How You Hanicap A Race

[chrisforbes]

Since I work at a racetrack and have working at 2 in the 25yrs in my 48 yrs on earth, I will be picking your brains several times ...on racing questions...

How do you go about handicapping a certain race. Do you just buy a program at the track your at or do you buy the Daily Racing Form? Before going to the track or OTB place, do you know what tracks your going to play? Do you play certain jockeys or trainers? Do you look at a all about a jockey coming in to ride out of town, figuring his/her would not be riding if they didn't think they have a shot? What kind of bets do you make?

Ok a lot of questions to answer and I'll be curious of your answers and maybe I'll write a book some day about Garden State Park and Parx...

Oh if you need a little eye candy when your not betting check out my photo site on jockey Maria Remedio...beside being a good jockey..she is easy on the eyes as well...

www.slickpic.com/u/mariaremedio

[Midnight Cruiser]

Since I work at a racetrack and have working at 2 in the 25yrs in my 48 yrs on earth, I will be picking your brains several times ...on racing questions...

How do you go about handicapping a certain race. Do you just buy a program at the track your at or do you buy the Daily Racing Form? Before going to the track or OTB place, do you know what tracks your going to play? Do you play certain jockeys or trainers? Do you look at a all about a jockey coming in to ride out of town, figuring his/her would not be riding if they didn't think they have a shot? What kind of bets do you make?

Ok a lot of questions to answer and I'll be curious of your answers and maybe I'll write a book some day about Garden State Park and Parx...

Oh if you need a little eye candy when your not betting check out my photo site on jockey Maria Remedio...beside being a good jockey..she is easy on the eyes as well...

www.slickpic.com/u/mariaremedio

Thumbs up!

[Stillriledup]

Since I work at a racetrack and have working at 2 in the 25yrs in my 48 yrs on earth, I will be picking your brains several times ...on racing questions...

How do you go about handicapping a certain race. Do you just buy a program at the track your at or do you buy the Daily Racing Form? Before going to the track or OTB place, do you know what tracks your going to play? Do you play certain jockeys or trainers? Do you look at a all about a jockey coming in to ride out of town, figuring his/her would not be riding if they didn't think they have a shot? What kind of bets do you make?

Ok a lot of questions to answer and I'll be curious of your answers and maybe I'll write a book some day about Garden State Park and Parx...

Oh if you need a little eye candy when your not betting check out my photo site on jockey Maria Remedio...beside being a good jockey..she is easy on the eyes as well...

www.slickpic.com/u/mariaremedio

Nobody here just plays humans, they're a small handicapping factor, but we arent going to make wagers based on the rider or trainer. In fact, its more likely we will specifically bet against "top human connections" because the price on those horses is too low, you get value on quality horses with 'lesser known" connections.

A jockey coming in from out of town to ride would just be, possibly, a small advantage if you really liked the horse. Also, it depends on the mount and the situation, but i probably wouldnt give that "angle" all that much of a 2nd look. Lets say a Parx shipper showed up at Saratoga on one of Parx's dark days and the horse was "followed" to the Spa by the local rider. If i liked the horse, i wouldnt downgrade the horse if those local connections were able to secure Rosario or Castellano to ride, to me, that might be more important than if the local jock was coming for the mount. You can look at it both ways.

[Robert Goren]

It is hard to beat a hot jockey and in my experience jockeys seldom stay hot overnight.

[pondman]

How do you go about handicapping a certain race. Do you just buy a program at the track your at or do you buy the Daily Racing Form? Before going to the track or OTB place, do you know what tracks your going to play? Do you play certain jockeys or trainers? Do you look at a all about a jockey coming in to ride out of town, figuring his/her would not be riding if they didn't think they have a shot? What kind of bets do you make?

I know what interest me through Saturday evening-- my handicapping is done a few days prior--- I'm just waiting on the crowd to see how they'll play.

Don't follow any trainers or jockeys. I do keep an eye on breeders.

If the horse is shipping in, I would prefer it be ridden by someone who knows the horse. It's probably a better value if it's a morning rider. And often the super jockey hasn't touché the horse before.

Can't help you with parx. I've had too many people-- jockey, trainers, owners-- tell me to stay away from the place.

[RunForTheRoses]

In theory I would handicap the races the night before or at least early in the moring the day of using DRF Formulator and some other sources, maybe scan some race replays. In reality (most of the time, btw I'm only a Weekend Warrior, have a job M-F) I might by the Form at the OTB, Track or download from internet at LRD (Living Room Downs) right when the races are going off.
I really only play NYRA and SoCal for the most part, Gulfstream in the winter and sometimes Oaklawn and Fair Grounds too in winter (do best then with AQI, GP, and SA, tend to do horrible this time of year and 2013 has been no exception). Might take a look at Monmouth, NoCal, and Emerald if things are going well and feel energetic.

[RunForTheRoses]

Definitely trainer aware, totally. Would prefer a good trainer who uses a low win but competent jockey. That said sometimes you can't ignore the live mounts someone like Bejrano gets.

[rubicon55]

Since I work at a racetrack and have working at 2 in the 25yrs in my 48 yrs on earth, I will be picking your brains several times ...on racing questions...

How do you go about handicapping a certain race. Do you just buy a program at the track your at or do you buy the Daily Racing Form? Before going to the track or OTB place, do you know what tracks your going to play? Do you play certain jockeys or trainers? Do you look at a all about a jockey coming in to ride out of town, figuring his/her would not be riding if they didn't think they have a shot? What kind of bets do you make?

Ok a lot of questions to answer and I'll be curious of your answers and maybe I'll write a book some day about Garden State Park and Parx...

