Travers 2013

[redshift1]

One of the better editions in recent years with perfect weather predicted. Verrazano poised for greatness or just another horse with distance limitations?



1. Romansh, J. Castellano, T. Albertrani, 12-1
2. Orb, J. Rosario, S. McGaughey, 4-1
3. Verrazano, J. Velazquez, T. Pletcher, 2-1
4. Golden Soul, R. Albarado, D. Stewart, 20-1
5. Will Take Charge, L. Saez, D. Lukas, 10-1
6. Moreno, J. Ortiz, E. Guillot, 12-1
7. War Dancer, A. Garcia, K. McPeek, 15-1
8. Palace Malice, M. Smith, T. Pletcher, 5-2
9. Transparent, I. Ortiz, K. McLaughlin, 10-1

.

[Valuist]

One of the better editions in recent years with perfect weather predicted. Verrazano poised for greatness or just another horse with distance limitations?



1. Romansh, J. Castellano, T. Albertrani, 12-1
2. Orb, J. Rosario, S. McGaughey, 4-1
3. Verrazano, J. Velazquez, T. Pletcher, 2-1
4. Golden Soul, R. Albarado, D. Stewart, 20-1
5. Will Take Charge, L. Saez, D. Lukas, 10-1
6. Moreno, J. Ortiz, E. Guillot, 12-1
7. War Dancer, A. Garcia, K. McPeek, 15-1
8. Palace Malice, M. Smith, T. Pletcher, 5-2
9. Transparent, I. Ortiz, K. McLaughlin, 10-1

.

Or maybe he's a Monmouth specialist.

[PhantomOnTour]

Once again Orb will get a legit pace to run at - let's see what he's got.

[lamboguy]

like the whole Saratoga meet this year, this will be an amazing race. if you are a horse racing fan, this is what its all about!


so far this meet the handle is up from last year. there are probably more people so interested in it, it will probably be up even more by the end of the meet.

congratulations to NYRA for putting on a great product this year.

[mostpost]

One of the better editions in recent years with perfect weather predicted. Verrazano poised for greatness or just another horse with distance limitations?



1. Romansh, J. Castellano, T. Albertrani, 12-1
2. Orb, J. Rosario, S. McGaughey, 4-1
3. Verrazano, J. Velazquez, T. Pletcher, 2-1
4. Golden Soul, R. Albarado, D. Stewart, 20-1
5. Will Take Charge, L. Saez, D. Lukas, 10-1
6. Moreno, J. Ortiz, E. Guillot, 12-1
7. War Dancer, A. Garcia, K. McPeek, 15-1
8. Palace Malice, M. Smith, T. Pletcher, 5-2
9. Transparent, I. Ortiz, K. McLaughlin, 10-1

.
I'll take what's behind door #1, Monte.

[Stillriledup]

Or maybe he's a Monmouth specialist.

I would imagine the "prerace security" might be a touch stronger at Saratoga for this particular race than there was at Monmouth. But, i don't know for sure, its something to consider.

[mostpost]

Or maybe he's a Monmouth specialist.
Yeah, a Monmouth specialist who won at Gulfstream, Tampa and Aqueduct. And, who will win at Saratoga on Saturday.

[redshift1]

Or maybe he's a Monmouth specialist.


Based on his running line's the better argument is, he's not a CD specialist.

.

[wiffleball whizz]

Let's wait for PA to come on and give his opinion after releasing Verrazano on Haskell day......hopefully he even does one of those homepage selections!!!!!!!

[redshift1]

I would imagine the "prerace security" might be a touch stronger at Saratoga for this particular race than there was at Monmouth. But, i don't know for sure, its something to consider.

Define "prerace security" as a function of performance.

.

[Stillriledup]

Define "prerace security" as a function of performance.

.

I don't understand what you're asking.

[mostpost]

Define "prerace security" as a function of performance.

.
I think he is implying that there were shenanigans pre-Haskell that contributed greatly to Verrazano's victory. SRU has difficulty accepting that he might have picked the wrong horse. Either there was an unfair disqualification or there was an unfair non-disqualification or there was something wrong with "prerace security."

[redshift1]

I don't understand what you're asking.


What's is your OP suggesting.

.

[redshift1]

PP's up.

[mostpost]

Based on his running line's the better argument is, he's not a CD specialist.

.
Insufficient data. Or maybe I should say, too much extraneous information.

[redshift1]

Insufficient data. Or maybe I should say, too much extraneous information.


Distance questions should be settled.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

He is 'pulling an A-Rod'.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

3/8 w 3/8 w 1/2/5/6/7

$5 each $50

3/8 w 1/5/6/7 w 3/8

$5 each $40

$90 total.

[Stillriledup]

I think he is implying that there were shenanigans pre-Haskell that contributed greatly to Verrazano's victory. SRU has difficulty accepting that he might have picked the wrong horse. Either there was an unfair disqualification or there was an unfair non-disqualification or there was something wrong with "prerace security."

No, that's not what i'm implying.

Numerically speaking, it appears that a horse will be able to run a faster number at Monmouth than he might be able to run at other places. There are plenty of examples where Pletcher horses ran HUGE figures at Gulfstream and then didnt run those same figures elsewhere....Monmouth might be a little bit like Gulfstream in the sense that you can run huge figs there and not duplicate them at other places that have "different" prerace medication rules.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I thought he was excellent at Monmouth. I also am not that scared about the distance.

The horse has run one bad race. Could have been the mud, the crowd, the 20 horse field, the pace or maybe the distance.

Interesting how most people have settled on distance as the best explanation. I haven't.

[redshift1]

No, that's not what i'm implying.

Numerically speaking, it appears that a horse will be able to run a faster number at Monmouth than he might be able to run at other places. There are plenty of examples where Pletcher horses ran HUGE figures at Gulfstream and then didnt run those same figures elsewhere....Monmouth might be a little bit like Gulfstream in the sense that you can run huge figs there and not duplicate them at other places that have "different" prerace medication rules.

Tampa Bay and Aqueduct 95 & 101.

[cj]

My biggest opinion so far is that Palace Malice will be a big underlay...not sure on the rest yet.

[wiffleball whizz]

My biggest opinion so far is that Palace Malice will be a big underlay...not sure on the rest yet.

Really? I would think he would be the highest odds of the big 3.....orb gets the casual money and Verrazano gets the smart money....by smart I mean the people seeing the big Haskell win....

I'm exited for the race in any event

[TheEdge07]

Moreno will make sure Verrazano has company,,

PM will be 7/2

[Stillriledup]

Really? I would think he would be the highest odds of the big 3.....orb gets the casual money and Verrazano gets the smart money....by smart I mean the people seeing the big Haskell win....

I'm exited for the race in any event

Im excited for the undercard, amazingly juicy betting races with large fields.

[pondman]

I thought he was excellent at Monmouth. I also am not that scared about the distance.

The horse has run one bad race. .

It's called ducking...nothing wrong with it, but there will be a noticeable difference against the big boys.

Looks like another crowd disappointing blood bath. Hope Orb gets up to 5-1 so I can join the pool. Don't think it will happen. Might have to throw some money across the board on Romansh. He's bred for this high end ruckus. The Travers isn't the type of race to be going down on a favorite. Not out of the question to have a $30 horse hit this one. Prefer horses that have run in the Belmont...

:2: Orb W
:1: Romansh. WPS

[pondman]

Im excited for the undercard, amazingly juicy betting races with large fields.

No kidding. The Travers often ends with a what the heck was that finish.

If I could have any horse (for my backyard) running on Saturday, it would be Mr. Speaker in the 3rd. You'll all be talking his name next year.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Im excited for the undercard, amazingly juicy betting races with large fields.

Count me up in this camp.Although strictly as a fan the Travers this year is going to be a fun one.Thought it was a sorry rendition last year.Toga has been pretty nice to me up until last Saturday.Looking forward to some getback over here!

[Phantombridgejumpe]

He ran in the Haskell, who was he ducking? Where did you want him to run?

Who has Orb raced this summer?

I offer you $100 Orb vs Verrazano straight up.

You interested? PM me anytime.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

What is the buzz on this Mr. Speaker?

[Valuist]

The presence of Moreno makes this interesting. Verrazano's last was very good, but that track tends to be favorable to early speed. In his race before he was facing 3-4 nobodies, including Bethel, who had no business being in a stakes race. Without Moreno, Verrazano might be very tough in here. Orb's last good race on a dry surface was in late March; difficult to use at a low price. I still think Palace Malice merits the favoritism. He is much more versatile than his stablemate. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see a longshot run up for 2nd.

[iceknight]

Im excited for the undercard, amazingly juicy betting races with large fields.
King's Bishop.. heck yeah baby!

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Verrazano didn't set the early pace, and I don't see how sitting second will hurt him this time. JV lets Moreno clear and gently stalks from the 2 path.

[Stillriledup]

King's Bishop.. heck yeah baby!

That's a wild race, 14 horses, its going to be an absolute donnybrook.

[cj]

Verrazano didn't set the early pace, and I don't see how sitting second will hurt him this time. JV lets Moreno clear and gently stalks from the 2 path.

Palace Malice will be right there too prompting I think.

[Stillriledup]

Palace Malice will be right there too prompting I think.

The thing that worries me is that Mike Smith wont attempt to "box in" Vz because of the same trainer. There's certainly a shot that Mike can ride specifically to beat Vz....but he won't. That's a handicapping factor i believe, VZ won't get "pinned in" and he will be permitted to "angle out" to the outside and get a stalking trip with Palice Malice 3 wide behind VZ.

[cj]

The thing that worries me is that Mike Smith wont attempt to "box in" Vz because of the same trainer. There's certainly a shot that Mike can ride specifically to beat Vz....but he won't. That's a handicapping factor i believe, VZ won't get "pinned in" and he will be permitted to "angle out" to the outside and get a stalking trip with Palice Malice 3 wide behind VZ.

I don't think there is a chance in hell Mike Smith is going to let Verrazano get an easy trip. He is going to ride to win.

[Stillriledup]

I don't think there is a chance in hell Mike Smith is going to let Verrazano get an easy trip. He is going to ride to win.

If he was going to ride to win, he will somehow make life difficult for Vz. He can get out there and "lap on" Moreno and when Vz lets Moreno "clear" Mike can get right alongside Vz and pin him in or "shadow" him. I dont see that happening. Mike will "stay out of VZ's way" for the most part.

[PoloUK6108]

I don't think there is a chance in hell Mike Smith is going to let Verrazano get an easy trip. He is going to ride to win.

This. Also Pletcher has spoke much more highly of PM as of late..its every man (and horse) for himself

[Robert Fischer]

Verrazano was the best 3yo going into the Derby. The Derby was a wild one with a tough pace. Verrazano has come back from the break as strong as ever, if not a little stronger. I think he's much the best in the division. I haven't looked ahead to the Breeder's Cup Classic, but he could be tough there as well.

[Stillriledup]

This. Also Pletcher has spoke much more highly of PM as of late..its every man (and horse) for himself

Is it though? If you listen to Mike Smith's interview after the Belmont (the interview by donna on horseback immediately after the race) , he specifically mentions that he rode in a fashion as to not hurt the other Pletcher horses. He said was looking over his shoulder so he wouldnt hang Rosie out too far (riding for Pletcher) so there is precedent where will ride as to not hurt the other horses for a common stable.

[Valuist]

Is it though? If you listen to Mike Smith's interview after the Belmont (the interview by donna on horseback immediately after the race) , he specifically mentions that he rode in a fashion as to not hurt the other Pletcher horses. He said was looking over his shoulder so he wouldnt hang Rosie out too far (riding for Pletcher) so there is precedent where will ride as to not hurt the other horses for a common stable.

I remember that. He did say that stuff. And it doesn't surprise me one bit.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Verrazano was the best 3yo going into the Derby. The Derby was a wild one with a tough pace. Verrazano has come back from the break as strong as ever, if not a little stronger. I think he's much the best in the division. I haven't looked ahead to the Breeder's Cup Classic, but he could be tough there as well.

He may be the best 3YO, but that ain't saying much. I'm still not impressed by this crop, though if Verrazano can move forward and run well this fall, I'll admit I was wrong - or that he's an exception.

Looks like VZ may bounce for the Travers and still win. I'll be shocked if ORB runs well, since he was going in the wrong direction coming into the Belmont, and after competing in all three Triple Crown races, he's an easy toss (along with Will Take Charge) for me. Golden Soul doesn't get an off track, so can't play him. Several of the newer shooters don't have to improve much to be right there, so this race could pay decent unless both Palace Malice and VZ run one-two....

[precocity]

King's Bishop.. heck yeah baby!
14 going at it? thought goldecents was going to be there? think he is running at delmar in a grade 2 on the turf????????????????? :D

[precocity]

One of the better editions in recent years with perfect weather predicted. Verrazano poised for greatness or just another horse with distance limitations?



1. Romansh, J. Castellano, T. Albertrani, 12-1
2. Orb, J. Rosario, S. McGaughey, 4-1
3. Verrazano, J. Velazquez, T. Pletcher, 2-1
4. Golden Soul, R. Albarado, D. Stewart, 20-1
5. Will Take Charge, L. Saez, D. Lukas, 10-1
6. Moreno, J. Ortiz, E. Guillot, 12-1
7. War Dancer, A. Garcia, K. McPeek, 15-1
8. Palace Malice, M. Smith, T. Pletcher, 5-2
9. Transparent, I. Ortiz, K. McLaughlin, 10-1

.
:8: :9: :3: :5: :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

King's Bishop.. heck yeah baby!

KB i've got 3 usable horses

:9: 12/1 ml Overanalyze
:10: 6/1 ml Let Em Shine
:5: 10/1 ml Majestic Hussar

[precocity]

KB i've got 3 usable horses

:9: 12/1 ml Overanalyze
:10: 6/1 ml Let Em Shine
:5: 10/1 ml Majestic Hussar
12/1 ml Overanalyze :ThmbUp: :cool:

[PoloUK6108]

Is it though? If you listen to Mike Smith's interview after the Belmont (the interview by donna on horseback immediately after the race) , he specifically mentions that he rode in a fashion as to not hurt the other Pletcher horses. He said was looking over his shoulder so he wouldnt hang Rosie out too far (riding for Pletcher) so there is precedent where will ride as to not hurt the other horses for a common stable.

You're right, I remember him saying that..but this is the Travers, Pletcher's bread and butter, and I think he'll want to see who is best to point towards the BC. Just my opinion.

[Stillriledup]

You're right, I remember him saying that..but this is the Travers, Pletcher's bread and butter, and I think he'll want to see who is best to point towards the BC. Just my opinion.

So, than you're saying he will permit Vz a great trip just to see how good he is? If he's trying to win at all costs, he can force Vz to the inside after Vz "yields" to Moreno and not let Vz get to the outside. I feel that there's no way he will box in Vz, he will go wide and let Vz get a comfy stalking trip.

[PoloUK6108]

No, I just think if I was a jock I wouldn't care who i was causing to have a bad trip if it meant I was going to win, even a stablemate. But thats me, I dont know squat :D

However, jocks often don't follow trainers' instructions at all. Works out in their favor sometimes, too.
And to be clear, i like Palace Malice or Orb in the Travers, not Vz.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Nobody took me up on my VZ vs Orb play...

Maybe they are ducking me?

[Stillriledup]

No, I just think if I was a jock I wouldn't care who i was causing to have a bad trip if it meant I was going to win, even a stablemate. But thats me, I dont know squat :D

However, jocks often don't follow trainers' instructions at all. Works out in their favor sometimes, too.
And to be clear, i like Palace Malice or Orb in the Travers, not Vz.

This goes beyond instructions. Pletcher is never going to actually verbalize to Smith "hey, help out my other horse" but being the savvy veteran he is, Smith knows the competition, he knows Vz is "todds other horse" and its understood that he doesnt do anything to compromise that horse on purpose.

[depalma113]

Nobody took me up on my VZ vs Orb play...

Maybe they are ducking me?

Of course they are ducking you. They know deep down inside that Orb was the benefactor of the Derby's suicide pace.

[Robert Fischer]

Of course they are ducking you. They know deep down inside that Orb was the benefactor of the Derby's suicide pace.

Could be reasonable to try to fill out vertical exotics with Moreno, Romansh, and Transparent rather than Orb.


Orb's still a danger to come off the bench in peak condition and be a factor.

[precocity]

think orb will come in 4th or 5th? just saying.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

I think 4th or 5th is correct for Orb.

I only think is win % is about 10%, so no value there for me.

[Rex Phinney]

I wasn't buying Verrazano before the derby and I'm not buying him now.

Palace Malice just won on this track, couple that with his obvious willingness to run all day and he makes an easy choice over Verrazano.

With Orb ready to clean up after any possible speed duel I just don't see a scenario where Verrazano wins.

[classhandicapper]

I don't have any special insights into the race, but this is what I generally think of the horses in no special order.

1. Verrazano is obviously very talented and ran very well in the Haskell, but I'm suspicious of his ability to get 10F in a highly competitive high quality race. If he wins tomorrow, I'm going to make a huge bet against him in the Classic because I don't think he can't get 10F after taking pot shots from horses of the quality of Game on Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic etc... and then having to hold off Grade 1 closers.

2. I thought Orb was the best 3yo going into the Derby and I still think that even though he disappointed in his next 2 races. I don't think he got lucky and took advantage of a pace meltdown in the Derby. Sometimes the best horse just also happens to get a good pace setup.

The Preakness was not an ideal setup for him. He was inside for part of the race on a day when the inner paths were not ideal. So the race was not as bad as it looked.

He made a huge move in the Belmont, but hung badly. However, that was a kind of fluky track and he wouldn't be the first closer to make a move and not be able to follow through because he really doesn't want 12F. Most US based horses don't want 12F.

The main problem for him that I see is that we KNOW that several of these horses have moved forward since April/May and we don't know if he has. He could run right back to his peak spring form and it probably won't be good enough. So you need a little premium in the price for the unknown probability of him moving forward like the others even if you've liked him a lot as a horse (as I have).

3. Palice Malice had a series of tough trips late winer/early spring and was pushed into the Blue Grass for earnings. That masked his real ability until the Belmont. (I used him in the Derby and Belmont). He's solid and likely to run a good race.

4. Romansh and Transparent are high quality later developers from great barns. Either could move forward further tomorrow and move to the top of the division. I think I liked Romansh a little better last time off the trip, but they are similar and both likely to get better.

5. Will Take Charge fired a couple of good races, but he hasn't been consistent enough for me to think he's as likely as the others to fire his "A" race even if that could get him into the thick of it.

6. Moreno is going to take some heat at some point so I have to think 10F will be a challenge against these unless the track is biased.

7. War Dance is too speculative for me.

8. Gold Soul is not horrible, but he had a perfect trip in the Derby and was terrible in the Haskell.

To me, this race is mostly about the board because I don't see any hidden value on any of the major horses. I'll probably take a shot against Verrazano if they make him a big favorite and hope he doesn't want the 10F after being engaged. I'll probably spread around. If I'm surprised and he doesn't get bet heavily, I'll probably root for him so I can bet against him in the Classic.

[Cratos]

I go to Saratoga for the entire meet, but I enjoy the meet because of 3 races, The Whitney, The Travers, and the Personal Ensign; and this weekend I will be on cloud nine because I will get both the Travers and The Personal Ensign.

Therefore let’s go the Travers and see what might happen; at least as I see it.

After the Jim Dandy I posted on this forum that Palace Malice had a “stunningly awesome” performance and I will stick by that assertion even more today because after reviewing the race again and calculating the cumulative SSRA for the race I am even more impressed.

In that race, Palace Malice cut the 1-1/8m in 1:47.37 on a surface whose SSRA was -.72 seconds. This give Palace Mace an adjusted time of 1:46.65 which is faster than the 1-1/8m Curlin winner’s time of 1:49.52 adjusted to 1:48.48 by TWO SECONDS.

Also if you throw in for comparison The Whitney Handicap (also at 1-1/8m) for older horses in which Cross Traffic stopped the timer at 1:47.89, but he had a speed resistance favoring track that day of +.51 seconds which gives him an adjusted time of 1:48.40.

For clarification, SSRA stands for Surface Speed Resistance Adjustment and it is taken on a per foot travel during the race by the horse. I used this metric because after studying and conferring with some people whose analysis I respect I came to understand that a racehorse speed is affected incrementally on a per foot basis by resistance and it is the cumulative effect of that resistance that changes the horse’s final time.

But back to the Travers because there are other horses that should be considered starting with my favorite, Orb. I been a supporter of Orb throughout his 3yo campaign, but I don’t see him getting past this bunch because of the speed of the race.

Verrazano just doesn’t excite me and his win in the Haskell became suspect for me after Oxbow pulled up injured.

With the exception of Will Take Charge I don’t see the rest of the field being in the same class as the “big four”: Palace Malice, Orb, Verrazano and Will Take Charge.

However I believe that Moreno will hurt Verrazano more than Palace Malice and both Orb and Will Take Charge will benefit from the upfront battle, but they will not catch Palace Malice and if any horse does it will be Will Take Charge.
I will only play the race if I get 3-1 or better on Palace Malice.

If I was an exacta player I would lay $20.00 on Palace Malice/Orb top and bottom and Palace Malice/Will Take Charge top and bottom for a total of $80.00

Picks:
Palace Malice
Orb
Will Take Charge (he might take it all)

[Tom]

I don't think Mike is coming all the way across the country to not ride 110% to win no matter what.

[Robert Fischer]

I've been wrong before, but I think(the gameplan/most likely scenario will be) Palace Malice will get a good ride, setting up near the pace, in position to pass Moreno and then finish as well as possible.

He beat Moreno last time, He won 2 in a row, I don't expect any rodeo riding. Sit a good trip and have a good shot at another check.

Verrazano is a superstar horse. Smith would need a lobotomy if he starts "boxing in" or race-riding Verrazano. Verrazano's longevity(or eventual lack) will be the factor that cements his ultimate legacy, but he's a LeBron James type standout athlete. He's just far superior to these horses.

Moreno has a possibility of benefiting from the scenario.
Smith on Palace Malice simply wants to pick up the pieces and he doesn't want a fast pace. If the pace does happen to be moderate, Moreno can benefit from that pace, and hang around and hit the board if he isn't too cheap.

[Stillriledup]

I've been wrong before, but I think(the gameplan/most likely scenario will be) Palace Malice will get a good ride, setting up near the pace, in position to pass Moreno and then finish as well as possible.

He beat Moreno last time, He won 2 in a row, I don't expect any rodeo riding. Sit a good trip and have a good shot at another check.

Verrazano is a superstar horse. Smith would need a lobotomy if he starts "boxing in" or race-riding Verrazano. Verrazano's longevity(or eventual lack) will be the factor that cements his ultimate legacy, but he's a LeBron James type standout athlete. He's just far superior to these horses.

Moreno has a possibility of benefiting from the scenario.
Smith on Palace Malice simply wants to pick up the pieces and he doesn't want a fast pace. If the pace does happen to be moderate, Moreno can benefit from that pace, and hang around and hit the board if he isn't too cheap.

Many on this thread are saying that Smith will do 'whatever it takes" to win and im disputing that and saying he's going to not do anything to compromise the chances of Vz even though it might be beneficial to try and keep Vz bottled up if he can get that opportunity.

[Robert Fischer]

...it might be beneficial to try and keep Vz bottled up if he can get that opportunity.

The fact that Smith is confident that he can beat Moreno(the likely pace setter) straight up, plays against that a little bit.

If Verrazano is good enough and fires, Verrazano wins. If Verrazano doesn't fire(distance limitation?) - Palace Malice gets a great chance to win.

It's a great position to be in, and too much race-riding could backfire for both horses.

[classhandicapper]

I think Smith is going to sit off Moreno and Verrazano in 3rd and make a move outside of them middle to late turn. My guess is that Velasquez allows Moreno to take the lead and then switches to the outside to stalk.

I don't see anything special in the setup of this race. The pace should be honest, competitive, and give everyone a shot.

[Ocala Mike]

Going with the improving 3-yo, :10: .

[Stillriledup]

I think Smith is going to sit off Moreno and Verrazano in 3rd and make a move outside of them middle to late turn. My guess is that Velasquez allows Moreno to take the lead and then switches to the outside to stalk.

I don't see anything special in the setup of this race. The pace should be honest, competitive, and give everyone a shot.

Right, that's what's going to happen....Smith will be losing extra ground because he's going to permit Vz to get to the outside.

[LAP_520]

8/23/2013

Rosario tossed from his mount .... noticeable limp when put on cart to come off the track...

Update:

Joel Rosario is "reported" to have a broken bone in the left foot. He will consult with a doctor tomorrow morning. He may be taken off his HUGE mounts this weekend.

[Stillriledup]

8/23/2013

Rosario tossed from his mount .... noticeable limp when put on cart to come off the track...

Update:

Joel Rosario is "reported" to have a broken bone in the left foot. He will consult with a doctor tomorrow morning. He may be taken off his HUGE mounts this weekend.

Jeez, that's rough. He's going to miss Pacific Classic mounts too.

[ManU918]

Going with the improving 3-yo, :10: .

I'll guarantee this... You wont lose money... Given that there are only 9 horses running.

[Aner]

Xpressbet puts out a free wagering guide for major races, including the Travis. Not much of a surprise they concentrate on the big three - Orb, Palace Malice and Verrazano. I thought Verrazano would be a front runner, Palace Malice a presser, and Orb a deep closer. However this info from John Velazquez has me reconsidering how the race will flow.


John Velazquez summed up his job in today’s Travers. “I have to manage my horse, I can’t overdo it in front and I can’t forget about the horse behind me. I’ve got to watch both of them. Palace Malice in front and Orb behind. I’ve got to find the happy medium in there somewhere.”

At this stage in the summer, championship honors are still up for grabs while running styles are firmly established. Moreno, third in the Jim Dandy, is the speed. Breaking outside him, Mike Smith will stalk aboard Jim Dandy winner Palace Malice. Velazquez, breaking from post 3 aboard Verrazano, will attempt to get outside, stalking just off Palace Malice. As Velazquez said, with an eye on Palace Malice and an ear on Orb. Joel Rosario, breaking from post 2 aboard Orb, will keep it simple, lag back and try to make one run. Velazquez won’t make that easy, “I want to get outside and get him where I want him.” He seemed to be talking about Verrazano and Orb all at the same time. A brilliant race, a tactical gem.

Looks to me that without any front pressure Moreno may get brave.

[PhantomOnTour]

If I am still alive in my Pick 4 ticket I will be singled to Palace Malice.
Must spread a lot early and this race looks like the least wide open of the big four.
Call me stubborn, but I will try to beat Verrazano (again)...it seems every time he wins he catches a break:
Wood Mem pace was a crawl and he persevered
Itsmyluckyday pulled up in the Pegasus
Oxbow was injured in the Haskell (although I will admit no one was beating V that day)
Last time he ran tough the whole was at Tampa Bay.

I hear ya, the Haskell was spectacular and he ran pretty fast the whole way.
But I don't see him cruising to the front whenever he's ready with a tough Moreno and very tough PM challenging him.
Moreno will relent but I think PM will put him to the test...one that I hope he fails.
Only Orb's sloppy pace collapse Derby is good enough to win this.
Will Take Charge never seems to run two good ones in a row, but it's Lukas 2nd time over the track...hmmm...wiseguy horse will be an underlay.
The Godolphin runners?....an outside shot, but I need a very good price before playing. Like Transparent the best of the two.

[Stillriledup]

I would suggest for anyone to "advance bet" some of the stuff you really like, you know how these ADW's seem to 'crash" on big days. Get down if you love a horse.

[Stillriledup]

I've been wrong before, but I think(the gameplan/most likely scenario will be) Palace Malice will get a good ride, setting up near the pace, in position to pass Moreno and then finish as well as possible.

He beat Moreno last time, He won 2 in a row, I don't expect any rodeo riding. Sit a good trip and have a good shot at another check.

Verrazano is a superstar horse. Smith would need a lobotomy if he starts "boxing in" or race-riding Verrazano. Verrazano's longevity(or eventual lack) will be the factor that cements his ultimate legacy, but he's a LeBron James type standout athlete. He's just far superior to these horses.

Moreno has a possibility of benefiting from the scenario.
Smith on Palace Malice simply wants to pick up the pieces and he doesn't want a fast pace. If the pace does happen to be moderate, Moreno can benefit from that pace, and hang around and hit the board if he isn't too cheap.

Moreno is going to get blown up and lose by a mile, he's never even been close to carrying 126 against real horses and going wire to wire under pressure from monsters at a mile and a quarter is asking a lot. Ego got the best of Guillot and owners here, this is how you can ruin a nice horse. With one dimensional front runner types, you have to be more careful managing them than managing one dimensional closers..if a horse like this gets blown up and loses by 40 lengths, that's not what you want to see..if Moreno gets passed on the far turn, he's not hitting the board and he's going to be eased in the lane.

[Some_One]

Little talk of Orb in this thread, think it might be possible to get a 5 or 6-1 price on the Derby winner?

[JustRalph]

If the track stays the same as Friday, you better be up front

[depalma113]

Verazzano is a beast. He leaves this 3 year-old crop in his wake today.

[depalma113]

Verrazano

[Robert Fischer]

Moreno is going to get blown up and lose by a mile, he's never even been close to carrying 126 against real horses and going wire to wire under pressure from monsters at a mile and a quarter is asking a lot. Ego got the best of Guillot and owners here, this is how you can ruin a nice horse. With one dimensional front runner types, you have to be more careful managing them than managing one dimensional closers..if a horse like this gets blown up and loses by 40 lengths, that's not what you want to see..if Moreno gets passed on the far turn, he's not hitting the board and he's going to be eased in the lane.

I think you may be right about Moreno.

It looks like a hard race to cash in on vertical exotics.

Palace Malice looks like the 2nd best horse.
Orb is really hit or miss. He could run well and compete for place with his A game.
Transparent - I just have a feeling that he's better than Romansh, trip and all.
I'm not crazy about using Will Take Charge.
:3:/:2::8::9: ?
Probably just focus on Verrazano.

[wiffleball whizz]

Come on PA realease your travers pick!!!!!! U nailed the Haskell!!

[PaceAdvantage]

You're funny Whiz...I don't really have one horse I like here...

I think this early pace will be tougher for Verrazano and his price won't be a bargain at all, so he's a toss on the win bet end of things. I don't like Palace Malice much in this spot either.

There are three or four horses I am looking at here, all longshots of sorts, along with my betting line. I may just bet the two biggest overlays among these four, as I'm fairly certain all four will be over my line...sorry I can't provide any more insight...lol

:9: 4-1
:1: 9-1
:7: 14-1
:4: 17-1

[Tom]

Little talk of Orb in this thread, think it might be possible to get a 5 or 6-1 price on the Derby winner?

I make Orb 25-1 at best - he has zero shot.
Might as well let me make few buck on the side and pony Palice Malice out of the paddock.

Two types of horse will have a shot in this race - those with high early speed and those with more early speed.

[wiffleball whizz]

Friends caught wind I was going to track to make a play in travers they each gave me 100 to bet orb to win.......one can only guess what I'm thinking when i dont like orb for a penny lol: :lol:

I think it's all palice malice.....raced very well coming out of both nyra detention barns providing palice malice last Saratoga win was a strict prerace barn like the belmont

[ManU918]

Friends caught wind I was going to track to make a play in travers they each gave me 100 to bet orb to win.......one can only guess what I'm thinking when i dont like orb for a penny lol: :lol:

Sit on it.

[wiffleball whizz]

Sit on it.

They had the balls to say bring home the ticket if it loses....would love to book it believe me when I tell you!!!!!

Orb is otb today I'll have them betting Palice malice by the time I get to the track.....is orb gonns be 4/1 or more?!?

[olddaddy]

:7: I would have figured that it should have run last week in the secretariat. Ill take a flyer on it.

[redshift1]

Exacta Box

Verrazano
Palace Malice
Will Take Charge
Transparent

Like Verrazano on the speed favoring track.

[Stillriledup]

Exacta Box

Verrazano
Palace Malice
Will Take Charge
Transparent

Like Verrazano on the speed favoring track.

I think that races at a mile and an eighth or longer, almost there's no bias for those races, that's just my opinion, you can close in there, especially if Moreno and Vz are duking it out on the far turn. Im tossing Vz and hoping for the best.

[Tom]

Palice Malice - looks great in his last three race figs.
We will talking about him all of October.

[PhantomOnTour]

They had the balls to say bring home the ticket if it loses....would love to book it believe me when I tell you!!!!!

Orb is otb today I'll have them betting Palice malice by the time I get to the track.....is orb gonns be 4/1 or more?!?
Go out on a limb...bet Palace Malice to win with their money and they will forgive you when you bring home the winnings :)

[Stillriledup]

Why is Vz 8-5? He's so hyped, why not 3-5? After all, he's a "sure winner", right?

[redshift1]

Orb 5/2 ?????

[Robert Fischer]

Orb 5/2 ?????

i can't see it, but Shug has him in great shape physically.

[wiffleball whizz]

Why is Vz 8-5? He's so hyped, why not 3-5? After all, he's a "sure winner", right?

Theres no gifts in horse racing....if it looks to good to be true it probably is....

Wasn't orb the next triple crown winner after the derby? Another steal at 5/2...that is too good to be true.....

Either one won't get a penny of my money....stone dead on the board IMO...

The smart money is staying away here....board indicates the 5 or the 8....

[CincyHorseplayer]

Litfin had this to say today,"of the 26 races at 2 turn routes through the Alabama 11 were within 2 lengths of the lead.Of the 5 winners to make up 5 or more lengths,2 occurred on the anti-speed bias of 8/9"

Today I'd add anybody wide doesn't have much of a chance either,they hit the wall on the outside even on turf.That leaves us with the 1-3-6-8-9(don't think the 7 will take to the surface).8-9 could be hurt by a wide trip,remain should clear.Of the newcomers the stamin indexes,sire/damsire are;

1=2-2

6=1-1

9=2-2

(7=2-3)

Can't say we'll get a price unless we believe Moreno will wire it.His speed figure is soft when pushed.

[TheEdge07]

Down for the day...:(

Ill make a win bet on Transparent use him in exotics and pick 3's...

[redshift1]

PM taking late money

[PhantomOnTour]

Tri:
8
1-2-3-9
1-2-3-5-7-9

1-9
8
1-2-3-5-7-9

win:
9

[TexasDolly]

I like the # 5 in this spot for a wp, GL everybody
TD

[CincyHorseplayer]

Hell with it,I'm not looking for the Curlintwo to take big steps after topping out off layoff.Take a small shot with :6: as lone speed and top stamina rank.Odds are absurd and so has my day been!

[RXB]

I like Palace Malice.

[Robert Fischer]

:3: Verrazano

$$$$ WIN

[Robert Fischer]

wow :bang:

[wiffleball whizz]

Orb :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Lukas baby? Good to see...definitely good to see...

[Tom]

Will Take Charge - not too close to call.
Where the hell was PM early on?
Orb surprised me - but I still say he will never win another stake.
Ver-whozzit?

Every time I bet WTC he oinks up the track. I don't bet hem and he turns into a horse. Never thought he could put two good races together.

[TheEdge07]

Verrazano more sizzle the steak
Mike Smith whats your plan in the Travers speed and sit last?
Orb hung like a cheap suit.

[mostpost]

Nothing happened like expected for the big three. Orb up close. Palace Malice almost last at the beginning. And Verrazano? He never ran. I don't think the distance had anything to with it. He never looked like he was going to win.

[PaceAdvantage]

It sucks when I don't like the favorites at all and still fail to cash...

[PhantomOnTour]

Lukas baby? Good to see...definitely good to see...
Perhaps my favorite Saratoga angle ever is Lukas 2nd start of the meet on the dirt.
I let this one get away, and frankly, I was rooting for Moreno who is owned by local Cajun boy Mike Moreno...great job by both connections.

When Palace Malice kind of lost his footing at the start the race was all Moreno's to lose.
Really impressed the way the winner surged late to get it.

[tonypp]

I think you may be right about Moreno.

It looks like a hard race to cash in on vertical exotics.

Palace Malice looks like the 2nd best horse.
Orb is really hit or miss. He could run well and compete for place with his A game.
Transparent - I just have a feeling that he's better than Romansh, trip and all.
I'm not crazy about using Will Take Charge.
:3:/:2::8::9: ?
Probably just focus on Verrazano. lol

[iceknight]

Lukas baby? Good to see...definitely good to see...
Well MORENO ran like Verrazano ran the Haskell.. and then WTC did a good run like Jim Dandy but squeaked past at the wire

[PaceAdvantage]

Lukas was 1-40 coming into this race? Damn...well...at least he won the big one.

[RXB]

Mike Smith whats your plan in the Travers speed and sit last?


Palace Malice played bumper car with his starting stall and that was that.

[TheEdge07]

It sucks when I don't like the favorites at all and still fail to cash...

Oxbow out
Will Take Charge in

[menifee]

Mike Smith whats your plan in the Travers speed and sit last?



Mike Smith is unreal. Wtf was that ride.

[PhantomOnTour]

Lukas was 1-40 coming into this race? Damn...well...at least he won the big one.
And I had that 1...Strong Mandate at about 16-1...wait for it...making her 2nd start over the Sar dirt

[Tom]

Shug's horses coming back from Fai have been short.
Heard that on Byk this week. Gotta take a look at the db tonight and see the extent of it.

Did PM miss the break or what?

[redshift1]

Nothing happened like expected for the big three. Orb up close. Palace Malice almost last at the beginning. And Verrazano? He never ran. I don't think the distance had anything to with it. He never looked like he was going to win.


Verrazano struggling before the stretch, Moreno what a surprise, Saratoga a mystery to handicap.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I stupidly only played Moreno to win/place.Been that kind of day damnit!It was a doable exacta.

[lamboguy]

congratulations to Richie Dupass. he proves again and again how sharp he is no matter which rider he works for he wins with them. he has always ridden for Lucas.

[tonypp]

hero ride,thought he was pat day

[PaceAdvantage]

Verrazano looked washy as they passed the stands the first time...

[PaceAdvantage]

Lucas.Oy...

[cj]

Verrazano looked washy as they passed the stands the first time...

One of those horses that just doesn't handle big fields/races.

[Robert Fischer]

lol

There was a little girl
Who had a little curl
Right in the middle of her forehead.
And when she was good
She was very, very good
But when she was bad
She was horrid



Here I was wondering if Will Take Charge would ever try the turf...


Verrazano looked like a fraud today. He made his disappearing act in the Derby look a lot more legit than an excuse.

[Grits]

I like the # 5 in this spot for a wp, GL everybody
TD

You did very well! Good. I'm pleased for you!! ;)

[cj]

Oy...

It has to be intentional.

[PhantomOnTour]

Wonder how the in-race betting went on Betfair with PM blowing the start and Moreno cruising in :48 and change.

[wiffleball whizz]

I stupidly only played Moreno to win/place.Been that kind of day damnit!It was a doable exacta.

Yeah saw your post and wad hoping u got creative with a wheel job or key in 2nd slot.,...either way good job having it or at least part of it

[Stillriledup]

Verrazano looked washy as they passed the stands the first time...

I hated him warming up, made a large play against him, but failed to include Moreno. Such is life. :(

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yeah saw your post and wad hoping u got creative with a wheel job or key in 2nd slot.,...either way good job having it or at least part of it

After being 1 for my last 11 at Toga,3 small cashes,and my lone win at Arlington getting DQ'd last week I'm a little brain warped and slightly conservative!But thanks man!I'm sitting here smoking a cigarette ears burning and face flush with embarrassment,seriously!:D

[Shelby]

Saratoga has officially kicked my ass. I put $50 to win on Moreno. Tough beat for me...but I am glad the coach won.

[PhantomOnTour]

After being 1 for my last 11 at Toga,3 small cashes,and my lone win at Arlington getting DQ'd last week I'm a little brain warped and slightly conservative!But thanks man!I'm sitting here smoking a cigarette ears burning and face flush with embarrassment,seriously!:D
$25.40 to place ain't too bad though...you could have whiffed like almost everyone else who posted in this thread.
I know Mike Moreno and still didn't bet his horse :bang:

[Longshot6977]

I didn't like :2: or :3: or :8: with those low prices and needed some value. But I liked the finish in the Jim Dandy with :5: and :6: coming in 2nd and 3rd and their big odds today. Didn't think PM would win again today and didn't like his price, so I boxed just :5: and :6: . Got lucky today with that thinking.:jump:

[Grits]

Moreno is going to get blown up and lose by a mile, he's never even been close to carrying 126 against real horses and going wire to wire under pressure from monsters at a mile and a quarter is asking a lot. Ego got the best of Guillot and owners here, this is how you can ruin a nice horse. With one dimensional front runner types, you have to be more careful managing them than managing one dimensional closers..if a horse like this gets blown up and loses by 40 lengths, that's not what you want to see..if Moreno gets passed on the far turn, he's not hitting the board and he's going to be eased in the lane.

SRU, you left Moreno out, I guess, because you wrote THIS about 5 pages back? I love it when you teach me something. :lol:

That second place purse money ain't gonna be bad.

[TexasDolly]

You did very well! Good. I'm pleased for you!! ;)

Thank you Grits, sometimes things work out okay.
TD

[mostpost]

I am still not convinced the distance did Verrazano in, but I do think CJ may have had a valid point. The horse does not like to run in a crowd.

If he were mine, I would tell the jockey to take him to the front and let the chips fall where they may.

[Stillriledup]

I am still not convinced the distance did Verrazano in, but I do think CJ may have had a valid point. The horse does not like to run in a crowd.

If he were mine, I would tell the jockey to take him to the front and let the chips fall where they may.

He also doesnt like to run at tracks where pre-race security is very tight. The 2 most "secure" races he ran in his career, he no showed.

[forced89]

I like the # 5 in this spot for a wp, GL everybody
TD

I bet Will Take Charge also. Just figured it was a wide open race and I remember watching him beat Oxbow at Oaklawn in February and Lukas saying he would be better later in the year after he had matured.

Just dumb luck, but a nice payoff nonetheless!!

[mostpost]

He also doesnt like to run at tracks where pre-race security is very tight. The 2 most "secure" races he ran in his career, he no showed.
But, of course, you are not implying there was chicanery involved. :rolleyes:

[Tom]

Palice Malice - looks great in his last three race figs.
We will talking about him all of October.


I know I will be. I'll be saying I would be betting the BC races if I had any money left after betting this miserable so and so of a horse. :mad: :lol:

[menifee]

I know I will be. I'll be saying I would be betting the BC races if I had any money left after betting this miserable so and so of a horse. :mad: :lol:

How was the horse suppose to close into that pace? That's not fair. I'm not saying he's the next Affirmed, but of this bunch, I think he is the best. That being said, I wouldn't touch any of these horses when they face elders.

[Stillriledup]

But, of course, you are not implying there was chicanery involved. :rolleyes:

No, of course not. It all had to do with the horse being "unsettled" and out of his normal routine. You know Pletcher and White Mercedes would never break the rules. ;)

[Tom]

How was the horse suppose to close into that pace? That's not fair. I'm not saying he's the next Affirmed, but of this bunch, I think he is the best. That being said, I wouldn't touch any of these horses when they face elders.
The point was, he was supposed to have to close into it. He was supposed to be on it.

[JustRalph]

Moreno got a gift when PMalice didn't show up. Soft fractions.

Serling has been screaming for a week that Verrazano was a fraud. He was right.

I sat on my hands and watched. After Pletcher pulled off the win with that nobody at 23-1 I was too disgusted to play anymore

[Fager Fan]

Moreno is going to get blown up and lose by a mile, he's never even been close to carrying 126 against real horses and going wire to wire under pressure from monsters at a mile and a quarter is asking a lot. Ego got the best of Guillot and owners here, this is how you can ruin a nice horse. With one dimensional front runner types, you have to be more careful managing them than managing one dimensional closers..if a horse like this gets blown up and loses by 40 lengths, that's not what you want to see..if Moreno gets passed on the far turn, he's not hitting the board and he's going to be eased in the lane.

I'm guessing you didn't get the exacta.

[Fager Fan]

Nothing happened like expected for the big three. Orb up close. Palace Malice almost last at the beginning. And Verrazano? He never ran. I don't think the distance had anything to with it. He never looked like he was going to win.

He's a head-case. Otherwise, he had everything as perfect as could be, and was moving just fine over the track. His best performances are when the competition's been weak.

[wiffleball whizz]

Just to validate cj's point Verrazano who ran a huge Haskell mth really isn't a intimate track.....there's tons of space between the track and grandstand and track is elevated over the people who are watching so a crowd won't get to a horse like at Saratoga where the crowd is on top of the horses...

I'll be cj's point man it's all good :lol: :lol:

And we all know the crowd situation when the big V won the wood.....I don't think they were exactly hanging from the rafters watching the race

[JustRalph]

Just watched the replay a couple of times. Palice Malice may have smashed his face into the gate just prior to the start. I have a feeling he was still seeing stars the entire trip

[Pine Tree Lane]

Mike Smith is unreal. Wtf was that ride.

What was he supposed to do? The ground broke under the horse's hind legs and he broke sideways. Should he have rushed him up 4 wide?

[jettroofer]

My Travers tickets:
$200WPS 8 (FU Orb)
$2tri 68/5683/1359
$2tri 1359/5683/68 (fu Orb)
$5EB 1568 ($313 ex w/ 10/1 over a 31/1...........wtf?)
$20w 6 (fu wtc)

Figured tri would have been similar if PM replace Orb. PM showed me he is what we thought when we backed him in the Belmont and the Dandy. He looked like he came it of the gate on practically upside down and the 9 cut him out of any chance to get up front forcing him back. He ran well in recovery to get up to a breath from show. This horse had a bad trip and still was there at the end.

[menifee]

What was he supposed to do? The ground broke under the horse's hind legs and he broke sideways. Should he have rushed him up 4 wide?

Oh goodness it was not that bad of a start. No he should not have rushed him up 4 wide. I understand the horse broke last. He could have moved him up on the back stretch. The horse had too much ground to gain when they turned for home. There was no way he was going to close into that pace. He didn't pass Moreno. You got to be kidding me.

[raybo]

I like the # 5 in this spot for a wp, GL everybody
TD

Nice pick!! I had him nowhere, like most others, and my shot at a good price got 2nd. Dang!!

[SharpCat]

Verazzano is a beast. He leaves this 3 year-old crop in his wake today.


Golden Soul and Transparent were no match for the mighty Verazzano. They should avoid that beast at all cost.

[raybo]

Golden Soul and Transparent were no match for the mighty Verazzano. They should avoid that beast at all cost.

I had V in the mix but not my top pick. The horse is a nice physical specimen, regardless of what you or anyone else here thinks or says. Is he a "super horse"? No, of course not! But he does impress me as being in the top 2-3 of this year's crop.

I had, in ranked order: 1 6 3 8 5 4 2 9 7, betting the top 4 of those at 7/2 or higher odds. 5 surprised me for sure! And V's disappearing act certainly surprised me, although I think the very slow pace screwed everything up, for most of the top horses in this field anyway.

[SharpCat]

I had V in the mix but not my top pick. The horse is a nice physical specimen, regardless of what you or anyone else here thinks or says. Is he a "super horse"? No, of course not! But he does impress me as being in the top 2-3 of this year's crop.

I had, in ranked order: 1 6 3 8 5 4 2 9 7, betting the top 4 of those at 7/2 or higher odds. 5 surprised me for sure! And V's disappearing act certainly surprised me, although I think the very slow pace screwed everything up, for most of the top horses in this field anyway.


No doubt he is a physical specimen. I think they would be better served to let VZ get in on early in his races. He's got a nice high cruising speed so let him use it. Let VZ run them into the ground like Holy Bull and Skip Away did.

[PaceAdvantage]

Verrazano is missing a vital component that Holy Bull and Skip Away had in spades...a little thing called heart...

[SharpCat]

Verrazano is missing a vital component that Holy Bull and Skip Away had in spades...a little thing called heart...


Can't argue with that. Personally i've never seen a horse show more heart than Holy Bull did in the 94 Travers. I just think there trying to be to cute with VZ. It's not to complicated let him roll.

[RXB]

Personally i've never seen a horse show more heart than Holy Bull did in the 94 Travers.

Here is the greatest performance ever by a pure frontrunner... and Slew lost, but it's still the greatest. The pace duel in this race makes the '94 Travers look like a walk in the park by comparison. 45 1/5 three-pronged duel in a 12f race on a track that wasn't playing particularly fast, and after Slew broke through the gate prior to the start. Incredible.

zZFr6N2lNY4

[iceknight]

Moreno got a gift when PMalice didn't show up. Soft fractions.

Serling has been screaming for a week that Verrazano was a fraud. He was right.

I sat on my hands and watched. After Pletcher pulled off the win with that nobody at 23-1 I was too disgusted to play anymore Verrazano did not put up any fight.... let us not forget (now).. (what I missed completely earlier).. that Moreno is sired by Ghostzapper.. Can't believe I missed that and discounted him after his last outing.. :bang:
I had wtc in the 1st spot and barely got there.. but I didnt give Moreno any shot at all :bang: :bang:

Whether VZ was a fraud or not.. he was not an 8/5 shot heck not even a 5/2 fav by any means... but you can't stop the public from betting on last race speed figs right?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Just a few of my personal notes to add for what it's worth.

-Orb-I thought ran a nice first race back.Tucked in on an ideal spot,up closer to the pace,made a move early in the stretch just faded.Not the first running style/type of horse that takes a while to get going,peaks,then fades.He's going to get better and be a factor this fall IMO.

-Moreno-has been nice to me.While my brain was scrambled and conservative by a short 3 day losing streak today and I missed the exacta,as PHantom pointed out 11-1 to place was not bad for a lone speed in a 19 x 1 race.When he first shipped east from Santa Anita he was shortening up from a 2 turn route to a shorter 1 turn route,had the top speed/pace figs,some newfound morning bullets over Belmont course,and was in another paceless race in a N1X.He paid 8-1 that day amazingly.

Stamina Ratings-After reading Helm's book in the winter and getting the Sire ratings this spring,I didn't completely know how I would use it in practice.While there are a ton of precocious horses at this competitive meet that don't always win,the early ratings have been useful for multirace wagers.Turf ratings overall for 1sters and lightly raced maidens have brought these races into a lot sharper focus.Plus 1st time turfers in other races where they figure fast enough and have turf pedigree have been rewarding.Surprisingly in marathon routes or turf marathons they haven't produced for me the biggest impact that they have had is the 3yo crop.Today was the latest example at least from who I bet perspective.In 5 of the last 6 Kentucky Derbies the sire/damsire stamina ratings have been no worse than 2-2(top being a 1-1)and that was I'll Have Another last year.Orb this year was a 2-1.The other winners were 2-1,1-1,2-1,3-1.The last being Big Brown,who towered over that crop.There were only 3 horses who qualified this year as a 1-1,2-1,2-2=Palace Malice and Golden Soul at 1-1 each and Orb at 2-1.That was the Derby winner and exacta,and Belmont winner.For me it was the derby clincher but dumbly I failed to do the ratings for the late entrants and missed the exacta.In addition to the track and probable pace today the clincher for me was Moreno's 1-1 stamina rating.While he lost it was a bet I would not have made a year ago.It makes Will Take Charge's race look better because his SI's were 2-3..In short while not of constant,everyday $ yield these ratings have their purpose IMO.

[TexasDolly]

Nice pick!! I had him nowhere, like most others, and my shot at a good price got 2nd. Dang!!

Thanks Raybo. We should have compared notes. WTC seems to have cut it a little close but I think it took all he had to beat
you at the wire . Hope you had the place ticket.
TD

[Tom]

Cincy, is that just in book form or is there a website/CD for the rating?
I used to use them but got tired of thumbing through the pages a bazillion times a day.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy, is that just in book form or is there a website/CD for the rating?
I used to use them but got tired of thumbing through the pages a bazillion times a day.

They have a variety of options Tom.I think for a year you can pay $100 and just print the ratings out.It's about 5 pages per card.Here's the link;

http://www.proghandicap.com/

BTW Woodbine is looking to add customers so they ponied up the dough to give anybody and everybody the products related to their track for free.A $400 value and ready to download.

I'm new to their stuff and will explore it step by step.I've got the Sire Ratings and Turf Trainer Stats and am looking forward to getting the Pedigree trainer Stats and then meets stats next.

[cj]

I'll be the first to admit I don't know all the ins and outs of the TimeformUS breeding rating, but I do know Will Take Charge was rated a perfect 100 yesterday. No other horse was above a 93.

[classhandicapper]

I went 5 deep in the race, didn't have Verrazano for a penny, and still managed to lose money on the race. :bang: Only having a small win/place bet on Moreno because of the way the track was playing saved a debacle.

I haven't changed my opinion of any of these horses much at all.

First, IMO, the track was tilted to inside speed.

1. Palice Malice was probably best, but was put at a significant disadvantage after he got off slowly and had to come wide. He didn't lose by much. So he probably would have won if he got off well etc...

2. Orb got a nice inside trip, ran well, but looked a little short off the freshening late in the stretch. That was a tough spot to come off the bench when the other horses had preps, but IMO he at least proved the Derby wasn't a fluke.

3. IMO the loose lead on that track helped carry Moreno the 10F (though he ran well on his own)

4. Will Take Charge ran very well in the Jim Dandy. The question I had (a question I personally thought was legitimate), was whether he could fire another "A" race like that. I didn't use him and that's why I blew the race, but he did.

5. Romansh ran OK and will probably continue getting better.

This is more or less exactly what I expected from Verrazano. That's why I keyed again him. Had I been wrong about him yesterday or had he benefited from the track and was a big favorite in the Classic, I honestly would have made one of the biggest bets of my life against him that day.

IMO, Verrazano has not looked like a 10F horse all along. His early figures suggested he liked going short. He did not look like a 10F horse in the Wood. He did not look like a 10F horse in The Derby. (Even though everyone got killed by the savage pace of the Derby, a really top horse would have hung around better than that. Palace Malice hung around better!) There was nothing in this horse's record that indicated he appreciated going longer.

To me, he has always looked like a a super fast miler that can go longer on talent and put up numbers in soft fields and with easy trips. But those are not the trips you get in Classic Grade 1 races. At the highest levels you are typically tested for stamina, reserve racing energy etc.... There are no easy trips. You have to earn position, repulse multiple bids etc... Classic races at Classic distances test CLASS. Quality speed can win, cheaper speed need not apply.

He may not have even fired his best shot yesterday. I assume some people think he bounced off the Haskell or that he benefited from different testing standards that day. But if he was mine, I wouldn't even consider the Classic. I'd consider the BC mile. IMO, that's where he belongs.

[VeryOldMan]

I'll be the first to admit I don't know all the ins and outs of the TimeformUS breeding rating, but I do know Will Take Charge was rated a perfect 100 yesterday. No other horse was above a 93.

Imminent test - Centring has a 100 v. Royal Delta's 89 in the Personal Ensign :)

[raybo]

Thanks Raybo. We should have compared notes. WTC seems to have cut it a little close but I think it took all he had to beat
you at the wire . Hope you had the place ticket.
TD

For sure!

No, I didn't have a place ticket. That old "win and place betting is a long term loser" thing keeps me from dipping into the place pools. Heck I didn't even bet to win prior to my latest foray into a win betting black box method! Nope, I had my top 4 ranked horses to win only, at 7/2 or higher odds (which of course did not include WTC, as the 5th ranked horse! :bang: ). I did not bet my usual superfecta because I felt there were too many win contenders and would result in ticket cost that was too high for the perceived value in such a wager. Good decision, if I say so myself!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll be the first to admit I don't know all the ins and outs of the TimeformUS breeding rating, but I do know Will Take Charge was rated a perfect 100 yesterday. No other horse was above a 93.

I'm not sure either and that goes for BRIS and Equibase too and even Tomlinson.Litfin influenced me to go down this road so I trusted his references to the Tomlinson ratings and the Helm reference.I still have plenty of work to do but it's exciting.I'm just learning the basic families and how it all ties in plus after x amount of years starting to remember runners,piqued my interest.

PS-How is everything going with the new venture CJ?You can PM me if that'd be better.You're still my go to guy man:ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I went 5 deep in the race, didn't have Verrazano for a penny, and still managed to lose money on the race. :bang: Only having a small win/place bet on Moreno because of the way the track was playing saved a debacle.

I haven't changed my opinion of any of these horses much at all.

First, IMO, the track was tilted to inside speed.

1. Palice Malice was probably best, but was put at a significant disadvantage after he got off slowly and had to come wide. He didn't lose by much. So he probably would have won if he got off well etc...

2. Orb got a nice inside trip, ran well, but looked a little short off the freshening late in the stretch. That was a tough spot to come off the bench when the other horses had preps, but IMO he at least proved the Derby wasn't a fluke.

3. IMO the loose lead on that track helped carry Moreno the 10F (though he ran well on his own)

4. Will Take Charge ran very well in the Jim Dandy. The question I had (a question I personally thought was legitimate), was whether he could fire another "A" race like that. I didn't use him and that's why I blew the race, but he did.

5. Romansh ran OK and will probably continue getting better.

This is more or less exactly what I expected from Verrazano. That's why I keyed again him. Had I been wrong about him yesterday or had he benefited from the track and was a big favorite in the Classic, I honestly would have made one of the biggest bets of my life against him that day.

IMO, Verrazano has not looked like a 10F horse all along. His early figures suggested he liked going short. He did not look like a 10F horse in the Wood. He did not look like a 10F horse in The Derby. (Even though everyone got killed by the savage pace of the Derby, a really top horse would have hung around better than that. Palace Malice hung around better!) There was nothing in this horse's record that indicated he appreciated going longer.

To me, he has always looked like a a super fast miler that can go longer on talent and put up numbers in soft fields and with easy trips. But those are not the trips you get in Classic Grade 1 races. At the highest levels you are typically tested for stamina, reserve racing energy etc.... There are no easy trips. You have to earn position, repulse multiple bids etc... Classic races at Classic distances test CLASS. Quality speed can win, cheaper speed need not apply.

He may not have even fired his best shot yesterday. I assume some people think he bounced off the Haskell or that he benefited from different testing standards that day. But if he was mine, I wouldn't even consider the Classic. I'd consider the BC mile. IMO, that's where he belongs.

I've said it before and will say it again,you're my brother from anotha mutha!Good breakdown Class.