to leave off pic 4 tickets and most likely winner.
Somali Lemonade--my first impression of her was she is a soft course specialist, as her last two wins were over yielding courses. She was 6th behind Centre Court in the Lake George last year, but beaten only 1.25 lengths, despite a ton of traffic trouble in the stretch (watch the replay). Arguably, she was the best filly in the Lake George, adjusting for trips. It should be pointed out that Centre Court did beat her three other times last year so she's not the most consistent filly. The thinking could be she's turned the corner as a 4 year old, as her last race was a new top. Both her and Miz Ida were getting out a good 3 paths or so in the stretch last time so that's a concern. Would be a big positive if Rosario was able to ride today. Need 5-1 or better on her.
Hard Not to Like- will be in the 12-1 to 15-1 range. Her Marshua's River in early January would put her in the hunt but not her other races. One of two Matz runners in here and while she's not as fast as Pianist or Laughing, she has enough speed to keep the pace honest, which would help Matz' other runner.
Embarr- 30-1 or so. A third place finish would be a moral victory. Just not good enough to crash the exacta.