Oh if you need a little eye candy when your not betting check out my photo site on jockey Maria Remedio...beside being a good jockey..she is easy on the eyes as well...

www.slickpic.com/u/mariaremedio

There is an old joke that my capper friends used to say back in the day about how a race unfolds - harder to say this nowadays with all the technical info available, this was when people bet their birthdays, astrological lucky numbers, etc.

In any given race:

1. The owner knows more than the public.
2. The trainer knows more than the owner.
2. The jockey knows more than the trainer.
3. Finally, the horse knows more than the trainer.

Based on this tongue in cheek info, focus on the horse first. LOL.

[Stillriledup]

Definitely trainer aware, totally. Would prefer a good trainer who uses a low win but competent jockey. That said sometimes you can't ignore the live mounts someone like Bejrano gets.

You get crushed pricewise if you go for the "good trainer". A plecher or a baffert will be more overbet than a Rosario or a Castellano. Once that gate opens, the man or woman who's name is on the paper as listed trainer has 0 influence on the race yet, you're paying a premium for the privilege of "name recognition".

[Stillriledup]

There is an old joke that my capper friends used to say back in the day about how a race unfolds - harder to say this nowadays with all the technical info available, this was when people bet their birthdays, astrological lucky numbers, etc.

In any given race:

1. The owner knows more than the public.
2. The trainer knows more than the owner.
2. The jockey knows more than the trainer.
3. Finally, the horse knows more than the trainer.

Based on this tongue in cheek info, focus on the horse first. LOL.

I feel that handicappers who don't know who the fastest horse is will defer to the humans. If you have all the horses in the race "Rated properly" you don't really need to factor in humans.

In the 2nd race today at the Spa, if you didnt know that Tanglewood Tale was a better horse than Nothing But Air, you might have "trusted" Ortiz that he picked the right runner. If you had a strong opinion that TT was the better animal, you might have been happy the jock "picked against" so you can get a little more value.

[Maximillion]

I feel that handicappers who don't know who the fastest horse is will defer to the humans. If you have all the horses in the race "Rated properly" you don't really need to factor in humans.

In the 2nd race today at the Spa, if you didnt know that Tanglewood Tale was a better horse than Nothing But Air, you might have "trusted" Ortiz that he picked the right runner. If you had a strong opinion that TT was the better animal, you might have been happy the jock "picked against" so you can get a little more value.

I agree with you but with a caveat......a "claim" often renders this type of analysis irrelevant.I wish it wasnt so.

[rubicon55]

I feel that handicappers who don't know who the fastest horse is will defer to the humans. If you have all the horses in the race "Rated properly" you don't really need to factor in humans.

In the 2nd race today at the Spa, if you didnt know that Tanglewood Tale was a better horse than Nothing But Air, you might have "trusted" Ortiz that he picked the right runner. If you had a strong opinion that TT was the better animal, you might have been happy the jock "picked against" so you can get a little more value.

SRU hopefully you recogonized was just joking, actually I might concur with that thinking regarding "better" jockeys when all things are equal depending on if the jockey was proficient at that distance, purse, surface etc. I found that you can't rely on just the basic overall percentages. I would be interested more in the jockey agents perspective since they get the rides for their clients and not the jockeys.

[RunForTheRoses]

You get crushed pricewise if you go for the "good trainer". A plecher or a baffert will be more overbet than a Rosario or a Castellano. Once that gate opens, the man or woman who's name is on the paper as listed trainer has 0 influence on the race yet, you're paying a premium for the privilege of "name recognition".

I was thinking of a good trainer like a Ron Ellis or a Graham Motion rather than a super Trainer. More trainer analysis such as Gary Sciacca with Turf Runners, Richard Baltas in general, etc.

[Pensacola Pete]

Numbers, neither, yes, no, no, win and horizontal.

[Segwin]

Can't help you with parx. I've had too many people-- jockey, trainers, owners-- tell me to stay away from the place.

I thought the same (actually from a post I made here) but Parx has been very good to me. OTOH Sar has been very unkind.

On any given Sunday.

[dkithore]

How do you go about handicapping a certain race.

www.slickpic.com/u/mariaremedio (http://www.slickpic.com/u/mariaremedio)

as a paper and pencil handicapper, this is the order I follow to handicap a race:

1. Mark the running style of each horse (E/P/S) and get a sense of how the race will run today. Front half vs. the back half of the herd.

2. The a quick check on who belongs at this class level?

3. who has the speed and can compete at this level. (Related to pint 2.)

5. I keep track profile to guide me whether winners come from the front half or the back half. Often it is not clear cut advantage to either. Then I select one from early and one entry from the late pace. Admittedly, it does not work out that way but I try.

4. BY now if half the field is not eliminated then I know the race outcome is far from certain as the race may be contentious. I tend to look for price and a small investment. More like action bets.

5. Odds: I look for my sweet spots 5-15 in most cases on turf with 10 plus entries. I know the win odds at track where I play is 5-1. But I seldom bet a horse that is 4-1 and below.

I hope that helps.

[Overlay]

Rather than looking exclusively for the one horse that is most likely to win, or narrowing down a field through a process of elimination, I evaluate all the entrants through weighted rankings based on how they compare to each other with respect to factors such as class, condition, speed, running style, distance, surface, and rider. This allows me to develop a composite probability for each horse that can then be compared to odds or probable payoffs for purposes of detecting betting value (wherever in the field it may be present), and making play/pass and wager-sizing decisions.

[ElKabong]

Live racing - I just show up with BRIS condensed pp's and try to spot a ready & fit horse. No pre race study nowdays (for live racing), just go by the basics of handicapping if I spot a good looking horse..... Won't bet a bad jock or a poor trainer unless that horse has had some success with the connections.....Bet to win / place and won't accept less than 7-2....get only 1 or 2 bets a card, 3 at the most but very profitable this way

problem is, the local track only runs for 3 months.... :ThmbDown: